ALCS GAME 4 POST-MORTEM
Yankees 6, Astros 4

Fuck.

ALCS GAME 5 – Series tied 2-2

Wednesday, October 18, 4:08pm CDT – Yankee Stadium
Dallas Keuchel (2-0, 0.71) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (1-1, 1.38)

Absolutely need no fewer than seven, and preferably eight or nine, innings from Keuchel.  Anything less puts the Astros’ pennant hopes on life support.

Absolutely need to pull heads out of asses and get to Tanaka.

Game 1 refresher:

Keuchel: 7 IP, 4 H (all singles), 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K

Tanaka: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 K

ALCS GAME 3 POST-MORTEM
Yankees 8, Astros 1

If you read the pitcher/batter matchups in the Game 3 preview then last night’s score shouldn’t be a terrible shock.  Coming into last night’s game the Yankee lineup had over a .900 OPS on Morton.  Hell, Frazier slugged .944 against Morton before his homer.  It does suck that the Yankees took their first lead on a squibbler, a bloop, and a reaching, almost one-handed home run on a decent pitch, which kind of set the tone for the evening.  Meanwhile, Astro hitters either hadn’t faced Sabathia much at all or had a significant track record of little success against him.

If there’s a silver lining to be had, it’s that the pitching exploded while the offense crumbled all in the same game.  Hope they got it out of their system and can steal a game before the rotations turn over.

ALCS GAME 4 – HOU leads 2-1

Tuesday, October 17, 4:08pm CDT – Yankee Stadium
Lance McCullers Jr (0-0, 6.00) vs. Sonny Gray (0-1, 8.10)

McCullers gave up two runs in three innings in Game 3 of the ALDS and had two good/great starts against the Yanks this year: the first a six-inning shutout affair in the Bronx in May, the second allowing three runs in 5.1 innings in June.  The Astros have lost eight of the last nine games in which McCullers has pitched.  Will we see Good Lance or Bad Lance today?  Who knows?

Gray turned in a 4-7 record and a 3.72 ERA with the Yankees since being acquired midseason, still a very solid performance despite an increase in WHIP (1.18 to 1.26) and homers (allowed three more in 32 fewer innings) and a decrease in K:BB (94:30 to 59:27).  He was the losing pitcher in Game 1 of the ALDS when the Yanks got blanked 4-0, Gray allowing three runs on three hits and four walks in 3.1 innings.

Gray didn’t do so well against Houston as an Oakland A in June, allowing five runs in as many innings, but he has done decently well against the Astros in the past.  Since 2014 he is 2-3 with a 4.35 ERA in seven starts against Houston.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Gregorius vs. McCullers: 8 AB, .625/.625/.750
Gardner vs. McCullers: 9 AB, .333/.333/.444
Hicks vs. McCullers: 7 AB, .143/.143/.143
Headley vs. McCullers: 7 AB, 0-fer
Ellsbury vs. McCullers: 8 AB, 0-fer

Altuve vs. Gray: 30 AB, .367/.367/.400
Beltran vs. Gray: 11 AB, .364/.417/.545
McCann vs. Gray: 12 AB, .333/.429/.667
Springer vs. Gray: 16 AB, .250/.368/.438
Gattis vs. Gray: 15 AB, .200/.294/.200
Correa vs. Gray: 14 AB, .071/.125/.071

ALCS GAME 2 POST-MORTEM
Astros 2, Yankees 1

Even though the Astros lost the 2004 NLCS, Game 5 was one of those games I was going to sock away forever in my memory.  The pitchers’ duel.  The defense.  The homer.  I still derive a lot of pleasure (NTTAWWT) from watching the homer, even with the hindsight of knowing what the next two games had in store.

Today’s game was one of those games.  Verlander was a monster on the mound, turning in a truly epic performance.  There was some more sparkling defense to save at least one run, perhaps more.  For the second time this postseason, the Astros scratched out the winning run against one of the best closers in the game.  And the Yankees couldn’t do something that the Astros had done more than once against them this year: cut down a crucial run at the plate.

And, as someone who moonlights as an audio engineer, it brings joy to my heart to hear the roar of the crowd cause Fox’s stadium mics to start clipping.  Fort Minute Maid is alive and well.

ALCS GAME 3 – HOU leads 2-0

Monday, October 16, 7:08pm CDT – Yankee Stadium
Charlie Morton (0-0, 4.15) vs. CC Sabathia (0-0, 3.72)

Morton gets the call for his second postseason start after giving up two runs in 4.1 innings in Game 4 of the ALDS.  Boston knocked him around a bit for seven hits on top of two walks.  Morton only faced the Yankees once this season, and was the winning pitcher in the 10-7 Jeter worship service in May; he allowed four runs in 5.2 innings while fanning 10.  That was only his second career appearance against the Yankees and his only start in the Bronx.

Sabathia has made two solid starts this postseason despite his record having nothing to show for it.  He was the starter of the fateful ALDS Game 2 that the Yankees let get away from them; he left the game with one out in the 6th and a man on, who eventually scored on Lindor’s salami.  In Game 5 he dominated for four-plus innings, striking out nine of his first 14 batters before four straight Indians reached base and chased him from the game.

The Astros did not see Sabathia this year, but in 2016 he picked up a win against them while allowing two runs in 6.2 innings.  For his career he is 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA against Houston.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Castro vs. Morton: 30 AB, .400/.400/.733
Frazier vs Morton: 18 AB, .389/.421/.944
Headley vs. Morton: 9 AB, .333/.500/.333
Holliday vs. Morton: 34 AB, .265/.286/.471
Gregorius vs. Morton: 6 AB, .167/.375/.167

Altuve vs. Sabathia: 6 AB, .333/.333/.333
Beltran vs. Sabathia: 35 AB, .229/.341/.333
McCann vs. Sabathia: 10 AB, .200/.250/.400
Reddick vs. Sabathia: 19 AB, .105/.150/.316

ALCS GAME 1 POST-MORTEM
Astros 2, Yankees 1

What happened in Game 1?  Just Keuchel doing Keuchel things, striking out 10 Yankees over seven shutout frames.  He now owns the lowest postseason ERA as a starter in MLB history for pitchers with a minimum of four starts.  Giles notched a five-out save despite giving up a moonshot blast off the RF foul pole in the top of the 9th.  

Oh, and Jake Marisnick Marwin Gonzalez cut down another Yankee at home plate on a throw from left field.  Neat.

On the offensive side, the Astros got just enough done against a very effective Tanaka, manufacturing a couple of runs in the 4th and hanging on for the win.  The Yankee pen definitely asserted themselves, though, with three scoreless innings.

ALCS GAME 2 – HOU leads 1-0

Saturday, October 14, 3:08pm CDT – Minute Maid Park
Luis Severino (1-0, 7.36) vs. Justin Verlander (2-0, 3.12)

Severino will be making his third postseason start after his disastrous Wild Card appearance and a rebound start against the Indians in Game 3 of the ALDS.  Severino was the Yankees’ best starter throughout the season, and he closed the season strong as well, throwing seven quality starts in his last eight games.  He finished 3rd in the AL in ERA at 2.98.

The Astros faced Severino twice in 2017 and can lay claim to two unique milestones in his season.  On May 11 the Astros chased Severino after six hits, three walks, and three earned runs in just 2.1 innings – his shortest regular season outing of the year.  This was the game where Fiers, Harris, and Devenski imploded and the Yankees won 11-6.  Then, on July 2 in Houston, Severino allowed his second-highest earned runs in a game, giving up six runs in 5.1 innings as the Astros won 8-1.

Verlander did not pitch to the Yankees this year, with his most recent outing being a 6+ inning one-run game last June.  For his career he is 6-7 with a 3.87 ERA against New York.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Gurriel vs. Severino: 5 AB, .800/.800/1.000
Correa vs. Severino: 4 AB, .750/.833/1.250
Reddick vs. Severino: 7 AB, .429/.500/.714
Altuve vs. Severino: 6 AB, .167/.167/.167
Springer vs. Severino: 6 AB, .167/.286/.333

Headley vs. Verlander: 15 AB, .400/.400/.800
Frazier vs. Verlander: 17 AB, .294/.294/.647
Gardner vs. Verlander: 26 AB, .269/.345/.385
Ellsbury vs. Verlander: 27 AB, .222/.281/.296
Hicks vs. Verlander: 9 AB, 0-fer

ASTROS vs. YANKEES
American League Championship Series

It’s not the ALCS matchup we expected – not in May when the Astros went to Cleveland, and certainly not when the postseason started – but it is the matchup we wanted.  Although it looked for all the world that the Astros and Indians were on an ALCS collision course, the Yankees made a dramatic 0-2 comeback to take their series.  Not only is the matchup better for the Astros (on paper, at least), it gives them home field advantage.

Despite the 10-win discrepancy in the regular season, and the fact that the Astros went 5-2 against New York this year, this series won’t be a layup for the Astros.  And despite bouncing baseball’s hottest team down the stretch, the Yankees face a tough challenge as well.

PITCHING

Regular season:

Team ERA: Houston 4.12 (11th), New York 3.72 (5th)
Starter ERA: Houston 4.03 (6th), New York 3.98 (5th)
Bullpen ERA: Houston 4.27 (17th), New York 3.34 (3rd)
Quality starts: Houston 67 (18th), New York 75 (10th)
K/9: Houston 9.91 (2nd), New York 9.69 (3rd)
BAA: Houston .240 (6th), New York .228 (T-1st)
OPS against: Houston .720 (9th), New York .680 (3rd)

Postseason ERA: Houston 4.63, New York 3.21

Let’s not bury the lede here: the Yankees have some scary-good pitching.  It’s been that way in the postseason as well, and it largely starts with the work they’ve gotten in relief.  Aroldis Chapman, Tommy Kahnle, Jaime Garcia, David Robertson, and Dellin Betances combined for a 0.71 ERA and 37 K’s against a Cleveland offense that was hardly incompetent.

The starting rotation hasn’t been as good in October, Masahiro Tanaka’s seven shutout innings in Game 3 notwithstanding.  Luis Severino barely got his uniform on before hitting the showers in the Wild Card game, although his ALDS start was much better (7 IP, 3 ER).  CC Sabathia had two good, if somewhat abbreviated, starts against the Indians.  Sonny Gray gave up three runs and four walks in 3.1 innings.

As we know, the Astros’ postseason ERA is thrown off kilter by the 10-3 loss in Game 3.  Also, in the regular season, the Astros’ 5.52 ERA against the Yankees was their worst against any team in 2017.  Most of the offenders for that are probably not going to be on the ALCS roster (Feliz, Diaz, Hoyt, Sipp, and Guduan all had ERAs over 6) so there’s that, but shaky outings by Morton and Devenski, and a real stinker by Harris, shouldn’t be overlooked either.

Then again, the Yankees’ 5.75 ERA and .822 OPS allowed against the Astros in 2017 were also their worst against any opponent in 2017.

OFFENSE

Regular season:

Runs scored: Houston 896 (1st), New York 858 (2nd)
Home runs: Houston 238 (2nd), New York 241 (1st)
Extra-base hits: Houston 604 (1st), New York 530 (8th)
Batting average: Houston .282 (1st), New York .262 (7th)
OBP: Houston .346 (1st), New York .339 (T-2nd)
Strikeouts: Houston 1,087 (1st), New York 1,386 (19th)
Stolen bases: Houston 98 in 140 tries (70%; 23rd), New York 90 in 112 tries (80.36%; 1st)
GIDP: Houston 139 (T-24th), New York 119 (10th)

Postseason slash line: Houston .333/.402/.571, New York .213/.302/.391

The Yankees and Astros were the top two MLB teams in runs scored and home runs, and the same can be said of the postseason.  I was kind of surprised to see the huge disparity in the postseason slash lines, but the Astros have more hits, more doubles, more triples, and nearly as many runs and home runs in 60 fewer ABs.  Aaron Judge went 1×20 with 16 K’s in the ALDS and was almost a complete non-factor in the series.  Aaron Hicks (.316) led the Yankees in batting while Didi Gregorious (.435, .588) led the team in on-base and slugging.

We’re about to find out how much of a factor Cleveland’s pitching was.

DEFENSE

Statistically speaking, the Astros and Yankees were fairly comparable in the number of errors committed in 2017.  The typical outfield of Gardner in LF, Hicks/Ellsbury in CF, and Judge in RF combined for 20 outfield assists.

Gary Sanchez tied for both the most passed balls (16) and most errors as a catcher (13) in MLB.  He did throw out 38% of runners, though, which puts him in the top 10.

OVERALL

This has the potential to be a very hard-fought series.  The Astros knocked around some great pitchers to get to the ALCS and have had significant success against the Yankees this year, even in New York with Aura and Mystique working the pole.  The Yankees got past the best pitching staff in the league while also keeping a potent offense at bay.  Whoever wins this series will have earned it.

ALCS GAME 1

Friday, October 13, 7:08pm CDT – Minute Maid Park
Masahiro Tanaka (1-0, 0.00) vs. Dallas Keuchel (1-0, 1.59)

It’s a rematch of the 2015 Wild Card game, just in a different venue.

This is Tanaka’s second postseason, and in his only October start this year he held the Indians scoreless for seven innings in Game 3.  Tanaka’s 2017 season was the worst of his MLB career, going 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA.  He set a new career high for home runs allowed (35) despite also setting a career high in strikeouts.  In mid-June he had a 6.34 ERA, but a solid summer whittled it down to 4.54 by early September.  That last month was feast or famine: in five starts he allowed 17 earned runs, and 14 of them came in just two starts.

No team has hit Tanaka harder than the Astros and it’s not even close.  In four career regular season starts he is 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA; his next worst ERA against another club is a full four runs lower.  Houston’s .381 OBP and .753 slugging percentage against him are also the best any team has done against him.  This was certainly borne out earlier this year in the Jeter Jerkoff, when Tanaka couldn’t finish the 2nd inning while the Astros went yard on him four times, including a granny by Bregman.

Keuchel, on the other hand, has had a ton of success against the Yankees.  In six starts against them he is 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA – his best against any team he has faced more than twice in his career – and Yankee hitters have managed just a .452 OPS against him.  As we know, Keuchel blanked the Yanks in their house in the 2015 Wild Card game, and this year allowed just one unearned run over six innings in the same game that this happened.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Correa vs. Tanaka: 10 AB, .500/.545/1.100
Springer vs Tanaka: 9 AB, .444/.545/1.111
Altuve vs. Tanaka: 11 AB, .364/.364/.727
Maybin vs. Tanaka: 8 AB, 0-fer

Headley vs. Keuchel: 22 AB, .273/.273/.455
Gregorius vs. Keuchel: 10 AB, .200/.200/.300
Hicks vs. Keuchel: 11 AB, .182/.357/.455
Castro vs. Keuchel: 14 AB, .143/.143/.214
Ellsbury vs. Keuchel: 16 AB, .125/.176/.125

ALDS GAME 3 POST-MORTEM
Red Sox 10, Astros 3

The first two innings followed a familiar formula for this ALDS: the Astros staked an early longball-driven lead, then let the Red Sox have some early traffic to get a run back.

That’s when the script wildly diverged from what played out the first two games.  Short of injuries, nearly everything that could go wrong for the Astros did go wrong in Game 3:

• Defensive miscues – errors by Marwin and Correa; Springer giving up on a fly ball that would have been catchable at the CF wall, allowing Boston to take the lead later in the inning
• Shoddy pitching – Liriano coughing up the lead with a no-doubter blast to his first batter; McCullers and Devenski both getting touched up
• Sudden inability to push runs across the plate – 3 runs on 13 fucking hits, 10 LOB
• Just plain bad luck – Reddick having a would-be soul-crushing 3-run home run stolen by Betts at the short wall in RF, then later having a Bradley fly ball bounce out of his glove and over the fence for a 3-run home run (thanks, BBGs, for that little dose of tragic irony)

Here’s hoping they got it out of their system and can shut this shit down without a win-or-go-home game in Houston on Wednesday.  Otherwise, I’ll be nervous-cleaning my house while the game is on.  The lopsided score gave the Red Sox the luxury of not using Kimbrel, so he’ll be good for up to two innings of relief on Monday if the situation warrants.

I’m going to go ahead and say it: Ted Barrett’s strike zone today was worse than Angel Hernandez’s on Friday.  He was abominably inconsistent on inside, outside, and low pitches.

Also, I’d hate to be the janitor tasked with cleaning up the FS1 broadcast booth after today’s game.  It must have been coated with a staggering amount of human reproductive material thanks to various aspects of today’s Red Sox win.

ALDS GAME 4 – HOU leads 2-1

Monday, October 9, 12:08pm CDT – Fenway Park
Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62) vs. Rick Porcello (11-17, 4.65)

Morton has only one postseason appearance under his belt, putting in a good outing in the 2013 NLDS Game 5 which his Pirates lost 2-1.  Like Peacock, he also had a steady year in 2017, injuries notwithstanding.  His ERA always hovered somewhere between 3.50 and 4, with only slight blips above 4 in May and July.  The biggest knock against him has been his longevity in games, although that improved as the season went on: he lasted at least six innings in nine of his 14 starts after the break.  He also closed the season very strong, going 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA and over a 5:1 K:BB ratio in September.

The Red Sox were one of those September wins for Morton as he beat them 3-2 in the final week of the season, holding them to two runs over 5.1 innings.  Before then his only other career appearance against Boston was a scoreless start in 2014.

Porcello has a decent volume of postseason work, having been on a number of Tigers and Red Sox playoff teams dating back to 2011.  In ten total playoff appearances (including his scoreless inning in Game 1 of this series) he is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA, and much of that damage was done in his three postseason starts where he has a 5.82 ERA.  Porcello followed up his 22-win 2016 season with 17 losses, and he closed the season with his second-worst month of the year, clocking a 5.93 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in September.

The Astros did not see Porcello in the last series of the year, but they hit him hard at Minute Maid in June, scoring seven runs and two bombs off of him in six innings.  That is his only recent work against Houston, as his next most recent appearance against them was in 2014.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Bogaerts vs. Morton: 6 AB, .333/.333/.500
Young vs. Morton: 12 AB, .250/.308/.500
Ramirez vs. Morton: 15 AB, .067/.176/.067

Springer vs. Porcello: 7 AB, .429/.429/.714
Beltran vs. Porcello: 27 AB, .370/.379/.519
Reddick vs. Porcello: 10 AB, .300/.533/.600
McCann vs. Porcello: 23 AB, .261/.250/.304
Altuve vs. Porcello: 9 AB, .222/.222/.667