ATHLETICS AT ASTROS

JUNE 27-29, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Astros got less than 11 innings over 3 games from their starting pitchers. Naturally, they won 2 of 3.

Oakland recovered from their home sweep at the hands of the Astros by traveling to Chicago and sweeping the White Sox. No veterans were cut in the making of this sweep.

Schedule/probables

Tuesday, June 27 – 7:10 PM CDT

Manaea (6-4, 4.05) at Fiers (5-2, 3.81)

Starting pitchers with a lower ERA than Mike Fiers over the last month:

CC Sabathia, Max Scherzer, and Corey Klueber

That’s a pretty good list. Oh, and Fiers’ last start against Oakland was among those June starts – 6 innings, 3 hits, and 1 run. If he can do that again, he has a decent chance to be the AL Pitcher of the Month – and if you thought that was anywhere in the realm of possibility 30 days ago, then you’re in need of medical intervention for either mental illness, substance abuse, or both.

(Statcast note: lost among the lack of home runs is that Fiers’ ground ball rate has gone from 43.3% during his first 9 starts to 63.1% in his last 5 starts.)

Manaea has pitched well against the Astros, allowing 2 and 3 runs in his 2 starts this season, but the A’s have taken the loss in both games.

Wednesday, June 28 – 7:10 PM CDT

Hahn (3-5, 4.66) at Paulino (2-0, 5.04)

Things did not go well for Hahn during his last outing, against the Astros.

I’m sorry… things did not go well for Custer at Little Bighorn. Hahn, on the other hand, was a disaster: 10 runs allowed in 2 innings pitched. This leaves the Astros hitting just under .300 (20 for 67) against Hahn. Can Hahn beat the Astros by himself? The odds are approximately 3,720 to 1.

Paulino makes his second consecutive start against the A’s, and if he can give AJ Hinch the same as the first time (5 1/3, 3 runs) then he’ll probably consider it a success.

Thursday, June 29 – 1:10 PM CDT

Cotton (5-7, 5.02) at Peacock (4-1, 2.82)

The Astros missed Cotton during the last series, but the feeling was not mutual; Cotton had allowed 10 hits and 6 runs to the Good Guys back in April. The Astros have hit .295 against Jharel, so I think it’s safe to say they enjoy the look and feel of Cotton.

Peacock returns from paternity leave to post another turn against the A’s, after his 5 2/3 inning start in the last series. Another such start with only 1 run allowed would certainly be nice, and might help to ensure a continued place in the rotation while injuries continue to sort themselves out.

ASTROS @ MARINERS
June 23-25, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Astros (50-24) just polished off a four-game sweep of the A’s in Oakland.

The Mariners (38-37) finished up a tour-game sweep of their own, scoring 27 runs against the Tigers.  The M’s have shoved their way into second place in the AL West and are one of the many .500-ish teams clogging up the wild card standings.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, June 23 – 9:10pm CDT
Joe Musgrove (4-6, 5.09) vs. Felix Hernandez (2-2, 4.73)

Musgrove was the loser in last Sunday’s frustrating game against the Red Sox, giving up five runs in 4.2 innings but getting insufficient help from his offense.  He pitched back-to-back starts against the Hags to open the season, combining for five runs and 12 hits on 10.1 innings.

There’s not much of a book on King Felix this year, having been on the DL since late April.  Expect to see him on some sort of pitch count tonight.  The Astros beat him on Opening Day, with Springer’s and Correa’s solo homers being the only real mistakes he made in the game.

Saturday, June 24 – 9:10pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (6-1, 2.58) vs. Sam Gaviglio (3-1, 3.43)

LMJ is back from the DL, the second of the Astros’ starters to return to action.  Houston has won eight of Lance’s last ten starts, including a 2-1 decision against the Mariners the day after Opening Day.

Gaviglio got his first call to the bigs in May to plug leaks in the Mariners rotation.  In five of his seven starts he has allowed two or fewer earned runs and he boasts a very good 1.19 WHIP.  He is a Keuchel clone, with a fastball that just reaches the low 90s and a sinker/slider combo that induces lots of ground balls.

Sunday, June 25 – 3:10pm CDT
Brad Peacock (4-1, 2.82) vs. Ariel Miranda (6-3, 4.04)

Peacock struck out eight A’s in 5.2 innings while allowing just one run.  His only appearances against the M’s this year have been in relief, working out of the bases-loaded-no-out jam (after allowing a walk) in the extra-inning game George Springer ended up walking off, and two innings of one-hit relief in Seattle.

Miranda has been pretty solid all year, allowing two or fewer runs in eight of his last ten starts.  The other two starts were doozies, though – eight runs allowed to the Phillies and six to the Twins.  He’s 0-1 in two starts against Houston this season.

ASTROS @ A’S
June 19-22, 2017

While driving in Austin this morning I saw a father and son playing catch in their front yard a couple of blocks from the office.  Greg Gibson called them strikes from his Houston hotel room.

What happened in the last series?

With the exception of Saturday’s game, the Astros (46-24) forgot how to hit with runners in scoring position.  Between Friday’s and Sunday’s games they combined for a shitty 4×19 with 19 left on base.

Meanwhile, the AL-worst A’s (31-38) just swept the Yankees in four games.  What in the double fuck?

Schedule/Probables

Monday, June 19 – 9:05pm CDT
Brad Peacock (3-1, 3.00) vs. Daniel Gossett (0-1, 16.20)

Peacock rebounded from getting blown up by the Angels and allowed one earned run while striking out ten Rangers in 4.2 innings.  He has made two relief appearances against the A’s this year, allowing a total of six baserunners.

Injuries to Kendall Graveman and Andrew Triggs necessitated Gossett making his major league debut against the Marlins last week.  As you can see by his numbers, it didn’t go so well: six earned runs (seven total) in just 3.1 innings of work.  Gossett rocketed through three levels of the A’s farm system last season and had a 3.41 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in AAA this year before the callup.  He has average command of four pitches and relies on soft contact.

Tuesday, June 20 – 9:05pm CDT
Francis Martes (1-0, 5.19) vs. Sonny Gray (2-2, 4.44)

Martes picked up his first big league win, battling through five innings against the Rangers in a game that the Astros eventually made uninteresting.

A potential trade target for the Astros, Gray was on the DL during April which was the last time the Astros and A’s played.  He’s had his ups (7 IP, 1 ER, 11 K’s vs. the Fish) and downs (4.2 IP, 7 ER vs. the Tribe) and hasn’t notched a W since May 24.  Since 2015 he’s 3-1 with a 2.87 ERA against Houston.

Wednesday, June 21 – 9:05pm CDT
Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.00) vs. Sean Manaea (6-3, 4.01)

About a month ago, saying that Fiers would be your best pitcher in June would’ve caused many here to start looking for cliffs to jump off of.  Fiers has lived up to that label, though, going 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA in his last four starts.  He has not faced the A’s this year, and last year he was 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA in three starts against Oakland.

The Astros have already seen Manaea once this year, when he no-hit them through five innings but walked the bases loaded and got burned by some defensive dick-stepping.  That game was one of the early patented Houston comebacks, with the Astros winning 10-6 after being down 5-0.  The A’s have not lost a Manaea start since May 15, a stretch of six starts where he’s gone 5-0 with four quality starts.

Thursday, June 22 – 2:35pm CDT
David Paulino (1-0, 5.03) vs. Jesse Hahn (3-4, 3.56)

It took him a few games but Paulino finally earned his first MLB win against the Red Sox.  He has never faced the A’s.

Hahn has been the A’s best starter this season despite already having a DL stint to nurse a bum shoulder.  Since coming off the DL a couple weeks ago he’s only made it past the 5th inning once.  The Astros beat him in April with eight hits and four total runs off him in six innings.

RED SOX @ ASTROS
June 16-18, 2017

It’s time for another series preview which, given recent history, means that the pitching matchups outlined below will certainly be obsolete by first pitch tonight.

What happened in the last series?

The Red Sox (37-29) come to Houston on top of the AL Wild Card standings and have won five of their last seven, winning a three-game series against the Tigers and a four-game series against the Phillies.  Much like the Astros, the Sox have been dealing with pitching injuries lately, as three of their 2017 starters (Brian Johnson, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Steven Wright) are on the DL, and that’s after losing Roenis Elias and Tyler Thornburg before Opening Day.  They have Chris Sale, of course, but the Astros managed to dodge him for this series (at the time of this writing, at least).

The Astros (45-22) avoided a sweep at the hands of the Rangers and finally got an off-day to rest their arms.  Some significant innings from the rotation would be nice for the next 10-game stretch.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, June 16 – 7:10pm CDT
Drew Pomeranz (6-4, 4.48) vs. Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.29)

Pomeranz has had his ups and downs this season, and in eight of his twelve starts he has failed to complete six innings (of those eight, he’s only made it to the 6th inning twice).  He’s prone to giving up crooked numbers every now and then (he just allowed five earned runs to the Tigers), but he’s largely been effective at holding the score down, just not pitching very economically.  The Astros have not faced him since 2015, when he pitched in seven games (three starts) as a member of the A’s.  As a reliever he had a 0 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP against the Astros; as a starter he had a 5.02 ERA and 1.605 WHIP.

Let’s hear it for Fiers, huh?  Three straight effective starts, three straight wins, and he’s brought his ERA down by nearly a whole run in less than a month.  The Red Sox offense does present some danger, although Fiers did decently in limited work against Boston last year.  Their lineup bats only .250/.313/.295 against him.

Saturday, June 17 – 7:15pm CDT
Rick Porcello (3-8, 4.67) vs. David Paulino (0-0, 6.59)

Porcello lets a lot of guys on base – his 1.51 WHIP is 14th-worst in MLB.  That often comes in the form of hits, with four double-digit hit games this season.  He tempers the hits with low walks, a good number of strikeouts (his 82 K’s are 17th-best in MLB) and eating innings like a pro (in 14 starts, only once has he failed to complete six innings).  He’s coming off two straight games of allowing five earned runs to the Yankees (excusable) and Phillies (whaaaa?).  The Astros have not faced Porcello since 2014 when he was with the Tigers, so many sample sizes against him are small.  Of the ones that aren’t, Beltran is 9×25, McCann is 5×21, and Aoki shouldn’t be playing on Saturday is 1×15.

Paulino got punished in an all-around crappy game against the Angels, not factoring into the 12-6 loss despite giving up five runs in just four innings.  He has never pitched against the Red Sox.

Sunday, June 18 – 7pm
David Price (1-1, 5.09) vs. Joe Musgrove (4-5, 4.81)

The Astros’ second appearance on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball this year.  What ever would we poor Astros fans do to get primetime national exposure without the Yankees and Red Sox??  OWA’s thank-you card is already in the mail.

There has been much consternation about David Price’s injury-delayed start to the season and then his 5.09 ERA after four starts.  A closer look will show that he’s pitched two quality starts and gave up a crapload of runs to the Yankees (who hasn’t?  I mean, except for Keuchel and McCullers).  Goes to show that the east coast sports media often blows things out of proportion, while simultaneously making ridiculous claims like ESPN’s David Schoenfeld saying the Astros “have no weaknesses” a couple weeks ago.  Yeah, most on this site weren’t even saying that.  Anyway, Price pitched a good game against Houston in 2016 (6.2 IP, 1 ER, 12 K), and another solid outing as a Tiger in 2015 (6.2 IP, 2 ER, 12 K).  Expect to see McCann in the lineup on Sunday; he has a 1.029 OPS against Price in 29 AB.

Musgrove made a decent showing in Arlington coming off the DL, lasting only 4.2 innings but allowing just two runs and getting no run support whatsoever.  Like Paulino, this will also be his first start against the Sawks.

RANGERS @ ASTROS
June 12-14, 2017

These fucks again.

What happened in the last series?

The goddamn Rangers (30-32) inexplicably swept the Nationals in Washington, and even held them to six runs over the entire weekend.  Be on the alert for uppity Rangers fans and/or an uppity Dave Raymond as a result.

The Astros (44-20) badly need an off day.  Ten games in ten days with the suddenly exacerbated lack of pitching depth has not done the team any favors, dropping a home series to the sub-.500 Angels.  At least Musgrove is back from the DL.

Schedule/Probables

Monday, June 12 – 7:10pm CDT
Yu Darvish (5-4, 3.18) vs. Joe Musgrove (4-4, 4.89)

After the Astros bounced Darvish after just five innings, he lasted into the 8th inning against the Mets and gave up three runs.  The Rangers tied the game in the bottom of the inning, getting Darvish off the hook for the loss, their bully coughed it right back up in the 9th.

Musgrove’s last outing was spectacular (7 IP, 4 H, 0 R vs. the Orioles) but his earlier outing against the Rangers was not so good, and is the only game against the Rangers the Astros have lost this season.  I suspect he’ll also have some rust on him after not pitching in a game since May 26.

Tuesday, June 13 – 7:10pm CDT
Nick Martinez (1-3, 4.88) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (6-1, 2.58)

Martinez was on the receiving end of the 10-1 thrashing the Astros gave him in Houston, and threw 3+ innings of long relief during the Astros’ 7-2 win in Arlington on June 4.  That was the last time he has pitched.  Between those games, he’s allowed four or more runs three times.

McCullers is a badass, taking a no-hitter into the 7th against the Royals but unfortunately not factoring into the decision..

Wednesday, June 14 – 7:10pm CDT
Andrew Cashner (3-5, 3.17) vs. Brad Peacock (3-1, 3.15)

The Astros notched 11 hits on Cashner when they faced him in Arlington, but he made a decent turnaround in Washington on Friday, holding the Nationals to one run over seven innings.

Peacock had his first really rough start of the year against the Angels, allowing 11 baserunners while striking out just one batter in three innings.  He did have a quality start against the Rangers though.

ANGELS @ ASTROS
June 9-11, 2017

The Astros return to Fort Minute Maid for a nine-game homestand against the A’s, Rangers, and Red Sox.  The infirmary is getting pretty crowded.

What happened in the last series?

The Angels (31-32) just finished up a .500 road trip, winning three-game series in Atlanta and Detroit and losing a four-game set in Minnesota.  They have played .500 ball since the Astros came to Anaheim in early May and took two out of three from them.  The Angels are still hanging near the top 10 in team ERA, but the offense is in the bottom 10 in a number of categories.  Losing Mike Trout won’t help that.

The Astros (43-18) split the series in Kansas City, their first series split of the year.  If you’d told me on Monday morning that Houston was starting Paulino and Fiers in the series and that Dallas Keuchel would miss his start, I’d be happy with a 2-2 split.  Really should’ve been 3-1 but I’m not going to dwell on that too much with a 13-game lead in the division and a 7-game lead for the top seed in the AL.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, June 9 – 7:10pm CDT
Matt Shoemaker (5-3, 4.12) vs. Brad Peacock (3-0, 2.30)

The Astros have already handed Shoemaker two L’s this year.  The last one came in a 6 IP, 5 ER outing that the Angels lost 5-3, highlighted by a 3-run Altuve jack in the 3rd.  

Peacock turned in another nice start against the Rainjizz, earning his third win in a quality start.  While still in the bullpen he pitched two perfect innings with 3 K’s when the Angels came to town in April.

Saturday, June 10 – 3:10pm CDT
Ricky Nolasco (2-6, 5.05) vs. Mike Fiers (3-2, 4.84)

The Angels have lost seven straight games when Nolasco has been on the mound, and he has four straight losing decisions in as many starts.  The worst of those was a disastrous start against the Braves where he faced 17 batters in 2.2 innings and gave up six runs.  He did not face the Astros in May but did pitch a quality start against them in April, which the Angels won 5-2.

Don’t look now, but Fiers has gone two straight starts without allowing a home run and has also picked up two straight wins.  Fiers was the opposing (and winning) pitcher in Shoemaker’s 5-3 loss mentioned above.

Sunday, June 11 – 1:10pm CDT
Jesse Chavez (5-6, 4.56) vs. David Paulino (0-0, 4.66)

Chavez was in line for a loss in May’s series opener before Keuchel and Giles let a 6-2 lead slip away in the 9th inning.  In his starts since then, he’s notched two quality starts, fallen one out shy of two more, and given up five runs twice (one of which he won anyway).

Paulino hasn’t factored into a decision yet this season, but he deserved one in Kansas City.  In his only career work against the Angels last year he pitched three innings of one-hit scoreless relief.