ALCS GAME 6 POST-MORTEM
Astros 7, Yankees 1

It’s not just that the Astros won, but the way in which the Astros won that instills any sort of confidence in me for a Game 7.  Houston scored more runs than they have since the early ALDS games, and nearly as many as they did in Games 1-5 of the ALCS.  Altuve drove in three.  McCann had his first hits since the ALDS games at MMP.  This is crucially important given that there are others who still need to get in gear (Springer, Reddick, Gattis, Marwin).

Verlander is still a badass.  I would drink that guy’s bath water.

ALCS GAME 7

Saturday, October 21, 7:08pm CDT – Minute Maid Park
CC Sabathia (1-0, 2.30) vs. Charlie Morton (0-1, 10.13)

Sabathia didn’t have a whole lot of trouble with the Astros in New York despite working around four walks.  Much has been made of his 10-0 record and 1.69 ERA after a Yankee loss.  However, for his career he is 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA in two starts at Minute Maid.  Much of that comes from the 2014 Astros tagging him for six runs on Opening Day.  Last year he pitched into the 7th and gave up two runs.

Morton gave up some tough luck runs early in Game 3.  If he can avoid that and get any sort of offensive support then the Astros have a fighting chance.

ALCS GAME 5 POST-MORTEM
Yankees 5, Astros 0

Pros: Nobody died.

Cons: Everything else.

ALCS GAME 6 – NYY leads 3-2

Friday, October 20, TBD – Minute Maid Park
Luis Severino (1-0, 5.56) vs. Justin Verlander (3-0, 2.04)

We know what Verlander can do.  Can the offense put together enough good at-bats, much less in a row, to force a Game 7?

ALCS GAME 4 POST-MORTEM
Yankees 6, Astros 4

Fuck.

ALCS GAME 5 – Series tied 2-2

Wednesday, October 18, 4:08pm CDT – Yankee Stadium
Dallas Keuchel (2-0, 0.71) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (1-1, 1.38)

Absolutely need no fewer than seven, and preferably eight or nine, innings from Keuchel.  Anything less puts the Astros’ pennant hopes on life support.

Absolutely need to pull heads out of asses and get to Tanaka.

Game 1 refresher:

Keuchel: 7 IP, 4 H (all singles), 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K

Tanaka: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 K

ALCS GAME 3 POST-MORTEM
Yankees 8, Astros 1

If you read the pitcher/batter matchups in the Game 3 preview then last night’s score shouldn’t be a terrible shock.  Coming into last night’s game the Yankee lineup had over a .900 OPS on Morton.  Hell, Frazier slugged .944 against Morton before his homer.  It does suck that the Yankees took their first lead on a squibbler, a bloop, and a reaching, almost one-handed home run on a decent pitch, which kind of set the tone for the evening.  Meanwhile, Astro hitters either hadn’t faced Sabathia much at all or had a significant track record of little success against him.

If there’s a silver lining to be had, it’s that the pitching exploded while the offense crumbled all in the same game.  Hope they got it out of their system and can steal a game before the rotations turn over.

ALCS GAME 4 – HOU leads 2-1

Tuesday, October 17, 4:08pm CDT – Yankee Stadium
Lance McCullers Jr (0-0, 6.00) vs. Sonny Gray (0-1, 8.10)

McCullers gave up two runs in three innings in Game 3 of the ALDS and had two good/great starts against the Yanks this year: the first a six-inning shutout affair in the Bronx in May, the second allowing three runs in 5.1 innings in June.  The Astros have lost eight of the last nine games in which McCullers has pitched.  Will we see Good Lance or Bad Lance today?  Who knows?

Gray turned in a 4-7 record and a 3.72 ERA with the Yankees since being acquired midseason, still a very solid performance despite an increase in WHIP (1.18 to 1.26) and homers (allowed three more in 32 fewer innings) and a decrease in K:BB (94:30 to 59:27).  He was the losing pitcher in Game 1 of the ALDS when the Yanks got blanked 4-0, Gray allowing three runs on three hits and four walks in 3.1 innings.

Gray didn’t do so well against Houston as an Oakland A in June, allowing five runs in as many innings, but he has done decently well against the Astros in the past.  Since 2014 he is 2-3 with a 4.35 ERA in seven starts against Houston.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Gregorius vs. McCullers: 8 AB, .625/.625/.750
Gardner vs. McCullers: 9 AB, .333/.333/.444
Hicks vs. McCullers: 7 AB, .143/.143/.143
Headley vs. McCullers: 7 AB, 0-fer
Ellsbury vs. McCullers: 8 AB, 0-fer

Altuve vs. Gray: 30 AB, .367/.367/.400
Beltran vs. Gray: 11 AB, .364/.417/.545
McCann vs. Gray: 12 AB, .333/.429/.667
Springer vs. Gray: 16 AB, .250/.368/.438
Gattis vs. Gray: 15 AB, .200/.294/.200
Correa vs. Gray: 14 AB, .071/.125/.071

ALCS GAME 2 POST-MORTEM
Astros 2, Yankees 1

Even though the Astros lost the 2004 NLCS, Game 5 was one of those games I was going to sock away forever in my memory.  The pitchers’ duel.  The defense.  The homer.  I still derive a lot of pleasure (NTTAWWT) from watching the homer, even with the hindsight of knowing what the next two games had in store.

Today’s game was one of those games.  Verlander was a monster on the mound, turning in a truly epic performance.  There was some more sparkling defense to save at least one run, perhaps more.  For the second time this postseason, the Astros scratched out the winning run against one of the best closers in the game.  And the Yankees couldn’t do something that the Astros had done more than once against them this year: cut down a crucial run at the plate.

And, as someone who moonlights as an audio engineer, it brings joy to my heart to hear the roar of the crowd cause Fox’s stadium mics to start clipping.  Fort Minute Maid is alive and well.

ALCS GAME 3 – HOU leads 2-0

Monday, October 16, 7:08pm CDT – Yankee Stadium
Charlie Morton (0-0, 4.15) vs. CC Sabathia (0-0, 3.72)

Morton gets the call for his second postseason start after giving up two runs in 4.1 innings in Game 4 of the ALDS.  Boston knocked him around a bit for seven hits on top of two walks.  Morton only faced the Yankees once this season, and was the winning pitcher in the 10-7 Jeter worship service in May; he allowed four runs in 5.2 innings while fanning 10.  That was only his second career appearance against the Yankees and his only start in the Bronx.

Sabathia has made two solid starts this postseason despite his record having nothing to show for it.  He was the starter of the fateful ALDS Game 2 that the Yankees let get away from them; he left the game with one out in the 6th and a man on, who eventually scored on Lindor’s salami.  In Game 5 he dominated for four-plus innings, striking out nine of his first 14 batters before four straight Indians reached base and chased him from the game.

The Astros did not see Sabathia this year, but in 2016 he picked up a win against them while allowing two runs in 6.2 innings.  For his career he is 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA against Houston.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Castro vs. Morton: 30 AB, .400/.400/.733
Frazier vs Morton: 18 AB, .389/.421/.944
Headley vs. Morton: 9 AB, .333/.500/.333
Holliday vs. Morton: 34 AB, .265/.286/.471
Gregorius vs. Morton: 6 AB, .167/.375/.167

Altuve vs. Sabathia: 6 AB, .333/.333/.333
Beltran vs. Sabathia: 35 AB, .229/.341/.333
McCann vs. Sabathia: 10 AB, .200/.250/.400
Reddick vs. Sabathia: 19 AB, .105/.150/.316

ALCS GAME 1 POST-MORTEM
Astros 2, Yankees 1

What happened in Game 1?  Just Keuchel doing Keuchel things, striking out 10 Yankees over seven shutout frames.  He now owns the lowest postseason ERA as a starter in MLB history for pitchers with a minimum of four starts.  Giles notched a five-out save despite giving up a moonshot blast off the RF foul pole in the top of the 9th.  

Oh, and Jake Marisnick Marwin Gonzalez cut down another Yankee at home plate on a throw from left field.  Neat.

On the offensive side, the Astros got just enough done against a very effective Tanaka, manufacturing a couple of runs in the 4th and hanging on for the win.  The Yankee pen definitely asserted themselves, though, with three scoreless innings.

ALCS GAME 2 – HOU leads 1-0

Saturday, October 14, 3:08pm CDT – Minute Maid Park
Luis Severino (1-0, 7.36) vs. Justin Verlander (2-0, 3.12)

Severino will be making his third postseason start after his disastrous Wild Card appearance and a rebound start against the Indians in Game 3 of the ALDS.  Severino was the Yankees’ best starter throughout the season, and he closed the season strong as well, throwing seven quality starts in his last eight games.  He finished 3rd in the AL in ERA at 2.98.

The Astros faced Severino twice in 2017 and can lay claim to two unique milestones in his season.  On May 11 the Astros chased Severino after six hits, three walks, and three earned runs in just 2.1 innings – his shortest regular season outing of the year.  This was the game where Fiers, Harris, and Devenski imploded and the Yankees won 11-6.  Then, on July 2 in Houston, Severino allowed his second-highest earned runs in a game, giving up six runs in 5.1 innings as the Astros won 8-1.

Verlander did not pitch to the Yankees this year, with his most recent outing being a 6+ inning one-run game last June.  For his career he is 6-7 with a 3.87 ERA against New York.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Gurriel vs. Severino: 5 AB, .800/.800/1.000
Correa vs. Severino: 4 AB, .750/.833/1.250
Reddick vs. Severino: 7 AB, .429/.500/.714
Altuve vs. Severino: 6 AB, .167/.167/.167
Springer vs. Severino: 6 AB, .167/.286/.333

Headley vs. Verlander: 15 AB, .400/.400/.800
Frazier vs. Verlander: 17 AB, .294/.294/.647
Gardner vs. Verlander: 26 AB, .269/.345/.385
Ellsbury vs. Verlander: 27 AB, .222/.281/.296
Hicks vs. Verlander: 9 AB, 0-fer