ASTROS @ TWINS
May 29-31, 2017

My dad is a veteran, drafted away from his white-collar job to join the Army in the latter years of Vietnam.  He didn’t want to join the military – he says the day the letter came in the mail was one of the worst days of his life – and lucked out with one deferment, but his number eventually came up.  Being in the Army is an indelible part of his life: my oldest sister was born on base at Fort Bliss.

Dad doesn’t see himself as a veteran so he doesn’t talk about it much, although we have heard some stories.  He told us about how he was given advice to blend into the crowd and not stand out (good or bad), but was randomly chosen to be a squad leader within a half-hour of reporting for duty.  He also had strep throat and a 103F fever during basic training but didn’t dare tell anyone about it.  He heard the phrase “your ass is grass and I’m a lawnmower” for the first time from his drill sergeant.

Fortunately, he was never shipped overseas, got transferred to an electronics unit, and was eventually honorably discharged as the war drew down.  Dad was one of the lucky ones, but many haven’t been so lucky.  A friend of mine died while serving in the Middle East, and I have other friends in and out of the military who know plenty of others who died while serving this country.

May we never forget those who make the ultimate sacrifice so that we can bitch about baseball from behind our keyboards.

What happened in the last series?

The Astros (35-16) capped off a 6-4 homestand by sweeping the Orioles and stretching their division lead to ten games.  Charlie Morton now stands to miss significant time with a lat strain, which should only increase the pressure on Luhnow to trade for some starting pitching.

The Twins (26-20) are baseball’s early worst-to-first story, leading their division less than a year removed from a 103-loss season.  They’re a fairly unspectacular bunch: they have a +1 run differential and are pretty average in many pitching and offensive categories.  They kind of resemble the early 2015 Astros: great on the road (14-5), not so great at home (12-15).

Schedule/Probables

In the interest of time and an assortment of meat currently on my grill, I’m only going to hit on the Twins pitchers here (NTTAWWT).

Monday, May 29 – 1:10pm CDT
Brad Peacock (2-0, 0.87) vs. Ervin Santana (7-2, 1.80)

Santana has been eating innings with the best of them (no starts of less than six innings), and aside from a couple of meh starts against the BoSox and Rockies he has looked every bit the part of an ace.  He has not faced the Astros since 2015, when he went 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and racked up 21 strikeouts.

Tuesday, May 30 – 7:10pm CDT
Mike Fiers (1-2, 5.21) vs. Jose Berrios (3-0, 1.66)

After a 2016 season in which he clocked an 8+ ERA, Berrios has made three starts, all of them of the quality variety.  He went 1-1 with an 8.59 ERA against Houston last season.

Wednesday, May 31 – 12:10pm CDT
Joe Musgrove (4-4, 4.89) vs. Hector Santiago (4-4, 4.31)

Santiago is almost always good for about three runs a start this year.  Last year he was 0-1 against the Astros with a 3.86 ERA.

ORIOLES @ ASTROS
May 26-28, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Orioles (25-20) just got swept by the Twins at home and have lost nine of their last 12.  They’re not particularly good on the road, with a 10-13 record away from Camden Yards.

Meanwhile, the Astros (32-16) were able to wash out a little bit of the bad taste from the Indians sweep, taking three of four from the Tigers in sometimes-ugly fashion.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, May 26 – 7:10pm CDT
Kevin Gausman (2-3, 6.65) vs. Joe Musgrove (3-4, 5.63)

More like Kevin Gascan, amirite???  Gausman is prone to getting lit up, with a WHIP of 1.86 and having had several starts where he’s allowed 4-5 runs or more.  He’s done better of late, though, with quality starts against the Blue Jays and Nationals.  He had a 6.17 ERA against the Astros last season despite racking up 15 K’s in two starts.

Musgrove would almost certainly like to have back his disastrous start against the Indians.  The O’s may not be the best team to rebound against: last year he gave up eight runs in 5.1 innings in Baltimore.

Saturday, May 27 – 6:15pm CDT
Wade Miley (1-2, 2.59) vs. Dallas Keuchel (7-0, 1.84)

Miley has been one of the better Orioles starters this year, at times times able to work deep into games (three starts of seven or more innings).  He’s been haunted by allowing walks, though, with five starts where he’s allowed four or more free passes.  Only his 49 K’s keep his K:BB ratio anywhere close to respectability.  The Astros faced him three times in 2016 and hung a 6.28 ERA on him.

This will be Keuchel’s first start back from the DL, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a relatively low pitch count.  I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a very effective outing anyway; he pitched eight innings of 2-run ball against the O’s last season.

Sunday, May 28 – 1:10pm CDT
Ubaldo Jimenez (1-2, 7.17) vs. Lance McCullers, Jr. (5-1, 2.43)

Look for the Waldo family behind the Astros bullpen in this one.  Or don’t.

Jimenez has been the worst regular starter for Baltimore in 2017.  Outside of a relief appearance and a two-hitter he took into the 8th against the Reds, he’s been tagged with four or more earned runs in every other appearance he’s had this year.

McCullers, of course, had a fantastic outing against the Tigers, giving up the only hit in the combined one-hitter on Tuesday.  He has been outstanding against the O’s through his short career, with a 2-0 record, 1.29 ERA, and 21(!) strikeouts in two starts.

INDIANS @ ASTROS
May 19-21, 2017

The Astros kick off a 10-game homestand against the Indians, Tigers, and Orioles.  After spending much of the month of May pounding sub-.500 teams, they’re also starting a stretch of 22 out of 26 games against teams that are, at the time of this writing, at or above .500 on the season.

What happened in the last series?

Cleveland (20-19) dropped a midweek series to the Rays and come to Houston having lost three straight series.  They are 8-10 since taking two of three from the Astros in April.  Their bullpen is still excellent, but their starters have nudged a little worse since we last saw them: with a starters ERA of 5.15, only the Reds are worse, and 18 losses from the rotation (T-2nd worst in MLB) show that the team isn’t digging out of very many holes their starters dig them.

That could be a problem when they’re facing an Astros team that has gotten better at scoring earlier in games.  Since their trip to Cleveland, Houston (29-12) has turned into a rolling ball of knives, going 15-4 and coming off a sweep of a listless Marlins team in Miami.  They start the weekend with a 7.5 game division lead over those fuckers in the metroplex.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, May 19 – 7:10pm CDT
Trevor Bauer (3-4, 6.92) vs. Charlie Morton (5-2, 3.97)

The Astros got their only win of the season series against Bauer, scoring four runs in six innings.  He has continued to struggle with consistency: the Tigers lit him up for seven runs on May 1, and he still has not allowed fewer than two runs in a game.

Morton racked up ten K’s against the Yanks and he has wins in four straight starts.  The Cleveland lineup is full of small sample sizes (NTTAWWT) against Morton; those who faced him did so in his only career start against the Indians in 2015, when he lost a quality start.  But, for what it’s worth, they are a combined .118/.250/.118 against him.

Saturday, May 20 – 3:10pm CDT
Mike Clevinger (1-1, 2.61) vs. Mike Fiers (1-1, 5.75)

Clevinger came up from the minors when Corey Kluber went on the DL and has made two starts and one relief appearance.  Don’t let his ERA fool you… there’s some potential here.  In his first start he tossed 5.2 shutout innings against an awful Kansas City lineup that is dead last in many offensive categories.  Then he got pulled in the 5th inning after allowing three runs to a Twins lineup that isn’t much better at scoring runs.  Between those two starts he has walked nine batters.

All things considered, Fiers actually didn’t do that bad against the Yankees and was in line for a win before Harris and Devenski went supernova.  Too bad.

Oddly enough, this is a repeat of a matchup between the Astros and Indians in Cleveland last September.  Clevinger got the start as the Tribe deployed a starter-by-committee approach for the game.  The Astros scratched out a run in the first on Clevinger and went on to win 6-2, with Fiers picking up his 10th win after five innings of two-run ball.  It was also Fiers’s second win against the Indians last season, having held them to one run over seven innings earlier in the year.

Sunday, May 21 – 1:10pm CDT
Danny Salazar (2-4, 5.66) vs. Joe Musgrove (3-3, 4.57)

Like Bauer, Salazar has struggled with consistency (the good kind, at least).  He’s usually good for 5-6 innings and about three runs per start, although he’s allowed five runs in consecutive starts and just gave up a Fiersian four home runs to the Rays.  He did have a good outing against the Astros last year, working five innings while allowing a run and striking out ten.  That game turned into the 16-inning marathon the Astros ended up winning.

Musgrove fell one out short of back-to-back quality starts, holding the Marlins to one run over 5.2 innings.  He has not yet pitched against the Indians.

ASTROS @ MARLINS
May 15-17, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Astros took three of four from the Yankees in The House that Dallas Built on Derek Jeter Schlongfest Weekend, making an emphatic (if early) statement about the pecking order in the American League.  Mike Fiers wasn’t even completely terrible, although the bullpen deserves some ridicule for allowing ten runs in Sunday’s doubleheader.  That said, the Yanks are a good team, easily the best the Astros have played to date.

The Marlins, however, will be one of the worst teams the Astros have played.  They have dropped six straight series and are just 4-14 during that span.  That’s not even against good teams, either: five of those series losses were against teams that are currently under .500.  Their bullpen isn’t all that bad, although they have only converted four out of their ten save opportunities (second worst rate in MLB).  Their starting rotation is particularly terrible, with the third-worst ERA, second-fewest innings pitched, and most walks allowed in MLB.  Coupled with an offense that is average or slightly worse, it’s easy to see how this team is 14-22.

Schedule/Probables

Monday, May 15 – 6pm CDT
Joe Musgrove (2-3, 5.02) vs. Dan Straily (1-3, 4.03)

Musgrove’s quality start against the Braves was his second such outing of the year.  He has not faced a single Marlins hitter.

“Dan Straily” and “top-of-rotation starter” aren’t necessarily things you expect to hear in the same sentence, but if the shoe fits…?  Straily was quietly a 4.3 WAR pitcher for the Reds in 2016, turning in career lows in ERA (3.76) and WHIP (1.19).  He’s actually notched the WHIP down even further this year, currently owning a 1.08 WHIP in seven starts.  In his last start he held the Cardinals to one run over seven innings, only to have the bullpen barf up the lead.

Tuesday, May 16 – 6:10pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (6-0, 1.69) vs. Tom Koehler (1-1, 5.60)

Keuchel has never faced the Marlins, but those with ABs against him have only managed one extra-base hit and a .603 OPS.

Koehler has been a decent MOR starter for the Marlins in recent years.  In his best season (2014) he averaged about six innings per start and turned in a 3.81 ERA.  His innings have been on the decline since then (he’s now averaging only five innings per start), which may be the biggest reason his ERA has risen.  He has allowed at least three runs in all of his last six starts.

Wednesday, May 17 – 11:10am CDT
Lance McCullers, Jr. (3-1, 2.98) vs. Jose Urena (1-1, 1.98)

McCullers’s outing against the Yankees last Friday was his best, throwing six scoreless hittings while walking none and punching out seven.

I’m going to try to write this section while trying to ignore the fact that “Urena” sounds like a reproductive organ.  He has split time between starting and relief work throughout his brief career with the Marlins, and he’s never been particularly good at either (6.13 combined ERA in 2016).  It’s been a bit of a different story this year, and after some early long relief outings he was moved into the rotation when Wei-Yin Chen went on the DL last week.  Urena’s two starts have both been quality starts, including six innings of one-hit shutout ball against the Mets.  Despite being a hard thrower (his fastballs can touch 98-99) he doesn’t have dazzling strikeout numbers; he has a pedestrian 2:1 K:BB ratio this season, and even less for his career.

ASTROS @ YANKEES
May 11-14, 2017

It’s without a doubt the Astros’ highest-profile series so far: the American League’s two best teams duke it out in the Bronx for four games, up to three (and no fewer than two) of which will be nationally televised.

What happened in the last series?

The Yanks are coming off an unusual Wednesday off-day after splitting a two-game series in Cincinnati.  They are hot, winning 10 of their last 13, and they own baseball’s second-best home record at 12-3.  They are tops in the AL in runs scored (Astros are 2nd) and tops in MLB in run differential (Astros are 4th).  Their rotation trends pretty average overall, although they’ve allowed the second-fewest walks in baseball.  The bullpen, though, has MLB’s 3rd-best ERA and lowest opponent OPS.  If the Astros need a late rally in any of these games, they will need to do better than they did against another elite bullpen (Cleveland).

The Astros took care of business in a two-game series against the Braves.  To counter NYY’s second-best home record in MLB, the Astros are the AL’s second-best road team at 9-5.

Schedule/Probables

Thursday, May 11 – 6:05pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (5-0, 1.88) vs. Michael Pineda (3-1, 3.12)

MLB Network has picked this up as their Showcase game.

Keuchel looked to be coasting to another complete game against the Angels before an unfortunate 9th inning shot both the CG and a winning decision.  However, he has enjoyed Steinbrenner-grade ownership of the Yankees in recent years, even in New York: including the 2015 Wild Card Game, he is 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA and a 0.750 WHIP(!) in Yankee Stadium since 2014.

Pineda is off to a better start than his ERA would indicate: his 0.98 WHIP doesn’t lag far behind Keuchel’s, and his gaudy 43:5 K:BB ratio is the second best in MLB.  His ERA is also skewed from his first outing of the season, when he lasted only 3.2 innings and gave up four runs; he has a 2.32 ERA in his five starts since.  Houston has not had much trouble scoring runs off Pineda recently, giving him a 5.18 ERA in four starts against the Astros since 2015.  Correa and Springer both have two bombs off of him, and five Astros hitters have a 1.000+ OPS against him.

Friday, May 12 – 6:05pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (2-1, 3.40) vs. Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 3.81)

McCullers had a fantastic two-hit outing against the Angels last Saturday, spoiled only by an early unearned run and a bullshit soft-contact rally against the bullpen in the bottom of the 9th.  He faced the Yankees once last season, holding them to one run over six innings while punching out ten.

The rookie southpaw Montgomery has been a pretty steady presence in the Yankees rotation since his callup during the first week of the season, and is usually good for about six innings and 2-3 earned runs.  He brings a five-pitch arsenal that includes two- and four-seam fastballs in the low-90s, low/mid-80s changeup with sinking action, mid-80s slider, and high-70s curve.  He split time between AA and AAA in 2016, going a combined 14-5 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.199 WHIP, and throughout his minor league career his LHB/RHB splits have been roughly equivalent.

Saturday, May 13 – 12:05pm CDT
Mike Fiers (1-1, 5.64) vs. Luis Severino (2-2, 3.40)

MLB Network will carry this game unless the Mariners and Blue Jays look more attractive.  As bad as the Blue Jays are, I won’t judge.

I was hoping that Monday’s off-game would grant us a Fiers-free series, but I guess they can’t hide him in the dugout forever.  Fiers is still really bad (good?) at the long ball, still tied for the MLB lead in home runs allowed.  He faced the Yankees once last year and gave up five runs on nine hits in five innings.

Severino has been eating innings early, with four starts of seven or more innings.  His performances have alternated between good/great and meh, and he has lacked run support in the meh starts: the Yankees have lost all of his starts when he allows three or more runs.  The Astros have only faced him once, in two scoreless relief innings last year in a game the Astros won.  

Sunday, May 14 – 6:30pm CDT
Charlie Morton (4-2, 3.63) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (5-1, 4.36)

If the start time didn’t give it away, this is ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball game.

Morton has put together some pretty decent back-to-back starts against the Rangers and Braves, falling just one out short of a quality start against the latter.  He hasn’t faced the Yankees since 2014, but one player in particular to watch out for is Starlin Castro: dating back to both of their stints in the National League, Castro is 12×27 with three home runs lifetime against Morton.

After a terrible first start on Opening Day, Tanaka has largely gotten things under control and has racked up five straight wins in as many starts.  That said, it’s kind of bizarre that the Astros have had good success against him throughout his career: he is 0-1 with a 6.89 ERA in three games against Houston, his second-worst ERA against any team, and the Astros’ .913 OPS against him is his worst allowed to any team.  

BRAVES @ ASTROS
May 9-10, 2017

Here’s a quick two-game homestand between former NLDS rivals before heading to the east coast to face the Yanks and Fish.  The Astros haven’t played the Braves since 2014.

What happened in the last series?

The Braves just got swept in their house by the Turds and have lost six of their last seven.  At 11-18 they are in last place in the NL East and only the Giants, Royals, and Blue Jays have worse records.  As such, it’s hard to find anything that they do well: their team ERA is 0.01 runs away from MLB-worst (when broken out between starters and relievers, both are comfortably bottom-third), and while their team batting average is good they are at or below average in most other offensive categories.

The Astros put the bow on another series win last weekend.  The sweep has eluded them this year, and in particularly annoying ways, but I don’t think anyone can complain too much about winning eight out of ten series so far this year.  

Schedule/Probables

Tuesday, May 9 – 7:10pm CDT
Bartolo Colon (1-3, 6.27) vs. Charlie Morton (3-2, 3.97)

Colon is undefeated at Minute Maid Park, but this may be the year to ruin that streak.  He has given up hits and runs in bunches (5+ runs allowed in half of his starts) and is having trouble consistently working deep into games.  His best start of the season came against the offensive powerhouse of San Diego (T-25th in runs scored), but since then he’s gotten rocked for 15 runs on 29 hits in his last 16 innings.  He hasn’t really lost any velocity on any of his pitches from previous seasons, although his location has drifted to the outer edges of the plate instead of staying in the middle of the strike zone.  Beltran (.277/.346/.596, 4 HR) and Altuve (.412/.412/.529) have both hit well against him.

Morton had a very good outing against the Rangers and has benefited from plenty of run support recently.  A career National Leaguer, he has played the Braves a number of times and is 2-0 against them since 2014 despite a 5.73 ERA.

Wednesday, May 10 – 1:10pm CDT
Jaime Garcia (1-1, 3.99) vs. Joe Musgrove (1-3, 5.40)

Fun fact!  Garcia was the Cardinals starting pitcher in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series that the Rangers lost in excruciating fashion.  Since then he has missed significant time with shoulder issues and thoracic outlet syndrome, but has been pretty solid in his first year with the Bravos.  He comes to Houston having thrown three straight quality starts and has pitching through the 6th inning in all but one game this season.  He has been issuing a lot of walks, though, and his current 17:13 K:BB ratio is well off his roughly 3:1 career pace.

Musgrove had a rough go in his last outing, spotting the Rangers a 5-1 lead after two innings.