SERIES PREVIEW

Astros @ Mariners

July 15-17, 2016

Back from the break.  Trying to force myself to write.  It’s hard when I shot my wad with all my remotely funny ideas in the first couple months of the season, but I need to get back in the habit.  Previews may be a little more utilitarian for the next little while, so adjust expectations accordingly.

Would you believe that, through 89 games, the Astros are only one game worse than the 2015 squad?  Of course, at this point last year they weren’t several games behind the division leader but it nevertheless offers some perspective.  As bleak as things looked a couple months ago, the team is positioned well for a run at either the wild card or a Rangers team that is ripe for some reversion to the mean.

Now, though, we turn our attention to the Mariners.  After being as many as 10 games over .500 in late May, June and July weren’t kind to the M’s and they sit at just one game over .500 and three games behind the Astros.  Houston already more or less single-handedly buried the Halos, so it would be particularly nice to pad a bigger lead in second place.

Friday, July 15 – 9:10pm CDT
Doug Fister (8-6, 3.55) vs. James Paxton (2-3, 3.91)

Fister looked like he was going to stumble into the All-Star break, turning in two of his worst starts of the year against the Royals and White Sox.  He followed that up with the effective eight innings he pitched against the A’s to open the last series before the break.  That didn’t stop him from taking a loss, but what can you do.  Fister has been an excellent second-half pitcher in recent years; since 2013 his 2.92 ERA after the break is almost a full run lower than his first half numbers.  He has thrown two quality starts against the Mariners this year with a 1-1 record in those games.

Paxton has had a few cups of coffee in the bigs and wasn’t on the Mariners 25-man the last time they played the Astros.  After putting up a 3.97 ERA in the minors, he got his first MLB start of the year on June 1.  While inconsistent, he has been fairly effective overall, including allowing two runs over eight innings against the Royals in his last start.  The Astros have not seen him yet this year, but last year he took a no-decision for seven innings of two-run ball.

Saturday, July 16 – 3:10pm CDT
Lance McCullers (4-3, 3.79) vs. Hisashi Iwakuma (9-6, 4.25)

McCullers accounted for the other loss in the A’s series, lasting only four innings while giving up three runs.  His July 4 start against the M’s was arguably his best start of the year so far: seven innings, five hits, one walk, and 10 K’s.

Here’s an interesting stat for you: Iwakuma has only three no-decisions on the year, and hasn’t had one since the game after the Astros handed him a loss in early May.  He’s 8-2 since then despite his ERA hovering solidly in the low/mid 4’s.  He’s not blowing hitters away but he’s also not getting lit up either; he’s basically good for about six innings and 3-4 runs.

Sunday, July 17 – 3:10pm CDT
Collin McHugh (5-6, 4.50) vs. TBD

McHugh has been doing some work since his 4th inning exit in Arlington in mid-June when he had a 5.20 ERA, and has only allowed more than two earned runs once since then.  He’s 2-0 against the M’s already this year, although his slot in the rotation didn’t come around against them a couple weeks ago.

TBD took a tough-luck no decision in his last start before the break, but to his credit, he has a track record of being very unpredictable.  Advantage Mariners.

SERIES PREVIEW

Angels @ Astros

June 20-22, 2016

Things that have happened since the last series preview was posted:

• The fucking Rangers wasted no time in messing up my prediction that the Astros would not lose another series to them this year, and now they are running away with the goddamn league.
• The Astros are still in the thick of things for a postseason berth… along with eleven other teams.
• Will Harris’s ERA nearly doubled in one day.  Nobody cared.
• Dallas Keuchel still looks like he needs to be turned off and back on.
• Viewers got an extended reprieve from Alan Ashby in the TV booth and the results were predictably enjoyable.  Never in however many years of seeing Kevin Eschenfelder on TV have I ever thought that he should get a shot at the PBP job, but after his solid work in Arlington, hell, why not?

I honestly haven’t been able to see much of the Astros the last couple weeks.  Having two small children and a stir crazy wife makes for some busy summer weekends, and a couple of projects at work have hampered my ability to write previews.  Yes, kids, if you play your cards right, you can grow up to work at a job that doesn’t care if you spend two mornings a week writing about baseball on company time.

Not going to lie, either: the four-game series in Arlington took some wind out of my sails and, truly for the first time this year, caused me to temper my postseason expectations.  The West still seemed winnable on June 6; now, not so much.  At this point I’ll be happy with the team playing .500 ball at the break.

Monday, June 20 – 7:10pm CDT
Jhoulys Chacin (3-4, 5.00) vs. Doug Fister (7-3, 3.26)

Jhoulys Chacin breaks autocorrect more than Kim Kardashian breaks the Internet, and with less butt cleavage.  Chacin was acquired from the Bad News Braves in early May but did not face the Astros when they traveled to Anaheim at the end of the month.  In fact, Chacin tossed a complete game against the Tigers the day after the Astros series concluded, but he has struggled in the three starts since, unable to make it past the 6th inning.  Aside from a good showing against a scrubtastic 2013 Astros team, Chacin has no sizeable experience against Houston.

None of the Astros pitchers in this series have faced the Angels yet this year.  Fister is the first of those and continues to be pretty damn good, and rehashing that fact gets old after a while so I’ll try not to.  He has not faced the Angels since 2013 but he has faced their hitters quite a bit: in 114 AB against Fister, Angels hitters are .219/.282/.325 with just eight extra base hits against him.

Tuesday, June 21 – 7:10pm CDT
Hector Santiago (4-4, 5.30) vs. Collin McHugh (5-5, 4.89)

Like with Chacin, Houston has not yet seen Santiago this year and now might be as good a time as any.  After finishing April with a 3.34 ERA, he’s had a 6.86 ERA in nine starts since.  He turned in six innings of one-run ball against the lowly Twins last week, so there’s that.  Santiago gave Astro hitters fits last year with a 1.85 ERA and .143 opposing average in four starts.

Despite not factoring into the decision, McHugh held his own for the better part of 6.2 innings against Adam Wainwright and the Turds last week.  In three starts against them in 2015 McHugh was 2-0 with a 3.98 ERA.

Wednesday, June 22 – 1:10pm CDT
Matt Shoemaker (3-7, 4.50) vs. Lance McCullers (3-2, 4.24)

Shoemaker has a big problem with run support: he has been routinely pitching deep into games, not giving up many runs, and still taking a loss or no-decision.  He had a streak of five games where he pitched through the 7th or later, only allowing more than two runs once, and he went 1-2 over that stretch.  That one win, by the way, was against the Astros in his longest outing of the season, leaving the game with one out in the 9th and a seven-run lead.

McCullers pitched 6.2 strong innings against the Reds on Friday and was let off the hook for a loss before the team eventually lost in extra innings.  He did very well against the Angels last season, turning in a 2.52 ERA and 21 strikeouts in four starts.

SERIES PREVIEW

Astros @ Rangers

June 6-9, 2016

A potent case of writer’s block will prevent me from being any more creative with this preview, but maybe that’s not absolutely necessary.  After all, just a healthy dose of “fuck the Rangers” would be enough to pacify the locals.

No, today, I’ll simply be making a bold statement:

Whataburger Fancy Ketchup is not as good as Heinz ketchup.

Also:

The Astros will not lose another series to the Rangers this season.

Call it clarity, gas, what have you, but I felt a sense of calm in the aftermath of the last sweep.  Maybe we’ve been in the eye of the hurricane these last two weeks and shit is about to go sideways again…

…or maybe not.

On paper, the pitching matchups in this series don’t look good.

On the field, fuck the Rangers.

Monday, June 6 – 7:05pm CDT
Mike Fiers (3-3, 4.84) vs. Colby Lewis (5-0, 3.09)

Despite giving up just two runs over seven innings, Fiers was on the receiving end of one of those 2-1 losses the Astros suffered at the hands of the Rangers in May.  He’s coming off a very nice outing against the D’Backs: six innings, one run, 7 K’s.

Lewis shut down the Astros for seven innings a couple weeks ago, and his most recent game was another six-inning shutout affair against the Indians.  In between, though, he got rocked by the Angels for six runs in five innings… and still got the win.  Fuckers.

Tuesday, June 7 – 7:05pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (3-7, 5.50) vs. Cole Hamels (5-1, 3.39)

We’d have to break out a microscope to look for positives in Keuchel’s starts against the Rangers this year.  22 hits and 13 runs in 12 innings is just plain awful.

Hamels has punked Houston twice this year, and last time had the benefit of what might as well have been a 47-run lead as he cruised for eight innings and racked up about 30 strikeouts.  Since then the Pirates beat him up for six runs (five earned) in 4.2 innings, and he gave up three runs over seven innings in a loss to the Indians.

Wednesday, June 8 – 7:05pm CDT
Doug Fister (5-3, 3.51) vs. Yu Darvish (2-0, 3.38)

The Astros have won seven straight games that Fister has started.  Cool story, bro.

Darvish came off the DL right after the Rangers’ last series with the Astros, and his starts have been good, if brief.  The team has been careful with him to not throw too many pitches, resulting in games against the Pirates and Mariners with 5 and 5.2 IP, respectively, with no more than three runs allowed.

Thursday, June 9 – 1:05pm CDT
Collin McHugh (5-4, 4.97) vs. Martin Perez (4-4, 3.24)

If this matchup were Craigslist then McHugh and Perez would be posting on Missed Connections.  Neither pitcher has pitched in the season series yet this year.

McHugh left Saturday’s game against the A’s in the 6th inning with the Astros ahead 5-4, before a blown save robbed him of a W.  Although the Rangers didn’t have much trouble with McHugh in 2015 (4.43 ERA, .344 opposing average), McHugh was still 3-0 against them in four games.

Perez has won three straight starts thanks to some good pitching and healthy run support.  Almost the opposite of McHugh, the Astros didn’t score many runs off Perez in 2015 (2.00 ERA in three starts), but they did hit him well (.324 opposing average) and he was only 1-2 against Houston.