MARINERS @ ASTROS

April 3-6, 2017

It’s Opening Day again.  Last year I waxed all sentimental-like on Opening Day, but this year I really just want to get down to business.  Lofty expectations followed by an infuriating inability to post even a competent W/L record against an otherwise-average division foe reminded me that, yes, my favorite sports team is, in fact, located in Houston.  Sure, the lineup saw a major overhaul in the offseason, and one SI writer is doubling down on his (in)famous prediction three years ago, but I refuse to drink the Kool-Aid.  At least not yet.

So, in the spirit of very cautious optimism coupled with a generous helping of skepticism, I give you the 2017 Opening Series Reaction/Excuse Spectrum.  Just like with premeditated political talking points, feel free to use any of these focus-group-tested¹ reactions or excuses with your friends, on the TZ, or in tweets to Donald Trump.

¹ “I don’t get it” – my wife

SOME CHANGES AT OWA

Win or lose, you won’t see a recap of the Opening Day game.  Or tomorrow’s game, or the game after that.  Like Old Yeller after that tussle with the wolf (spoiler alert), we’re finally putting the (attempts at) daily recaps out of their misery.  If you would like to read about the events of a day’s game, feel free to head over to Astros.com, Crawfish Boxes, or Astros County.

This year we’re going to try combining recaps and previews into a sort of series (pre/re)view.  You’ll get a summary of what just happened and a look at the series ahead, along with the lame attempts at humor hilarious, biting commentary you’ve come to expect.  Hopefully we’ll also be able to feature more editorial content, like MusicMan’s excellent 40 for 40 series.

WHAT HAPPENED DURING SPRING TRAINING?

The Astros…

• Went a cool .500 in the Grapefruit League
• Had two-fifths of the Astros rotation notch 7+ ERAs.  No biggie.
• Played somebody named Brock Dykxhoorn.  I hope it’s pronounced the way I think it is.

The Mariners…

• Nearly won the Cactus League with a 19-14 record.
• Played a catcher named Marcus Littlewood.

GAMES AND PROBABLES

Monday, April 3 – 7:10pm CDT
Felix Hernandez (2016: 11-8, 3.82) vs. Dallas Keuchel (2016: 9-12, 4.55)

Both pitchers are coming off of injury-shortened 2016 seasons, and both pitched well in the spring.  Seattle has had moderate success against Keuchel the last couple of years, but in the same span the Astros have not missed the King, especially at Minute Maid.  Shapes up to be an interesting game either way.

Tuesday, April 4 – 7:10pm CDT
Hisashi Iwakuma (2016: 16-12, 4.12) vs. Lance McCullers (2016: 6-5, 3.22)

The Astros beat Iwakuma twice in 2016 while the Mariners split two games against McCullers.  Both posted bad numbers (7+ ERA) in the spring.  I just want to see McCullers not get cute with hitters and improve upon his 1.56 WHIP from last year.

Wednesday, April 5 – 7:10pm CDT
James Paxton (2016: 6-7, 3.79) vs. Charlie Morton (2016: 1-1, 4.15)

Morton looks like an early bright spot in the rotation and barely any of the Mariners have significant experience hitting against him.  Paxton did well in the spring but a lesser Houston lineup didn’t have much trouble with him in 2016.

Thursday, April 6 – 7:10pm CDT
Ariel Miranda (2016: 5-2, 3.54) vs. Joe Musgrove (2016: 4-4, 4.06)

Both were August callups in 2016.  Miranda turned in an impressive 2.92 ERA in September to aid Seattle to its 4th-place wild card finish.  Musgrove let a handful of games get away from him but acquitted himself well for a rookie, as well as turning in a 2.08 ERA over seven spring starts.

SERIES PREVIEW

Astros @ Tigers

July 29-31, 2016

Friday, July 29 – 6:10pm CDT
Collin McHugh (7-6, 4.18) vs. Matt Boyd (1-2, 4.63)

McHugh continues his nice improvement.  Since his short start in Arlington he has six quality starts out of seven starts, the seventh start falling just one out short of qualifying.  He lasted 5.1 innings against the Tigers in April, allowing four runs on 10 hits.

Boyd has bounced between AAA and the majors this year and is currently on his third stint with the Tigers so far this season, having been back up since right before the break.  His last stint with the big club didn’t end well, with two straight appearances in June allowing six or more earned runs.  This one has gone much better, though, with three starts with no more than one earned run given up.  He hasn’t worked very deep into games, averaging only five innings per start.  The Astros saw him once last year and hung five runs on him in as many innings; Colby hit two homers off of him for a super-sweet 1.000/1.000/4.000 slash line.

Saturday, July 30 – 6:10pm CDT
Mike Fiers (7-4, 4.69) vs. Justin Verlander (10-6, 3.64)

I was wrong about Fiers.  After his hissyfit in Oakland I didn’t expect him to bounce back for seven innings of good ball like he did against the Angels.  Of course, being spotted an early 8-0 lead has to help quite a bit.  Like McHugh, Fiers also faced the Tigers in April and gave up four runs and three bombs in 5.2 innings, but got the win anyway thanks to being in the top 10 in baseball in run support.

After a particularly bad day at the office against Cleveland a few weeks ago – allowing eight runs in 4.2 innings – Verlander has had a nice string of five games, going 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA and working his ERA down below where it was before the start against the Indians.  Verlander beat the Astros earlier this year with a bare-minimum quality start, and shut them out for seven innings in 2015.

Sunday, July 31 – 12:10pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (6-10, 4.57) vs. Mike Pelfrey (3-9, 4.98)

This matchup is a repeat of the April 15 game against the Tigers, which the Astros won 1-0.

Keuchel is in the bottom 10 in baseball in run support.  Perhaps the best evidence of his lack of run support came in this matchup in April, allowing just five hits over eight shutout innings.  Another good data point came on Monday when he turned in another great outing against the Yanks but got only a leadoff home run in support of his effort.

Pelfrey is also in the bottom 10 in something.  Actually, he’s MLB-worst in something: WHIP, with 1.75, and leads the second-worst by over a tenth of a point.  He’s MLB-worst in something else, too: K/BB ratio, with 45 walks against just 48 K’s.  Only Martin Perez is anywhere close to that.  Pelfrey is still capable of pitching a good game, but this is a different team than the one that scored just one run on him in April, so I’m expecting the results to be different this weekend.

SERIES PREVIEW

Yankees @ Astros

July 25-27, 2016

I remember Sean Bergman.  You might remember Sean Bergman.  I’d bet that very few outside of this site remember Sean Bergman.

You probably shouldn’t remember Sean Bergman because he was an unremarkable starting pitcher for the Astros in the late 1990s.  Before coming to the Astros in 1998 he was unremarkable for the Tigers and Padres.  In 1998 he posted a career-best 12 wins and 3.72 ERA but was overshadowed by Shane Reynolds, Lima Time, and eventually Randy Johnson; in 1999 he was overshadowed by Reynolds, Lima, and Mike Hampton (in wins) and by Chris Holt (in losses).  The Astros cut him during the 1999 stretch run, and although he was picked up by the Braves he did not make their postseason roster.  He posted a 9+ ERA for the Twins in 2000, never pitched in the majors after that, and according to Wikipedia now coaches elementary school PE and middle school girls basketball in Ohio.

I think the only reason I remember Sean Bergman is because of a single game of his in 1999.  Entering games on June 1, the Astros were in first place (but only barely, after having been swept by the fucking Pirates) and Bergman was not pitching as well as he had the previous year.  Being 16 years old and fairly myopic, I made a prediction: Bergman would get his season back on track that night by throwing a complete game shutout and earning the win.  He actually did precisely that… sort of: he threw seven scoreless innings at the old County Stadium in Milwaukee, and after the Astros broke a scoreless tie in the 7th the game was called in the top of the 8th due to rain.  It was arguably his best start as an Astro and his last shutout starting appearance of his career.

The only reason I dredge up this sort-of-cool story about an unremarkable pitcher from two decades ago is because of the similarities in Alex Bregman’s and Sean Bergman’s last names.  I’m not clinically dyslexic but my brain sees them as the same name.  In fact, I almost wish that Bregman’s name was Bergman; “Bergman” rolls off the tongue a little easier and bears a strong resemblance to “Berkman”.

The storylines aren’t the same and the two guys appear to have very different career trajectories, but they’ll always be linked together in my head, just like cannibalism and the song “Farmer in the Dell”.  And if the Baseball Gods are real, there can be only one outcome for Alex Bregman’s debut: he must pitch a complete game shutout.

Monday, July 25 – 7:10pm CDT
Michael Pineda (4-9, 5.25) vs. Dallas Keuchel (6-9, 4.70)

Pineda had an awful start to his season, including giving up six runs to the Astros in his season opener, and ended May at 2-6 with a 6.92 ERA.  He has improved drastically since then, although he has had recent struggles against both types of Sox.  He’s coming off six shutout innings and eight strikeouts against the Orioles.

Don’t look now, but Keuchel has strung together six straight quality starts, and with his last start in Oakland he would’ve won his fourth straight decision if not for a late bullpen collapse.  It’s also well-documented that he loves him some pinstripe hitters: since 2014 he is 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA against Yankee lineups.

Tuesday, July 26 – 7:10pm CDT
CC Sabathia (5-8, 4.04) vs. Doug Fister (10-6, 3.42)

On June 16, Sabathia pitched six innings of one-run ball to beat the Twins and notch his ERA down to 2.20.  Things have been pretty terrible for him in his six starts since, going 0-4 with a 7.46 ERA and nearly doubling his season ERA.  Somehow he’s managed to pitch to the Astros only once since they joined the AL: in 2014 he got worked for six runs in as many innings.  That’s not terribly meaningful but it is what it is.

Fister was nails in his last start in Oakland, pitching seven shutout innings en route to his 10th win of the year.  He hasn’t faced the Yankees since 2013 and their roster has decent success against him over his career, hitting .288 with an .811 OPS.

Wednesday, July 27 – 7:10pm CDT
Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 3.00) vs. Lance McCullers (5-4, 3.33)

The Astros have never had too much trouble with Tanaka, beating him twice last year (including in the Wild Card Game) and scoring two runs off him on Opening Day this year.  After an up-and-down month of June, Tanaka has had an excellent July (2-0, 1.48) and the Yanks have won seven straight starts of his.

Despite floundering very late in a 9th inning he probably shouldn’t have seen, McCullers’ last start was easily his best of the year, going 8+ innings and allowing only one run against the Angels.  He has never faced the Yankees nor many of their hitters, but he does love himself some pitching at Minute Maid, where he is 4-1 with a 1.86 ERA this season.

SERIES PREVIEW

Angels @ Astros

July 22-24, 2016

The Astros made a highly anticipated roster move on Thursday night, sending AJ Reed down to AAA and calling up…

…Preston Tucker.

Friday, July 22 – 7:10pm CDT
Matt Shoemaker (5-9, 4.08) vs. Lance McCullers (4-4, 3.61)

Shoemaker is beginning to make an early bid for Astro-killer status.  The modern-day Francisco Cordova has piled up the innings against Houston this season, averaging over seven innings per start with a 2.02 ERA in those starts.  Fortunately this hasn’t necessarily translated into wins for the Angels who are 1-2 in Shoemaker’s starts against the Astros.  Shoemaker is coming off his best start of the year, a complete-game five-hit shutout of the Pale Hose in which he walked none and struck out 13.

McCullers deserved better than to get a loss in last weekend’s 1-0 game in Seattle.  He has one start against the Angels this year, allowing one run over 5.2 innings in a June no-decision.

Saturday, July 23 – 6:10pm CDT
Jered Weaver (8-7, 5.02) vs. Collin McHugh (6-6, 4.25)

The beginning of the season wasn’t very kind to Weaver but he’s riding some recent momentum with two straight starts of allowing one run.  The Astros have not had any trouble with him, though: in two starts against Houston he is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA and a whopping seven home runs allowed.

Four walks aside, McHugh last start in Seattle was a pretty good game, shutting out the M’s over six innings with ten strikeouts and earning his first win since May 30.  He has also been effective against the Angels this year with a 2.77 ERA against them in two starts.

Sunday, July 24 – 1:10pm CDT
Tim Lincecum (2-3, 6.59) vs. Mike Fiers (6-4, 4.75)

Lincecum’s return from the scrap heap has been all downhill since his six-inning one-run debut.  The Astros played a part in that, getting five runs in less than five innings in his third start.  He hasn’t finished a 6th inning or allowed fewer than three runs since his debut and his WHIP has nudged over 2.

Fiers may be listed as Houston’s probable starter right now, but after his bad start in Oakland I wouldn’t be surprised to see that change before Sunday.  Fiers now has two straight games in which he didn’t make it out of the 4th inning and I have to wonder if his outburst at Hinch in the dugout might, combined with Feldman’s huge resurgence in the bullpen, might be the beginning of the end for him as a starter.  Fiers has only faced the Angels once this year and it wasn’t good: seven runs allowed over 3.2 innings back in late May.

SERIES PREVIEW

Astros @ Athletics

July 18-20, 2016

After taking the weekend series in Seattle, the Astros get six games against the AL West’s bottomfeeders before a 13-game stretch of games against teams .500-ish or better.  First up are the A’s.  Let’s get right to the matchups.

Monday, July 18 – 9:05pm CDT
Mike Fiers (6-3, 4.35) vs. Kendall Graveman (5-6, 4.37)

Fiers has had trouble consistently pitching deep into games, and his last first-half start was no exception.  At just 3.1 innings against the Mariners it was his shortest start of the year.  His only start against the A’s this year was a good one: seven innings of two-run ball in late April that would have netted him a W if not for an 8th/9th inning bullpen collapse.

Graveman closed his first half well, with a one-run outing in Milwaukee followed by his start in Houston where he threw eight scoreless innings and nearly gave the game away in the 9th.  His other start against the Astros this year didn’t go as well, leaving the game in the 5th after giving up five runs on seven hits.

Tuesday, July 19 – 9:05pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (6-9, 4.80) vs. TBD/Dillon Overton (1-1, 11.42)

There’s a lot to be encouraged about by Keuchel’s recent performance; he hasn’t taken a loss since June 12 and the team has won all five of his starts since then.  His second-half tune-up against the A’s is coming on the heels of one of his best starts this year to end the first half, also against the A’s: seven innings, one run, four hits, and two walks.

Tuesday’s expected starter, Sean Manaea, was forced into five innings of emergency relief on Sunday after some freak circumstances.  Rich Hill only lasted five pitches due to a blister and his replacement, Andrew Triggs, left after the 1st after getting hit with a batted ball.  Both Manaea and Hill are stated as unavailable for this game and the A’s have not yet announced a starter at the time of this writing.  I found some speculation that it might be Dillon Overton, a lefty with a 2.98 ERA at AAA this year and a double-digit ERA in two MLB starts.  He’s on the wrong side of Tommy John surgery and only tops out in the upper 80s with his fastball, although his breaking pitches are effective.

Wednesday, July 20 – 2:35pm CDT
Doug Fister (9-6, 3.64) vs. Daniel Mengden (1-4, 5.54)

Fister only made it five innings against the Sea Hags last Friday but it was enough to get the win.  He has already faced the A’s three times this year and has been outstanding against them, currently 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA.

Fun stat: Mengden’s ERA has doubled since June 27, and the Astros played a big part in that, tagging him for six runs in 4.2 innings in Houston’s wild 10-9 win earlier this month.  His start last Friday was even worse, allowing six earnies in just 3.2 innings against the Blue Jays.