ASTROS @ A’S
June 19-22, 2017

While driving in Austin this morning I saw a father and son playing catch in their front yard a couple of blocks from the office.  Greg Gibson called them strikes from his Houston hotel room.

What happened in the last series?

With the exception of Saturday’s game, the Astros (46-24) forgot how to hit with runners in scoring position.  Between Friday’s and Sunday’s games they combined for a shitty 4×19 with 19 left on base.

Meanwhile, the AL-worst A’s (31-38) just swept the Yankees in four games.  What in the double fuck?

Schedule/Probables

Monday, June 19 – 9:05pm CDT
Brad Peacock (3-1, 3.00) vs. Daniel Gossett (0-1, 16.20)

Peacock rebounded from getting blown up by the Angels and allowed one earned run while striking out ten Rangers in 4.2 innings.  He has made two relief appearances against the A’s this year, allowing a total of six baserunners.

Injuries to Kendall Graveman and Andrew Triggs necessitated Gossett making his major league debut against the Marlins last week.  As you can see by his numbers, it didn’t go so well: six earned runs (seven total) in just 3.1 innings of work.  Gossett rocketed through three levels of the A’s farm system last season and had a 3.41 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in AAA this year before the callup.  He has average command of four pitches and relies on soft contact.

Tuesday, June 20 – 9:05pm CDT
Francis Martes (1-0, 5.19) vs. Sonny Gray (2-2, 4.44)

Martes picked up his first big league win, battling through five innings against the Rangers in a game that the Astros eventually made uninteresting.

A potential trade target for the Astros, Gray was on the DL during April which was the last time the Astros and A’s played.  He’s had his ups (7 IP, 1 ER, 11 K’s vs. the Fish) and downs (4.2 IP, 7 ER vs. the Tribe) and hasn’t notched a W since May 24.  Since 2015 he’s 3-1 with a 2.87 ERA against Houston.

Wednesday, June 21 – 9:05pm CDT
Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.00) vs. Sean Manaea (6-3, 4.01)

About a month ago, saying that Fiers would be your best pitcher in June would’ve caused many here to start looking for cliffs to jump off of.  Fiers has lived up to that label, though, going 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA in his last four starts.  He has not faced the A’s this year, and last year he was 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA in three starts against Oakland.

The Astros have already seen Manaea once this year, when he no-hit them through five innings but walked the bases loaded and got burned by some defensive dick-stepping.  That game was one of the early patented Houston comebacks, with the Astros winning 10-6 after being down 5-0.  The A’s have not lost a Manaea start since May 15, a stretch of six starts where he’s gone 5-0 with four quality starts.

Thursday, June 22 – 2:35pm CDT
David Paulino (1-0, 5.03) vs. Jesse Hahn (3-4, 3.56)

It took him a few games but Paulino finally earned his first MLB win against the Red Sox.  He has never faced the A’s.

Hahn has been the A’s best starter this season despite already having a DL stint to nurse a bum shoulder.  Since coming off the DL a couple weeks ago he’s only made it past the 5th inning once.  The Astros beat him in April with eight hits and four total runs off him in six innings.

RED SOX @ ASTROS
June 16-18, 2017

It’s time for another series preview which, given recent history, means that the pitching matchups outlined below will certainly be obsolete by first pitch tonight.

What happened in the last series?

The Red Sox (37-29) come to Houston on top of the AL Wild Card standings and have won five of their last seven, winning a three-game series against the Tigers and a four-game series against the Phillies.  Much like the Astros, the Sox have been dealing with pitching injuries lately, as three of their 2017 starters (Brian Johnson, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Steven Wright) are on the DL, and that’s after losing Roenis Elias and Tyler Thornburg before Opening Day.  They have Chris Sale, of course, but the Astros managed to dodge him for this series (at the time of this writing, at least).

The Astros (45-22) avoided a sweep at the hands of the Rangers and finally got an off-day to rest their arms.  Some significant innings from the rotation would be nice for the next 10-game stretch.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, June 16 – 7:10pm CDT
Drew Pomeranz (6-4, 4.48) vs. Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.29)

Pomeranz has had his ups and downs this season, and in eight of his twelve starts he has failed to complete six innings (of those eight, he’s only made it to the 6th inning twice).  He’s prone to giving up crooked numbers every now and then (he just allowed five earned runs to the Tigers), but he’s largely been effective at holding the score down, just not pitching very economically.  The Astros have not faced him since 2015, when he pitched in seven games (three starts) as a member of the A’s.  As a reliever he had a 0 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP against the Astros; as a starter he had a 5.02 ERA and 1.605 WHIP.

Let’s hear it for Fiers, huh?  Three straight effective starts, three straight wins, and he’s brought his ERA down by nearly a whole run in less than a month.  The Red Sox offense does present some danger, although Fiers did decently in limited work against Boston last year.  Their lineup bats only .250/.313/.295 against him.

Saturday, June 17 – 7:15pm CDT
Rick Porcello (3-8, 4.67) vs. David Paulino (0-0, 6.59)

Porcello lets a lot of guys on base – his 1.51 WHIP is 14th-worst in MLB.  That often comes in the form of hits, with four double-digit hit games this season.  He tempers the hits with low walks, a good number of strikeouts (his 82 K’s are 17th-best in MLB) and eating innings like a pro (in 14 starts, only once has he failed to complete six innings).  He’s coming off two straight games of allowing five earned runs to the Yankees (excusable) and Phillies (whaaaa?).  The Astros have not faced Porcello since 2014 when he was with the Tigers, so many sample sizes against him are small.  Of the ones that aren’t, Beltran is 9×25, McCann is 5×21, and Aoki shouldn’t be playing on Saturday is 1×15.

Paulino got punished in an all-around crappy game against the Angels, not factoring into the 12-6 loss despite giving up five runs in just four innings.  He has never pitched against the Red Sox.

Sunday, June 18 – 7pm
David Price (1-1, 5.09) vs. Joe Musgrove (4-5, 4.81)

The Astros’ second appearance on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball this year.  What ever would we poor Astros fans do to get primetime national exposure without the Yankees and Red Sox??  OWA’s thank-you card is already in the mail.

There has been much consternation about David Price’s injury-delayed start to the season and then his 5.09 ERA after four starts.  A closer look will show that he’s pitched two quality starts and gave up a crapload of runs to the Yankees (who hasn’t?  I mean, except for Keuchel and McCullers).  Goes to show that the east coast sports media often blows things out of proportion, while simultaneously making ridiculous claims like ESPN’s David Schoenfeld saying the Astros “have no weaknesses” a couple weeks ago.  Yeah, most on this site weren’t even saying that.  Anyway, Price pitched a good game against Houston in 2016 (6.2 IP, 1 ER, 12 K), and another solid outing as a Tiger in 2015 (6.2 IP, 2 ER, 12 K).  Expect to see McCann in the lineup on Sunday; he has a 1.029 OPS against Price in 29 AB.

Musgrove made a decent showing in Arlington coming off the DL, lasting only 4.2 innings but allowing just two runs and getting no run support whatsoever.  Like Paulino, this will also be his first start against the Sawks.

RANGERS @ ASTROS
June 12-14, 2017

These fucks again.

What happened in the last series?

The goddamn Rangers (30-32) inexplicably swept the Nationals in Washington, and even held them to six runs over the entire weekend.  Be on the alert for uppity Rangers fans and/or an uppity Dave Raymond as a result.

The Astros (44-20) badly need an off day.  Ten games in ten days with the suddenly exacerbated lack of pitching depth has not done the team any favors, dropping a home series to the sub-.500 Angels.  At least Musgrove is back from the DL.

Schedule/Probables

Monday, June 12 – 7:10pm CDT
Yu Darvish (5-4, 3.18) vs. Joe Musgrove (4-4, 4.89)

After the Astros bounced Darvish after just five innings, he lasted into the 8th inning against the Mets and gave up three runs.  The Rangers tied the game in the bottom of the inning, getting Darvish off the hook for the loss, their bully coughed it right back up in the 9th.

Musgrove’s last outing was spectacular (7 IP, 4 H, 0 R vs. the Orioles) but his earlier outing against the Rangers was not so good, and is the only game against the Rangers the Astros have lost this season.  I suspect he’ll also have some rust on him after not pitching in a game since May 26.

Tuesday, June 13 – 7:10pm CDT
Nick Martinez (1-3, 4.88) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (6-1, 2.58)

Martinez was on the receiving end of the 10-1 thrashing the Astros gave him in Houston, and threw 3+ innings of long relief during the Astros’ 7-2 win in Arlington on June 4.  That was the last time he has pitched.  Between those games, he’s allowed four or more runs three times.

McCullers is a badass, taking a no-hitter into the 7th against the Royals but unfortunately not factoring into the decision..

Wednesday, June 14 – 7:10pm CDT
Andrew Cashner (3-5, 3.17) vs. Brad Peacock (3-1, 3.15)

The Astros notched 11 hits on Cashner when they faced him in Arlington, but he made a decent turnaround in Washington on Friday, holding the Nationals to one run over seven innings.

Peacock had his first really rough start of the year against the Angels, allowing 11 baserunners while striking out just one batter in three innings.  He did have a quality start against the Rangers though.

ANGELS @ ASTROS
June 9-11, 2017

The Astros return to Fort Minute Maid for a nine-game homestand against the A’s, Rangers, and Red Sox.  The infirmary is getting pretty crowded.

What happened in the last series?

The Angels (31-32) just finished up a .500 road trip, winning three-game series in Atlanta and Detroit and losing a four-game set in Minnesota.  They have played .500 ball since the Astros came to Anaheim in early May and took two out of three from them.  The Angels are still hanging near the top 10 in team ERA, but the offense is in the bottom 10 in a number of categories.  Losing Mike Trout won’t help that.

The Astros (43-18) split the series in Kansas City, their first series split of the year.  If you’d told me on Monday morning that Houston was starting Paulino and Fiers in the series and that Dallas Keuchel would miss his start, I’d be happy with a 2-2 split.  Really should’ve been 3-1 but I’m not going to dwell on that too much with a 13-game lead in the division and a 7-game lead for the top seed in the AL.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, June 9 – 7:10pm CDT
Matt Shoemaker (5-3, 4.12) vs. Brad Peacock (3-0, 2.30)

The Astros have already handed Shoemaker two L’s this year.  The last one came in a 6 IP, 5 ER outing that the Angels lost 5-3, highlighted by a 3-run Altuve jack in the 3rd.  

Peacock turned in another nice start against the Rainjizz, earning his third win in a quality start.  While still in the bullpen he pitched two perfect innings with 3 K’s when the Angels came to town in April.

Saturday, June 10 – 3:10pm CDT
Ricky Nolasco (2-6, 5.05) vs. Mike Fiers (3-2, 4.84)

The Angels have lost seven straight games when Nolasco has been on the mound, and he has four straight losing decisions in as many starts.  The worst of those was a disastrous start against the Braves where he faced 17 batters in 2.2 innings and gave up six runs.  He did not face the Astros in May but did pitch a quality start against them in April, which the Angels won 5-2.

Don’t look now, but Fiers has gone two straight starts without allowing a home run and has also picked up two straight wins.  Fiers was the opposing (and winning) pitcher in Shoemaker’s 5-3 loss mentioned above.

Sunday, June 11 – 1:10pm CDT
Jesse Chavez (5-6, 4.56) vs. David Paulino (0-0, 4.66)

Chavez was in line for a loss in May’s series opener before Keuchel and Giles let a 6-2 lead slip away in the 9th inning.  In his starts since then, he’s notched two quality starts, fallen one out shy of two more, and given up five runs twice (one of which he won anyway).

Paulino hasn’t factored into a decision yet this season, but he deserved one in Kansas City.  In his only career work against the Angels last year he pitched three innings of one-hit scoreless relief.

ASTROS @ ROYALS
June 5-8, 2017

It’s been a hell of a week.

What happened in the last series?

The Astros are 41-16.  This enchubbens me.  (NOTE: Google Docs spellcheck has no problem with the word “enchubbens”.  This, too, enchubbens me.)

As much as the Astros have done this season, the Royals (24-31) have something the Astros don’t: a winning record against the Indians.  KC has taken four of six from the Tribe in their last nine games and are the only other team besides the Indians to win a series against the Astros this year.  Of course, that was back before the Houston offense really got out of first gear.  The Royals have one of the most anemic offenses in baseball: they are the only team that has scored fewer than 200 runs and are rock bottom in the AL in average, OBP, slugging, and walks.  The pitching has been a little better, mostly thanks to the 8th-best rotation ERA in baseball.  That’s no small feat considering they’ve had to deal with injuries (Danny Duffy and Nate Karns are on the DL; Ian Kennedy had some DL time in May) and the death of Yordano Ventura.

Schedule/Probables

Monday, June 5 – 7:15pm CDT
Mike Fiers (2-2, 4.96) vs. Ian Kennedy (0-5, 5.12)

Fiers tossed his second of two May quality starts against the Twins, striking out eight and allowing NO HOME RUNS for the first time this season.  He also pitched a quality start against the Royals in April but got no run support.

That could change this time around.  Kennedy closed the month of April with a 2.30 ERA but sported an 11.30 ERA in May, allowing 4+ earned runs in each start and a DL stint sandwiched in between.  He did really well against the Astros in two starts last year (2-0, 1.29).  However, Altuve, Aoki, Beltran, Gattis, and McCann all have a .900+ OPS against Kennedy.

Tuesday, June 6 – 7:15pm CDT
David Paulino (0-0, 4.50) vs. TBD/Jake Junis (1-0, 2.70)

Paulino did an admirable job filling in for Musgrove in Minneapolis, allowing two runs in four innings while punching out eight.

The Royals haven’t yet announced a starter for Tuesday’s game, and it looks like they’re using their off day last Thursday to rearrange their rotation a bit.  As such it’s been hard to nail down who they might use, but the best guess I’ve seen so far may be Jake Junis.  Junis made his MLB debut in April and made a couple of relief appearances before a spot start against the Twins.  Consensus seems to have his ceiling as a back-of-rotation guy, with low-90s velocity and decent command of his offspeed stuff.

I suppose there’s also a chance that Nate Karns comes off the DL and pitches this game, but I haven’t seen any speculation to that effect – only that he was eligible to come off the DL on 5/31 and wouldn’t miss more than 1-2 starts.

Wednesday, June 7 – 7:15pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (9-0, 1.67) vs. Jason Vargas (7-3, 2.08)

Keuchel’s seven-inning, one-run performance against the Royals in April is one of his two no-decisions for the year.  Thanks Gerry Obama Gregerson.

Duffy may be considered the Royals’ ace but Vargas has been their best starter this season.  After making just 12 starts in 2015 and 2016 combined he’s having the best season of his career.  Nearly half of his 11 starts were shutouts and he routinely works into the 6th inning and beyond (including a complete game shutout of the Indians last week).  One of his many quality starts came against the Astros in April, allowing one run over six innings.

Thursday, June 8 – 7:15pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (6-1, 2.71) vs. Jason Hammel (2-6, 5.93)

The Rangers (and the Astros defense) made McCullers work too hard to qualify for the win on Saturday, but he still racked up eight strikeouts.  His seven-inning, three-run game against the Royals prevented a sweep and was the first of two 10 K games for him this year.

The Royals are 2-9 when Hammel is on the hill.  The two wins came in quality starts against the Indians.  The losses are a combination of a lack of run support (losing 2-1 to the Giants, 3-0 to the Yankees) and some less-than-good pitching (e.g. 6 ER on 13 hits allowed to the Rays).  He has little meaningful experience against the modern-day Astros: just a 5.50 ERA in three starts against them when he was with the A’s in 2014.