Discussing the relationship between money and success in baseball provokes strong reactions.
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Crystal Ball
Baseball statistics measure performance, not ability. Performance obviously results in part from ability, but baseball statistics also reflect randomness, or luck. A player might bat .310 one season and .290 the next without any appreciable decline in ability. In 600 at-bats, the difference between .310 and .290 is 12 hits, one every 50 at-bats or about every two weeks. Clearly chance alone might explain such a small discrepancy.
The Fallacies of Fanning
Last season the Brewers shattered the major-league club record by striking out 1,399 times, eclipsing the mark of 1,268 set by the 1996 Tigers. As power-hitting has come to dominate the game, increasingly more players are swinging for the fences with whip-handled bats that generate tremendous speed over the plate. Coupled with changes to the strike zone in 2001, the result for the Brewers was lots of home runs and lots of strikeouts.
Defensive Decision
Was Ozzie Smith’s first-ballot election to the Hall of Fame another instance of that institution’s supposedly declining standards? After all, inductee Red Ruffing had a better career batting average and more career home runs than Smith, and Ruffing was a pitcher.
Youth Movement
Statistical analysts claim that baseball players tend to peak between the ages of 26 and 32. If that finding is accurate, then Astros fans have reason to be optimistic about the next few seasons. Aside from a pair of future Hall of Famers and a veteran catcher renown for his defense, the Astros have a prospective line-up entering its prime. Ages are as of opening day 2002:
Pos Player Age --------------------- C Ausmus 32 1B Bagwell 33 2B Biggio 36 3B Ensberg 26 SS Everett 25 LF Ward 26 CF Hidalgo 26 RF Berkman 26
Reading by the Hot Stove
Bill James became famous exposing readers to a world of new statistics in his Baseball Abstracts of the ’70s and ’80s. Although his name remains synonymous with sabermetrics — “the study and mathematical analysis of baseball statistics and records,” according to the Dickson Baseball Dictionary — James’ latest work, the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, has much to offer the statistically disinclined.