Was Ozzie Smith’s first-ballot election to the Hall of Fame another instance of that institution’s supposedly declining standards? After all, inductee Red Ruffing had a better career batting average and more career home runs than Smith, and Ruffing was a pitcher.
Although Smith wasn’t the Rey Ordonez of his day, offensively, his Hall of Fame credentials are suspect. Smith was an average hitter for his time, slightly above-average for a shortstop. Here’s how his batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, and on-base plus slugging stack up to the league average and average shortstop over his career:
Player Avg OBP Slg OPS ----------------------------------------- Smith .262 .337 .328 .666 League Average .264 .330 .340 .670 Average Shortstop .249 .306 .305 .611
Adjusted for his home ballparks, Smith was about 1 percent better than the league-average OPS and about 7 percent better than the average-shortstop OPS.
There are scores of shortstops in baseball history who’ve done better, and the vast majority of them aren’t in the Hall of Fame. Indeed, ranked among Hall of Fame shortstops, Smith’s adjusted OPS is well toward the bottom of the pack:
Player Career AOPS ----------------------------------- Honus Wagner 1897-1917 160 Arky Vaughan 1932-1948 149 Ernie Banks 1953-1971 143 Lou Boudreau 1938-1952 135 Robin Yount 1974-1993 133 Joe Cronin 1926-1945 133 George Davis 1890-1909 131 Hughie Jennings 1891-1918 127 Luke Appling 1930-1950 126 Joe Sewell 1920-1933 119 Travis Jackson 1922-1936 115 Pee Wee Reese 1940-1958 113 Bobby Wallace 1894-1918 113 Dave Bancroft 1915-1930 107 Phil Rizzuto 1941-1956 107 Joe Tinker 1902-1916 103 Monte Ward 1878-1894 102 Ozzie Smith 1978-1996 101 Luis Aparicio 1956-1973 98 Rabbit Maranville 1912-1935 91
Smith ranks merely 79th in adjusted OPS among the 170 shortstops with at least 3,000 career plate appearances. Relative to the league average, Smith’s career OBP ranks 49th and his career slugging average ranks 112th among shortstops.
To his offensive credit, Smith was an excellent baserunner. His 580 stolen bases are fifth among shortstops and 20th on the all-time list. His success rate of 80 percent is second among shortstops, behind only Barry Larkin, and 18th on the all-time list among players with at least 250 attempts.
During his peak, from 1984 to 1989, Smith created an estimated 52 more runs than the average National Leaguer and 147 more runs than the average shortstop. From 1984 to 1992, he created an estimated 74 more runs than the average National Leaguer and 202 more runs than the average shortstop. He wasn’t a negative in the line-up.
Indeed, here’s an idea of how Smith’s numbers in his peak six seasons might look if he’d played them in the late ’90s, when runs per game were about 14 percent higher than in the late ’80s:
Avg OBP Slg OPS 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO SB CS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Actual .278 .360 .353 .713 26 4 2 76 55 70 31 38 8 Projected .290 .379 .394 .773 30 4 3 87 63 74 36 29 6
This isn’t to say that Smith was ever feared at the plate, but he was good at getting on base, seldom struck out, stole lots of bases, and hit more than a few doubles. Those offensive numbers might get him on the National League All-Star team these days, even ignoring his glove.
But Smith’s glove is impossible to ignore. Besides the backflips and other acrobatics, Smith’s defensive statistics are quite simply the best of any shortstop in history. Smith led the league in putouts twice, assists eight times, double plays five times, fielding percentage eight times, and successful chances per game, also known as range factor, seven times. No other Hall of Fame shortstop comes close to having led the league in fielding categories so many times.
In fact, the only player with defensive numbers comparable to Smith’s is Bill Mazeroski, who was elected to the Hall of Fame last year but wasn’t as good an offensive player and played a slightly less demanding position.
Smith’s fielding percentage was 12 points better, and his range factor was almost half a play per game better than the average shortstop over his career. Put another way, in his 2,511 games in the field, Smith made about 158 fewer errors and recorded about 1,105 more putouts plus assists than the average shortstop.
Total Baseball, by its fielding runs method, estimates that Smith saved the third-most runs of any shortstop in history:
Player FR ---------------------- Bill Dahlen 304 Jack Glasscock 245 Ozzie Smith 242 Joe Tinker 216 Dave Bancroft 198
Bill James, by his win shares method listed in his New Historical Baseball Abstract, ranks the top five defensive shortstops as follows:
Player WS ---------------------- Honus Wagner 144 Ozzie Smith 142 Bill Dahlen 141 Rabbit Maranville 141 Pee Wee Reese 110
For his efforts, Smith won 13 Gold Gloves. The only eligible players with 10 or more Gold Gloves not in the Hall of Fame are Jim Kaat and Keith Hernandez. Smith also made the All-Star team 15 times. No eligible player chosen to as many as 12 All-Star teams has failed to make the Hall of Fame. Like it or not, those are Hall of Fame credentials.
While there are hundreds of players in baseball history with a higher batting average and more home runs than Smith, only a handful of them saved more runs or won more games with the leather. Smith’s fielding dominance was real, not just a figment of SportsCenter highlight reels or an inflated reputation in the minds of baseball writers. That may not be enough to justify his election to Cooperstown, but it shouldn’t be overlooked in examining the issue.
Omission
Here are the statistics, per 150 games, of two players who played the same position, more or less contemporaneously, one in the American League, one in the National League:
Player Avg OBP Slg OPS 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO ------------------------------------------------------------- American .269 .341 .457 .797 25 3 23 77 80 51 83 National .262 .335 .439 .773 24 2 21 67 80 55 65
Mr. American played in home parks that inflated offense by about 4 percent. Mr. National played in home parks that deflated offensive by about 1 percent. When you take that into account, Mr. American has an adjusted OPS about 34 percent better than league average, and Mr. National has an adjusted OPS about 33 percent better than league average.
Mr. American is estimated to have created about 5.69 runs per 27 outs. Mr. National is estimated to have created about 5.68 runs per 27 outs.
Both players made the All-Star team 11 times. Mr. American won one Gold Glove and three Silver Sluggers and made The Sporting News All-Star team fives times. Mr. National won three Gold Gloves and five Silver Sluggers and made The Sporting News All-Star team six times.
Mr. American played 203 more games than Mr. National, although it took Mr. American five more seasons to do so. Mr. American played longer and was more effective in his old age, but Mr. National was more durable and consistent at his peak.
Most important, Mr. American received two thirds of the vote his first time on the Hall of Fame ballot, against extremely tough competition, and was elected on his second chance. Mr. National achieved only 42 percent of the vote his first time on the ballot and, in 2002, failed to be elected for the fifth straight season, placing second in the voting and falling just 11 ballots shy.
Mr. American is, of course, Carlton Fisk, and Mr. National is, obviously, Gary Carter. Carter will make it to Cooperstown eventually, but what the writers are waiting for is a mystery.