contributed by NeilT
When the Astros play the A’s, it always makes me think of their manager, Mr. Bean, and his transformative use of statistics. No one except the Red Sox Senior Advisor on Baseball Operations, Bill James, has so changed the game with numbers, and James’s lectures on religious experience can get a bit long-winded.
Of course as you know, I myself am a statistics god, and I wanted to explain to you why it was certain that this season the Astros would win 93 games. You thought my pick for the Race for the Lid was just bullshit, but no: it was the result of careful statistical analysis. My pick is a certainty.
To begin with, a team doesn’t win 93 games by chance. It’s statistically possible, but it’s unlikely—in statistical parlance, not probable—that a team would win 93 games by chance. It would be real lucky for your team, and real unlucky for the other teams, and that would be mighty unlikely. Sorry, not probable. Unprobable?
We start from 2013’s 51-111.
OPS
Do you remember a single argument on the Talk Zone last season about the value of OPS? There had been at least one Talk Zone kerfuffle per season about OPS since the internet was invented. Last year there was none. Why? Because none of the Astros players had an OPS. You can see this in last season’s batting statistics for the following five randomly chosen players: Brad Peacock, Paul Clemens, Bret Oberholtzer, Josh Fields, and Jared Cosart.
This absence was a conscious decision on the part of Astros management. They didn’t expect the Astros to win, and it was not probable—nonprobable?—that the purchase of expensive OPSs would have changed the season in a meaningful way.
This season Owner Crane has promised to purchase OPSs for at least the top five hitters in the lineup, and I’ll be happy to see at least some players with OPSs, because it significantly improves the game.
Purchasing OPSs will add 10.26 wins (rounding to the nearest 100th) to the Astros wins. 61.26-100.74.
Mike Fast
Having Mike Fast as a veteran analytical presence will bring stability and innovation to the front office. 6.45 wins.
Sexual Preening
Last season the Astros only had one Ladies Night. Many commentators jeered at Ladies Night as out of touch with modern notions of gender and sexual roles, but it was actually a brilliant strategy that capitalized on the delicate and complicated psyches of young males to produce more wins.
As you may be aware, everyone on the Astros roster is male, and not just any kind of males, but young males. I’m not sure how they get away with these ageist and sexist hiring practices, but of course I stay away from political commentary in recaps. The statistically important thing is that a male’s most productive years are at the height of his sexual drive, between the ages of 18 and 32. During those years males will do their best, most innovative work. Theory of relativity? Young male. Cubism? Young males. DNA was invented by young males.
The Beatles? Every one of them was a young male.
Statistically, young males between 18 and 32 are 32.l375% more creative than at any other time in their lives. Why? Girls. By scheduling at least one Ladies Night—note, by the way, the etymological relationship between “ladies” and “laid”—for each remaining home series, the Astros are significantly increasing the number of objects of sexual desire in the stadium for their players, thereby making it significantly more probable that the players will do their best work, thereby making it much less probable that the Astros will lose. Last season, the Astros’ home record was 24-57 over 25 home series, for a losing percentage of 70.37%. The team will add 21 Ladies Nights in 2014. They will pick up 8.04 games through the increased number of Ladies Nights. 75.76-86.24.
More inprobable?
Please note that I have considered the effect of gay players in this discussion, but have dismissed its relevance. No major league baseball player was ever gay. Or lesbian. And if they were transvestites they were straight transvestites.
The Astros are also considering featuring the kiss cam between every inning, and I encourage them to do so. Get those boys hot and bothered.
Television and Ridicule
More players will actually have been on the major league team and in Houston long enough to get cable tv, thereby allowing them to watch games. The jeering drone of Alan Ashby will so embarrass them that they will try harder, making it antiprobable that they will lose. 4.39 games.
Increased Payroll
Last year the Astros opened the season with a payroll of $26,000, guaranteeing Owner Crane profits of $99 million. This year’s team payroll is estimated at about $44,000. My bike mechanic says that for bicycles, you can lose about one pound for each $1000 spent, so for baseball you can estimate about one win per $1000 spent. 1.8 wins. 81.91-80.09.
Grorege Springer
They gave Geroge number 4 for a reason. 85.91-76.09.
Luck
It is often said that a team makes its own luck, but this is demonstrably false: luck goes to the lucky. Scientific studies show that 97.34 % of those who experience luck are in fact lucky. This is not mere happenstance, and it can be demonstrated thus: a similar percentage of those who experience bad luck are not lucky. Imlucky? Last year the Astros were apparently very imlucky, as demonstrated by William James’s Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball, which very fittingly has something to do with beans. This year the Astros will be lucky if they are lucky, and it all evens out in the end, so they will win 8.2528% more games just by luck (corrected by .07%). To put this differently, they have to get their share of the wins, which are known among us statistics gods as Win Shares.
It’s going to be a great season. Margin of error 3.67%, so don’t be surprised if they win 96.67 games. See you at the World Series.
***
I know, some of you are thinking “but NeilT, after a terrible week like this week past, aren’t you worried that the Astros won’t reach 51 wins, much less 93?” Obviously, you’re ignorant. Advanced statistical analysis like mine isn’t affected by what happens on the field. Tonight’s a perfect example. The Astros lost again, 11-3, with Cosart giving up 7 earned runs in the first inning. That’s good, ‘cause it was a West Coast game that didn’t start until 11:30 or so, so we could all go to bed early.
The As scored 1 more in the 2nd and 2 in the 5th off Clemens—Cosart only got through .1 innings. They scored their final run in the 7th off Valdes.
The Astros runs came in the top of the 5th, so the ten-run rule was never invoked. Villar, Altuve, and Fowler singled to start the inning, driving in Villar. Springer singled driving in Altuve. Karter drove in Fowler on a sac fly.
The batting order was shuffled a bit, with Altuve batting first, Fowler second, Springer fourth, and Kris Karter sixth. Karter had 3 SO. Everybody got to pitch.
Get that lid ready.
