ASTROS @ INDIANS
April 25-27, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Indians are 10-8 after taking two out of three from the White Sox in Chicago, with back-to-back 3-hitters on Friday and Saturday by Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco.  This was on the heels of basically sweeping the Twins (a fourth game in the series got rained out).  Cleveland’s 7th-best bullpen ERA is largely offset by their 2nd-worst starter ERA (4.81), although that number was certainly helped by last weekend’s shutouts.  The Tribe boast an offense not entirely dissimilar to the Astros’, with AVG, OPS, and runs all in the top tier or just below and strikeouts in short supply.

The Astros just won a series in Tampa for the first time in nearly a decade, continuing to find ways to win in come-from-behind fashion.  Jake Marisnick is going through the concussion protocol and may not be available for this series after catching Tropicana’s center field wall with his face.

Schedule/Probables

Tuesday, April 25 – 5:10pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (3-0, 0.96) vs. Josh Tomlin (1-2, 11.68)

There’s not much to say about Keuchel – so far this year he’s been good for seven innings and one run or less every time, and with a sub-1 ERA and WHIP he’s been a machine.  He’s also 3-0 against Cleveland for his career.

Tomlin is obviously not likely to continue posting the stats he has – 1.93 WHIP, .393 BAA – but I’ll be happy if he waits another week or so before he really turns things around.  He actually posted a quality start against the Twins after getting beaten up by the White Sox and Diamondbacks.  Somewhat remarkably, he has only pitched against the Astros once since they’ve been not-shitty: a single scoreless inning in his only relief appearance last season.

Wednesday, April 26 – 5:10pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (2-0, 3.38) vs. Trevor Bauer (1-2, 6.35)

McCullers turned in his best outing of the season against the Angels last Thursday, taking a shutout into the 7th before getting pulled after walking a pair.  He has never faced Cleveland, although Edwin Encarnacion took him deep as a Blue Jay.

Like Tomlin, Bauer pitched his best game against the Twins, getting his first win while allowing less than four runs for the first time.  Despite his early struggles the Astros will have to overcome some history – Bauer is 5-0 with a 1.96 ERA in five career starts against Houston.

Thursday, April 27 – 5:10pm CDT
Mike Fiers (0-1, 5.40) vs. Corey Kluber (2-1, 4.28)

Prepare your drinking game of choice.  Fiers is one long ball short of tying the MLB lead and, if his current pattern continues, will give up four home runs in this game.  He did pick up two wins against the Indians in 2016, though, so who the hell knows?

Kluber pitched a complete-game three-hit shutout and faced only two batters over the minimum against the White Sox in his last start.  This was a nice rebound from a couple of tough outings against Detroit and the Rangers.  He has had mixed success against the Astros in the past; last year he was 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA against Houston, but did much better in 2014 and 2015.

What just happened?

The RAYS are coming off a 3-game home sweep of the Tigers where they averaged 7 runs scored per game, vaulting them all the way to… 9-8. (Seriously, folks. The AL Central is decidedly not good.) Youngster Steven Souza, Jr. is leading the team, presumably at a brisk marching tempo.

The ASTROS just secured 3 of 4 at home from the Halos by scoring… 12 runs? That’s it, 12 runs in 4 games, but we still won 3 of them? Damn, it’s nice to have good pitching.

The Astros’ winning streak has been attributed to eating grasshoppers and the fans using Ric Flair’s trademark “WOOOOOO!” This author is torn as to these trends – nobody should eat grasshoppers, and nobody but Ric Flat should WOO. But a team on a streak respects the streak, and when you’re 11-5, you don’t go changing.

Friday, April 21, 6:10 PM CDT

Fiers (0-1, 5.40) at Cobb (1-1, 4.50)

Current Rays have hit Fiers to a .294 line (15 for 51), but at least he’s only recorded 1 walk. Beware of Logan Morrison (5 for 13) but hope to face Brad Miller (1 for 7).

Current Astros have only managed to go 7 for 35 against Cobb, including 9 strikeouts and 2 walks. Almost all of the hits are courtesy of Brian McCann, who has gone 6 for 12 with a pair of homers. Reddick has the only other hit, but that’s part of a 1 for 15 record including 5 strikeouts.

None of this bodes well. Get the bullpen ready.

 Saturday, April 22, 5: 10 PM CDT

Morton (1-1, 2.81) at Snell (0-2, 2.76)

Morton has allowed a .269 average (14 for 52) to current rays, with 10 strikeouts and 4 walks – and only 1 home run. Corey Dickerson has touched him up at a 4 for 9 clip, and Logan Morrison has gone 4 for 8 with a pair of doubles. Rickie Weeks and his career 1 for 14 may sit this one out.

Snell, your standard fare crafty lefty, has been hammered in a small Astros sample – 11 for 24 with 2 homers. He has one career start against the Good Guys, a Minute Maid Park disaster where he gave up 5 runs on 9 hits in only 3 innings. Altuve, Aoki, and McCann are all 0 for 2 against him; pretty much everyone else touched him up.

Sunday, April 23, 12:10 PM CDT

Musgrove (1-1, 5.87) at Andriese (1-0, 3.38)

Let’s make this brief: Musgrove has never faced any of the Rays, and is coming off his Poo Holes Hazing treatment.

Andriese has held the Astros to 8 for 33 with 2 appearances. Altuve (3 for 4) is looking forward to this, while Beltran (1-7) and Reddick (0-4) will not.

ANGELS @ ASTROS
April 17-20, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Angels, leading the AL West just a week ago, got swept in a three-game set against the Royals after dropping a series to the Rangers – they have lost five straight.  They scored a total of only three runs in Kansas City, capped by a two-hit shutout on Sunday that they lost 1-0 on a walkoff single in the bottom of the 9th.  Their 4.69 team ERA is good for 25th in MLB, mostly due to a starting rotation that is 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA.  Although the bullpen’s stats are pretty middle of the road, the Astros would do well to do some damage early instead of climbing out of a multiple-run hole.  The Angels went 6-13 against Houston in 2016.

Having won the first two games in Oakland, the Astros had the heel of their boot against the A’s throat before Tony LaRussa the A’s canceled Sunday’s game due to weather.  This truly puts into perspective the brave – and, dare I say, heroic – efforts of the Giants, who bravely toughed out a downpour of Biblical proportions some rainfall and, against all odds, managed to play an outdoor baseball game at the same time just ten miles to the west.  G-men, know that your sacrifice has not been in vain.  We will never forget.  Carlos Correa wasn’t able to dodge an inside fastball literally on the hands on Saturday, but he has fortunately dodged the proverbial bullet and will not miss significant playing time; at the time of this writing he may even be available for Tuesday’s game.

Schedule/Probables

Monday, April 17 – 7:10pm CDT
Jesse Chavez (1-1, 5.40) vs. Charlie Morton (0-1, 4.09)

Chavez has been a mixed bag so far this season.  In his first start he beat the Mariners, falling one out short of a quality start.  The Rangers then hung an L on him, getting five runs and two bombs off of him in just 4.1 innings.  He has not faced the Astros since pitching an eight-inning one-run gem against them in 2015.  Altuve has hit him well for his career (7×20) but no other Astros hitter is better than .250 against him.

Morton lasted five innings against the Mariners and allowed three runs when just one would’ve been enough for a loss, with Seattle pitching a 6-0 shutout on the other side of the ball.  A longtime veteran of the NL East, he has only faced the Angels twice in his career: once in 2008 and again in 2013.  Four Angels hitters hit better than .400 against him, albeit with small sample sizes.

Tuesday, April 18 – 7:10pm CDT
Ricky Nolasco (0-2, 5.40) vs. Joe Musgrove (1-0, 4.35)

Nolasco has already allowed five home runs this season, and at least one in each of his three starts.  After coming over from the Twins in a midseason trade last year, he pitched seven innings of shutout ball against the Astros at MMP.  Brian McCann is a beastly .338/.352/.765 against Nolasco with 8 homers and 26 RBI in 68 ABs.  Beltran is a respectable .353/.421/.412, but everyone else either doesn’t have good numbers or doesn’t have many/any numbers, or both.

Backed by some timely hitting from his offense, Musgrove earned his first win of the season against the Hags, allowing three runs in 5.1 innings.  He did really well against the Angels in 2016, allowing one run over seven innings in his final start of the year.

Wednesday, April 19 – 7:10pm CDT
JC Ramirez (2-1, 7.20) vs. Mike Fiers (0-1, 5.40)

A pitcher with a W/L and ERA like Ramirez’s usually has a story behind him.  A career reliever, Ramirez started 2017 in the bullpen and owned a 2-0 record through three appearances, although one of those games was the blown-save/win ultimate bitch statistic in pitching.  Then Garrett Richards pulled a bicep and Ramirez was thrust into the rotation.  In his first career start he took the loss against Kansas City, giving up five runs in as many innings.  The Astros have faced him 11 times as a reliever in 2015 and 2016, tagging him with two blown saves and a 6.75 ERA.

The first five-run Astros comeback since 2008 got Fiers off the hook last Wednesday after allowing five runs in four sloppy innings of work.  The Angels hit well against him in 2016, giving him a 6.35 ERA in three appearances.

Thursday, April 20 – 1:10pm CDT
Matt Shoemaker (0-0, 6.14) vs. Dallas Keuchel (2-0, 0.86)

Like Nolasco, Shoemaker has allowed at least one homer in each of his starts this season.  Despite a bad second outing against the M’s where he allowed six earned runs in 4.1 innings, he rebounded against the Royals, taking a no-decision after five-plus innings of two-run ball.  Last year he was frustratingly good against the Astros, with a 2.22 ERA in four starts despite going 1-2.

What can I say?  Keuchel is doing Keuchel things, he has more wins against the Angels since 2014 (seven) than against any other team, and as a team they hit .253/.333/.380 against him.  Nom nom nom.

ASTROS @ ATHLETICS

Apr 14-16 2017

I spent a few months in Oakland a few years ago, and I genuinely enjoy the town.  Sure, our courthouse got shot at overnight (the judge discovered her office windows were NOT bulletproof when she found a bullet lodged in her microwave).  Sure, the city smells like San Francisco farted.  And sure, a skinny white flower girl ran up and punched me on my way to work because I needed to “watch my skin.”  But this is all background noise when you consider the city’s great beer bars, great burger joints and a great baseball culture.

There’s a neat little hipster clothes store along Broadway Ave that sells t shirts with ironic slogans and those essential floppy stocking caps that Legolas seems to sponsor.  I bought a shirt with a picture of a bus on it.  I’m not really sure why.

The A’s were doing their bi-monthly “we gonna leave, give more moneyz” thing while I was there, and the neat little hipster clothes store had their seasonal collection of “stAy” memorabilia hanging in the windows.  One sunny Saturday they had a special guest that created a line out the door: Josh Fucking Reddick.

Now, as a distinguished beardsman, I both applaud and abhor this look.  I love the idea of just never shaving ever again, but at some point you cross the Harry and the Henderson’s line.  Nobody thinks that looks good.

And as I passed the neat little hipster clothes store on this sunny Saturday, I peeked inside and caught a Mentos-style freeze frame of the famous baseball sasquatch high-fiving a beer-bellied patron and thought – I love this guy.  The city loves this guy.  I wish he was on my team.

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED ON THE WAY TO HOUSTON?!?

THE SERIES

I’m currently living Craig’s daily nightmare in Arkansas, so the only baseball I get on TV is Cardinals and Rangers and Cubs.  As such, I have not seen a single inning of Astros baseball this year.  So my analysis, such as it is, is based on stats, the GZ and my imagination.

FRIDAY, 9PM CST ROOT

Keuchel (1-0, 0.64 era) v Graveman (2-0, 2.08 era)

Battle of the Aces.

SATURDAY, 3PM CST ROOT

McCullers, Jr (1-0, 2.77 era) v Maneanaena (0-1, 7.15 era)

Each starting pitcher’s last name begins with an M.  Also Jackie Robinson day.

SUNDAY, 3PM CST ROOT

Morton (0-1, 4.09 era) v Cotton (1-1, 3.97 era)

That kinda rhymes.

PROMOTIONS

Not a damn thing.  Come to the ballpark to watch baseball, you damn hippies, not for some shiny handout.

INJURIES

OAKLAND

John Axford – Head

Chris Bassitt – Shoulders

Sonny Gray – Knees

Daniel Mengden – Toes

Jake Smolinski – Knees

Joe Wendle – Toes

HOUSTON

McHugh – Right elbow, out at least six weeks

Paulino – Right elbow, out for awhile

Follow the series on the GZ!

ASTROS @ MARINERS
April 10-12, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Mariners just got swept in Anaheim, and at 1-6 they stand alone as baseball’s worst team.  Of particular note is Sunday’s game wherein the M’s headed into the bottom of the 9th enjoying a 9-3 lead and a 99.8% win probability.  The Angels sent twelve men to the plate and rallied for seven LOL-inducing (it’s funny when it’s not happening to your team) runs, handing Seattle its second gut-wrenching walk-off defeat in five days.

The Astros narrowly avoided a sweep of their own, overcoming some fairly anemic offensive efforts all weekend that culminated in an extra-inning walk-off walk on Sunday.  The pitching has been characteristically excellent (except for some late-inning demons) and people besides George Springer have started to make significant offensive contributions: McCann, Gattis, Reddick, and Beltran are all starting to dig out of their collective funk from very early on.  The focus now shifts to the meat of the order as Bregman, Altuve, Correa, and Gurriel are a collective .180/.217/.220 with 2 RBI, 4 BB, and 17 K.  This will obviously not continue over 162 games, but it does need to turn around pretty soon.

Schedule/Pitching Probables

Monday, April 10 – 4:10pm CDT
Charlie Morton (0-0, 3.00) vs. James Paxton (0-0, 0.00)

It’s easy to forget this was the matchup that started last week’s 13-inning game.  Paxton pitched six innings of shutout ball only to have his bullpen cough up the lead.  Morton pitched six solid innings himself, dogged only by a 2-run homer.  This game starts early enough that another extra-inning effort won’t keep people up too late.

Tuesday, April 11 – 9:10pm CDT
Joe Musgrove (0-0, 3.60) vs. Ariel Miranda (0-0, 3.60)

Here’s another repeat matchup, this time from Thursday’s game when the M’s got over the hump and spoiled a four-game sweep.  Both pitchers had nearly identical stat lines for the game: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB; Musgrove allowed more walks (4 vs. 2), Miranda gave up more taters (2 vs. 1).

Wednesday, April 12 – 9:10pm CDT
Mike Fiers (0-1, 1.50) vs. Yovani Gallardo (0-1, 5.40)

Gallardo is the only Seattle starter Houston has not yet faced this season.  He gave up three runs on eight hits in his five-plus innings against the Angels last Friday.  Correa, Reddick, and Springer have all hit him well, and the Astros beat him in his only start against them in 2016.

Fiers was let down by his offense (no run support) and defense (run scoring on catcher’s interference) in his six innings facing the Royals on Friday.  He was 1-0 with a 5.02 ERA in three starts against the Mariners in 2016.

ROYALS AT ASTROS

April 7-9, 2017

OK, we got the Opening Day jitters out of the way. It’s time to get down to the long, slow business of grinding the rest of the American League into dust. Why not get a little revenge while we’re at it?

I use “revenge” loosely, of course. I’m not aware of anything eminently hate-worthy about the Royals. Blowing game 4 was much more about the Astros’ own mistakes than the ways in which the Royals took advantage of them.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE LAST SERIES?

Astros

It was a good start; four-game sweeps aren’t easy. We’re on pace for 120+ wins, and that ain’t no thang. As an added bonus, for the first time this millennium, both the radio and TV broadcasts are good!

Thank you to our “sponsor”

In early overreactions:

• George Springer will win the MVP unanimously, as he currently leads the AL in HR, RBI, and Win Probability Added, is second in WAR, and… um, dead last in baserunning.
• Dallas Keuchel is BACK, and so is LMJ.
• Jose Altuve believes his own hype and will be the worst hitter in the lineup all season.

Royals

The Royals found themselves on the wrong end of a 3-game sweep at the hands of the mighty Minnesota Twins, which is pretty low on the list of ways you would want to start your season. Even worse, their formerly unhittable bullpen gave up 14 runs in those 3 games, turning close contests into blowouts.

GAMES AND PROBABLES

Friday, April 7 – 7:10 pm CDT

Jason Vargas vs. Mike Fiers

Vargas underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015 and spent most of 2016 rehabilitating, making 3 September starts in his return. He has given up a .269 BA (14 for 52) against current Astros, including notables Jose Altuve (5 for 11) and Josh Reddick (6 for 30, 1 HR).

Fiers will look to rebound from 2016 and show that, whenever McHugh ultimately returns, he should keep his rotation spot. Unfortunately, the Royals are not the ideal crew for that – Fiers has given up a .327 clip (16 for 49) to current Royals; Cain, Escobar, and Hosmer have all hit him hard, and only Salvador Perez (0 for 8) has struggled against him.

Saturday, April 8 – 7:10 pm CDT

Danny Duffy (0-0, 1.50) vs. Dallas Keuchel (1-0, 0.00)

Duffy had a strong start against the Twins, giving up only 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings with 8 strikeouts. He has struggled against current Astros, giving up a .350 BA (21 for 60). Look for damage from Altuve (6 for 11, 2 2b) and Springer (3 for 6, 2 HR) and avert your eyes for Correa and Reddick (1 for 7 each).

Early season overreactions aside, Keuchel looked much better in the opener, keeping the ball down effectively. Current Royals have a .286 BA (36 for 126) against Keuchel, led by Cain (6 for 18, 2 HR) and Escobar (8 for 23, 1 HR). Keuchel will look forward to Moustakas (1 for 8, 7 groundouts, all to the right side) and Alex Gordon (1 for 10, 6 strikeouts).

Sunday, April 9 – 1:10 CDT

Nate Karns (0-0, 54.00) vs. Lance McCullers (1-0, 1.50)

The good news for Karns: he got two strikeouts. The bad news: Those were the only outs of his start – he walked two, gave up two, left the game, they all scored. Karns has had success against the Astros, only giving up a .224 BA (17 for 76). Reddick has had moderate success (3 for 8, 1 HR) but look out for Springer (1 for 7), Correa (2 for 12), and Beltran (2 for 12, 5 K)

McCullers managed his first start well, getting ahead of hitters and only giving up 1 run over 6 innings. (Let’s see if we can go 7, ok? Stretch goals.) LMJ has two career starts against the Royals – 1 regular season, and one playoff; the first was a 7 inning, 1 run performance, and the playoff game… well, McCullers sparkled with a 6 1/3 inning, 2 run, 2 hit effort. I don’t remember anything that happened after that, and you can’t make me.

Current Royals have only gone 5 for 30 against McCullers, with Perez (2 for 5) the only player to manage multiple hits against him.

CLOSING THOUGHT

It was pointed out to me yesterday that “Giles” spelled backwards is “Selig”.

I now feel the need to walk through Minute Maid Park with a large bell, yelling “UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!”