ASTROS @ ANGELS
May 5-7, 2017

Off we go on a quick trip to the west coast.

What happened in the last series?

Thursday’s blowout notwithstanding, I think everyone here is happy with punking the Rangers three times in a four-game series.  Marwin Gonzalez is your new team leader in HR and RBI (!) and may be emerging as a Ranger-killer.  In just three games he went 6×10 with four bombs, raising his season average by 62 points (.204 to .266) and his OPS by 270 points (.817 to 1.087).  The Astros are one percentage point ahead of the Yankees for the best record in the AL.

The Angels are 8-5 since we last saw them and just dropped a series in Seattle in which they allowed 23 runs over three games.  They’ve also been bitten by the injury bug lately: CJ Cron is out with a minor leg injury and his DL stint will outlast this series, while Tyler Skaggs, one of their best starters so far this season, suffered an oblique strain last week and may not be back until the ASB.  They come into the series in second place, 4.5 games behind the Astros.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, May 5 – 9:07pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (5-0, 1.21) vs. Jesse Chavez (2-4, 4.50)

Keuchel has already victimized the Angels this year.  Other than that, I’ve run out of useful things to say about him.

Chavez pitched well in Houston earlier this year, allowing just one run over seven innings.  Unfortunately for him, the Angels got shut out on the other side of the ball.  His next appearance was a 13th-inning relief outing against the Blue Jays, where .109/.242/.145-hitting (at the time) Joey Bats took him deep for what would be a game-winning 3-run homer.  He rebounded three days later with a quality start and a W, then took another loss to the Rangers.

Saturday, May 6 – 8:07pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (2-1, 4.08) vs. JC Ramirez (3-2, 4.23)

McCullers’s first outing against the Angels was fantastic, allowing three runs and three walks over 6.2 scoreless innings while fanning eight.

Ramirez had the unfortunate assignment of being paired with Keuchel in his last appearance against the Astros.  He pitched a pretty decent game, especially considering his nine K’s, but left the game trailing 3-1 in the 6th.  He has also posted similar strikeout numbers against the A’s and Rangers, and over his last 12.1 innings he has allowed just two runs with a WHIP under 1.

Sunday, May 9 – 2:37pm CDT
Mike Fiers (0-1, 5.68) vs. Matt Shoemaker (1-1. 4.78)

With approximately 704 home runs allowed (look it up, I dare you), Fiers is your major league leader in that category.  Personally, I was really hoping we would draw the Angels’ Ricky Nolasco (closely behind Fiers in HRs allowed) for this game and get an orthopedist to sponsor all the neck-twisting.  Fiers did not pitch in the Angels series earlier this year, and he posted some of his worst results against them last year, going 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA in three starts (including a 17.18 ERA in Angel Stadium).

Shoemaker pitched a pretty damn good game (7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER) against the Astros in the last series, only to lose the game 2-1.  That was his only start where he made it out of the 6th inning, and he would have a number of quality starts if it weren’t for his relatively short (for him) starts.  Since the series in Houston he got his first win against the A’s, then took a no-decision in a win against the Mariners.

ATHLETICS @ ASTROS
April 28-30, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The A’s went on a hot streak since we last saw them, taking two of three from the Rangers and three of four from the Mariners.  However, they just got swept by the Angels in Anaheim, including an extra-inning loss on Tuesday.

We just watched the Astros lose two of three in Cleveland that could have easily been a sweep for the good guys if a few things had panned out differently.  It’s especially difficult to watch them get only three runs on eleven hits, and losing regular contributors like Marisnick, Springer, and Altuve for part or all of the series certainly didn’t help either.  Then again, the Indians are a few months removed from winning a pennant so that adds some perspective.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, April 28 – 7:10pm CDT
Jharel Cotton (2-2, 4.76) vs. Charlie Morton (1-2, 4.29)

Cotton is in his first full season after a cup of coffee in 2016, when he went 2-0 with a 2.15 ERA over five starts.  Through four starts this season he’s alternated between success (two quality starts, including two-hitting the Royals over seven scoreless innings) and something less (allowing five earned runs to both the Rangers and Angels).  He gets more fly ball outs than anything, which may play well for the Astros at Minute Maid.  He did see Houston during his brief MLB stint last season, pitching six innings and giving up one run.

Morton allowed five runs in as many innings against the Rays last Saturday.  With lots of traffic on the basepaths (1.57 WHIP) he hasn’t yet had the opportunity to work very deep into games, having three straight appearances of just five innings.

Saturday, April 29 – 6:10pm CDT
Andrew Triggs (3-1, 2.42) vs. Joe Musgrove (1-1, 5.91)

Triggs split time between Oakland’s rotation and bullpen last year; one remarkable stat is that, out of 24 appearances he made in 2016, the A’s only won two of those games.   and has enjoyed early success starting games this season, racking up wins against the Angels, Royals, and Rangers without allowing a single earned run.  Then the Mariners slapped him around a little, tagging him for six runs in a game they went on to win 11-1.  Last season, in four innings of stop-the-bleeding relief, he gave up five runs to the Astros in Houston.

Young pitchers can be frustrating to watch and Musgrove has been no exception this month.  That said, he did a pretty damn fine job of rebounding from a 4-run 1st inning against the Rays, a game the Astros would go on to win in extras.  In two starts against the A’s in 2016 he allowed only one run in 10+ innings.

Sunday, April 30 – 1:10pm CDT
Jesse Hahn (1-1, 2.08) vs. Dallas Keuchel (4-0, 1.22)

Remember how I mentioned that stop-the-bleeding appearance that Triggs made against the Astros in 2016?  Jesse Hahn started that game, but nobody remembered since he allowed seven runs and didn’t make it out of the 1st.  This season, though, he’s strung together four quality starts but has been hampered by his bullpen blowing leads (against the Rangers) and poor run support (against the Angels).

In six starts since the Astros have been worth a damn, Keuchel has a 1.43 ERA against the A’s, and he’s already rolled up a win on them this season.  Come hungry.

ASTROS @ INDIANS
April 25-27, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Indians are 10-8 after taking two out of three from the White Sox in Chicago, with back-to-back 3-hitters on Friday and Saturday by Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco.  This was on the heels of basically sweeping the Twins (a fourth game in the series got rained out).  Cleveland’s 7th-best bullpen ERA is largely offset by their 2nd-worst starter ERA (4.81), although that number was certainly helped by last weekend’s shutouts.  The Tribe boast an offense not entirely dissimilar to the Astros’, with AVG, OPS, and runs all in the top tier or just below and strikeouts in short supply.

The Astros just won a series in Tampa for the first time in nearly a decade, continuing to find ways to win in come-from-behind fashion.  Jake Marisnick is going through the concussion protocol and may not be available for this series after catching Tropicana’s center field wall with his face.

Schedule/Probables

Tuesday, April 25 – 5:10pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (3-0, 0.96) vs. Josh Tomlin (1-2, 11.68)

There’s not much to say about Keuchel – so far this year he’s been good for seven innings and one run or less every time, and with a sub-1 ERA and WHIP he’s been a machine.  He’s also 3-0 against Cleveland for his career.

Tomlin is obviously not likely to continue posting the stats he has – 1.93 WHIP, .393 BAA – but I’ll be happy if he waits another week or so before he really turns things around.  He actually posted a quality start against the Twins after getting beaten up by the White Sox and Diamondbacks.  Somewhat remarkably, he has only pitched against the Astros once since they’ve been not-shitty: a single scoreless inning in his only relief appearance last season.

Wednesday, April 26 – 5:10pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (2-0, 3.38) vs. Trevor Bauer (1-2, 6.35)

McCullers turned in his best outing of the season against the Angels last Thursday, taking a shutout into the 7th before getting pulled after walking a pair.  He has never faced Cleveland, although Edwin Encarnacion took him deep as a Blue Jay.

Like Tomlin, Bauer pitched his best game against the Twins, getting his first win while allowing less than four runs for the first time.  Despite his early struggles the Astros will have to overcome some history – Bauer is 5-0 with a 1.96 ERA in five career starts against Houston.

Thursday, April 27 – 5:10pm CDT
Mike Fiers (0-1, 5.40) vs. Corey Kluber (2-1, 4.28)

Prepare your drinking game of choice.  Fiers is one long ball short of tying the MLB lead and, if his current pattern continues, will give up four home runs in this game.  He did pick up two wins against the Indians in 2016, though, so who the hell knows?

Kluber pitched a complete-game three-hit shutout and faced only two batters over the minimum against the White Sox in his last start.  This was a nice rebound from a couple of tough outings against Detroit and the Rangers.  He has had mixed success against the Astros in the past; last year he was 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA against Houston, but did much better in 2014 and 2015.

ANGELS @ ASTROS
April 17-20, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Angels, leading the AL West just a week ago, got swept in a three-game set against the Royals after dropping a series to the Rangers – they have lost five straight.  They scored a total of only three runs in Kansas City, capped by a two-hit shutout on Sunday that they lost 1-0 on a walkoff single in the bottom of the 9th.  Their 4.69 team ERA is good for 25th in MLB, mostly due to a starting rotation that is 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA.  Although the bullpen’s stats are pretty middle of the road, the Astros would do well to do some damage early instead of climbing out of a multiple-run hole.  The Angels went 6-13 against Houston in 2016.

Having won the first two games in Oakland, the Astros had the heel of their boot against the A’s throat before Tony LaRussa the A’s canceled Sunday’s game due to weather.  This truly puts into perspective the brave – and, dare I say, heroic – efforts of the Giants, who bravely toughed out a downpour of Biblical proportions some rainfall and, against all odds, managed to play an outdoor baseball game at the same time just ten miles to the west.  G-men, know that your sacrifice has not been in vain.  We will never forget.  Carlos Correa wasn’t able to dodge an inside fastball literally on the hands on Saturday, but he has fortunately dodged the proverbial bullet and will not miss significant playing time; at the time of this writing he may even be available for Tuesday’s game.

Schedule/Probables

Monday, April 17 – 7:10pm CDT
Jesse Chavez (1-1, 5.40) vs. Charlie Morton (0-1, 4.09)

Chavez has been a mixed bag so far this season.  In his first start he beat the Mariners, falling one out short of a quality start.  The Rangers then hung an L on him, getting five runs and two bombs off of him in just 4.1 innings.  He has not faced the Astros since pitching an eight-inning one-run gem against them in 2015.  Altuve has hit him well for his career (7×20) but no other Astros hitter is better than .250 against him.

Morton lasted five innings against the Mariners and allowed three runs when just one would’ve been enough for a loss, with Seattle pitching a 6-0 shutout on the other side of the ball.  A longtime veteran of the NL East, he has only faced the Angels twice in his career: once in 2008 and again in 2013.  Four Angels hitters hit better than .400 against him, albeit with small sample sizes.

Tuesday, April 18 – 7:10pm CDT
Ricky Nolasco (0-2, 5.40) vs. Joe Musgrove (1-0, 4.35)

Nolasco has already allowed five home runs this season, and at least one in each of his three starts.  After coming over from the Twins in a midseason trade last year, he pitched seven innings of shutout ball against the Astros at MMP.  Brian McCann is a beastly .338/.352/.765 against Nolasco with 8 homers and 26 RBI in 68 ABs.  Beltran is a respectable .353/.421/.412, but everyone else either doesn’t have good numbers or doesn’t have many/any numbers, or both.

Backed by some timely hitting from his offense, Musgrove earned his first win of the season against the Hags, allowing three runs in 5.1 innings.  He did really well against the Angels in 2016, allowing one run over seven innings in his final start of the year.

Wednesday, April 19 – 7:10pm CDT
JC Ramirez (2-1, 7.20) vs. Mike Fiers (0-1, 5.40)

A pitcher with a W/L and ERA like Ramirez’s usually has a story behind him.  A career reliever, Ramirez started 2017 in the bullpen and owned a 2-0 record through three appearances, although one of those games was the blown-save/win ultimate bitch statistic in pitching.  Then Garrett Richards pulled a bicep and Ramirez was thrust into the rotation.  In his first career start he took the loss against Kansas City, giving up five runs in as many innings.  The Astros have faced him 11 times as a reliever in 2015 and 2016, tagging him with two blown saves and a 6.75 ERA.

The first five-run Astros comeback since 2008 got Fiers off the hook last Wednesday after allowing five runs in four sloppy innings of work.  The Angels hit well against him in 2016, giving him a 6.35 ERA in three appearances.

Thursday, April 20 – 1:10pm CDT
Matt Shoemaker (0-0, 6.14) vs. Dallas Keuchel (2-0, 0.86)

Like Nolasco, Shoemaker has allowed at least one homer in each of his starts this season.  Despite a bad second outing against the M’s where he allowed six earned runs in 4.1 innings, he rebounded against the Royals, taking a no-decision after five-plus innings of two-run ball.  Last year he was frustratingly good against the Astros, with a 2.22 ERA in four starts despite going 1-2.

What can I say?  Keuchel is doing Keuchel things, he has more wins against the Angels since 2014 (seven) than against any other team, and as a team they hit .253/.333/.380 against him.  Nom nom nom.

ASTROS @ MARINERS
April 10-12, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Mariners just got swept in Anaheim, and at 1-6 they stand alone as baseball’s worst team.  Of particular note is Sunday’s game wherein the M’s headed into the bottom of the 9th enjoying a 9-3 lead and a 99.8% win probability.  The Angels sent twelve men to the plate and rallied for seven LOL-inducing (it’s funny when it’s not happening to your team) runs, handing Seattle its second gut-wrenching walk-off defeat in five days.

The Astros narrowly avoided a sweep of their own, overcoming some fairly anemic offensive efforts all weekend that culminated in an extra-inning walk-off walk on Sunday.  The pitching has been characteristically excellent (except for some late-inning demons) and people besides George Springer have started to make significant offensive contributions: McCann, Gattis, Reddick, and Beltran are all starting to dig out of their collective funk from very early on.  The focus now shifts to the meat of the order as Bregman, Altuve, Correa, and Gurriel are a collective .180/.217/.220 with 2 RBI, 4 BB, and 17 K.  This will obviously not continue over 162 games, but it does need to turn around pretty soon.

Schedule/Pitching Probables

Monday, April 10 – 4:10pm CDT
Charlie Morton (0-0, 3.00) vs. James Paxton (0-0, 0.00)

It’s easy to forget this was the matchup that started last week’s 13-inning game.  Paxton pitched six innings of shutout ball only to have his bullpen cough up the lead.  Morton pitched six solid innings himself, dogged only by a 2-run homer.  This game starts early enough that another extra-inning effort won’t keep people up too late.

Tuesday, April 11 – 9:10pm CDT
Joe Musgrove (0-0, 3.60) vs. Ariel Miranda (0-0, 3.60)

Here’s another repeat matchup, this time from Thursday’s game when the M’s got over the hump and spoiled a four-game sweep.  Both pitchers had nearly identical stat lines for the game: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB; Musgrove allowed more walks (4 vs. 2), Miranda gave up more taters (2 vs. 1).

Wednesday, April 12 – 9:10pm CDT
Mike Fiers (0-1, 1.50) vs. Yovani Gallardo (0-1, 5.40)

Gallardo is the only Seattle starter Houston has not yet faced this season.  He gave up three runs on eight hits in his five-plus innings against the Angels last Friday.  Correa, Reddick, and Springer have all hit him well, and the Astros beat him in his only start against them in 2016.

Fiers was let down by his offense (no run support) and defense (run scoring on catcher’s interference) in his six innings facing the Royals on Friday.  He was 1-0 with a 5.02 ERA in three starts against the Mariners in 2016.