Holy crap, the regular season starts today.

Going to try something new this season.  Instead of doing a preview/review for every series, I’m going to zoom out a bit and cover a week at a time.  While that may introduce some errors as pitching matchups can change, I’m hoping that I’ll have some time for a little deeper dive on analysis and commentary.  Because I know y’all are dying for that.

A FINAL-BUT-NOT-REALLY-FINAL LOOK BACK AT 2017

It’s been nearly five months since the Astros won the World Series and I realize that I still haven’t really come to terms with it.  Just seeing that string of italicized words in the previous sentence, without need of further context or qualification, is in several ways gobsmackingly foreign to me.

Of course, I watched the damn thing happen on live TV (and numerous times afterward, as recently as a couple days ago), I watched the parade on TV, I have watched every interview and read every article about it, I own clothing and other memorabilia that says it happened, and I have a picture of me standing close enough to breathe on the fucking trophy in the Texas Capitol.  Still, I find that I suffer from some cognitive dissonance about the whole thing.

Maybe part of it is because the part of me that thought it would never happen was larger than I thought.  One comparison I can make is that my grandmother lived to be almost 98 and, irrational though it may be, I subconsciously assumed that she would live forever.  When she did pass away while I was in college there was a bizarre “is this real life?” feeling that didn’t pass for several months. So even though the Astros demonstrated the ability for late-inning comebacks in the 2017 regular season, even though they staved off a Game 5 with Boston, even though they got off the mat against the Yankees, in hindsight part of me was still expecting them to fail as they had in every previous postseason.  (At the time, though, after the ALCS I never wrote them off.)

Maybe part of it is because I was so nervous throughout the entire postseason that I didn’t enjoy it as much as I should have.  I did enjoy it (if you know what I mean), but maybe it was only relative to the stress and fear of failure.

One thing is for sure, though: 2017 was a DNA-changing season for the Astros as an organization and for me as a fan.

A BRIEF LOOK AHEAD TO 2018

There’s not much to say that hasn’t already been said.  On paper you’d have a hard time building a better team to make a run at defending a title.  The Angels figure to be the Astros’ main competition within the division, and the Indians, Yankees, and Red Sox all pose serious threats to the pennant.

All I will say is that if there’s one thing I’d really love to see in 2018, it’s better consistency (and fewer injuries) from the rotation.

ASTROS @ RANGERS – March 29 – April 1, 2018

Schedule and pitching probables

Thursday, March 29, 2:35pm CDT
Justin Verlander (2017: 15-8, 3.36) vs. Cole Hamels (2017: 11-6, 4.20)

Friday, March 30, 7:05pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (2017: 14-5, 2.90) vs. Doug Fister (2017: 5-9, 4.88)

Saturday, March 31, 3:05pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (2017: 7-4, 4.25) vs. Matt Moore (2017: 6-15, 5.52)

Sunday, April 1, 2:05pm CDT
Gerrit Cole (2017: 12-12, 4.26) vs. Mike Minor (2017: 6-6, 2.55)

Is the Rangers’ offer of an Astros home series in Arlington still good?  If so, I’ve changed my mind. Let’s take them up on it for this series. Hang the banner, distribute the World Series rings, do all that jazz in their house.

Fun fact: to the extent that spring training records mean anything, there was not a worse spring training team than the Rangers, who turned in a paltry 8-22 Cactus League record and tied for the third-most runs allowed out of all MLB teams.

Spring training ERAs for the Astros pitchers listed above, respectively: 1.64, 2.35, 1.29, 2.14

Spring training ERAs for the Rangers pitchers listed above, respectively: 4.15, 5.84, 9.00, 6.17

Injuries

Astros – Yuli Gurriel was not placed on the DL to begin the season and will be eligible to return on Tuesday following his suspension.  Those who are on the DL (Hoyt, Rodgers, Gustave) probably weren’t going to be on the opening day roster anyway.

Rangers – Martin Perez is recovering from an elbow injury sustained on his ranch and is slated to pitch next weekend.  Tim Lincecum won’t be ready to go until May after not pitching at all last season. Tony Barnette also starts the year on the DL.

WORLD SERIES GAME 6 POST-MORTEM
Dodgers 3, Astros 1

With a bunch of missed opportunities on offense – second and third with no outs in the 5th, 0x6 with RISP, 8 LOB – the Astros needed a truly heroic outing from Justin Verlander, and they got it… for five innings.  That he lost a 1-0 lead in the 6th is hardly his fault.

Nobody said this would be easy.

WORLD SERIES GAME 7

Wednesday, November 1, 7:20pm CDT – Dodger Stadium
Lance McCullers Jr. (1-0, 2.95) vs. Yu Darvish (2-1, 4.15)

The script is already written.  The Dodgers have forced a Game 7 and will now cakewalk their way to a title at home.  The Astros don’t stand a chance.

Fuck.  That.

If the Astros can muster anything close to the kind of success they had against Darvish in Game 3, and if McCullers comes up huge like he has all postseason, they have a fighting chance.  And Game 7 promises to be a “kitchen sink” type game for both teams if the score is close late.

May the best team win, but seriously, fuck the Dodgers.

Game 3 lines:

McCullers: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 3 K

Darvish: 1.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 0 K

—

One way or another, this will be OWA’s final preview of the season.  One way or another, about 32 hours from the time of this writing I will go back to being a productive member of the workforce.  I can resume being a decent spouse.  I will rediscover the concept of halfway-adequate parenting.  And, as The Void consumes us, I will have to start exercising again without postseason baseball to keep my heart rate up.

While I look forward to these things, I’m going to miss the shitload of fun it’s been watching and writing about what is already unquestionably the best season in Astros history.  Thanks for hanging around and humoring my sometimes-insightful, infrequently-funny musings on starting pitching matchups and all the other bullshit that goes into your garden variety preview.

See you in 2018.

WORLD SERIES GAME 5 POST-MORTEM
Astros 13, Dodgers 12 (10 innings)

Good evening.  Or morning, or whatever the hell time of day it is right now.  Chances are, if you’re reading this then one of two things is true:

1. You’re about to scour the Internet for every possible Game 5 article you can find.
2. You’ve already scoured the Internet for every possible Game 5 article you can find.

In either case, I won’t waste your time with unoriginal analysis.  I’ll just leave you with the Fangraphs win probability graph of one for the ages.

WORLD SERIES GAME 6 – HOU leads 3-2

Tuesday, October 31, 7:20pm CDT – Dodger Stadium
Justin Verlander (4-0, 2.05) vs. Rich Hill (0-0, 2.77)

Verlander on the mound with a chance to end it.  In two career postseason starts in a clinching situation, he is 2-0 with 17 scoreless innings.  Yes please.

Game 2 lines:

Verlander: 6 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 5 K

Hill: 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 K

WORLD SERIES GAME 4 POST-MORTEM
Dodgers 6, Astros 2

Whether it’s the World Series or a regular season game in April, one hit through eight innings and two hits through nine innings sure sounds like a loss.  But damn it, this was a winnable game.  The Astros had a lot of hard contact turn into outs but led 1-0 after six with Morton on cruise control.  And then the bullpenanigans started.

I really like Hinch as a manager.  I think he has mostly managed circles around Roberts in this series, and whichever moves Roberts has made that worked out have largely been due to some combination of superior personnel and luck.  But with Morton/McCullers in the ALCS and McCullers/Peacock in Game 3, this game was a prime opportunity to go long with McHugh in relief.  Why has Hinch been so reluctant to use McHugh in the postseason?  Did McHugh do something behind the scenes to deserve this?  Dude was left off the ALDS roster for fucking Tyler White, then pitches four no-hit innings in garbage time in the ALCS, and now is nowhere to be found.  It’s the only thing I haven’t liked about Hinch’s managing this postseason.

Even still, Giles… damn.  He has taken two losses and a blown save this postseason.  If I were managing (and this postseason has showed me that I would probably be terrible at it), Giles has put on his spikes for the last time this season.

WORLD SERIES GAME 5 – Series tied 2-2

Sunday, October 29, 7:20pm CDT – Minute Maid Park
Clayton Kershaw (3-0, 2.96) vs. Dallas Keuchel (2-2, 3.00)

I know “must win” is an overused cliche when applied to non-elimination games, but the Astros really need to win this game.  Stealing one game in LA instead of two is a much more attractive proposition.  Keuchel has been excellent at home and the climate will be more favorable, so there is reason for hope.

Game 1 lines:

Kershaw: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 11 K

Keuchel: 6.2 IP , 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 K

WORLD SERIES GAME 3 POST-MORTEM
Astros 5, Dodgers 3

If you were expecting another tooth-and-nail outing against Yu Darvish, you didn’t get it.  The Astros hammered Darvish like they never had before, jumping to an early lead and forcing Roberts to burn through five of his relievers starting in the 2nd.

McCullers looked like he was coming unraveled in the third inning, until he got a whale of a double-play ball to bail him out.  It helps when your first baseman is not actually a first baseman.  Then in comes Peacock to shut in the 6th and, despite allowing McCullers’s runners to score (including on some bad luck), proceeded to shut down the Dodgers in what turned into an all-time great relief performance in World Series history.

And, despite the disappointment of watching Springer’s fly ball to center falling just a few feet short of a grand slam, this is actually a good thing.  As much devastation as the city of Houston has gone through the last few months, it didn’t need an earthquake on its hands.

WORLD SERIES GAME 4 – HOU leads 2-1

Saturday, October 28, 7:20pm CDT – Minute Maid Park
Alex Wood (0-1, 5.79) vs. Charlie Morton (1-1, 6.23)

Wood turned in an excellent 2017 season, setting career marks in ERA (2.72) and wins (he went 16-3 on the year).  He was lights out out of the gate and owned a 1.56 ERA right after the All-Star break.  He had two brief stints on the DL, one from late May to early June and another in late August, for shoulder issues.  One byproduct of the Dodgers’ postseason success has been that Wood has only made one appearance, when he took the Dodgers’ only loss in Game 4 of the NLCS.  He allowed three runs – all solo homers – in 4.2 innings while punching out seven.

Wood only has one career appearance against the Astros, which came in 2014 when he was with the Braves.  He threw a three-hit shutout over seven innings at Minute Maid Park, but Springer and Altuve are the only current Houston hitters that saw him that day.

You have to figure that Hinch is looking for another five or so solid innings from Morton, who is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA lifetime in two starts against the Dodgers.  If they get anything close to what they got from him in Game 7 of the ALCS, I have to figure McHugh will be waiting to take the ball most or all of the rest of the way.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Ethier vs. Morton: 5 AB, .600/.667/1.200
Utley vs. Morton: 10 AB, .500/.545/1.000
Grandal vs. Morton: 5 AB, .400/.400/.400

Only Altuve, Springer, and Reddick have ever faced Wood.  They are a combined 1×10, Springer owning the lone hit.