Who Am I?

David Paulino

RHP

Age: 23

Height: 6′ 7″

Weight: 215

(Dear David: Please mix in a steak every now and then.)

Throws Right, Bats Right

How Did I Get Here?

Paulino was originally signed by Detroit in 2010 as an international free agent. He was later traded to Houston as the PTBNL, along with Danry Vasquez, in exchange for Jose Veras. (Getting a top-3 prospect for 20 innings of relief work has to go down as a pretty darn good deal for Houston.) Paulino was added to the 40-man roster after the 2015 season.

Contract status: Paulino has 2 option years remaining and will not be eligible for arbitration until 2020.

Why Am I Here?

Well, let’s define where “here” is. He’s on the 40-man roster because he’s a fantastic prospect and had to be protected from the Rule 5 draft, where he surely would have been lost. Because he had Tommy John surgery in mid-2013, prior to the trade to Houston, he lost all of his 2014 season – meaning he was not otherwise advanced through the minors. So Paulino is set for another season of seasoning.

What are my strengths?

Paulino is really tall. No, seriously. He’s 6′ 7″. Why is that a strength? Because when you’re that tall and can still throw in the mid-90s, you get a great downward angle on the fastball that results in lots of ground balls.

What are my weaknesses?

Paulino is still a one-trick pony; he has a curve and a change that could both be charitably called works in progress. The development of those pitches will define his future.

What is my future with the Astros?

The fastball is good enough that Paulino could still play a bullpen role if the other pitches never develop. If at least one of them does? You’re looking at a potential mid-rotation starter.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

Who else would I remind you of?

I see a young Michael Pineda; similar build, similar questions as to how the secondary stuff will play out.

Who Am I?

Joe Musgrove

RHP

Age: 24

Height: 6′ 5″

Weight: 265

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Musgrove was a supplemental first-rounder in 2011, drafted by Toronto. He was traded to Houston in the Great Houston-Toronto MegaDeal of 2012 (trademark pending) that included David Carpenter, JA Happ, Brandon Lyon, Kevin Comer, Asher Wojo.. wojo… ah forget it, we traded him already, David Rollins, Carlos Perez, Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, and a box of Rice-a-Roni. He was added to the 40-man roster after the 2015 season.

Contract status: Musgrove has two option years remaining and is not eligible for arbitration until 2020.

Why am I here?

Musgrove is competing with Mike Fiers for the fifth spot in the rotation, unless McHugh can’t start the season healthy. Given that Fiers is out of options, it’s an uphill battle for Musgrove. Personally, I’d rather bet on the youngster with the higher upside – you know what you’re getting from Fiers.

What are my strengths?

Plus-plus control. Musgrove’s 2.3 walks per 9 innings in the majors in 2016 was his highest at any level in his career. You’ll have to hit your way on against him. Musgrove also gets good movement on his pitches.

What are my weaknesses?

It does put things in perspective to say that a starter with a 92 MPH fastball doesn’t even have average velocity, but that’s where we are in 2017. And while Musgrove mixes his pitches effectively, he doesn’t have a go-to pitch. His slider has shown flashes, so maybe he can get some tips from the guys in the bullpen on how to improve it. Given that lack of a plus pitch, Musgrove becomes more reliant than most on keeping runners off the bases. With the bases empty, he held hitters to a .214/.275/.383 line; once there were men on base, that jumped to .317/.360/.585. That makes him a sort of feast-or-famine guy; in 10 starts, he gave up 8 runs once and 5 runs twice – but the other 7 starts were all 3 runs or less.

What is my future with the Astros?

Unless Musgrove comes up with that plus pitch, his ceiling is probably a #3 starter. On the other hand, his control keeps the floor pretty high. I’d expect to see him in the rotation for the remainder of the decade.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

Pinpoint accuracy, below average velocity, good movement: the ingredients of a pitcher that bedeviled the Astros for years. Yes, I think of Musgrove as a poor man’s Greg Maddux. As long as he’s a poor man’s version, and not a homeless man’s version, then he’ll be a valuable contributor for the good guys.

Who Am I?

Charlie Morton

RHP

Age: 33

Height: 6′ 5″

Weight: 235

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Morton was drafted out of high school in 2006 by the Braves, in the third round. He was traded by the Braves in 2009 to the Pirates for Nate McLouth, and then traded by the Pirates to the Phillies after the 2015 season for minor leaguer David Whitehead. After missing almost all of 2016 with a hamstring injury, he signed with Houston in the offseason as a free agent.

Contract status: Morton signed a 2 year, $14M contract that has “boom or bust” written all over it.

Why am I here?

Well, let’s dig into that question. On the surface, it seems pretty simple: Morton fills the Doug Fister “veteran 4th or 5th starter” from last season. But it looks like Ground Control sees more upside than that. FanGraphs has spent some time on this here and here, but the short version is this:

Morton is the rare 33-year old who seems to be gaining velocity. From those indicated FanGraphs articles:

Assuming we’re ruling out any Andy Pettitte types of healing, then we’re looking at a pitcher who is trying to reinvent himself relatively late in his career. If he can succeed in that, he might provide something greater than “4th or 5th starter” performances.

What are my strengths?

Morton lives off the curve. In terms of spin rate, it’s comparable to Strasburg’s, and even a little tighter than McCullers’. (That’s purely spin rate. I’ll need a lot of convincing before I put that pitch in league with LMJ’s curve.) With the curve, he can induce a lot of ground balls.

What are my weaknesses?

I wouldn’t say that Morton has any other plus pitch. He’s flashed a good splitter but not displayed consistency with it.

More than that, Morton’s problem is that staying healthy is a skill. It’s a skill he doesn’t appear to possess. Morton’s Baseball Prospectus page lists injuries to the following:

• shoulder (three times)
• abdomen
• thigh
• hip (twice)
• elbow
• foot

… and that stops in 2014, so doesn’t even reflect the hamstring that derailed his 2016 season.

If he gets to 100 innings this season, it’s a pleasant surprise.

What is my future with the Astros?

I wouldn’t see much of one beyond that two year deal.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

The recently departed Scott Feldman.

Who Am I?

Lance McCullers, Jr.

RHP

Age: 23

Height: 6′ 1″

Weight: 205

Throws right, Bats left

WAIT A MINUTE. A right-handed pitcher batting lefty?

How did I get here?

Houston drafted Lance in the supplemental first round (41st overall) in 2012. (That pick was compensation for losing Clint Barmes to free agency, which may be the best value received on a compensation pick vs. value “lost” in team history.) McCullers was originally called up in May 2015.

Contract status: Not eligible for arbitration until 2019.

Why am I here?

LMJ is your clear-cut #2 in the rotation heading into 2017. If he stays healthy, he might be #1. He’s that good.

What are my strengths?

The prettiest curveball you’ve seen since the days of Darryl Kile. Hitters were only .167 against it in 2015, and dropped to .140 in 2016.

Oh, and he can throw his fastball up around 97 if that helps.

What are my weaknesses?

That fastball comes in fast. It goes out fast, too – hitters pounded LMJ for a .443 average and .598 SLG in 2016. Results of his rarely-used change up were even worse. (Avert your eyes if you have a weak stomach – he gave up a .958 SLG on the change last year.)

More than this, McCullers walks a lot of batters. And strikes out a lot of batters. And runs high counts on all the other batters. In other words, he runs a really high pitch count – which limits his endurance. In 36 career starts, he’s made it to the 8th inning twice. He made it to the 7th inning only 12 times. And it’s not like he’s struggling on the second trip through the lineup – his career ERA in innings 1-3 is 4.27; in innings 4-6, it is 2.16.

If this kid starts listening to Crash Davis, the sky’s the limit.

What is my future with the Astros?

I am firmly convinced that Lance McCullers is the ace of this staff going forward. That future may be now. If Keuchel is holding down the ace role while LMJ is healthy… things will look very, very good indeed.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

(Note #1: McCullers’ 2015 ERA was 3.22. His 2016 ERA was 3.22. His career ERA is 3.22. I feel that predicting a 3.22 ERA may be my safest WAG of this series.)

(Note #2: McCullers gave up a whopping .383 batting average on balls in play in 2016. That’s the type of bad luck that will NOT repeat itself.)

Well, we’ve mentioned Darryl Kile. But if I look outside the Astros? Mark Prior.

I can only pray LMJ stays healthier.

Who Am I?

Dallas Keuchel

LHP

Age: 29

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 205

Throws left, Bats left

How did I get here?

Drafted in the 7th round by Houston in 2009. Called up in 2012.

Contract status: Keuchel avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 1 year, $9.15M contract for 2017. He has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining, then can become a free agent after the 2018 season.

Why am I here?

I don’t want to put too fine a point on this, but Houston’s 2017 season pretty much ride’s on Keuchel’s left arm. If he’s the pitcher he was in 2016, the Astros could still battle for a wild card spot, and then pray that McCullers or some pitcher yet to be determined can get them through the wild card game.

But if he’s the pitcher he was in 2014 and 2015 – a clear ace? Buckle up, folks – it’s going to be one hell of a ride.

What are my strengths?

The Astros have plenty of guys who could throw the ball through a door. Giles, Feliz, McCullers – and Martes waiting in the wings. Dallas Keuchel of 2014 and 2015 is another guy who could throw the ball through the door.

He’d just fit it through the keyhole.

For two years, Keuchel absolutely painted the edge of the plate – just on and just off. Keuchel could then choose from the sinker or the slider to put the hitter away.

Oh, and he fields his position better than any Astro pitcher not named Mike Hampton.

What are my weaknesses?

Keuchel’s fastball and curve went from “show-me” pitches in 2014-15 to “hit-me” last season, and batters seemed to be sitting on the sinker – after giving up only a .302 SLG on sinkers in 2015, he jumped to a .486 SLG in 2016.

What is my future with the Astros?

There are two clear paths here.

On one road, Keuchel bounces back in 2017, leads the Astros on a deep playoff run, and Jim Crane writes his first big extension check before Dallas becomes a free agent.

The other road… the other road is the Keuchel of 2016. One that shows that it wasn’t pitching hurt, it was that the league figured him out. And now the Astros putative ace heads into 2018 with no extension, a possible trade, and people wondering if a window is already closing.

So as I said before… there’s more than a little bit riding on Keuchel’s left arm in 2017.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

The fielding reminds me of Mike Hampton, but nothing else about them is similar. I’m going with Barry Zito. Now we find out if Keuchel is still capturing Zito’s Oakland years, or if he’s turning into the version across the bay.

Who Am I?

James Hoyt

RHP

Age: 30

Height: 6′ 6″

Weight: 230

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Well, he started out working on sailboats in San Diego. (Seriously). Then he tried out for the Yuma Scorpions in 2011, and was coached by coaching legend Jose Canseco. You may not believe this, but Yuma folded after 2011. I’m sure it wasn’t Jose’s fault. He played for a couple more independent teams in 2012, and caught on with Tabasco in the Mexican League in 2012, which likely added some fire to his heater. He was signed by the Braves as a free agent in November 2012, then dealt to Houston along with Evan Gattis in exchange for Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, and Andrew Thurman in January 2015. He was added to the 40-man roster in August 2016.

Contract status: You may not believe this after that last paragraph, but he’s making the league minimum. 2 option years remaining.

Why am I here?

Worst case scenario: he’s bouncing up and down from AAA as injuries in the bullpen dictate.

Best case scenario: opposing hitters are facing a wipeout slider second only to Giles… in the sixth inning.

What are my strengths?

First, let me refresh you, Dear Reader, on what I said about Ken Giles earlier this week:

With all due respect to Billy Wagner and Brad Lidge, Giles possesses potentially the best out pitch of any Astro reliever. Giles threw the slider 529 times last year, recording 181 swing-and-misses vs. only 12 hits. Hitters had a .093 average and .186 SLG against the slider. It became a very simple process: if Giles got ahead in the count, the at-bat was over. Hitters went .157/.164/.276 once behind in the count against Giles.

Dear Reader, I’d like to introduce you to Ken Giles’ older brother. In his 22 major league innings, Hoyt thew his slider more than his fastball, 204 to 143. He gave up a .149 average and .298 SLG against the slider. But it was a good enough weapon that once he was ahead in the count, hitters went only .129/.129/.226.

What are my weaknesses?

What else did I say about Giles?

When the batter got ahead in the count, they went .362/.581/.723 against Giles. Essentially, if you could get ball one, you turned into Barry Bonds against him.

Small sample size warning, but… 33 batters got ahead of Hoyt. They went .348/.515/.957.

Yes, .957.

You see, Dear Reader, Hoyt has a good fastball – he’ll hit 94 or 95 – but it certainly isn’t Giles’ fastball. So if hitters are spitting on that slider and taking their chances with a 100 MPH heater, well, I leave it to the reader’s imagination what they’ll do sitting dead red on 94 MPH.

What is my future with the Astros?

Look, the man went from the Yuma Scorpions to the Houston Astros in 5 years. Betting against him seems folly. Everything from his past few seasons in the minors to the advanced projection systems says he’s going to be a good one.

I just can’t shake the feeling that Cinderella’s coach is about to turn back into a pumpkin.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

Who else would I remind you of?

Jimmy Morris.