ASTROS vs. YANKEES
American League Championship Series

It’s not the ALCS matchup we expected – not in May when the Astros went to Cleveland, and certainly not when the postseason started – but it is the matchup we wanted.  Although it looked for all the world that the Astros and Indians were on an ALCS collision course, the Yankees made a dramatic 0-2 comeback to take their series.  Not only is the matchup better for the Astros (on paper, at least), it gives them home field advantage.

Despite the 10-win discrepancy in the regular season, and the fact that the Astros went 5-2 against New York this year, this series won’t be a layup for the Astros.  And despite bouncing baseball’s hottest team down the stretch, the Yankees face a tough challenge as well.

PITCHING

Regular season:

Team ERA: Houston 4.12 (11th), New York 3.72 (5th)
Starter ERA: Houston 4.03 (6th), New York 3.98 (5th)
Bullpen ERA: Houston 4.27 (17th), New York 3.34 (3rd)
Quality starts: Houston 67 (18th), New York 75 (10th)
K/9: Houston 9.91 (2nd), New York 9.69 (3rd)
BAA: Houston .240 (6th), New York .228 (T-1st)
OPS against: Houston .720 (9th), New York .680 (3rd)

Postseason ERA: Houston 4.63, New York 3.21

Let’s not bury the lede here: the Yankees have some scary-good pitching.  It’s been that way in the postseason as well, and it largely starts with the work they’ve gotten in relief.  Aroldis Chapman, Tommy Kahnle, Jaime Garcia, David Robertson, and Dellin Betances combined for a 0.71 ERA and 37 K’s against a Cleveland offense that was hardly incompetent.

The starting rotation hasn’t been as good in October, Masahiro Tanaka’s seven shutout innings in Game 3 notwithstanding.  Luis Severino barely got his uniform on before hitting the showers in the Wild Card game, although his ALDS start was much better (7 IP, 3 ER).  CC Sabathia had two good, if somewhat abbreviated, starts against the Indians.  Sonny Gray gave up three runs and four walks in 3.1 innings.

As we know, the Astros’ postseason ERA is thrown off kilter by the 10-3 loss in Game 3.  Also, in the regular season, the Astros’ 5.52 ERA against the Yankees was their worst against any team in 2017.  Most of the offenders for that are probably not going to be on the ALCS roster (Feliz, Diaz, Hoyt, Sipp, and Guduan all had ERAs over 6) so there’s that, but shaky outings by Morton and Devenski, and a real stinker by Harris, shouldn’t be overlooked either.

Then again, the Yankees’ 5.75 ERA and .822 OPS allowed against the Astros in 2017 were also their worst against any opponent in 2017.

OFFENSE

Regular season:

Runs scored: Houston 896 (1st), New York 858 (2nd)
Home runs: Houston 238 (2nd), New York 241 (1st)
Extra-base hits: Houston 604 (1st), New York 530 (8th)
Batting average: Houston .282 (1st), New York .262 (7th)
OBP: Houston .346 (1st), New York .339 (T-2nd)
Strikeouts: Houston 1,087 (1st), New York 1,386 (19th)
Stolen bases: Houston 98 in 140 tries (70%; 23rd), New York 90 in 112 tries (80.36%; 1st)
GIDP: Houston 139 (T-24th), New York 119 (10th)

Postseason slash line: Houston .333/.402/.571, New York .213/.302/.391

The Yankees and Astros were the top two MLB teams in runs scored and home runs, and the same can be said of the postseason.  I was kind of surprised to see the huge disparity in the postseason slash lines, but the Astros have more hits, more doubles, more triples, and nearly as many runs and home runs in 60 fewer ABs.  Aaron Judge went 1×20 with 16 K’s in the ALDS and was almost a complete non-factor in the series.  Aaron Hicks (.316) led the Yankees in batting while Didi Gregorious (.435, .588) led the team in on-base and slugging.

We’re about to find out how much of a factor Cleveland’s pitching was.

DEFENSE

Statistically speaking, the Astros and Yankees were fairly comparable in the number of errors committed in 2017.  The typical outfield of Gardner in LF, Hicks/Ellsbury in CF, and Judge in RF combined for 20 outfield assists.

Gary Sanchez tied for both the most passed balls (16) and most errors as a catcher (13) in MLB.  He did throw out 38% of runners, though, which puts him in the top 10.

OVERALL

This has the potential to be a very hard-fought series.  The Astros knocked around some great pitchers to get to the ALCS and have had significant success against the Yankees this year, even in New York with Aura and Mystique working the pole.  The Yankees got past the best pitching staff in the league while also keeping a potent offense at bay.  Whoever wins this series will have earned it.

ALCS GAME 1

Friday, October 13, 7:08pm CDT – Minute Maid Park
Masahiro Tanaka (1-0, 0.00) vs. Dallas Keuchel (1-0, 1.59)

It’s a rematch of the 2015 Wild Card game, just in a different venue.

This is Tanaka’s second postseason, and in his only October start this year he held the Indians scoreless for seven innings in Game 3.  Tanaka’s 2017 season was the worst of his MLB career, going 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA.  He set a new career high for home runs allowed (35) despite also setting a career high in strikeouts.  In mid-June he had a 6.34 ERA, but a solid summer whittled it down to 4.54 by early September.  That last month was feast or famine: in five starts he allowed 17 earned runs, and 14 of them came in just two starts.

No team has hit Tanaka harder than the Astros and it’s not even close.  In four career regular season starts he is 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA; his next worst ERA against another club is a full four runs lower.  Houston’s .381 OBP and .753 slugging percentage against him are also the best any team has done against him.  This was certainly borne out earlier this year in the Jeter Jerkoff, when Tanaka couldn’t finish the 2nd inning while the Astros went yard on him four times, including a granny by Bregman.

Keuchel, on the other hand, has had a ton of success against the Yankees.  In six starts against them he is 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA – his best against any team he has faced more than twice in his career – and Yankee hitters have managed just a .452 OPS against him.  As we know, Keuchel blanked the Yanks in their house in the 2015 Wild Card game, and this year allowed just one unearned run over six innings in the same game that this happened.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Correa vs. Tanaka: 10 AB, .500/.545/1.100
Springer vs Tanaka: 9 AB, .444/.545/1.111
Altuve vs. Tanaka: 11 AB, .364/.364/.727
Maybin vs. Tanaka: 8 AB, 0-fer

Headley vs. Keuchel: 22 AB, .273/.273/.455
Gregorius vs. Keuchel: 10 AB, .200/.200/.300
Hicks vs. Keuchel: 11 AB, .182/.357/.455
Castro vs. Keuchel: 14 AB, .143/.143/.214
Ellsbury vs. Keuchel: 16 AB, .125/.176/.125

ALDS GAME 3 POST-MORTEM
Red Sox 10, Astros 3

The first two innings followed a familiar formula for this ALDS: the Astros staked an early longball-driven lead, then let the Red Sox have some early traffic to get a run back.

That’s when the script wildly diverged from what played out the first two games.  Short of injuries, nearly everything that could go wrong for the Astros did go wrong in Game 3:

• Defensive miscues – errors by Marwin and Correa; Springer giving up on a fly ball that would have been catchable at the CF wall, allowing Boston to take the lead later in the inning
• Shoddy pitching – Liriano coughing up the lead with a no-doubter blast to his first batter; McCullers and Devenski both getting touched up
• Sudden inability to push runs across the plate – 3 runs on 13 fucking hits, 10 LOB
• Just plain bad luck – Reddick having a would-be soul-crushing 3-run home run stolen by Betts at the short wall in RF, then later having a Bradley fly ball bounce out of his glove and over the fence for a 3-run home run (thanks, BBGs, for that little dose of tragic irony)

Here’s hoping they got it out of their system and can shut this shit down without a win-or-go-home game in Houston on Wednesday.  Otherwise, I’ll be nervous-cleaning my house while the game is on.  The lopsided score gave the Red Sox the luxury of not using Kimbrel, so he’ll be good for up to two innings of relief on Monday if the situation warrants.

I’m going to go ahead and say it: Ted Barrett’s strike zone today was worse than Angel Hernandez’s on Friday.  He was abominably inconsistent on inside, outside, and low pitches.

Also, I’d hate to be the janitor tasked with cleaning up the FS1 broadcast booth after today’s game.  It must have been coated with a staggering amount of human reproductive material thanks to various aspects of today’s Red Sox win.

ALDS GAME 4 – HOU leads 2-1

Monday, October 9, 12:08pm CDT – Fenway Park
Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62) vs. Rick Porcello (11-17, 4.65)

Morton has only one postseason appearance under his belt, putting in a good outing in the 2013 NLDS Game 5 which his Pirates lost 2-1.  Like Peacock, he also had a steady year in 2017, injuries notwithstanding.  His ERA always hovered somewhere between 3.50 and 4, with only slight blips above 4 in May and July.  The biggest knock against him has been his longevity in games, although that improved as the season went on: he lasted at least six innings in nine of his 14 starts after the break.  He also closed the season very strong, going 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA and over a 5:1 K:BB ratio in September.

The Red Sox were one of those September wins for Morton as he beat them 3-2 in the final week of the season, holding them to two runs over 5.1 innings.  Before then his only other career appearance against Boston was a scoreless start in 2014.

Porcello has a decent volume of postseason work, having been on a number of Tigers and Red Sox playoff teams dating back to 2011.  In ten total playoff appearances (including his scoreless inning in Game 1 of this series) he is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA, and much of that damage was done in his three postseason starts where he has a 5.82 ERA.  Porcello followed up his 22-win 2016 season with 17 losses, and he closed the season with his second-worst month of the year, clocking a 5.93 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in September.

The Astros did not see Porcello in the last series of the year, but they hit him hard at Minute Maid in June, scoring seven runs and two bombs off of him in six innings.  That is his only recent work against Houston, as his next most recent appearance against them was in 2014.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Bogaerts vs. Morton: 6 AB, .333/.333/.500
Young vs. Morton: 12 AB, .250/.308/.500
Ramirez vs. Morton: 15 AB, .067/.176/.067

Springer vs. Porcello: 7 AB, .429/.429/.714
Beltran vs. Porcello: 27 AB, .370/.379/.519
Reddick vs. Porcello: 10 AB, .300/.533/.600
McCann vs. Porcello: 23 AB, .261/.250/.304
Altuve vs. Porcello: 9 AB, .222/.222/.667

ALDS GAME 2 POST-MORTEM
Astros 8, Red Sox 2

I can think of no other perfect microcosm of this series than John Farrell feeling like he needed to intentionally walk Altuve twice to pitch to the guy who had already hit a two-run homer in the game (Correa).  It worked – once – but certainly shows the unenviable situation the Astros have put the Red Sox in.  For the series the Astros have hit six home runs and every slot in the lineup has at least two hits, everyone in the top half of the lineup has an OPS over 1.000, and the bottom half of the lineup has driven in 1/4 of the runs scored.  In the 6th inning Boston watched the Astros double their score on three consecutive swings of the bat (Marwin scoring on Betts’s dropped ball, Correa’s two-run double, Gattis’s single off the scoreboard).

It must be a very helpless feeling.  I can say that because, as an Astros fans, I am well acquainted with that feeling.

Lastly, let’s talk about Angel Hernandez.

I shouldn’t have to tell you that Hernandez was predictably terrible calling balls and strikes, because you could have instantly known that just by seeing his name in the box score.  Inside and outside pitches off the plate were a total crapshoot.  On Gattis’s walk in the 3rd inning Hernandez was the only person in the goddamn zip code that thought the 3-0 pitch was going to be called a ball: Gattis just stood there and was about to start digging in for the next pitch, the crowd didn’t react for several seconds, and the announcers weren’t too sure.  Of course, the pitch was a ball – four inches off the outside corner – except when it wasn’t a number of times in previous ABs for both teams.

I continue to remain gobsmacked that this consistently awful fuckhead gets paid to do what he does and is rewarded for it by getting paid to do it in playoff games.  It’s almost enough to make one want to take a stance against all unionized labor.  At least nowadays his deleterious impact on the game can be mitigated by replay when he’s umpiring in the field, but there is nothing to protect our national pastime from him when he’s wearing a chest protector.

ALDS GAME 3 – HOU leads 2-0

Sunday, October 8, 1:30pm CDT – Fenway Park
Brad Peacock (13-2, 3.00) vs. Doug Fister (5-9, 4.88)

Peacock makes his postseason debut in what has easily been his best major league season.  He has also easily been the Astros’ most consistent starter in 2017.  Since being called upon to start games, his worst month (August) produced a 4.45 ERA, which is hardly terrible and the team still won two of his five starts.  July and September were his best months, both statistically very similar to each other.  In September, though, he allowed fewer walks and hits in more innings for a very impressive 0.893 WHIP, by far his best monthly WHIP of the season as a starter.

Until the end of the regular season Peacock hadn’t pitched against the Red Sox since 2013.  As far as I’m concerned the best indicator of how this game might go is Peacock’s game at Fenway on September 28.  Both teams still had something to play for (Boston hadn’t clinched the AL East yet, Astros were hunting the AL top seed).  Despite only two strikeouts (nearly a season low) Peacock held the Sox to two runs over five innings; he could have worked more but Hinch let the bullpen take over and the Astros wound up winning 12-2.  He will be well rested for Game 3.

Fister is appearing in his fifth postseason after four straight appearances with the Tigers and Nationals from 2011-2014.  His playoff record is pretty solid: in eight starts (nine total appearances) he is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA.  Then again, he was a better pitcher in 2011-2014 than he is now.  In 2011-2014 he amassed a 16.7 WAR and his season ERA never surpassed 3.67.  From 2015 on he has just been a cumulative 0.2 WAR player with his ERA trending toward the high 4’s.  This season he didn’t pitch until late June, and he stumbled down the stretch with a 5.58 ERA in September.

Houston had a hand in that September ERA, getting three runs off of him last Friday in 5.1 innings and handing him the loss.  Bregman did especially well, going 3×3 against Fister while scaling the Green Monster for the second game in a row.  With Fister being an Astro in 2016 and then in the National League in 2014-2015, you have to go back to 2013 to find any other work of his against the Astros, although it’s a slightly different story with individual hitters (see below).

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Pedroia vs. Peacock: 8 AB, .375/.500/.375
Moreland vs. Peacock: 13 AB, .154/.214/.385
For pretty much everyone else, just go check 9/28’s box score

Altuve vs. Fister: 7 AB, .429/.429/.429
Beltran vs. Fister: 13 AB, .385/.429/.692
Reddick vs. Fister: 17 AB, .294/.294/.353
Maybin vs. Fister: 14 AB, .286/.375/.500
Gattis vs. Fister: 8 AB, .250/.333/.250
Marwin vs. Fister: 7 AB, 0-fer

BULLPEN WATCH

Houston – Hinch has had the luxury of getting almost everyone’s feet wet and only Devenski has pitched back-to-back games.  With Saturday’s off day it stands to reason that the entire bullpen, with the possible exception of Devenski, will be available for Game 3.  McCullers is also available if needed.

Boston – The Red Sox had to use seven pitchers in Game 2, including 38 pitches from David Price over 2.2 innings.  Price threw 40 pitches in 2.2 relief innings on 9/22 and didn’t pitch again until 9/27, so he is probably unavailable for both Fenway games if they are necessary.  Austin Maddox threw 49 pitches in Games 1 and 2 and it was only the second time this season he has been used in back-to-back games.  The first time – with ten fewer pitches – he needed two days rest, so he is probably unavailable for Game 3 at the very least.

ALDS GAME 1 POST-MORTEM
Astros 8, Red Sox 2

Took in the game in section 128.  Lost my voice and had a blast.  Jose Altuve is aight.

The only other postseason baseball game I’ve attended was at Enron Field, Game 2 of the 2001 NLDS.  Dave Mlicki was the tough-luck loser as the Astros fell to the goddamn Braves 1-0.  The stadium that would become Minute Maid Park was still three years away from gaining a reputation for having a raucous atmosphere in October with the roof closed.

Fort Minute Maid sounds fantastic on TV/radio when mic’ed properly, but TV/radio doesn’t do it justice.  The stadium really is loud as shit in October.  My ears were ringing after Bregman and Altuve went back-to-back, and the lingering crowd noise completely drowned out the PA system announcing Correa afterward.  If you have the means to attend a postseason game in Houston you shouldn’t deprive yourself of the experience.

INJURY REPORT

After seeing Eduardo Nunez carried off the field in the 1st inning, it’s no surprise that he is out for the series after aggravating his knee injury.  This is a big blow to the Red Sox lineup as Nunez hit .321/.353/.539 with 8 HR in just 36 games with the Red Sox.  Outfielder Chris Young (.235/.322/.387, 7 HR, 25 RBI) takes his place on Boston’s ALDS roster.

ALDS GAME 2 – HOU leads 1-0

Friday, October 6, 1:05pm CDT – Minute Maid Park
Drew Pomeranz (17-6, 3.32) vs. Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90)

Pomeranz is making his sophomore postseason appearance after throwing 3.2 innings of relief for Boston in last year’s ALDS, allowing two runs and striking out seven.  In his second consecutive season as a full-time starter, he matched his 2016 All-Star season ERA and set career highs in innings and wins, although his WHIP ticked up about two tenths.  Pomeranz had an excellent summer, turning in an ERA of 3 or better in each of June, July, and August.

The Astros didn’t fare well against Pomeranz this year, managing just a .179 average and two runs against him in 12.1 innings.  Dating back to 2014 when he was with the A’s, Pomeranz owns a 2.81 ERA against the Astros in six starts, as well as five relief innings with no earned runs (mostly in 2015).

Keuchel was nails in both of his 2015 postseason starts, punking the Yanks in their house and then shutting down the Royals for seven innings in Game 3 of the ALDS.  We are going to conveniently ignore the short-rest desperation relief appearance in Kansas City in Game 5.  As we know, Keuchel was contending for another Cy Young when he was healthy this season: when he went on the DL in June he was 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA.  After not pitching for two months it took a few weeks to get his mojo back, but by mid-August he was back to eating innings even if he was giving up runs.  He closed the season strong with a 2.87 ERA in September.  He will be pitching on nine days rest.

Keuchel does not have a huge body of work against the Red Sox.  His neck ailment precluded any appearances against the Sox this season, and his one appearance against them last year was very forgettable.  You have to go back to August 2014 to find his next start against Boston, where he lasted seven innings and gave up three runs.  We can be certain of one thing, though: he pitches very well at MMP (2.40 ERA since 2014).

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Correa vs. Pomeranz: 5 AB, .600/.600/.600
Altuve vs. Pomeranz: 17 AB, .412/.474/.471
Maybin vs. Pomeranz: 6 AB, .333/.333/1.000
McCann vs. Pomeranz: 11 AB, .182/.182/.455
Beltran vs. Pomeranz: 11 AB, .183/.182/.273
Gattis vs. Pomeranz: 13 AB, .077/.071/.077

Vazquez vs. Keuchel: 5 AB, .400/.500/.400
Young vs. Keuchel: 23 AB, .304/.333/.478
Pedroia vs. Keuchel: 7 AB, .286/.375/.286
Bogaerts vs. Keuchel: 7 AB, .143/.143/.571
Moreland vs. Keuchel: 13 AB, .077/.143/.154
Davis vs. Keuchel: 17 AB, 0-fer

ASTROS vs. RED SOX
American League Division Series

Well, here we go.  101 wins don’t make a shit now, and let’s not kid ourselves: baseball’s best offense has no small challenge ahead, facing two 17-game winners right out of the gate and one of baseball’s best bullpens waiting to take the ball.  And as far as I’m concerned, the Astros and Red Sox were 3-3 in games that “mattered” this year.  Despite the differences in their win/loss records, these two teams could be very evenly matched.

Inasmuch as regular season records and stats can be indicators of what this ALDS might look like, here are some comparisons.

PITCHING

Team ERA: Houston 4.12 (11th), Boston 3.70 (4th)
Starter ERA: Houston 4.03 (6th), Boston 4.06 (8th)
Bullpen ERA: Houston 4.27 (17th), Boston 3.12 (2nd)
Quality starts: Houston 67 (18th), Boston 88 (2nd)
K/9: Houston 9.91 (2nd), Boston 9.59 (5th)
BAA: Houston .240 (6th), Boston .245 (9th)
OPS against: Houston .720 (9th), Boston .712 (7th)

One could fairly say that the Astros’ stats are skewed due to the mish-mash of unplanned contributions from players who would have otherwise been at AAA this season.  Eight players who started the 2017 season in the Astros farm system combined to pitch 176 innings in ten starts and 115 relief appearances for the big club.  Some of those players (e.g. Hoyt, Martes) probably would have found their way to Houston at some point anyway, but others (e.g. Gustave, Diaz, Jankowski) almost certainly would not have until September callups, if at all.  Sure, every club deals with injuries, but I think many will agree that five full months of Keuchel-McCullers-Morton-Musgrove-Fiers would have resulted in much different stats, to say nothing of McHugh’s absence.

However, the main takeaway from the stat comparisons above should be that the Red Sox’s staff this year was very good, arguably the best in the AL that doesn’t rhyme with “Heaveland”.  Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz were obviously the biggest part of their success, but David Price (when healthy) and Eduardo Rodriguez (his late September shelling by the Astros notwithstanding) were no slouches either.  Boston was one of only five teams to get quality starts in over half of their games (three of the other four are still playing baseball).  As for the bullpen, Craig Kimbrel’s and Joe Kelly’s seasons speak for themselves, combining for a 9-1 record and a 2.09 ERA.  Price’s next earned run in relief will be his first.

At least on paper, the Astros may have a slight advantage in the overall rotation thanks to a glut of quality arms to choose from after the first two games.  The Red Sox arguably own the advantage in the late innings.  Either way, this looks to be a very well pitched series.

OFFENSE

Runs scored: Houston 896 (1st), Boston 785 (10th)
Home runs: Houston 238 (2nd), Boston 168 (27th)
Extra-base hits: Houston 604 (1st), Boston 489 (22nd)
Batting average: Houston .282 (1st), Boston .258 (T-12th)
OBP: Houston .346 (1st), Boston .329 (T-11th)
Strikeouts: Houston 1,087 (1st), Boston 1,224 (8th)
Stolen bases: Houston 98 in 140 tries (70%; 23rd), Boston 106 in 137 tries (77.37%; 5th)
GIDP: Houston 139 (T-24th), Boston 141 (T-26th)

Not many surprises here.  The Astros offense is better – if not much better – than the Red Sox’s good-but-not-necessarily-great lineup in nearly every offensive category.  They get more hits of every kind, they score more runs, and they strike out less.  The Astros have three regulars with a .900+ OPS and four more over .800; the Red Sox have zero and three, respectively.  Houston has seven players with over 70 RBI; Boston has three.

DEFENSE

The Astros may routinely start five middle infielders and two center fielders in this series.  Suffice it to say, they have the capacity for outstanding defense as long as they don’t do any of the dumb shit they are sometimes prone to doing.  I haven’t watched Boston much, but despite a slightly worse fielding percentage than the Astros all of the sabermetric defensive stats like Boston more.  For whatever any of that is worth.

Boston’s regular Benintendi-Bradley-Betts outfield combined for 25 assists.  Of Houston players that will be in the dugout this October (i.e. no Aoki, no Teoscar Hernandez), the Astros came close with 23, but it took the entire seven-headed monster (including Beltran, who turned in zero assists) to get there.

Christian Vasquez and Sandy Leon both ranked in MLB’s top 20 in throwing runners out, combining for 39.  McCann and Gattis together totaled just 12, a potential problem area given Boston’s relative success stealing bases.  Houston has the edge in passed balls, though, with 10 compared to Boston’s 18.

INJURIES

After seeing numerous pitchers and several position players go down with injury at various points in the season, the Astros are knock-on-wood-throw-salt-over-shoulder-while-nursing-a-bucket-of-chicken remarkably healthy.  At the time of this writing, Reddick’s back is better and he is expected to play in the series, so Marisnick stands to be the only regular who will not be on the roster.  McCullers is the only remaining injury-related question mark among the pitchers, but whether he makes the ALDS roster will likely be more related to performance than health.

The Red Sox lost several players to season-ending injuries throughout the season, most notably pitchers Steven Wright and Robbie Ross.  Eduardo Nunez is a question mark due to a knee injury that caused him to miss most of September; he reportedly had a good simulated game on Monday but no decisions have been reached at the time of this writing.  A couple other Sox players (Pedroia, Vazquez) sat out at least one game of the season-ending Astros series to nurse nagging injuries, but they are expected to be ready.  

OVERALL

Everything in this series comes down to the Houston lineup and what it can muster against Sale and Pomeranz, both of whom have pitched the Astros very tough in recent years.  I know there are obviously a number of other factors at play, but in my opinion the Astros’ road to the ALCS goes through Sale and Pomeranz.

If the Astros win this series, it will be because the May/September lineup showed up and vaunted enough in games 1-2 to head to Boston with no worse than a 1-1 tie.  If the Astros lose the series, it will be because Sale and Pomeranz stymied the offense, even if the Astros take the Fenway games and force a game 5.

“Good pitching beats good hitting,” or at least so says the old adage.  We’re about to find out.

ALDS GAME 1

Thursday, October 5, 3:08pm CDT – Minute Maid Park
Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90) vs. Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36)

After seven years of sitting at home in October while on the White Sox, Sale is making his first postseason start of his career.  It goes without saying that Sale had an excellent year – in the entire months of April and July he allowed a total of nine earned runs in ten starts.  If there are any chinks in the armor here, they are that he closed the season looking somewhat human.  The Indians torched him twice in August (13 ER in 8 IP total), and in September he allowed nine home runs.  However, even these aberrations occurred in the midst of dominant outings; in August and September he pitched three scoreless games of seven innings or more.

Sale’s work against non-100-loss Astros teams is surprisingly limited; they never faced him during both the 2014 and 2017 regular seasons.  The small sample size is pretty impressive for him, though: in one 2015 start and two 2016 starts, he is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 2 BB, and 32 K in 24 innings.

Where Sale is the postseason newcomer, Verlander has 16 postseason starts under his belt and is 7-5 with a 3.39 ERA.  His best overall postseason was 2013, which saw him allow just one run over 23 innings as the Tigers lost the ALCS to eventual champion Boston.

Verlander’s brief success thus far as an Astro is well-documented, and he has been extremely effective against the Red Sox.  Since 2015 he is 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA against Boston in six starts.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Altuve vs. Sale: 21 AB, .381/.409/.571
Springer vs. Sale: 12 AB, .250/.250/.333
Reddick vs. Sale: 14 AB, .214/.214/.286
Correa vs. Sale: 10 AB, .200/.200/.200
Maybin vs. Sale: 14 AB, .143/.143/.143
Marwin vs. Sale: 9 AB, .111/.111/.111

Moreland vs. Verlander: 29 AB, .345/.406/.552
Nunez vs. Verlander: 15 AB, .333/.353/.467
Bogaerts vs. Verlander: 15 AB, .267/.267/.400
Benintendi vs. Verlander: 7 AB, .143/.125/.429
Pedroia vs. Verlander: 27 AB, .111/.161/.111
Betts vs. Verlander: 13 AB, 0-fer

MARINERS @ ASTROS
September 15-17, 2017

Magic Numbers

To clinch AL West: 3
To clinch AL top seed: hahahahahahahahaha

What happened in the last series?

Houston (88-58) took two out of three from the Angels in Anaheim.

The Mariners (74-73) won a four-game series in Arlington.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, September 15 – 7:10pm CDT
James Paxton (12-3, 2.78) vs. Charlie Morton (11-7, 3.86)

Paxton: first start since August 10; 3 starts, 2-0, 0.45 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 20 K vs. Astros in 2017

Morton: 1-1, 4.20 ERA in last 3 starts; 3 starts, 0-2, 4.58 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, 15 K vs. Mariners in 2017

Saturday, September 16 – 12:05pm CDT
Erasmo Ramirez (5-5, 4.25) vs. Dallas Keuchel (12-4, 3.03)

Ramirez: 0-1, 2.89 ERA in last 3 starts; 1 start, 3.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 5 K vs. Astros in 2017

Keuchel: 1-2, 5.59 ERA in last 3 starts; 2 starts, 2-0, 1.23 ERA, 0.886 WHIP, 9 K vs. Mariners in 2017

Sunday, September 17 – 1:10pm CDT
Andrew Moore (1-3, 5.36) vs. Justin Verlander (12-8, 3.58)

Moore: making 8th start of season; 2.25 ERA in last 2 starts; 1 start, 3.00 ERA, 0.833 WHIP, 3 K vs. Astros in 2017

Verlander: 3-0, 0.90 ERA in last 3 starts; 3 starts, 1-0, 1.93 ERA, 1.018 WHIP, 26 K vs. Mariners in 2017