WORLD SERIES GAME 5 POST-MORTEM
Astros 13, Dodgers 12 (10 innings)

Good evening.  Or morning, or whatever the hell time of day it is right now.  Chances are, if you’re reading this then one of two things is true:

1. You’re about to scour the Internet for every possible Game 5 article you can find.
2. You’ve already scoured the Internet for every possible Game 5 article you can find.

In either case, I won’t waste your time with unoriginal analysis.  I’ll just leave you with the Fangraphs win probability graph of one for the ages.

WORLD SERIES GAME 6 – HOU leads 3-2

Tuesday, October 31, 7:20pm CDT – Dodger Stadium
Justin Verlander (4-0, 2.05) vs. Rich Hill (0-0, 2.77)

Verlander on the mound with a chance to end it.  In two career postseason starts in a clinching situation, he is 2-0 with 17 scoreless innings.  Yes please.

Game 2 lines:

Verlander: 6 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 5 K

Hill: 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 K

WORLD SERIES GAME 4 POST-MORTEM
Dodgers 6, Astros 2

Whether it’s the World Series or a regular season game in April, one hit through eight innings and two hits through nine innings sure sounds like a loss.  But damn it, this was a winnable game.  The Astros had a lot of hard contact turn into outs but led 1-0 after six with Morton on cruise control.  And then the bullpenanigans started.

I really like Hinch as a manager.  I think he has mostly managed circles around Roberts in this series, and whichever moves Roberts has made that worked out have largely been due to some combination of superior personnel and luck.  But with Morton/McCullers in the ALCS and McCullers/Peacock in Game 3, this game was a prime opportunity to go long with McHugh in relief.  Why has Hinch been so reluctant to use McHugh in the postseason?  Did McHugh do something behind the scenes to deserve this?  Dude was left off the ALDS roster for fucking Tyler White, then pitches four no-hit innings in garbage time in the ALCS, and now is nowhere to be found.  It’s the only thing I haven’t liked about Hinch’s managing this postseason.

Even still, Giles… damn.  He has taken two losses and a blown save this postseason.  If I were managing (and this postseason has showed me that I would probably be terrible at it), Giles has put on his spikes for the last time this season.

WORLD SERIES GAME 5 – Series tied 2-2

Sunday, October 29, 7:20pm CDT – Minute Maid Park
Clayton Kershaw (3-0, 2.96) vs. Dallas Keuchel (2-2, 3.00)

I know “must win” is an overused cliche when applied to non-elimination games, but the Astros really need to win this game.  Stealing one game in LA instead of two is a much more attractive proposition.  Keuchel has been excellent at home and the climate will be more favorable, so there is reason for hope.

Game 1 lines:

Kershaw: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 11 K

Keuchel: 6.2 IP , 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 K

WORLD SERIES GAME 3 POST-MORTEM
Astros 5, Dodgers 3

If you were expecting another tooth-and-nail outing against Yu Darvish, you didn’t get it.  The Astros hammered Darvish like they never had before, jumping to an early lead and forcing Roberts to burn through five of his relievers starting in the 2nd.

McCullers looked like he was coming unraveled in the third inning, until he got a whale of a double-play ball to bail him out.  It helps when your first baseman is not actually a first baseman.  Then in comes Peacock to shut in the 6th and, despite allowing McCullers’s runners to score (including on some bad luck), proceeded to shut down the Dodgers in what turned into an all-time great relief performance in World Series history.

And, despite the disappointment of watching Springer’s fly ball to center falling just a few feet short of a grand slam, this is actually a good thing.  As much devastation as the city of Houston has gone through the last few months, it didn’t need an earthquake on its hands.

WORLD SERIES GAME 4 – HOU leads 2-1

Saturday, October 28, 7:20pm CDT – Minute Maid Park
Alex Wood (0-1, 5.79) vs. Charlie Morton (1-1, 6.23)

Wood turned in an excellent 2017 season, setting career marks in ERA (2.72) and wins (he went 16-3 on the year).  He was lights out out of the gate and owned a 1.56 ERA right after the All-Star break.  He had two brief stints on the DL, one from late May to early June and another in late August, for shoulder issues.  One byproduct of the Dodgers’ postseason success has been that Wood has only made one appearance, when he took the Dodgers’ only loss in Game 4 of the NLCS.  He allowed three runs – all solo homers – in 4.2 innings while punching out seven.

Wood only has one career appearance against the Astros, which came in 2014 when he was with the Braves.  He threw a three-hit shutout over seven innings at Minute Maid Park, but Springer and Altuve are the only current Houston hitters that saw him that day.

You have to figure that Hinch is looking for another five or so solid innings from Morton, who is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA lifetime in two starts against the Dodgers.  If they get anything close to what they got from him in Game 7 of the ALCS, I have to figure McHugh will be waiting to take the ball most or all of the rest of the way.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Ethier vs. Morton: 5 AB, .600/.667/1.200
Utley vs. Morton: 10 AB, .500/.545/1.000
Grandal vs. Morton: 5 AB, .400/.400/.400

Only Altuve, Springer, and Reddick have ever faced Wood.  They are a combined 1×10, Springer owning the lone hit.

WORLD SERIES GAME 2 POST-MORTEM
Astros 7, Dodgers 6 (11 innings)

Through seven innings the Astros simply looked snakebit again.

Until they didn’t.

And then, a little while later, it looked like the type of game the Astros – not specifically the 2017 Astros, mind you, but The Houston Astros Baseball Club – would lose.

Until it wasn’t.  As both teams drove the ball with authority in the late innings – especially in extras, in which five of the World Series’ 22 all-time extra-inning home runs were hit – Houston did it just a little better and outlasted the Dodgers for their first ever win of a World Series game.

It was especially refreshing to see Springer break out of his funk, obviously highlighted by his 11th inning two-run homer that ended up being the game-winner.  It’s also good to see the guys get some good hacks in on the Dodger bullpen.

For funsies, go check out Fangraphs’s win probability chart for this game.

Also, totally called this one.  Sort of.

WORLD SERIES GAME 3 – Series tied 1-1

Friday, October 27, 7:09pm CDT – Minute Maid Park
Yu Darvish (2-0, 1.59) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (0-0, 2.08)

Darvish ended his season as pretty much the same pitcher after being dealt to LA.  Before his last start as a stRanger (in which he gave up 10 runs in just 3.2 innings) he had a 3.44 ERA in the AL, and closed the regular season with a 3.44 ERA in the NL and gave up home runs at roughly the same clip, although his K:BB ratio improved a bit after going west.  Darvish has two one-run games (each run scoring on a home run) under his belt this postseason, a five-inning game against the Diamondbacks and a six-plus inning game in Chicago.  Darvish can be hit in the postseason, having allowed four home runs to the Blue Jays in Game 2 of the 2016 ALDS.

As a former division foe, Darvish is a known quantity for the Astros and they have had varying levels of success against him.  This year Darvish faced them twice, the first time losing a 7-1 decision in five innings as Correa launched a three-run blast off of him.  His second performance against Houston was better, allowing just one run over seven.  In three starts in 2016 he was 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA.

Good Lance has been on display this month.  He has faced the Dodgers once, at Minute Maid Park in 2015; he took a no-decision after working seven innings and allowing two runs.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Forsythe vs. McCullers: 7 AB, .286/.286/.429
Go check the box score from 8/23/2015 for pretty much everyone else

Springer vs. Darvish: 18 AB, .333/.333/.667
Altuve vs. Darvish: 32 AB, .219/.342/.281
Correa vs. Darvish: 15 AB, .200/.200/.467
Beltran vs. Darvish: 10 AB, .200/.273/.200
Reddick vs. Darvish: 25 AB, .160/.185/.240
Marwin vs. Darvish: 14 AB, .143/.200/.143
McCann vs. Darvish: 11 AB, .091/.167/.182

WORLD SERIES GAME 1 POST-MORTEM
Dodgers 3, Astros 1

With an amorphous blob of a strike zone, a pitcher like Kershaw dealing, and Justin Turner reaching up and sending a chest-high Keuchel pitch just over the left field fence, you kind of just throw up your hands and move on because it clearly wasn’t in the cards tonight.  I bet Springer would like one or two of his ABs back, though.

Really, outside of just one pitch – his first of the game – Keuchel pitched a great game and got a lot of help from his defense, who turned three double plays.  He just got burned on the aforementioned high pitch to Turner while Kershaw and Friends outdueled him.  If there’s a positive sign, though, it’s that Peacock and Devenski both turned in scoreless outings, with Devenski in particular looking on point.

WORLD SERIES GAME 2 – LA leads 1-0

Wednesday, October 25, 7:09pm CDT – Dodger Stadium
Justin Verlander (4-0, 1.46) vs. Rich Hill (0-0, 3.00)

I’ve run out of things to say about Verlander, so instead I’ll just get right to his record against the Dodgers.  Verlander actually faced the Dodgers this season in his third-to-last start with Detroit.  It went well: he scattered two hits (one of which was a solo homer, the only run) and a walk over eight innings while fanning nine.  He has never pitched at Dodger Stadium.

Hill had the closest thing to a healthy season as a starter in a decade, starting 25 games for the first time since 2007.  After a shaky start to the year that had his ERA above 5 by mid-June, he worked it down to 3.32 by the end of the season, aided by sub-2 ERAs in July and September.  In this postseason Hill has divided his nine innings between two Game 2s: four innings of two-run ball in the NLDS and five innings of one-run ball in the NLCS.

Hill has ten career appearances against the Astros, although most of them either came in relief or were way back in the Astros’ National League days.  He did start against Houston twice in 2016 as a member of the A’s, though, and took home a 1-1 record and 2.25 ERA against the club in two six-inning quality starts.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Utley vs. Verlander: 6 AB, .333/.333/.500
Gutierrez vs. Verlander: 38 AB, .263/.300/.474
Forsythe vs. Verlander: 9 AB, .222/.222/.222

Maybin vs. Hill: 5 AB, .400/.500/.400
Beltran vs. Hill: 11 AB, .273/.273/.545
Altuve vs. Hill: 5 AB, .200/.333/.800
Springer vs. Hill: 5 AB, .200/.333/.600
McCann vs. Hill: 9 AB, .111/.200/.111

ASTROS vs. DODGERS
The 2017 World Series

205 regular season wins.  Two teams that are undefeated at home in the postseason.  Scary pitching.  Scary offense.  Everything a World Series should be.

Each of these teams will be the toughest test the other has had so far.  Despite facing – and beating – the #4 and #5 pitching staffs in MLB this postseason, the Astros must now take down the #2 Dodgers staff (complete with a fucking lights-out bullpen) if they want a ring.  On the other hand, the Dodgers have not faced an offense nearly as complete as the Astros; Arizona and Chicago were similar in some aspects but hardly as potent.

Plus, the Astros have had to get off the mat after being pushed to the brink in very demoralizing fashion.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers have sleepwalked through the postseason, trailing in only eleven full postseason innings out of their eight games (seven innings of which came in their only loss, Game 4 of the NLCS).

Also, this:

And we’re all just living in it, I guess.

PITCHING

Regular season:

Team ERA: Houston 4.12 (11th), LA 3.38 (2nd)
Starter ERA: Houston 4.03 (6th), LA 3.39 (1st)
Bullpen ERA: Houston 4.27 (17th), LA 3.38 (4th)
Quality starts: Houston 67 (18th), LA 68 (T-16th)
K/9: Houston 9.91 (2nd), LA 9.65 (4th)
BAA: Houston .240 (6th), LA .228 (T-1st)
OPS against: Houston .720 (9th), LA .671 (1st)

Postseason team ERAs: Houston 3.79, LA 2.28

I was surprised to find that a pitching staff that has mowed down so many over the last few weeks gave up the second-most homers (14) in the postseason, behind only the Cubs.  Although this plays into one of the Astros’ main offensive strengths, especially given that the Dodgers allowed three more bombs than the Astros in three fewer games, it cannot be avoided that this Dodgers staff is loaded.  Five of the seven relievers on the LA roster remain unscathed in the run column.  Darvish and Hill are both averaging better than 11 K/9, Kershaw is doing Kershaw things, and only Kershaw is averaging over 80 pitches per start.

Although not quite as successful on paper, the Astros have found a formidable postseason rotation in Keuchel, Verlander, and McCullers (and, when dealing like he did in Game 7, Morton).  With guys like McHugh, Giles, and hell, even Gregerson rested and ready, Houston can hold up well in the late innings.  However, if postseason-to-date gas cans like Devenski and Musgrove find their way to the mound, may we live in interesting times.

OFFENSE

Regular season:

Runs scored: Houston 896 (1st), LA 770 (12th)
Home runs: Houston 238 (2nd), LA 221 (11th)
Extra-base hits: Houston 604 (1st), LA 553 (6th)
Batting average: Houston .282 (1st), LA .249 (22nd)\
OBP: Houston .346 (1st), LA .334 (T-6th)
Strikeouts: Houston 1,087 (1st), LA 1,380 (18th)
Stolen bases: Houston 98 in 140 tries (70%; 23rd), LA 77 in 105 tries (73.33%; 12th)
GIDP: Houston 139 (T-24th), LA 119 (T-10th)

Postseason slash line: Houston ..247/.324/.407, LA .273/.378/.494

As a whole, the Dodgers have out-Astro’d the Astros in the offensive department this postseason.  The ALCS did a number on Houston’s offensive numbers, both collectively as well as with a few individuals.  They picked a bad time to hit a slump, but they also picked a good time to start digging out of it, and the late-ALCS ABs by the likes of Gattis and McCann, who were previously ice cold for the series, can only be encouraging.  The Astros need to get better production from a lot of different guys, though, starting with Springer and whichever of Reddick or Bregman is filling the #2 slot on any given night.

The Dodgers benefited from an outstanding year by Justin Turner who set a career high in OPS (.945) and WAR (6.1) and a career low in strikeouts (56) for a full season.  Six LA hitters, including Turner, bashed over 20 home runs this year, with Cody Bellinger leading the way with 39.  However, they also had six hitters with 100+ strikeouts; the Astros only had two, and one of them (Beltran) is not likely to get many ABs in the series, at least in LA.

In the postseason the Dodgers have averaged six runs per game while allowing just over two runs per game.  The Astros clock in at four and just under four, respectively.

DEFENSE

We’ve seen the Astros defense play up to its potential and make some huge plays this postseason, whether it’s this one or that one or the other one or oh by the way this one.  These are the kinds of things that don’t look sexy in the box score but have a very tangible effect on games.

Not having watched the Dodgers much, I can’t comment much on their defense.  I can say that they committed 88 errors in the regular season for a 12th-best .985 fielding percentage, and the defensive metrics loooooooove the Dodgers, to a tune of a cumulative 62.1 defensive runs above average vs. -46.9 for the Astros.

INJURIES

Los Angeles – Corey Seager worked out on Sunday and Monday and will be on the World Series roster after missing the NLCS.  At the time of this writing the Dodgers had not yet announced a corresponding roster move.

Houston – At the time of this writing, Jake Marisnick’s status for the Fall Classic is uncertain.

OVERALL

No matter how you slice it, this series is an excellent matchup with a number of potential outcomes.  The Dodgers have gone through the postseason the way a pit bull might chomp on a chihuahua, shake it a couple of times, and toss it aside like a rag doll.  The AL side of the bracket is littered with highly-touted pitchers – Sale, Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Robertson, Green, Chapman – that the Astros got huge hits off of to keep on moving.  Unstoppable force, immovable object, etc.

Also, this:

Should be an exciting (read: stressful) series.  May we all be graced by Lasorda’s inverted ass, symbolically or otherwise.

WORLD SERIES GAME 1

Tuesday, October 2014, 7:09pm CDT – Dodger Stadium
Dallas Keuchel (2-1, 2.60) vs. Clayton Kershaw (2-0, 3.63)

Keuchel’s ALCS Game 5 is the only blemish on his stellar postseason, and he still struck out eight Yankees in that shitfest of a game.  He has never faced the Dodgers in his career.

Kershaw turned in another fantastic 2017 season, leading the NL in wins (18) and ERA (2.31), leading MLB in fewest walks allowed (30) among qualifying pitchers, and placing second only to Max Scherzer in WHIP.  He closed the first half of his season with a sick 2.18 ERA, then notched it down to 2.04 before a lower back strain sidelined him for the entire month of August.  He was slightly more hittable in September, with his ERA for that month a whopping 3.48.

Oddly, Kershaw has given up six home runs this postseason, four of which were to the Diamondbacks in the NLDS, and five of which were of the solo variety.  He has had the luxury of not pitching in many high leverage situations this postseason.  The Dodger bats staked him early, crooked leads in the NLDS and in Game 5 of the NLCS.  Only in Game 1 of the NLCS did he ever pitch when behind, and that lasted for an entire inning before the Dodgers tied it and pulled away.

Kershaw racked up a number of starts against the Astros while they were in the National League, and his only recent work against them is a 2015 start in which he went eight innings and allowed only one run while striking out ten.  The Astros won that game.  Bitch.

Select pitcher/batter matchups:

Forsythe vs. Keuchel: 20 AB, .350/.350/.450
Gutierrez vs. Keuchel: 15 AB, .067/.067/.067

Altuve vs. Kershaw: 15 AB, .400/.400/.667
Gattis vs. Kershaw: 7 AB, .286/.286/.429
Beltran vs. Kershaw: 22 AB, .227/.280/.318
Maybin vs. Kershaw: 30 AB, .133/.212/.133