Good point, however I contend that Pence was not seen by major league teams as a guy who could hurt them in the lineup so he got a lot of challenge pitches. Right in his happy zone and give it up for Pence, he knows what to do with those types of pitches. Is 2007 indicative of his talent? Yes, yes it is. Is it indicative of his understanding how to play at the major league level? No. No it isn't. See the difference?
I don't know if you've seen the level of play at AAA or AA, but suffice it to say, you don't just get fed fastballs in challenge situations in AAA. You are just as liable to see a slider on a 3-2 count or a 2-0 count as you would see a fastball. That's what Johnson needs right now. It was what Pence needed in 2007 to an extent because now he's having to learn this at the major league level. If he doesn't learn it, he'll be an average player hitting in the lower rung of a lineup for the rest of his career. Mind you, that's not a bad gig because when we say a lower rung player, we're still talking about an elite player when measured against all those players who never get the chance to play at that level (and most of them do not have the talent that Hunter has). I never question Hunter's talent (at least not when hitting a baseball, when it comes to playing CF, there is plenty to talk about there!), in 2007 it was about whether he was *ready* for the majors. His hitting was outstanding, but he didn't prove he was ready as evidenced by 2008. It just proved he is one very talented hitter... when all things are in his favor.
The major leagues are about adjustments and to have a better handle on adjustments, sometimes the AAA experience is what does it for a player (sometimes it doesn't). I would dare say that Pence is in no way the same as Albert Pujols who broke into the majors without any AAA experience and has not looked back since. So you may be wrong about what you thought about Pence in 2007, but I know what I thought and it still holds true today.
I completely agree, Noe. There's no doubt that many of the adjustments and challenges Pence faced in 2008 and still faces today could have at least partially been dealt with through a more extensive stint in AAA. I'd agree that it would be to his
long-term benefit as a player to spend more time in AAA. However, even with his flaws in approach, he was still an excellent hitter in 2007 and a good hitter in 2008. As such, it was to the Astros'
short-term benefit as a team that he be called up (and make no mistake, he made them a much better team than they were with Burke/Lane in CF).
For me, of course I prioritize the long-term development of a player ahead of buying a team a couple of extra wins in 2009. But the Astros, at least in recent years, have taken a decidedly short-term approach -- i.e. go all out to be in the mix in September in a given year, and worry about the rest later. My concern is that Pence's initial success would make them more open, not less, to a "hot spring" scenario carrying over into the season and catching lightning in a bottle. I hope I'm wrong and underestimating WadeSmith.
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