ASTROS @ MARINERS
September 4-6, 2017

Magic Numbers (games as of 9/3)

To clinch AL West: 13
To clinch AL top seed: 24

What happened in the last series?

The Astros (83-53) broke out the brooms against the lowly Mets.  Correa returned from injury and drove in a run.  Justin Verlander made some new friends.

Similarly, the Mariners (69-68) snapped a five-game losing streak by sweeping the A’s at home.

Schedule/Probables

Monday, September 4 – 5:40pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (11-3, 2.91) vs. Erasmo Ramirez (5-5, 4.43)

After three quality starts in a row, Keuchel got roughed up by the Rangers for six runs in Tampa.  He hasn’t faced the Mariners since Opening Day, when he held them to seven scoreless innings.

Ramirez was acquired from Tampa Bay by the Mariners a few days before the non-waiver trade deadline and has done a mix of starting and bullpen work this season.  As a starter he’s 4-4 with a 4.94 ERA and .797 OPS allowed, but that ERA drops to 3.62 as a Mariner as four of his six August starts were quality starts.  He has not faced the Astros this year and only pitched two innings of relief against them last year, but in 2015 he won both of his starts against Houston with a 2.31 ERA.

Tuesday, September 5 – 9:10pm CDT
Justin Verlander (10-8, 3.82) vs. Ariel Miranda (8-6, 4.85)

As has been well documented, Verlander has been on a roll since the All-Star break: in ten starts since then he’s got a 2.41 ERA, with six starts of seven or more innings and just one start of less than six innings.  Verlander has also had success against the M’s this season, with a 2.13 ERA and 19(!) strikeouts in two starts.

Miranda has only pitched a full six innings once since June and lately has struggled to even last five innings.  Most recently, against the Orioles, he was bounced during the 5th inning after giving up six runs on four taters.  This season he is 0-2 with a 5.70 ERA in two starts against Houston.

Wednesday, September 6 – 9:10pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (7-3, 3.92) vs. Mike Leake (8-12, 4.14)

McCullers is back from the DL and making his first start in over a month.  He’s done well against the Mariners this year (2-0, 3.45 ERA in three starts) but honestly, it’s anybody’s guess how well he will do after a 9.64 ERA in the month of July.

Leake is a recent acquisition for the Mariners, coming over in a waiver deal from the Cardinals last week.  His first start for the Hags was a good one, allowing two runs to the A’s over seven innings.  He hasn’t pitched against the Astros since 2014.

METS @ ASTROS
September 2-3, 2017

Living in Austin, the worst I got from Hurricane Harvey was some tall weeds that need to be mowed tomorrow.  I won’t claim to truly understand what so many have experienced the last week.  I have also never lived a day in any of the affected areas, so the following claims of emotional connections to those areas may seem trite.  That is not my intent.

My feelings for Houston should be fairly obvious.  I’ve been making the pilgrimage to H-Town for Astros games for over 2/3 of my life, with a number of memorable family trips to AstroWorld mixed in.  I still look back fondly on attending several games with my first girlfriend, even though things didn’t work out.  I’ve played softball with many of you assholes at Memorial Park.  I have two cousins in Houston and, fortunately for them, they weren’t affected beyond being unable to go anywhere.  For all that my words are worth, I hope that those of you in Houston that were inconvenienced or displaced by Harvey can get your lives back in order as easily as possible.

Port Aransas has been a ritualistic vacation destination for our family for decades.  My kids and my sister’s kids have grown up looking forward to each and every beach trip, and a lot of great memories have been made there.  It’s looking for all the world like we’ll be scrubbing our planned trip there at the end of the month, but we’ll be back as soon as we’re able so we can support the businesses there.

Most of all, although the extended Waldo family reaches from coast to coast and all points in between, we have very deep roots in the Golden Triangle.  Some 80 years ago my grandparents settled in Groves, and a few years later my grandfather built the house my dad grew up in.  (My grandfather also headed up the building committee for First Baptist Groves’s sanctuary.  A plaque with his name on it still hangs there.)  My dad was only six when my grandfather died, and my grandmother never remarried.  As each of my aunts and my dad got married and moved out, she faithfully stayed by herself in that little house on Hays, and our memories of her are inseparable from our memories of her house – it was simply a part of her.  Although she died in 2003 and my dad/aunts sold her house, and although subsequent owners have made a number of improvements to it (it now has a dishwasher!), it’s still her house, damn it, our best remaining tangible connection to her.  So when we found out that her house was spared by the flooding, it feels like a part of her still lives on.  My aunt in Nederland was also spared, but we’ve had to grapple with the news that my cousin and his wife are dealing with a flooded house in Beaumont.

Thoughts and prayers to all of you.  Fuck Harvey.  Fuck the Rangers.  Fuck the month of August.  Let’s go do some living, and some winning.

What happened in the last series?

The Mets (58-75) dropped a three-game set to the Reds and haven’t won a series since a four-game series in Philly three weeks ago.

I think many of us could have predicted the Tampa Bay Astros (80-53) dropping two of three to the fucking Rangers given the circumstances.  Time to shake it off.  And now we have Kate Upton’s profundities Kate Upton’s tracts of land Justin Verlander.

Schedule/Probables

Saturday, September 2 – 1:10pm CDT
Matt Harvey (4-3, 5.25) vs. Charlie Morton (10-6, 3.88)

Yep, a player named Harvey pitching the first game in Houston after Hurricane Harvey.  You can’t make this shit up.

Harvey will be pitching his first game since going on the DL with a bum shoulder in mid-June.  Prior to that he was routinely running out of steam during the 5th or 6th innings; after pitching seven innings on April 21 he only finished the 6th inning once in his next nine starts.  Word is he’ll be limited to about 80 pitches on Saturday.  This will be his first start against the Astros.

Morton allowed three runs over five innings against the Angels, getting a no-decision in what turned into a 7-5 win.  He hasn’t faced the Mets since 2015, when he allowed two earned runs over 6.1 innings.

Saturday, September 2 – 7:10pm CDT
Seth Lugo (5-3, 4.85) vs. Brad Peacock (10-2, 3.12)

Lugo only recently came off his own DL stint with a shoulder problem, throwing 70 pitches in 3.2 innings against the Nationals on Saturday after missing a couple of starts.  Lugo has been fairly consistent during his brief work this year, usually good for 5-6 innings and 3-4 runs.

Peacock’s great effort in Anaheim (6 IP, 1 ER, third straight start with 8+ strikeouts) was wasted by a late rally against the bullpen.  He hasn’t faced the Mets since 2014.

Sunday, September 3 – 1:10pm CDT
Chris Flexen (3-3, 6.89) vs. Mike Fiers (8-9, 4.55)

Flexen started his season in high-A and was promoted to AA after only three starts.  After a smoldering 1.66 ERA in seven starts he was called up straight to the majors on July 27.  He’s had his ups and downs: he has only allowed more than three earned runs twice in his seven starts, but each of those came in less than five innings, and he’s only made it through six once.

Fiers has obviously slipped a bit since working his ERA down to 3.59 in late July, and just got lit up by the Rangers.

ASTROS @ BLUE JAYS
July 6-9, 2017

The All-Star Break looms.  With an assemblage of Astros in the game and no more “This Time It Counts” bullshit I suppose I’ll watch.

What happened in the last series?

The Astros (58-27) punished the Braves again in a two-game series, outscoring them 26-8.  Ho hum.

The Blue Jays (39-45) just took two out of three from the Yankees in the Bronx.  Prior to that Toronto hadn’t won a series since playing the Mariners about a month ago.  The Jays aren’t as terrible as they were to start the season but they still occupy the AL East cellar (although the sinking Orioles are providing some close company now).  Houston will be facing an average pitching staff and an offense that is well below average.

Schedule/Probables

Thursday, July 6 – 6:07pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (7-1, 2.69) vs. Francisco Liriano (4-4, 5.66)

LMJ battled through 5.1 tough innings against the Yankees, a game which got out of hand very quickly once the bullpen took over.  He only has one career start against the Blue Jays, taking a loss last year in 4.2 innings of work while giving up two runs on seven hits.

Liriano hasn’t been able to consistently reproduce the success he had with the Jays after the trade deadline last year.  Although he finished April with an ERA just under 4, two starts later he was on the DL with an ERA over 6.  He’s been in the mid/upper 5’s ever since returning in June, and most recently allowed five runs to the Red Sox over six innings.  He had one start against the Astros last year, giving up five runs in 5.2 innings.

Friday, July 7 – 6:07pm CDT
Charlie Morton (5-3, 4.06) vs. Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 3.33)

This is the “back from the DL” game as both pitchers are making their first starts since the month of May.

Specifically, Morton hasn’t pitched since May 24 when he last seven innings and took a no-decision against the Tigers.  Just a handful of Blue Jays players have batted against him, totaling 14×57 with six walks and 16 strikeouts.

Sanchez hasn’t pitched since May 19 and has only made five starts all season, returning from his third DL stint thanks to finger issues (blister, laceration, and a split fingernail).  Obviously what little work he’s had this year has been pretty decent.  He’s also done decent work against the Astros in recent years: in two starts between 2015 and 2016 he combined for 15 innings and a 1.80 ERA.

Saturday, July 8 – 12:07pm CDT
Mike Fiers (5-3, 3.80) vs. Marcus Stroman (8-5, 3.42)

Fiers only lasted four innings against the Yankees despite not giving up any runs.  In two starts against the Jays last season he was 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA.

Stroman has been Toronto’s most reliable start in 2017, both in terms of health and performance.  He usually makes it through six innings, 11 of his 17 starts are quality starts, and he has already thrown two complete games this year (one of which was a loss).  Most recently he held the Yankees to two runs over five innings and took the loss.  Last year he pitched very well against the Astros, with a 1.35 ERA and 21 strikeouts in two starts.

Sunday, July 9 – 12:07pm CDT
Brad Peacock (6-1, 2.91) vs. J.A. Happ (3-5, 3.47)

Peacock turned in his second quality start of the season against the Braves on Tuesday while walking only two.  He has not faced the Blue Jays since 2012.

Mr. Happy’s favorite pitcher missed half of April and almost all of May with a sore elbow.  Since his return he’s thrown five quality starts in six games and just held the Yankees to one run over six innings.  He’s had mixed results against modern Astros teams: last year he only allowed one run in six innings, but in three starts against Houston in 2015 he was 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA.

ASTROS @ BRAVES
July 4-5, 2017

Happy Independence Day, everybody.

What happened in the last series?

The Astros (56-27) rebounded from an opening-game thrashing to take two out of three from the Yankees.  David Paulino got popped for PEDs and solidified Francis Martes’s slot in the rotation until pretty much everyone returns from injury.  Morton finished up his rehab assignment and will pitch later this week.  McHugh started his rehab assignment.  

The Braves (40-41) spent the month of June crawling out of the NL East cellar and now sit in second place after sweeping the A’s over the weekend.  Eight games out of the division lead and seven games out of the wild card, it’s unlikely they’ll be in the hunt for anything more than a pat on the back, but stranger things have happened.

Schedule/Probables

Tuesday, July 4 – 6:35pm CDT
Brad Peacock (5-1, 2.72) vs. Sean Newcomb (1-2, 1.48)

Peacock overcame six walks to make it through five innings and qualify for a win against the A’s last Thursday.  He did not pitch in either of the May games against the Braves, and has very limited work against their lineup (only 15 total ABs).

The lefty Newcomb made his major league debut in mid-June and has been pretty damn solid – all four of his starts are quality starts, albeit against some pretty lackluster-at-best offensive teams: the Mets (13th in MLB in runs scored), Marlins (20th), Giants (28th), and Padres (30th).  He throws a fastball that can touch 99, a low-80s changeup, and a curve, all with average-to-plus stuff and average control.  Of course, all of this means he’ll throw seven shutout innings against the Astros.

Wednesday, July 5 – 6:35pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (7-1, 2.69) vs. Jaime Garcia (2-6, 4.35)

LMJ battled through 5.1 tough innings against the Yankees, a game which got out of hand very quickly once the bullpen took over.  Like Peacock, McCullers didn’t pitch in the short ATL series earlier this year and their lineup only has nine ABs against him.

Garcia did pitch in that series against the Astros and gave up four runs in six innings.  Since then he got his ERA down as low as 3.16, but that was before his last three starts in which he’s allowed a total of 18 runs on 21 hits and 5 yacks in just 16 innings.

ASTROS @ MARINERS
June 23-25, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Astros (50-24) just polished off a four-game sweep of the A’s in Oakland.

The Mariners (38-37) finished up a tour-game sweep of their own, scoring 27 runs against the Tigers.  The M’s have shoved their way into second place in the AL West and are one of the many .500-ish teams clogging up the wild card standings.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, June 23 – 9:10pm CDT
Joe Musgrove (4-6, 5.09) vs. Felix Hernandez (2-2, 4.73)

Musgrove was the loser in last Sunday’s frustrating game against the Red Sox, giving up five runs in 4.2 innings but getting insufficient help from his offense.  He pitched back-to-back starts against the Hags to open the season, combining for five runs and 12 hits on 10.1 innings.

There’s not much of a book on King Felix this year, having been on the DL since late April.  Expect to see him on some sort of pitch count tonight.  The Astros beat him on Opening Day, with Springer’s and Correa’s solo homers being the only real mistakes he made in the game.

Saturday, June 24 – 9:10pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (6-1, 2.58) vs. Sam Gaviglio (3-1, 3.43)

LMJ is back from the DL, the second of the Astros’ starters to return to action.  Houston has won eight of Lance’s last ten starts, including a 2-1 decision against the Mariners the day after Opening Day.

Gaviglio got his first call to the bigs in May to plug leaks in the Mariners rotation.  In five of his seven starts he has allowed two or fewer earned runs and he boasts a very good 1.19 WHIP.  He is a Keuchel clone, with a fastball that just reaches the low 90s and a sinker/slider combo that induces lots of ground balls.

Sunday, June 25 – 3:10pm CDT
Brad Peacock (4-1, 2.82) vs. Ariel Miranda (6-3, 4.04)

Peacock struck out eight A’s in 5.2 innings while allowing just one run.  His only appearances against the M’s this year have been in relief, working out of the bases-loaded-no-out jam (after allowing a walk) in the extra-inning game George Springer ended up walking off, and two innings of one-hit relief in Seattle.

Miranda has been pretty solid all year, allowing two or fewer runs in eight of his last ten starts.  The other two starts were doozies, though – eight runs allowed to the Phillies and six to the Twins.  He’s 0-1 in two starts against Houston this season.