Who Am I?
Lance McCullers, Jr.
RHP
Age: 23
Height: 6′ 1″
Weight: 205
Throws right, Bats left
WAIT A MINUTE. A right-handed pitcher batting lefty?
How did I get here?
Houston drafted Lance in the supplemental first round (41st overall) in 2012. (That pick was compensation for losing Clint Barmes to free agency, which may be the best value received on a compensation pick vs. value “lost” in team history.) McCullers was originally called up in May 2015.
Contract status: Not eligible for arbitration until 2019.
Why am I here?
LMJ is your clear-cut #2 in the rotation heading into 2017. If he stays healthy, he might be #1. He’s that good.
What are my strengths?
The prettiest curveball you’ve seen since the days of Darryl Kile. Hitters were only .167 against it in 2015, and dropped to .140 in 2016.
Oh, and he can throw his fastball up around 97 if that helps.
What are my weaknesses?
That fastball comes in fast. It goes out fast, too – hitters pounded LMJ for a .443 average and .598 SLG in 2016. Results of his rarely-used change up were even worse. (Avert your eyes if you have a weak stomach – he gave up a .958 SLG on the change last year.)
More than this, McCullers walks a lot of batters. And strikes out a lot of batters. And runs high counts on all the other batters. In other words, he runs a really high pitch count – which limits his endurance. In 36 career starts, he’s made it to the 8th inning twice. He made it to the 7th inning only 12 times. And it’s not like he’s struggling on the second trip through the lineup – his career ERA in innings 1-3 is 4.27; in innings 4-6, it is 2.16.
If this kid starts listening to Crash Davis, the sky’s the limit.
What is my future with the Astros?
I am firmly convinced that Lance McCullers is the ace of this staff going forward. That future may be now. If Keuchel is holding down the ace role while LMJ is healthy… things will look very, very good indeed.
What is my projected 2017 performance?
(Note #1: McCullers’ 2015 ERA was 3.22. His 2016 ERA was 3.22. His career ERA is 3.22. I feel that predicting a 3.22 ERA may be my safest WAG of this series.)
(Note #2: McCullers gave up a whopping .383 batting average on balls in play in 2016. That’s the type of bad luck that will NOT repeat itself.)
Well, we’ve mentioned Darryl Kile. But if I look outside the Astros? Mark Prior.
I can only pray LMJ stays healthier.