Johnson

[MusicMan]

Am I the only one worried that the hot spring training could set Chris Johnson up to fail in the regular season by promoting him to early, a la Towles?

[Andyzipp]

If WadeSmith has their way, he'll open up in AAA.  If the marketing department has any say in the final roster, it's a different story.

On the other hand, being on the opening day roster is a nice carrot to dangle for Johnson, and there are several that think he couldn't be any worse than the Boone/Blum platoon.

[Jacksonian]

If WadeSmith has their way, he'll open up in AAA.  If the marketing department has any say in the final roster, it's a different story.

On the other hand, being on the opening day roster is a nice carrot to dangle for Johnson, and there are several that think he couldn't be any worse than the Boone/Blum platoon.

My sense is something of a repeat of the Pence promotion in 07.

[Noe]

You'd think that they learned a little bit from the Hunter Pence hot spring (or Luke Scott hot spring of several years ago).  Johnson, like Pence before him, got promoted to AAA late last year and had a so-so time of it.  Pence benefitted from a really good AFL experience and carried that right into spring.  Pence tends to ride emotion and confidence when playing baseball, so it stands to reason that he was really up for doing well his spectacular spring.  So what I'm saying is, don't ever underestimate the power of Pam and what she would think about appeasing fans to bring in more business dollars to the cofers.

Baseball people have a say, but you see how far that got Purpura.

[Gizzmonic]

You'd think that they learned a little bit from the Hunter Pence hot spring (or Luke Scott hot spring of several years ago).  Johnson, like Pence before him, got promoted to AAA late last year and had a so-so time of it.  Pence benefitted from a really good AFL experience and carried that right into spring.  Pence tends to ride emotion and confidence when playing baseball, so it stands to reason that he was really up for doing well his spectacular spring.  So what I'm saying is, don't ever underestimate the power of Pam and what she would think about appeasing fans to bring in more business dollars to the cofers.

Baseball people have a say, but you see how far that got Purpura.

Purp also had a man-crush on Ensberg, Lane, and Burke.

[Noe]

Purp also had a man-crush on Ensberg, Lane, and Burke.

Huh?  How so?

[Bob Sakamano]

You'd think that they learned a little bit from the Hunter Pence hot spring (or Luke Scott hot spring of several years ago).  Johnson, like Pence before him, got promoted to AAA late last year and had a so-so time of it.  Pence benefitted from a really good AFL experience and carried that right into spring.  Pence tends to ride emotion and confidence when playing baseball, so it stands to reason that he was really up for doing well his spectacular spring.  So what I'm saying is, don't ever underestimate the power of Pam and what she would think about appeasing fans to bring in more business dollars to the cofers.

Baseball people have a say, but you see how far that got Purpura.

I agree that Pam has too much influence on what should be baseball decisions, but I'm not so sure what the Astros would take out of the Hunter Pence hot spring (assuming you're talking about 2007) as a reason to either not place Johnson on the opening day roster or promote at some point in April. Pence came in and was honestly one of the catalysts for the Astros' offense in 2007. He was fantastic. His problems, at least on a consistent basis, didn't show up until 2008.

Now, the Luke Scott situation is a perfect parallel, and I agree with the premise that a hot spring doesn't mean Chris Johnson is ready for the majors. But Pence proved a lot of us wrong and was a very, very good player in 2007 and proved he belonged at the ML level.

[Noe]

I agree that Pam has too much influence on what should be baseball decisions, but I'm not so sure what the Astros would take out of the Hunter Pence hot spring (assuming you're talking about 2007) as a reason to either not place Johnson on the opening day roster or promote at some point in April. Pence came in and was honestly one of the catalysts for the Astros' offense in 2007. He was fantastic. His problems, at least on a consistent basis, didn't show up until 2008.

Now, the Luke Scott situation is a perfect parallel, and I agree with the premise that a hot spring doesn't mean Chris Johnson is ready for the majors. But Pence proved a lot of us wrong and was a very, very good player in 2007 and proved he belonged at the ML level.

Good point, however I contend that Pence was not seen by major league teams as a guy who could hurt them in the lineup so he got a lot of challenge pitches.  Right in his happy zone and give it up for Pence, he knows what to do with those types of pitches.  Is 2007 indicative of his talent?  Yes, yes it is.  Is it indicative of his understanding how to play at the major league level?  No. No it isn't.  See the difference?

I don't know if you've seen the level of play at AAA or AA, but suffice it to say, you don't just get fed fastballs in challenge situations in AAA.  You are just as liable to see a slider on a 3-2 count or a 2-0 count as you would see a fastball.  That's what Johnson needs right now.  It was what Pence needed in 2007 to an extent because now he's having to learn this at the major league level.  If he doesn't learn it, he'll be an average player hitting in the lower rung of a lineup for the rest of his career.  Mind you, that's not a bad gig because when we say a lower rung player, we're still talking about an elite player when measured against all those players who never get the chance to play at that level (and most of them do not have the talent that Hunter has).  I never question Hunter's talent (at least not when hitting a baseball, when it comes to playing CF, there is plenty to talk about there!), in 2007 it was about whether he was *ready* for the majors.  His hitting was outstanding, but he didn't prove he was ready as evidenced by 2008.  It just proved he is one very talented hitter... when all things are in his favor.

The major leagues are about adjustments and to have a better handle on adjustments, sometimes the AAA experience is what does it for a player (sometimes it doesn't).  I would dare say that Pence is in no way the same as Albert Pujols who broke into the majors without any AAA experience and has not looked back since.  So you may be wrong about what you thought about Pence in 2007, but I know what I thought and it still holds true today.

[Duman]

You'd think that they learned a little bit from the Hunter Pence hot spring (or Luke Scott hot spring of several years ago).  Johnson, like Pence before him, got promoted to AAA late last year and had a so-so time of it.  Pence benefitted from a really good AFL experience and carried that right into spring.  Pence tends to ride emotion and confidence when playing baseball, so it stands to reason that he was really up for doing well his spectacular spring.  So what I'm saying is, don't ever underestimate the power of Pam and what she would think about appeasing fans to bring in more business dollars to the cofers.

Baseball people have a say, but you see how far that got Purpura.

Johnson is not the same class player as Pence.  He may be one of the best we have now but he is not in Pences class based on what he has done so far. 

Hunter had not played at AAA before 2007.  He spent all of 2006 at CC.  His AFL experience was good but short due to the DUI situation.  When he started at RR for 2007, he did better 25 games, .326 avg, .945 OPS) than he had done in the AFL (15 games, .339 avg, .943 OPS).  So his call up may have been premature but he had been riding a hot streak for a while. 

Johnson got a taste of AAA and was not that impressive(.218 avg).  His AFL was solid (.296) but not overly exciting.  I would be stunned if he made the leap to MLB out of spring or before the All Star Break. It would take an injury to one of the Boone/Blum platoon for him to show up earlier IMO.

[Noe]

Johnson is not the same class player as Pence.  He may be one of the best we have now but he is not in Pences class based on what he has done so far. 

Hunter had not played at AAA before 2007.  He spent all of 2006 at CC.  His AFL experience was good but short due to the DUI situation.  When he started at RR for 2007, he did better 25 games, .326 avg, .945 OPS) than he had done in the AFL (15 games, .339 avg, .943 OPS).  So his call up may have been premature but he had been riding a hot streak for a while. 

Johnson got a taste of AAA and was not that impressive(.218 avg).  His AFL was solid (.296) but not overly exciting.  I would be stunned if he made the leap to MLB out of spring or before the All Star Break. It would take an injury to one of the Boone/Blum platoon for him to show up earlier IMO.

All the more reason he needs the AAA experience.

[HudsonHawk]

So what I'm saying is, don't ever underestimate the power of Pam and what she would think about appeasing fans to bring in more business dollars to the cofers.

Speaking of Pam, she was mugging with some guy in the Diamond Club at the Rice/A&M game on Saturday night.  It was not a pretty sight.

[MusicMan]

Speaking of Pam, she was mugging with some guy in the Diamond Club at the Rice/A&M game on Saturday night.  It was not a pretty sight.

That is both shocking and horrifying.

[Gizzmonic]

Speaking of Pam, she was mugging with some guy in the Diamond Club at the Rice/A&M game on Saturday night.  It was not a pretty sight.

"Hand over the wallet or I show you my face again!"

[Andyzipp]

That is both shocking and horrifying.

And surprising.  She gives off a flannel sort of vibe.

[MusicMan]

And surprising.  She gives off a flannel sort of vibe.

I was specifically shocked at "guy".

[Bob Sakamano]

Good point, however I contend that Pence was not seen by major league teams as a guy who could hurt them in the lineup so he got a lot of challenge pitches.  Right in his happy zone and give it up for Pence, he knows what to do with those types of pitches.  Is 2007 indicative of his talent?  Yes, yes it is.  Is it indicative of his understanding how to play at the major league level?  No. No it isn't.  See the difference?

I don't know if you've seen the level of play at AAA or AA, but suffice it to say, you don't just get fed fastballs in challenge situations in AAA.  You are just as liable to see a slider on a 3-2 count or a 2-0 count as you would see a fastball.  That's what Johnson needs right now.  It was what Pence needed in 2007 to an extent because now he's having to learn this at the major league level.  If he doesn't learn it, he'll be an average player hitting in the lower rung of a lineup for the rest of his career.  Mind you, that's not a bad gig because when we say a lower rung player, we're still talking about an elite player when measured against all those players who never get the chance to play at that level (and most of them do not have the talent that Hunter has).  I never question Hunter's talent (at least not when hitting a baseball, when it comes to playing CF, there is plenty to talk about there!), in 2007 it was about whether he was *ready* for the majors.  His hitting was outstanding, but he didn't prove he was ready as evidenced by 2008.  It just proved he is one very talented hitter... when all things are in his favor.

The major leagues are about adjustments and to have a better handle on adjustments, sometimes the AAA experience is what does it for a player (sometimes it doesn't).  I would dare say that Pence is in no way the same as Albert Pujols who broke into the majors without any AAA experience and has not looked back since.  So you may be wrong about what you thought about Pence in 2007, but I know what I thought and it still holds true today.

I completely agree, Noe. There's no doubt that many of the adjustments and challenges Pence faced in 2008 and still faces today could have at least partially been dealt with through a more extensive stint in AAA. I'd agree that it would be to his long-term benefit as a player to spend more time in AAA. However, even with his flaws in approach, he was still an excellent hitter in 2007 and a good hitter in 2008. As such, it was to the Astros' short-term benefit as a team that he be called up (and make no mistake, he made them a much better team than they were with Burke/Lane in CF).

For me, of course I prioritize the long-term development of a player ahead of buying a team a couple of extra wins in 2009. But the Astros, at least in recent years, have taken a decidedly short-term approach -- i.e. go all out to be in the mix in September in a given year, and worry about the rest later. My concern is that Pence's initial success would make them more open, not less, to a "hot spring" scenario carrying over into the season and catching lightning in a bottle. I hope I'm wrong and underestimating WadeSmith.

[Gizzmonic]

I don't know if this is the right place to say this, but apparently Abercrombie booted a ball in left field, and the announcer played the classic "wah wah wah WAAAAAAH" horn noise.  I didn't know they did that anymore!

[pravata]

Ortiz had a blog with Ricky Bennett today, here's what he said about Johnson and Bogusevic

I would say Chris Johnson is really playing well so far this spring. I think the experience of being in major league camp for the first time is giving him a lot of confidence. And if he continues to play at this rate, maybe at some point he could become our regular third baseman.

The most important thing for Brian to do right now in his development is to get at-bats. With our outfield situation being set at the major league level he wouldn't get that opportunity at this time, so he's more likely to go to the minor leagues to play every day and continue to get consistent at-bats, which will help his long-term development.

[Noe]

My concern is that Pence's initial success would make them more open, not less, to a "hot spring" scenario carrying over into the season and catching lightning in a bottle. I hope I'm wrong and underestimating WadeSmith.

Well, would not that concern had been put to rest with JR Towles and his spectacular September in 07 and his nose-dive in 2008?  I mean, he proved he could hit in the major leagues that September and then he proved he had to learn how to "play" in the majors the following year.  I think the real concern of many who follow the team is that the status quo of waiting until kids are in their late twenties until they get called up is still in vogue and love to point to Pence as an example of how you can and should take a flyer on a young player.

One problem though, during Hunsicker's tenure, he promoted young kids straight from AA as well, guys like Carlos Hernandez and Kirk Saarloos come to mind.  And they did well for awhile. So I believe management takes each case individually and not necessarily as a organizational approach.  I would consider the organizational approach more in line with drafting college kids because you can move them through the minors quicker.  That is different than saying a organizational approach exist that says that a player must have X amount of time in AAA before they can and should be promoted.  Pence's game had flaws in it and no one would listen when he was tearing up the AFL and then the spring training of '07 and on into a fantastic run (then a month layoff because of injury) hitting a baseball at the big leagues.  The infusion that Houston got from Pence was ethusiasm to play the game when it was becoming a grind for many of the players.  Well done on that part, but I hardly expected them to come out and say "This kid is ready!" (which I don't think anyone outside of some media and a lot fans did).  Pence has to learn to play in the major leagues.  Period.  If he does, he'll be the guy that Drayton (and others) thinks he can be... the next Berkman, Bagwell or Biggio for the team to market.  If Pence doesn't learn or improve and keep flailing away at everything without regard of situational play and of course his erratic play in right becomes more honed, he's destined to be a JAG in the majors, not the marketing marvel that some see him as.

I would think those who are Pence fans (and I am one) want to see that improvement in the kid and not blindly accept that he had an off season last year and that he'll somehow get back to where he was in 2007 as a major leaguer.  I say he will only if he learns how to play in the majors at the level of play that is required to "stay" here (not just "get" here).  Time will tell, but he didn't really do that (learn how to play in the grind of a major league season) in '07 and it definitely showed in '08.  That is no way is me saying he isn't talented, far from it.  I am just saying I am not onboard with those who said he was ready to be a major leaguer in '07.  We were watching a very different Hunter Pence if that is the case.

[chuck]

I love Chris Johnson as a player but believe he has zero business on the big league team at this point. I'm a believer that he'll be the answer at third next year and for a long time to come thereafter, but I'd love for him to spend an entire year at Round Rock.

Bogusevic is 100% hitter. I love his approach at the plate. He very rarely has bad at bats and very rarely does not hit the ball hard. I believe that he could hit ML pitching effectively at this point, but he's not going to play with the big league team, either, unless Bourn totally tanks at the plate, and probably not even then because Ed Wade loves Bourn more than he loves his own mother. But I can see Bogusevic maturing into a monster hitter. You guys who follow Round Rock should be in for a fun year.

[Noe]

I love Chris Johnson as a player but believe he has zero business on the big league team at this point. I'm a believer that he'll be the answer at third next year and for a long time to come thereafter, but I'd love for him to spend an entire year at Round Rock.

Bogusevic is 100% hitter. I love his approach at the plate. He very rarely has bad at bats and very rarely does not hit the ball hard. I believe that he could hit ML pitching effectively at this point, but he's not going to play with the big league team, either, unless Bourn totally tanks at the plate, and probably not even then because Ed Wade loves Bourn more than he loves his own mother. But I can see Bogusevic maturing into a monster hitter. You guys who follow Round Rock should be in for a fun year.

This is what I'm hearing about both players as well.  Bogey has a great eye, nice approach and is flat out a hitter who will give you a good AB most of the time.  Both Castro and Bogey have sweet left handed swings.  He is flying under the radar, but I really see him as insurance in case either Bourn or Pence aren't playing well this season.  By September of this year, we will know how well this young man is doing in RR and conversely how well either Bourn or Pence are doing in the bigs to keep their jobs.  I frankly do not believe Pence is untouchable, unless they could move Lee to another team and get back prospects and thus move Pence to LF.  However that would leave a huge gapping hole at cleanup and unless someone could tell me who is going to bat in that important part of the lineup, why should the Astros move Lee?

[toddthebod]

The Astros probably couldn't move Lee even if they wanted to.  Don't you know that his is one of the 44 worst contracts in baseball.

http://www.springtraining09.com/features/the-44-worst-contracts-in-base.php

[Jacksonian]

Ortiz had a blog with Ricky Bennett today, here's what he said about Johnson and Bogusevic

I would say Chris Johnson is really playing well so far this spring. I think the experience of being in major league camp for the first time is giving him a lot of confidence. And if he continues to play at this rate, maybe at some point he could become our regular third baseman.

The most important thing for Brian to do right now in his development is to get at-bats. With our outfield situation being set at the major league level he wouldn't get that opportunity at this time, so he's more likely to go to the minor leagues to play every day and continue to get consistent at-bats, which will help his long-term development.

He also said directly that Johnson is major league ready defensively right now.

[hostros7]

The Astros probably couldn't move Lee even if they wanted to.  Don't you know that his is one of the 44 worst contracts in baseball.

http://www.springtraining09.com/features/the-44-worst-contracts-in-base.php

Admittedly biased, but Lee is by far one of the best producers on that list.  Calling it a bad contract is predicated on the belief that he will become too fat or whatever to play out the end, imo. 

[moriartp]

I'd normally just use the standard cliché when commenting on a list like that, but in Tim Dierkes' case, hindsight is apparently 20/200.

[Bench]

He also said directly that Johnson is major league ready defensively right now.

I did not realize that his glove was on that level.  Good to know.

[Noe]

I did not realize that his glove was on that level.  Good to know.

He has a great arm, but when I saw him play (and admittedly he was probably very nervous his first time in AAA) he was very erratic.  His footwork left a lot to be desired and he just didn't look that quick to me, doing more of the ole style of catching the ball.  But when he did throw the ball, there was no doubt he had a cannon.  Most of his throws were really low though and most of what I saw was he was just rushing his throws rather than setting up properly to set his feet and then throw the guy out.

[jester9450]

If Blum and Boone didn't start out hitting and he does well bring him up.

[chuck]

Bogusevic will push to play this year I think and will encourage Messrs. Bourn and Pence to stay on top of their respective games. Next year should be very interesting if the team does get through this season with Lee, Bourn and Pence as the OF core. Bogusevic could bat cleanup, I think, be he's also surprisingly fast and from what I can tell doesn't swing at a lot of bad pitches (he's certainly not seeing a lot of top line pitching talent right now though) and so I can daydream about him hitting 2nd. I'm not trying to be hyperbolic but I really think Bogusevic batting second would look a lot like Beltran batting second once Beltran got it going.

Castro looks fine behind the plate. I haven't seen him get tested by handling a situation with a lot of runners on base, but he looks as comfortable as can be, and I love his arm. He's not Q, of course, but I think he looks a lot better throwing the ball than Towles.

[Reuben]

He has a great arm, but when I saw him play (and admittedly he was probably very nervous his first time in AAA) he was very erratic.  His footwork left a lot to be desired and he just didn't look that quick to me, doing more of the ole style of catching the ball.  But when he did throw the ball, there was no doubt he had a cannon.  Most of his throws were really low though and most of what I saw was he was just rushing his throws rather than setting up properly to set his feet and then throw the guy out.

Johnson looked pretty good in the field today (to my untrained eye) except for a pop by the Astros' dugout that he botched. He was not always a 3B, correct?

[moriartp]

Correct. 2008 was his first season playing the position full-time, I believe.

[astr0s4life]

Actually muircheartaigh, You're wrong. He started in 2007. 

[Russe]

Johnson looked pretty good in the field today (to my untrained eye) except for a pop by the Astros' dugout that he botched. He was not always a 3B, correct?

Fwiw, he also looked pretty good against the Braves last week.

[Jacksonian]

Actually muircheartaigh, You're wrong. He started in 2007. 

He became a full-time 3b after being promoted to Salem half way through the 2007 season.  Prior to that he played all over the place.  2008 was his first full season at 3b.

[Noe]

He became a full-time 3b after being promoted to Salem half way through the 2007 season.  Prior to that he played all over the place.  2008 was his first full season at 3b.

Tis what I thought as well, but didn't want to burst our Clarkie's bubble, seeing as how he made a splash his first time out and all.  Goooooo Clarkies!!!