ASTROS @ ROYALS
June 5-8, 2017

It’s been a hell of a week.

What happened in the last series?

The Astros are 41-16.  This enchubbens me.  (NOTE: Google Docs spellcheck has no problem with the word “enchubbens”.  This, too, enchubbens me.)

As much as the Astros have done this season, the Royals (24-31) have something the Astros don’t: a winning record against the Indians.  KC has taken four of six from the Tribe in their last nine games and are the only other team besides the Indians to win a series against the Astros this year.  Of course, that was back before the Houston offense really got out of first gear.  The Royals have one of the most anemic offenses in baseball: they are the only team that has scored fewer than 200 runs and are rock bottom in the AL in average, OBP, slugging, and walks.  The pitching has been a little better, mostly thanks to the 8th-best rotation ERA in baseball.  That’s no small feat considering they’ve had to deal with injuries (Danny Duffy and Nate Karns are on the DL; Ian Kennedy had some DL time in May) and the death of Yordano Ventura.

Schedule/Probables

Monday, June 5 – 7:15pm CDT
Mike Fiers (2-2, 4.96) vs. Ian Kennedy (0-5, 5.12)

Fiers tossed his second of two May quality starts against the Twins, striking out eight and allowing NO HOME RUNS for the first time this season.  He also pitched a quality start against the Royals in April but got no run support.

That could change this time around.  Kennedy closed the month of April with a 2.30 ERA but sported an 11.30 ERA in May, allowing 4+ earned runs in each start and a DL stint sandwiched in between.  He did really well against the Astros in two starts last year (2-0, 1.29).  However, Altuve, Aoki, Beltran, Gattis, and McCann all have a .900+ OPS against Kennedy.

Tuesday, June 6 – 7:15pm CDT
David Paulino (0-0, 4.50) vs. TBD/Jake Junis (1-0, 2.70)

Paulino did an admirable job filling in for Musgrove in Minneapolis, allowing two runs in four innings while punching out eight.

The Royals haven’t yet announced a starter for Tuesday’s game, and it looks like they’re using their off day last Thursday to rearrange their rotation a bit.  As such it’s been hard to nail down who they might use, but the best guess I’ve seen so far may be Jake Junis.  Junis made his MLB debut in April and made a couple of relief appearances before a spot start against the Twins.  Consensus seems to have his ceiling as a back-of-rotation guy, with low-90s velocity and decent command of his offspeed stuff.

I suppose there’s also a chance that Nate Karns comes off the DL and pitches this game, but I haven’t seen any speculation to that effect – only that he was eligible to come off the DL on 5/31 and wouldn’t miss more than 1-2 starts.

Wednesday, June 7 – 7:15pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (9-0, 1.67) vs. Jason Vargas (7-3, 2.08)

Keuchel’s seven-inning, one-run performance against the Royals in April is one of his two no-decisions for the year.  Thanks Gerry Obama Gregerson.

Duffy may be considered the Royals’ ace but Vargas has been their best starter this season.  After making just 12 starts in 2015 and 2016 combined he’s having the best season of his career.  Nearly half of his 11 starts were shutouts and he routinely works into the 6th inning and beyond (including a complete game shutout of the Indians last week).  One of his many quality starts came against the Astros in April, allowing one run over six innings.

Thursday, June 8 – 7:15pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (6-1, 2.71) vs. Jason Hammel (2-6, 5.93)

The Rangers (and the Astros defense) made McCullers work too hard to qualify for the win on Saturday, but he still racked up eight strikeouts.  His seven-inning, three-run game against the Royals prevented a sweep and was the first of two 10 K games for him this year.

The Royals are 2-9 when Hammel is on the hill.  The two wins came in quality starts against the Indians.  The losses are a combination of a lack of run support (losing 2-1 to the Giants, 3-0 to the Yankees) and some less-than-good pitching (e.g. 6 ER on 13 hits allowed to the Rays).  He has little meaningful experience against the modern-day Astros: just a 5.50 ERA in three starts against them when he was with the A’s in 2014.

ASTROS @ TWINS
May 29-31, 2017

My dad is a veteran, drafted away from his white-collar job to join the Army in the latter years of Vietnam.  He didn’t want to join the military – he says the day the letter came in the mail was one of the worst days of his life – and lucked out with one deferment, but his number eventually came up.  Being in the Army is an indelible part of his life: my oldest sister was born on base at Fort Bliss.

Dad doesn’t see himself as a veteran so he doesn’t talk about it much, although we have heard some stories.  He told us about how he was given advice to blend into the crowd and not stand out (good or bad), but was randomly chosen to be a squad leader within a half-hour of reporting for duty.  He also had strep throat and a 103F fever during basic training but didn’t dare tell anyone about it.  He heard the phrase “your ass is grass and I’m a lawnmower” for the first time from his drill sergeant.

Fortunately, he was never shipped overseas, got transferred to an electronics unit, and was eventually honorably discharged as the war drew down.  Dad was one of the lucky ones, but many haven’t been so lucky.  A friend of mine died while serving in the Middle East, and I have other friends in and out of the military who know plenty of others who died while serving this country.

May we never forget those who make the ultimate sacrifice so that we can bitch about baseball from behind our keyboards.

What happened in the last series?

The Astros (35-16) capped off a 6-4 homestand by sweeping the Orioles and stretching their division lead to ten games.  Charlie Morton now stands to miss significant time with a lat strain, which should only increase the pressure on Luhnow to trade for some starting pitching.

The Twins (26-20) are baseball’s early worst-to-first story, leading their division less than a year removed from a 103-loss season.  They’re a fairly unspectacular bunch: they have a +1 run differential and are pretty average in many pitching and offensive categories.  They kind of resemble the early 2015 Astros: great on the road (14-5), not so great at home (12-15).

Schedule/Probables

In the interest of time and an assortment of meat currently on my grill, I’m only going to hit on the Twins pitchers here (NTTAWWT).

Monday, May 29 – 1:10pm CDT
Brad Peacock (2-0, 0.87) vs. Ervin Santana (7-2, 1.80)

Santana has been eating innings with the best of them (no starts of less than six innings), and aside from a couple of meh starts against the BoSox and Rockies he has looked every bit the part of an ace.  He has not faced the Astros since 2015, when he went 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and racked up 21 strikeouts.

Tuesday, May 30 – 7:10pm CDT
Mike Fiers (1-2, 5.21) vs. Jose Berrios (3-0, 1.66)

After a 2016 season in which he clocked an 8+ ERA, Berrios has made three starts, all of them of the quality variety.  He went 1-1 with an 8.59 ERA against Houston last season.

Wednesday, May 31 – 12:10pm CDT
Joe Musgrove (4-4, 4.89) vs. Hector Santiago (4-4, 4.31)

Santiago is almost always good for about three runs a start this year.  Last year he was 0-1 against the Astros with a 3.86 ERA.

ORIOLES @ ASTROS
May 26-28, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Orioles (25-20) just got swept by the Twins at home and have lost nine of their last 12.  They’re not particularly good on the road, with a 10-13 record away from Camden Yards.

Meanwhile, the Astros (32-16) were able to wash out a little bit of the bad taste from the Indians sweep, taking three of four from the Tigers in sometimes-ugly fashion.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, May 26 – 7:10pm CDT
Kevin Gausman (2-3, 6.65) vs. Joe Musgrove (3-4, 5.63)

More like Kevin Gascan, amirite???  Gausman is prone to getting lit up, with a WHIP of 1.86 and having had several starts where he’s allowed 4-5 runs or more.  He’s done better of late, though, with quality starts against the Blue Jays and Nationals.  He had a 6.17 ERA against the Astros last season despite racking up 15 K’s in two starts.

Musgrove would almost certainly like to have back his disastrous start against the Indians.  The O’s may not be the best team to rebound against: last year he gave up eight runs in 5.1 innings in Baltimore.

Saturday, May 27 – 6:15pm CDT
Wade Miley (1-2, 2.59) vs. Dallas Keuchel (7-0, 1.84)

Miley has been one of the better Orioles starters this year, at times times able to work deep into games (three starts of seven or more innings).  He’s been haunted by allowing walks, though, with five starts where he’s allowed four or more free passes.  Only his 49 K’s keep his K:BB ratio anywhere close to respectability.  The Astros faced him three times in 2016 and hung a 6.28 ERA on him.

This will be Keuchel’s first start back from the DL, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a relatively low pitch count.  I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a very effective outing anyway; he pitched eight innings of 2-run ball against the O’s last season.

Sunday, May 28 – 1:10pm CDT
Ubaldo Jimenez (1-2, 7.17) vs. Lance McCullers, Jr. (5-1, 2.43)

Look for the Waldo family behind the Astros bullpen in this one.  Or don’t.

Jimenez has been the worst regular starter for Baltimore in 2017.  Outside of a relief appearance and a two-hitter he took into the 8th against the Reds, he’s been tagged with four or more earned runs in every other appearance he’s had this year.

McCullers, of course, had a fantastic outing against the Tigers, giving up the only hit in the combined one-hitter on Tuesday.  He has been outstanding against the O’s through his short career, with a 2-0 record, 1.29 ERA, and 21(!) strikeouts in two starts.

TIGERS @ ASTROS SERIES PREVIEW

5/22/17-5/25/17

Right on time.

WHAT HAPPENED LAST SERIES?

Nothing.  Let’s assume the Astros swept the Willow Cleveland Wahoos at home and nobody went on the DL for a pinched nerve or concussion.  Moving on.

WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THIS SERIES?

The Tigers (21-21) stroll into town with a blackjack in each pocket.  The Astros got knocked down last weekend and need to get back up on their feet.

MONDAY, MAY 22

Brad Peacock and The Bullpen will go 9IP, 1H, 0ER.  Ausmus is still dreamy.  1-0 Astros.  Book it.

TUESDAY, MAY 23 7PM

Zimmerman (4-2) v McCullers Jr. (4-1)

WEDNESDAY, MAY 24 7PM

Norris (2-3) v Morton (5-3)

THURSDAY, MAY 25 7PM

Verlander (4-3) v Fiers (1-2)

INJURY REPORT

ASTROS

Gustave (right forearm, throwing shut down)

Keuchel (pinched nerve in neck, will miss one start)

McCann (concussion)

McHugh (now playing catch)

TIGERS

Adduci (katsaridaphobia)

ASTRO ANAGRAMS

1. Bang! Relax Me
2. A Racer’s Color
3. Oval Jet Use
4. Abs/Knives
5. Locators Tent
6. Bee Noisy. Out.
7. Cordial, Rad High
8. Jeff Kent
9. Harnessed Only
10. Sibyl’s Peril

BONUS

Bye, Acne Jar!

INDIANS @ ASTROS
May 19-21, 2017

The Astros kick off a 10-game homestand against the Indians, Tigers, and Orioles.  After spending much of the month of May pounding sub-.500 teams, they’re also starting a stretch of 22 out of 26 games against teams that are, at the time of this writing, at or above .500 on the season.

What happened in the last series?

Cleveland (20-19) dropped a midweek series to the Rays and come to Houston having lost three straight series.  They are 8-10 since taking two of three from the Astros in April.  Their bullpen is still excellent, but their starters have nudged a little worse since we last saw them: with a starters ERA of 5.15, only the Reds are worse, and 18 losses from the rotation (T-2nd worst in MLB) show that the team isn’t digging out of very many holes their starters dig them.

That could be a problem when they’re facing an Astros team that has gotten better at scoring earlier in games.  Since their trip to Cleveland, Houston (29-12) has turned into a rolling ball of knives, going 15-4 and coming off a sweep of a listless Marlins team in Miami.  They start the weekend with a 7.5 game division lead over those fuckers in the metroplex.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, May 19 – 7:10pm CDT
Trevor Bauer (3-4, 6.92) vs. Charlie Morton (5-2, 3.97)

The Astros got their only win of the season series against Bauer, scoring four runs in six innings.  He has continued to struggle with consistency: the Tigers lit him up for seven runs on May 1, and he still has not allowed fewer than two runs in a game.

Morton racked up ten K’s against the Yanks and he has wins in four straight starts.  The Cleveland lineup is full of small sample sizes (NTTAWWT) against Morton; those who faced him did so in his only career start against the Indians in 2015, when he lost a quality start.  But, for what it’s worth, they are a combined .118/.250/.118 against him.

Saturday, May 20 – 3:10pm CDT
Mike Clevinger (1-1, 2.61) vs. Mike Fiers (1-1, 5.75)

Clevinger came up from the minors when Corey Kluber went on the DL and has made two starts and one relief appearance.  Don’t let his ERA fool you… there’s some potential here.  In his first start he tossed 5.2 shutout innings against an awful Kansas City lineup that is dead last in many offensive categories.  Then he got pulled in the 5th inning after allowing three runs to a Twins lineup that isn’t much better at scoring runs.  Between those two starts he has walked nine batters.

All things considered, Fiers actually didn’t do that bad against the Yankees and was in line for a win before Harris and Devenski went supernova.  Too bad.

Oddly enough, this is a repeat of a matchup between the Astros and Indians in Cleveland last September.  Clevinger got the start as the Tribe deployed a starter-by-committee approach for the game.  The Astros scratched out a run in the first on Clevinger and went on to win 6-2, with Fiers picking up his 10th win after five innings of two-run ball.  It was also Fiers’s second win against the Indians last season, having held them to one run over seven innings earlier in the year.

Sunday, May 21 – 1:10pm CDT
Danny Salazar (2-4, 5.66) vs. Joe Musgrove (3-3, 4.57)

Like Bauer, Salazar has struggled with consistency (the good kind, at least).  He’s usually good for 5-6 innings and about three runs per start, although he’s allowed five runs in consecutive starts and just gave up a Fiersian four home runs to the Rays.  He did have a good outing against the Astros last year, working five innings while allowing a run and striking out ten.  That game turned into the 16-inning marathon the Astros ended up winning.

Musgrove fell one out short of back-to-back quality starts, holding the Marlins to one run over 5.2 innings.  He has not yet pitched against the Indians.