WEEK IN REVIEW – APRIL 16-22

ASTROS (6-1, 16-7 overall)

Monday, April 16 – Mariners 2, Astros 1
Tuesday, April 17 – Astros 4, Mariners 1
Wednesday, April 18 – Astros 7, Mariners 1
Thursday, April 19 – Astros 9, Mariners 2

Friday, April 20 – Astros 10, White Sox 0
Saturday, April 21 – Astros 10, White Sox 1
Sunday, April 22 – Astros 7, White Sox 1

Monday looked like more of the same shit we saw last week, including a great eight-inning Keuchel effort spoiled, but it’s refreshing to see the bats come alive even if it wasn’t against the best pitching baseball has to offer.

The team’s scoring outburst propelled Houston to third in MLB in runs scored (115), behind only Boston and Toronto.  Six players (Correa, Altuve, McCann, Springer, Bregman, Stassi) batted over .300 this week; Correa in particular had a monster week, going 13×24 with a 1.439 OPS, leading the team in hits, walks, and total bases.  Reddick only had four hits but three of them left the yard, including a grand slam on Saturday. Fisher looks lost at the plate, but at least he robbed a home run.

As far as the pitching goes… what more could you ask for?  The rotation turned in seven quality starts in as many games, and leads the majors with a 2.10 ERA, 11.12 K/9 innings, and the best percentage of runners left on base (86.3%).  They are positively filthy and it’s borderline unfair.

Nods approvingly at… well, just about everyone.  When you go 6-1 and outscore your opponents 48-8, a lot of things are going right.

Looks down nose at… Evan Gattis, whose smooth 0.0 wFTG (Weighted Fucks to Give) on the triple play in Seattle has no excuse.  We all thought he just forgot the number of outs, but it turns out that the only worse explanation was also the correct one.  Maybe this principle can be referred to as Gattis’s Razor; if his beard is any indication, he could use one.

ELSEWHERE IN THE AL WEST…

The Angels (14-8) finally came back down to Earth a bit, getting swept by the Red Sox and dropping two of three to a Giants team that entered the weekend with a 7-11 record.  They were outscored 41-10 while going 1-5 on the week.

Seattle (11-9), after dropping a four-game set to the Astros early in the week, won two out of three in Arlington against the Rangers (8-15), who also lost two of three against the Rays.

The A’s (11-11) scraped and clawed their way to .500 by sweeping the White Sox and then punking the Red Sox twice, including Sunday’s no-hitter by Sean Manaea.

ELSEWHERE IN MLB…

White Sox pitcher Danny Farquhar, who passed out in the dugout after his appearance in Friday’s game against the Astros, apparently suffered a brain aneurysm and underwent brain surgeries on Saturday and Sunday.  Holy shit. Prayers for a full recovery.

The Diamondbacks (15-6) are the best team in the National League and have also allowed the NL’s fewest runs (64).  As good as that is, three AL teams (Indians, Astros, Red Sox) have allowed fewer.

Brandon Belt had a 21-pitch AB, breaking Ricky Gutierrez’s record of 20.  I looked up the game to see if Gutierrez ended the AB by grounding into a double play.  He didn’t. I had a sad.

THE WEEK AHEAD – APRIL 23-29

The Astros play two of the top offenses in baseball this week.  Let’s see how the ERA looks afterward.

Angels @ Astros – April 23-25
or, “Ohtani-Mania comes to Houston”

Schedule and Probables

Monday, April 23, 7:10pm CDT
Tyler Skaggs (2-1, 3.98) vs. Gerrit Cole (2-0, 0.96)

Tuesday, April 24, 7:10pm CDT
Shohei Ohtani (2-1, 3.60) vs. Charlie Morton (3-0, 0.72)

Wednesday, April 25, 1:10pm CDT
Nick Tropeano (1-1, 3.75) vs. Justin Verlander (3-0, 1.10)

Look at dem ERAs.  God, that makes me so hot.

Angel pitching got dinged pretty badly last week, and their 4.16 ERA is all the way down at 18th in baseball.  Their rotation bears most of that shame, with a 5.12 ERA that is 24th in MLB. But their rotation also owns a 10-7 record, which tells me that they’ve been living dangerously thanks to their offense.  The Fightin’ Anaheims have baseball’s fifth-best run-scoring offense and fourth-best batting average, and they currently lead the majors with 32 home runs. They are also perfect in ten stolen base attempts.

Skaggs has been largely effective for the Angels this season.  Before the Red Sox bashed him last week, he had only given up three earned runs in his first three starts.  He’s only pitched more than five innings once, though. Ohtani got roughed up for the first time, allowing three runs in two innings before leaving the game with a blister.  Tropeano is making only his third start of the season; he shut out the Royals before also getting the Boston treatment. The Astros have had success against Tropeano (combined .419/.471/.581) but less against Skaggs (just a .266 average, Springer is 0x13).

Houston’s starters for this series match up well (something I expect to say a lot this season): Angels players who have faced Cole, Morton, and Verlander are a combined .173 in 398 ABs.

A’s @ Astros – April 27-29
or, “Still can’t believe these fucks swept the Astros last September”

Schedule and Probables

Friday, April 27, 7:10pm CDT
Sean Manaea (3-2, 1.23) vs. Dallas Keuchel (1-3, 3.10)

Saturday, April 28, 6:10pm CDT
Daniel Mengden (2-2, 3.86) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (3-1, 4.67)

Sunday, April 29, 1:10pm CDT
Trevor Cahill (1-0, 0.00) vs. Gerrit Cole (2-0, 0.96)

The A’s will play three games in Arlington and get Thursday off before heading down to Houston.  The A’s are just as much of an offensive threat as the Angels, and in fact even outpace the Angels (and Astros) in a few categories.  They don’t run the bases much, though, with five steals in only seven tries. The pitching has been pretty average, with a 4.37 staff ERA that slots them just in the bottom third.  If this team can figure out the pitching then they may be a dark horse wild card team.

We’ve already read about Manaea no-hitting the juggernaut Red Sox lineup.  He’s had an excellent start to the season, only once not lasting until the 7th and three times pitching into the 8th or later.  Mengden started off roughly against the Angels and Rangers, but has pitched back-to-back quality starts and has issued only three walks all year.  Cahill was a last-minute signing in March after Jharel Cotton got shelved for Tommy John surgery, and spent the first couple of weeks tuning up in AAA.  His only start of the year was a seven-inning, five-hit shutout of the White Sox. He’s due to pitch against the Rangers before this series.

The Astros have hit well against Cahill (in limited work) and Mengden historically, but Manaea has done well against Houston.  McCullers and Cole both have small sample sizes against the A’s hitters, while Keuchel has allowed a decent .257 average against Oakland.

WEEK IN REVIEW – APRIL 9-15

ASTROS (2-4, 10-6 overall)

Monday, April 9 – Astros 2, Twins 0
Tuesday, April 10 – Twins 4, Astros 1
Wednesday, April 11 – Twins 9, Astros 8

Friday, April 13 – Astros 3, Rangers 2
Saturday, April 14 – Rangers 6, Astros 5 (10 innings)
Sunday, April 15 – Rangers 3, Astros 1 (10 innings)

The Astros got four great (or better) starting pitching performances this week – Justin Verlander times two, Gerrit Cole, and Charlie Morton combined for a 1.61 ERA in 28 innings – but were only able to convert two wins and one winning decision for Verlander.  Good pitching efforts getting wasted is going to happen, but it sucks that it happened all in one week behind some really strong outings.

If there’s one purpose this week served, it’s to keep expectations in check.  This lineup will score runs when it gets in gear, and it took a little while for things to click last year, but several guys are really struggling right now.  There is perhaps none so painful as Gattis, who has an average below the Mendoza line and an OPS less than .600 – absolute murder in the DH slot.

Houston still owns MLB’s second-best ERA at 2.74, one of only three sub-3 team ERAs left.  But the Astros have seen themselves fall to the middle of the pack in many offensive categories.  Hopefully the upcoming week against some high-ERA teams will give them a shot in the arm.

Nods approvingly at…  the punchouts.  Astros starters notched 58 strikeouts in six starts this week.  (Honorable mention: the comeback in Minneapolis. Even if it was a losing effort this time, coming all the way back from an 8-1 deficit is noteworthy.)

Looks down nose at… the bullpen, which took home three losses in the 9th inning or later this week.  (Dishonorable mention: letting all 623 wobbly, gooey pounds of Bartolo Fucking Colon take a perfect game against you into the 8th inning.  That’s what happens when you go into your ABs with a shitty approach and find yourself down in the count early.)

ELSEWHERE IN THE AL WEST…

The Angels (13-3) ran the table against the Rangers (6-11) and Royals, falling one win shy of a 7-0 week only because of a freeze-out in Kansas City on Sunday.  They’re also the MLB leaders in runs scored (103). Although the Angels have a three game division lead, they’ve played 13 of their 16 games against the Rangers, A’s, and Royals (combined record of 14-31).  They have series against the Red Sox, Astros, and Yankees before the month is out, so we’ll see how they fare against better competition. Also, they have already used nine starters this season and Matt Shoemaker will be on the shelf until at least May.

Not unlike the Angels, the Mariners benefited from playing the Royals and A’s, turning in a 4-1 week.  Very unlike the Angels, they have only used four starters so far, although three of them – including Felix Hernandez – have ERAs of 5.74 or higher.

I’ve already shat on the A’s a couple of times in this space, but it’s worth noting that they split a two-game series against the Dodgers, including a 16-6 win.

ELSEWHERE IN MLB…

Weather wreaked havoc on the schedule as ten weekend series games (and six on Sunday alone) throughout the midwest, north, and northeast were postponed.

The Red Sox (13-2) and Mets (12-2) both finally lost a game, but are still the best teams in their respective leagues.  The Mets have the least runs allowed in the NL and the second-least in MLB, second to (surprisingly) the Twins.

The Diamondbacks (11-4) are looking pretty damn salty too, with MLB’s third-best staff ERA (2.90) and 6th-best run scoring offense.

The Pirates (11-4) lead the NL Central.  Former Astro Colin Moran is hitting .310/.383/.429.

Yu Darvish faced some early jams against the Braves in his first Wrigley start, then later came unglued in the 5th inning after a balk call.  Former Astro Preston Tucker finished him off with a three-run homer.

THE WEEK AHEAD – APRIL 16-22

Astros @ Mariners – April 16-19
or, “Admit it, you really missed the west coast start times”

The Mariners just got Nelson Cruz back from the DL after he Moises Alou-ed his ankle on the dugout steps after a home run during opening weekend.  I couldn’t find video of it, but I did find video of the celebratory butt slap immediately following the homer and immediately preceding the dugout steps.  Robbie Cano flew a little too close to the sun, if you know what I mean:

Outside of the cheek, dude.

Schedule and Probables

Monday, April 16, 9:10pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (0-2, 4.20) vs. James Paxton (0-1, 5.74)

Tuesday, April 17, 9:10pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (1-1, 7.71) vs. Ariel Miranda (2017: 8-7, 5.12)

Wednesday, April 18, 9:10pm CDT
Gerrit Cole (1-0, 1.29) vs. Mike Leake (2-0, 3.50)

Thursday, April 19, 2:40pm CDT
Charlie Morton (2-0, 1.00) vs. Marco Gonzales (1-1, 8.25)

Seattle’s 5.14 ERA is dead last in the AL, and they are kept out of last in MLB only by an awful Cincy staff that is nearly a full run worse.  It ticks upward quite a bit for just the starters, whose 5-3 record belies their 5.79 ERA, less than 2:1 K:BB ratio, and 1.467 combined WHIP.

Paxton had decent outings against the Royals (quality start including 10 Ks in 6 IP) and Twins after blowing up against the Indians in his first start of the season.  Leake is the owner of the other two quality starts, and the team has won every game in which he has pitched despite his having more walks (9) than strikeouts (8). Gonzales started the season well enough against the Giants, but his more recent starts against the Royals and A’s have seen him bounced in the 3rd and 4th innings, respectively.  Miranda started the year in the minors, where he logged a combined 4.00 ERA in two starts split between AAA and A-Advanced, and will be making his first big league start of the year.

Of the M’s pitchers we’ll see in this series, only Paxton and Miranda faced the Astros in 2017.  Paxton was Seattle’s best starter in that regard, carrying a 1.69 ERA in four starts. Miranda was…. not as good, with an 0-2 record and 4.70 ERA.  Conversely, Keuchel, McCullers, and Morton all posted a sub-4 ERA against the Mariners in 2017, with Keuchel (1.31) leading the pack. Cole, being in the NL, didn’t face Seattle last season, but M’s hitters have a combined career .636 OPS against him, largely due to the fact that in 63 plate appearances they have only three extra-base hits and no homers.

Astros @ White Sox – April 20-22
or, “Do they actually play baseball in Chicago?”

The Sox had damn near all of their four-game series in Minneapolis snowed out this past weekend.  The city of Chicago didn’t fare much better while they were away, and they’re still expected to get rain and snow while the Pale Hose are in Oakland during the early part of this week.  But the weather gets better just in time for this series, with positively balmy high temps in the 40s by Friday. Thanks, Obama.

Schedule and Probables

Friday, April 20, 7:10pm CDT
Justin Verlander (2-0, 1.35) vs. James Shields (1-0, 4.15)

Saturday, April 21, 6:10pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (0-2, 4.20) vs. Lucas Giolito (0-2, 5.50)

Sunday, April 22, 1:10pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (1-1, 7.71) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (0-1, 0.69)

The White Sox (4-8) are your third place team in the AL Central.  Nice division, brah. If you’re looking for something that they’re good at, it’s not pitching; their 4.92 ERA is 4th worst in MLB.  Shields is their second-best starter in ERA, and 3-5 have ERAs of 5.50 (Giolito), 5.59 (Carson Fulmer), and 8.68 (Miguel Gonzalez). Of course, these are all still small sample sizes, but it stands in stark contrast to the Astros, who have three starters with an ERA of 1.35 or less.  Things look a little better on the offensive side; although the White Sox have only scored 48 runs (7th worst in MLB), they have a team OPS of .743 which sits just outside the top ten.

Shields was Chicago’s Opening Day starter and has had a decent start to the season.  Despite just one strikeout in his first two starts, he put up six Ks against the Rays in his most recent start.  He would’ve been slated to pitch against the A’s on Monday, but with Sunday’s postponement it looks like they’re going to skip his slot in the rotation and throw Lopez (Sunday’s scheduled starter) on Monday.  If that holds up, Shields will face the Astros on eight days rest. Lopez has been their best starter so far: in two starts he has allowed only four hits and one earned run. In three starts, Giolito has been good for about six innings and about 3-5 runs each time.  Walks are a big problem right now for him, as his 8:12 K:BB ratio is tilted to the wrong side of the scale.

Shields and Giolito both took losses against the Astros in 2017 despite a combined 3.65 ERA against the team.  Keuchel’s worst start of 2017 came in August against the ChiSox, allowing eight earned runs in just four innings.  He rebounded against them in September, but still took two losses for the season. Verlander, still with the Tigers, did pretty well against Chicago, with a 3.52 ERA in three starts.  McCullers has not pitched against the White Sox since 2015.

WEEK IN REVIEW – APRIL 2-8

ASTROS (5-1, 8-2 overall)

Monday, April 2 – Astros 6, Orioles 1
Tuesday, April 3 – Astros 10, Orioles 6
Wednesday, April 4 – Astros 3, Orioles 2

Friday, April 6 – Padres 4, Astros 1
Saturday, April 7 – Astros 1, Padres 0
Sunday, April 8 – Astros 4, Padres 1

The Astros kept the offense rolling after the opening series against the Rangers, but it went into a funk after Reddick’s grand slam on Tuesday.  The team was just 2×18 with RISP Wednesday through Saturday, and that includes Saturday’s walkoff popup that was gifted as a hit and not an error.

The pitching staff as a whole put together a pretty good week, though.  Starters combined for a 2-1 record and 1.36 ERA on 43 strikeouts, and the bullpen put up a lot of zeroes on the scoreboard.  Overall, the Astros’ 2.00 team ERA leads MLB staffs, their 106 strikeouts trails only the Yankees, and their 1.12 WHIP is tied for third-best.

Nods approvingly at… the #4 and #5 slots in the rotation.  In three starts Cole and Morton combined for 19 innings, 24 strikeouts, a WHIP under 1, and no earned runs.  They won’t continue at this pace, but it’s damn fun to watch. (Honorable mention: Eric Hosmer.)

Looks down nose at… sloppy defense.  Six errors in six games is pretty shitty, and five of those errors led to unearned runs.  (Dishonorable mention: the offense.)

ELSEWHERE IN THE AL WEST…

The Angels (6-2) went 4-2, picking up series wins against the Indians and A’s.  Shohei Ohtani took a perfect game into the 7th inning on Sunday and is batting .389/.421/.889 in four games.  Holy shit.  An adjustment is coming, no doubt, but for now the returns are impressive.

The Mariners (4-3) went 3-2 against the Giants and Twins.  King Felix got absolutely torched in San Fran.

The A’s (4-7) and Rangers (4-7) both went 3-4 on the week, splitting a four-game series with each other and then each dropping two out of three to their weekend opponents.

ELSEWHERE IN BASEBALL…

The Orioles, freshly swept by the Astros, punked the Yankees twice in extra innings in the Bronx on the way to a 3-1 series win.

The Red Sox (8-1) have won eight straight and own baseball’s best record.

The AL Central is the ugliest division so far, with only two games separating first place and last place.

Through nine games the Dodgers own a +2 run differential and are 3-6.  They’ve been shut out three times, and twice this week the Diamondbacks (15 innings) and Giants (14 innings) walked off against them in protracted extra inning contests.

The Nationals (4-5) dipped below .500 for the first time since 2015.  The Astros now own the best current streak in that regard.

Speaking of the NL East, it may be a three-team race with the Mets (7-1) and Braves (6-3) all off to strong starts.  The Braves have scored more runs (62) than anyone out of the gate, while the Mets have allowed the fewest (22).

THE WEEK AHEAD – APRIL 9-15

Astros @ Twins – April 9-11
or, “Exhibit A for why all northern baseball stadiums should have roofs”

It’s going to be cold as shit for this series, with first pitch temps of 36, 41, and 46 degrees.  It could be worse: Minneapolis is supposed to have up to three inches of snow while the White Sox are in town this weekend.

Schedule and Probables

Monday, April 9, 7:10pm CDT
Justin Verlander (1-0, 2.31) vs. Lance Lynn (0-1, 11.25)

Tuesday, April 10, 7:10pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (0-1, 3.27) vs. Jake Odorizzi (0-0, 2.61)

Wednesday, April 11, 12:10pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (1-1, 3.48) vs. Kyle Gibson (1-0, 0.87)

Look at the Astros pitchers above.  Now look at this list of the Astros pitchers that started in Minneapolis in 2017:

Brad Peacock
Mike Fiers
David Paulino

Also, I think we can safely say that we won’t be seeing Jordan Jankowski for two innings of relief this time around.  

Of course, many will remember last year’s trip to Target Field for the offense: 40 runs scored (team record for series of any length), the Memorial Day Massacre (11-run 8th inning), the first comeback of 6+ runs in the 8th inning or later in team history.  The Astros have recently scored runs in bunches in Minneapolis, but the Twins (4-3) pitching stands to be a little better this time around; Minnesota’s 3.57 team ERA so far is 3rd in the AL (behind Boston and Houston) and 9th in MLB. Their offense is solidly middle of the road.

Lance Lynn made a pretty good comeback in 2017 from Tommy John surgery the previous year, posting a 3.43 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in St. Louis.  The sabermetricians think he’s fools gold, though. Jake Odorizzi started his season with a two-hit shutout appearance against the Orioles, then gave up three runs in 4.1 innings to the upstart Pirates.  Gibson no-hit the O’s for six innings (despite five walks), then turned in a relatively short but effective outing against the M’s. The Astros have had success against Odorizzi; Gibson, not so much (team OPS below .600).

Rangers @ Astros – April 13-15
or, “Don’t Fister in the (Bartolo) Colon”

Season series: 3-1 Astros
Season run differential: Astros +11

I don’t get the fascination with Colon.  His combination of being old, being fat, and hitting a home run that one time while being old and fat has somehow made him an endearing figure, which in the #metoo era is somewhat surprising given the two-timing scumbag he is in his personal life.  This, of course, makes him absolutely perfect for the Texas Rangers, and vice versa.

Schedule and Probables

Friday, April 13, 7:10pm CDT (get ready for “Friday the 13th” hot air from sportscasters if anything remotely weird happens)
Mike Minor (1-1, 2.53) vs. Gerrit Cole (1-0, 0.64)

Saturday, April 14, 3:05pm CDT
Cole Hamels (1-2, 5.06) vs. Charlie Morton (2-0, 0.00)

Sunday, April 15, 1:10pm CDT
Doug Fister (1-1, 3.12) vs. Justin Verlander (1-0, 2.31)

Astros fans are getting the national broadcast treatment a little early this season, as Saturday’s game will be on FS1 and Sunday’s game on ESPN.

All three of the Rangers pitchers turned in pretty decent outings against the Astros, with Hamels’ being the worst of the three.  Minor pitched well against the Jays, allowing one run on two hits over six innings. Hamels has allowed six earned runs in his last 10.1 innings against the A’s and Blue Jays.  Fister didn’t make it out of the 4th inning in Oakland.

WEEK IN REVIEW – MARCH 29 – APRIL 1

ASTROS (3-1)

Thursday, March 29 – Astros 4, Rangers 1
Friday, March 30 – Rangers 5, Astros 1
Saturday, March 31 – Astros 9, Rangers 3
Sunday, April 1 – Astros 8, Rangers 2

The confluence of a less-than-great outing by Dallas Keuchel (despite technically qualifying for a quality start) and the Astros’ inability to solve Doug Fister resulted in the only loss on an otherwise very promising opening weekend.  The Astros rode some truly excellent starting pitching and some vaunty offense to a 3-1 series victory over the Rangers.

If I had to pick a favorite pitching outing, it might be Gerrit Cole’s.  An early solo homer and a couple of walks aside, Cole was dominant for seven innings, allowing only two hits and punching out eleven (most by a MLB pitcher so far, at the time of this writing).  That’s not to diminish other efforts, though: McCullers racked up 10 K’s in 5.1 innings and Verlander tossed six scoreless innings.

The bullpen performed admirably, comfortably holding the lead in all three of the games in which they had one to protect.

On the offensive side of things, it took a couple of games for the bats to get in gear but they mashed early and often on Saturday and Sunday.  Altuve and Correa are hitting a combined .500 (16×32) with seven RBI and nine runs scored. Stassi and McCann are representing the catcher’s spot well out of the gate.  And this is despite at least four everyday players (Marwin, Springer, Reddick, Bregman) hitting at or below the Mendoza line.

Barring any last-minute setbacks, the Astros get Yuli Gurriel back on Tuesday.  JD Davis figures to be the one sent packing for Fresno unless something happens in Monday’s game that tips the scales between him and Derek Fisher.

Nods approvingly at… the middle infield, and not just because of their proficiency at the plate, either.  Correa and Altuve turned some ridiculous double plays in this series. (Honorable mention: Astros fan turnout in Arlington; Globe Life Park falling short of a sellout on Opening Day; Rougned Odor’s throw to “first” on Friday.)

Looks down nose at… the GIDPs, which are piling up already.  Three of them in the 5-1 loss alone. (Dishonorable mention: Marwin, not for arguing with a bad umpire about bad umpiring, but for whatever this is.)

ELSEWHERE IN THE AL WEST…

The Angels started the season in Oakland and took three out of four from the A’s.  Shohei Ohtani picked up a win in a quality start and went 1×5 from the plate.

The Mariners hosted the Indians and won two games behind strong starts by King Felix and Mike Leake.  All three of the games in the series were decided by one run. Jeff Bannister interrupted his conversation with an umpire to take credit.

ELSEWHERE IN BASEBALL…

The Nats, Pirates, Brewers, and White Sox are the only remaining undefeated teams.

The Dodgers pitching staff allowed two runs – total – to the Giants in four games.  They split the series. Brutal.

Giancarlo Stanton has as many home runs (2) as Jake Marisnick.  Both have two more home runs than Aaron Judge, who has as many home runs as I do.

WEEK AT A GLANCE – APRIL 2-8

ORIOLES @ ASTROS – APRIL 2-4

or, “Minute Maid Park gets an orange enema”

Schedule and probables

Monday, April 2, 6pm CDT
Chris Tillman (2017: 1-7, 7.84) vs. Charlie Morton (2017: 14-7, 3.62)

Tuesday, April 3, 7:10pm CDT
Mike Wright (2017: 0-0, 5.76) vs. Justin Verlander (1-0, 0.00)

Wednesday, April 4, 1:10pm CDT
Dylan Bundy (0-0, 0.00) vs. Dallas Keuchel (0-1, 4.50)

A healthy large contingent of OWA faithful will be in the View Deck for Monday’s home opener.  If AT&T SportsNet and/or ESPN are foolish enough to fix their cameras on us, we apologize in advance if our collective attractiveness leaves you with feelings of inadequacy.

The Orioles (1-2) dropped a three-game set to the Twins and only scored five runs all weekend.  After winning on Opening Day, the O-birds were:

• No-hit through seven innings on Saturday
• Three-hit by Jose Berrios in a complete game shutout on Sunday

Bundy has had the best results in Baltimore’s rotation so far, tossing seven shutout innings on Opening Day.  He was 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA last year and got banged up pretty good by the Astros in Baltimore, allowing seven runs in 5.1 innings   The 2017 Astros also faced Tillman, off of whom they hit two homers last July. Neither pitcher factored into a decision. Wright has not started a game since 2016 and only made 13 relief appearances in 2017.

On the Astros side of the ball, Morton didn’t pitch against the Orioles in 2017 and has limited experience against their lineup.  What experience is there isn’t good, but it’s largely due to Colby Rasmus being 7×14 with a 1.248 OPS lifetime against Morton. As a Tiger, Verlander turned in a seven-inning, 10 K game against the O-birds and notched a win along the way.  Keuchel also picked up a win against the 2017 Orioles, allowing one run over six.

Injuries

DH Mark Trumbo will miss at least the entire week recovering from a quad injury.  

PADRES @ ASTROS – APRIL 6-8

or, “Maybe they’ll actually score some runs this year”

Schedule and probables

Friday, April 6, 7:10pm CDT
Luis Perdomo (0-1, 11.25) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (1-0, 3.38)

Saturday, April 7, 6:10pm CDT
Bryan Mitchell (2017: 1-1, 5.79) vs. Gerrit Cole (1-0, 1.29)

Sunday, April 8, 1:10pm CDT
Tyson Ross (2017: 3-3, 7.71) vs. Charlie Morton (2017: card-carrying Game 7 badass)

The winless Padres will host the Rockies for four games before traveling to Houston.  Baseball’s worst run-scoring offense (-212 run differential!) in 2017 ostensibly improved with the additions of Eric Hosmer and Chase Headley, but it hasn’t reflected in the win column yet.  They suffered a sweep at the hands of the Brewers, including a 2-1 12-inning loss on Opening Day.  Starters not named Clayton Richard didn’t fare well, and that includes Luis Perdomo, who is slated for Friday’s series opener.  Perdomo struck out seven in only four innings, but that was tainted by four walks, seven hits, and five runs. Mitchell made one start and 19 relief appearances with the Yankees last year; one of those relief outings was a three-inning save against the Astros.  Ross was an excellent starter as recently as 2015, but his shoulder injury on Opening Day in 2016 changed the trajectory of his career. He spent a largely miserable 2017 with the Rangers (although he did pick up a win against the Astros) and came to San Diego on a minor league contract.

McCullers has no meaningful experience against the Padres hitters.  Interestingly, neither does Morton despite being a long career in the NL.  Cole does, though, and in 64 combined ABs Padres hitters are .234/.319/.391 against him.

Injuries

The Padres have six players split between the 10-day and 60-day DLs.  You probably haven’t heard of many of them.

Holy crap, the regular season starts today.

Going to try something new this season.  Instead of doing a preview/review for every series, I’m going to zoom out a bit and cover a week at a time.  While that may introduce some errors as pitching matchups can change, I’m hoping that I’ll have some time for a little deeper dive on analysis and commentary.  Because I know y’all are dying for that.

A FINAL-BUT-NOT-REALLY-FINAL LOOK BACK AT 2017

It’s been nearly five months since the Astros won the World Series and I realize that I still haven’t really come to terms with it.  Just seeing that string of italicized words in the previous sentence, without need of further context or qualification, is in several ways gobsmackingly foreign to me.

Of course, I watched the damn thing happen on live TV (and numerous times afterward, as recently as a couple days ago), I watched the parade on TV, I have watched every interview and read every article about it, I own clothing and other memorabilia that says it happened, and I have a picture of me standing close enough to breathe on the fucking trophy in the Texas Capitol.  Still, I find that I suffer from some cognitive dissonance about the whole thing.

Maybe part of it is because the part of me that thought it would never happen was larger than I thought.  One comparison I can make is that my grandmother lived to be almost 98 and, irrational though it may be, I subconsciously assumed that she would live forever.  When she did pass away while I was in college there was a bizarre “is this real life?” feeling that didn’t pass for several months. So even though the Astros demonstrated the ability for late-inning comebacks in the 2017 regular season, even though they staved off a Game 5 with Boston, even though they got off the mat against the Yankees, in hindsight part of me was still expecting them to fail as they had in every previous postseason.  (At the time, though, after the ALCS I never wrote them off.)

Maybe part of it is because I was so nervous throughout the entire postseason that I didn’t enjoy it as much as I should have.  I did enjoy it (if you know what I mean), but maybe it was only relative to the stress and fear of failure.

One thing is for sure, though: 2017 was a DNA-changing season for the Astros as an organization and for me as a fan.

A BRIEF LOOK AHEAD TO 2018

There’s not much to say that hasn’t already been said.  On paper you’d have a hard time building a better team to make a run at defending a title.  The Angels figure to be the Astros’ main competition within the division, and the Indians, Yankees, and Red Sox all pose serious threats to the pennant.

All I will say is that if there’s one thing I’d really love to see in 2018, it’s better consistency (and fewer injuries) from the rotation.

ASTROS @ RANGERS – March 29 – April 1, 2018

Schedule and pitching probables

Thursday, March 29, 2:35pm CDT
Justin Verlander (2017: 15-8, 3.36) vs. Cole Hamels (2017: 11-6, 4.20)

Friday, March 30, 7:05pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (2017: 14-5, 2.90) vs. Doug Fister (2017: 5-9, 4.88)

Saturday, March 31, 3:05pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (2017: 7-4, 4.25) vs. Matt Moore (2017: 6-15, 5.52)

Sunday, April 1, 2:05pm CDT
Gerrit Cole (2017: 12-12, 4.26) vs. Mike Minor (2017: 6-6, 2.55)

Is the Rangers’ offer of an Astros home series in Arlington still good?  If so, I’ve changed my mind. Let’s take them up on it for this series. Hang the banner, distribute the World Series rings, do all that jazz in their house.

Fun fact: to the extent that spring training records mean anything, there was not a worse spring training team than the Rangers, who turned in a paltry 8-22 Cactus League record and tied for the third-most runs allowed out of all MLB teams.

Spring training ERAs for the Astros pitchers listed above, respectively: 1.64, 2.35, 1.29, 2.14

Spring training ERAs for the Rangers pitchers listed above, respectively: 4.15, 5.84, 9.00, 6.17

Injuries

Astros – Yuli Gurriel was not placed on the DL to begin the season and will be eligible to return on Tuesday following his suspension.  Those who are on the DL (Hoyt, Rodgers, Gustave) probably weren’t going to be on the opening day roster anyway.

Rangers – Martin Perez is recovering from an elbow injury sustained on his ranch and is slated to pitch next weekend.  Tim Lincecum won’t be ready to go until May after not pitching at all last season. Tony Barnette also starts the year on the DL.

WORLD SERIES GAME 6 POST-MORTEM
Dodgers 3, Astros 1

With a bunch of missed opportunities on offense – second and third with no outs in the 5th, 0x6 with RISP, 8 LOB – the Astros needed a truly heroic outing from Justin Verlander, and they got it… for five innings.  That he lost a 1-0 lead in the 6th is hardly his fault.

Nobody said this would be easy.

WORLD SERIES GAME 7

Wednesday, November 1, 7:20pm CDT – Dodger Stadium
Lance McCullers Jr. (1-0, 2.95) vs. Yu Darvish (2-1, 4.15)

The script is already written.  The Dodgers have forced a Game 7 and will now cakewalk their way to a title at home.  The Astros don’t stand a chance.

Fuck.  That.

If the Astros can muster anything close to the kind of success they had against Darvish in Game 3, and if McCullers comes up huge like he has all postseason, they have a fighting chance.  And Game 7 promises to be a “kitchen sink” type game for both teams if the score is close late.

May the best team win, but seriously, fuck the Dodgers.

Game 3 lines:

McCullers: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 3 K

Darvish: 1.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 0 K

—

One way or another, this will be OWA’s final preview of the season.  One way or another, about 32 hours from the time of this writing I will go back to being a productive member of the workforce.  I can resume being a decent spouse.  I will rediscover the concept of halfway-adequate parenting.  And, as The Void consumes us, I will have to start exercising again without postseason baseball to keep my heart rate up.

While I look forward to these things, I’m going to miss the shitload of fun it’s been watching and writing about what is already unquestionably the best season in Astros history.  Thanks for hanging around and humoring my sometimes-insightful, infrequently-funny musings on starting pitching matchups and all the other bullshit that goes into your garden variety preview.

See you in 2018.