40 for 40 Presents: Michael Feliz

Posted on February 25, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

Michael Feliz

RHP

Age: 23

Height: 6′ 4″

Weight: 230

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Signed by the Astros as an international free agent in 2010, after his original contract with Oakland was voided.

Contract status: not arbitration eligible until 2019

Why am I here?

The hope, as Feliz came up through the minors, was that he would emerge as a frontline starter. At this point, he looks like a late inning reliever. His 2017 role will be somewhat similar to Devenski’s, but with a greater emphasis on short appearances where a strikeout is needed.

What are my strengths?

Feliz is a 2-pitch pitcher, but those 2 pitches are plus. His fastball routinely sits at 98, and his slider has been a revelation – he allowed only a .165 batting average off the slider last year. He’s big, sturdy, has a repeatable motion – basically, your classic flamethrower stuff.

What are my weaknesses?

First and foremost – a lack of control. This is evidenced not so much by walks – 22 in 65 IP isn’t atrocious, even if hardly the stuff of shutdown closers. No, the problem is that he too frequently leaves the ball up in the zone. A full 30% of his pitches were up in the zone, and while he could get away with it against righties with his velocity, left handed hitters absolutely crushed those balls, which led to those 10 home runs.

Apart from that? The lack of a third pitch means he has no realistic road to the rotation.

What is my future with the Astros?

It’s easy to see Feliz forming a late-game hammer combo with Giles. It’s also easy to see him failing to master his control struggles and never becoming more than an average middle reliever. His velocity will keep him around for quite a while.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

	WINS	LOSSES	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
2016	8	1	65	55	10	22	95	4.43	1.18
PECOTA	3	2	57.7	49	6	23	63	3.52	1.26
ZIPS			88.3	83	12	34	99	4.38	1.33
MMWAG	5	4	78	77	8	25	100	3.75	1.31

Who else would I remind you of?

God, I hate saying it, because I genuinely want Feliz to succeed. But I get more than a whiff of Kyle Farnsworth from him.

40 for 40 Presents: Chris Devenski

Posted on February 24, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

Chris Devenski

RHP

Age: 26

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 210

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Originally drafted in the 25th round of the 2011 draft by the White Sox. Sent to Houston on August 3, 2012 as the player to be named later in addition to Matt Heidenreich and Blair Walters for Brett Myers.

Contract status: not eligible for arbitration until 2019

Why am I here?

Chris Devenski may single-handedly resurrect the role of the swingman. If that’s not too much pressure to put on a guy with one year of experience. He can give you multiple innings from the pen, he can give you a spot start when you need it, he can put out a late inning fire. By the end of 2017, Chris Devenski Facts may replace Chuck Norris Facts.

What are my strengths?

Devo has a wicked, wicked change up. In 2016, he threw 498 changeups total, allowing only 29 hits off it, and only a .240 SLG against the pitch. When he keeps hitters off balance – and that pitch allows him to – they rarely square up. His slider is an effective third pitch, especially when thrown low and away to right handed hitters late in the count.

What are my weaknesses?

His fastball is league-average at best. Even another tick or two on it would allow him to further separate from that change, or maintain his velocity enough to become an effective starter.

What is my future with the Astros?

Bullpen mainstay for years to come… UNLESS a rotation injury gives him a shot that he just doesn’t relinquish. I don’t see that happening; he doesn’t quite have the heat for that third trip through the lineup, and he gives so much value in the swingman role I don’t think AJ will give that up easily.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

	WINS	LOSSES	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
2016	4	4	108.1	79	4	20	104	2.16	0.91
PECOTA	5	4	82	78	8	24	75	3.47	1.25
ZIPS			76.2	70	9	19	77	3.29	1.16
MMWAG	6	3	101	90	5	21	90	2.89	1.00

Who else would I remind you of?

How about Ramiro Mendoza on those late-90s Yankees teams? Not quite a starter, not quite a closer… but put him in that swingman spot?

Parting thoughts

Hypotheticals can be fun when they’re removed from reality:

If you had three wishes, what would you wish for?
Which of the Friends would you actually want a relationship with?
Who would win a fight, Batman or Superman? (Wait… that was always a dumb question. And and even dumber movie.)

But the hypotheticals that are more “what if” in nature – what historians call “counterfactuals” – those typically have an element of pain:

What if JFK had survived, and pulled the US out of Vietnam?
What if the Rockets had accepted Portland’s trade offer of Clyde Drexler and the #2 overall pick for Ralph Sampson… thus putting Hakeem, Clyde, and Michael Jordan on the same team?
What if the Astros had listened to their scouts and selected Derek Jeter instead of Phil Nevin?

Well, looking back on Devenski’s performance last year brought one more of the latter to mind, and I just can’t quite shake it:

What if the 2015 Astros had that version of Chris Devenski in the bullpen?

Welcome to OWA: 40 for 40

Posted on February 22, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Howdy, Astros faithful. And even the faithless – welcome.

2017 sets up as a big year. I say that figuratively, because surely nobody has jinxed this by making any premature predic…

… furk.

Well – big, empty predictions deserve big, empty gestures. Which is all a way of saying:

Welcome to OWA: 40 for 40.

40 for 40?

You’ve heard of this thing, “30 for 30”?

Yeah, the acclaimed ESPN documentary series.

Yeah, this is going to blow that right out of the water. Listen to this: 40… for… 40.

Right, yes, I think I see where this is going.

Think about it, man. You log onto the Internet, you see “30 for 30” sitting there, and there’s “40 for 40” sitting, well, not right beside it, but in some similar sort of place.

40’s the key number here. 40 days, 40 nights. The 40/40 club. And, of course: the 40 man roster.

That’s right, intrepid reader, over the 40 days between now and Opening Day, you’re getting a preview of every player on the Astros’ 40 man roster.

What sort of value you will you, a novice writer with no experience in organized baseball, bring to me, an insanely passionate Astros fan paying absolutely nothing for this content?

Only in the (soon to be) acclaimed “OWA: 40 for 40” series will you get the answers to burning questions for every Astros player such as:

Who am I?
Why am I here?
How did I get here?
What are my strengths and weaknesses?
What is my future with the Astros?
What is my projected 2017 performance?

In this last category, you’ll see all the great projection systems:

PECOTA, by Baseball Prospectus
ZIPS, by FanGraphs
MMWAG, by MusicMan’s Wild Ass Guesses

So bring in all of your favorite animals, male and female, because we’re setting sail for the next 40 days to see just what kind of club Mission Control has assembled.

The Beginner’s Guide to the 2015 Houston Astros

Posted on May 6, 2015 by MusicMan in Columnistas, From Left Field, Original

The Big Picture:
Crane & Luhnow expected this team to play .500 ball. There was a clear message that they needed to improve on last year’s 70-92 record, and while they were aiming for .500, most preseason projections had them around 77 wins, and either last or next to last in the division. (The AL West was expected to be very competitive.) The offense is big on homers, and even bigger on strikeouts. The bullpen was atrocious the last several years, and that was where the free agent dollars were mostly spent. The starting rotation involves two guys that they’re praying weren’t flukes last year, an overpaid veteran, and a bunch of question marks.

So far, the offense is even better than projected, because (a) the power is there, (b) they’re drawing a ton of walks, and (c) they lead the league in steals, too. The bullpen has been awesome – they are 18-1 when they have a lead at any point in the game. The rotation is holding together, with those two at the top showing they were no fluke.

The Starting Lineup:
2B – Jose Altuve: Signed out of Venezuela as an amateur. Never considered much of a prospect because of his size. All he did was lead the league in batting average last year, set the team record for hits, and win the Silver Slugger for 2b. He’s started off this year hitting about .350 and showing a little more home run power (3 already).

3B – Luis Valbuena: Acquired via trade from the Cubs this offseason. Average defensively, projected to be about a .260/20 HR guy. So far only hitting .200, but tied for the team lead with 6 HR.

RF – George Springer: Former first-round pick by the Astros. 30 HR/30 SB potential. Also has the potential to strike out 150 times. Will never hit for big average, but draws walks well has hits the ball hard. Excellent in RF – he could probably play CF for many teams. So far only hitting .200, but with enough walks to have his OBP around .320.

DH – Evan Gattis: Acquired via trade from the Braves this offseason. Late bloomer – 28(?) years old but only in his third season. Former catcher turned outfielder, but DH is really his best position – he’s terrible anywhere in the field. If he stays healthy (which he never did with the Braves), could easily top 30 HR, and maybe reach 40. Currently tied for the team lead with 6 HR. Had a terrible start (like 0-22 with 12 K) but has gotten hot since then.

1B – Chris Carter: Complete feast-or-famine guy. Had a two-month stretch last year where he was the best hitter in the league. Around that, has been a human windmill at the plate. Also a potential 30-HR guy, but if he plays the full season, he could potentially strike out 200 times. Has looked lost at the plate this year, only hitting .150.

LF – Colby Rasmus: Signed as a free agent from Toronto on a 1 year deal after a down season last year. Originally a first-round pick by Luhnow with the Cardinals. Has been a CF his whole career until this year, clearly an above-average LF. Moves to CF if Marisnick sits. Another high-HR, high-K guy in the lineup.

SS – Marwin Gonzalez: Only a placeholder until (a) Jed Lowrie comes off the DL in July, or (b) Carlos Correa gets called up. Decent utility guy, but not who you want starting.

C – Jason Castro: Former Astros first-round pick. Big for a catcher. Hit really well in 2013, not at all in 2014; made big improvements defensively in 2014, now grades out as above-average in pitch framing and throwing out runners. Needs to start hitting if he is to remain the catcher of the future.

CF – Jake Marisnick: Biggest surprise of the season so far. Acquired from the Marlins last year, former first-round pick (notice a trend here?) Gold Glove-caliber CF. Expected to be a .250/10 HR type hitter with good speed. Currently hitting almost .400 with 4 HR, and tied for the AL lead (with Altuve and Springer) with 10 SB. If he can even hit .300, he’s locked in for the foreseeable future as our CF.

The bench:
This is modern AL baseball – there’s barely anyone on the bench.
C – Hank Conger: Acquired from the Angels via trade in the offseason (in what was Luhnow’s most head-scratching move so far). Rated as the best pitch framer in all of baseball. Barely hit his weight in LA, has done better at the plate so far with a little pop. Switch-hitter, so if Castro struggles, could push to be the starter.

Infield – Jonathan Villar: Acquired in the ~~Berkman trade with the Yankees~~ Oswalt trade with the Phillies. Originally a SS, had to become a utility player to have a future with the team. Capable of highlight-reel plays, but fails to make the routine plays. Good pinch-runner.

Outfield – Robbie Grossman: Acquired in the Wandy Rodriguez trade from the Pirates. Capable of playing all three outfield spots. Has shown flashes of offense, especially in the second half of seasons, but never put it all together.

Starting rotation:
1.   Dallas Keuchel, LHP – never a hyped prospect, had a 4.50+ ERA his first season and a half. Made a breakthrough last year and posted a 2.82 ERA to become the staff ace. Has followed that up by winning the AL Pitcher of the Month for April with a 0.80 ERA. EXTREME ground ball pitcher – might give up only 1-2 fly ball outs per start. Put a good defense behind him and you’re in great shape.
2.   Colin McHugh, RHP – claimed off waivers from the Mets last year, the front office saw something they didn’t. Astros started working with him to use his curve more often and change eye level with lots of high fastballs, and it has paid off big. Now a high-strikeout guy and could easily put up a 3.00 ERA, which is right about where he is so far this year.
3.   Scott Feldman, RHP – signed as a free agent last year to give veteran presence to the rotation. That’s about all he gives. Just an innings-eater, won’t go below 4.00 ERA. Has an interesting contract in that it was front-loaded; will only make $5M next year after making $15M last year.
4.   Roberto Hernandez, RHP – signed as a minor-league free agent this year, won the 5th spot in the rotation in spring training, then solidified his spot with (a) injuries to others and (b) effective work so far – has put up around a 3.80 ERA.
5.   TBD, currently Samuel Deduno – Deduno is supposed to be the long reliever in the pen, but was pressed into starting duty after injuries and ineffectiveness from others.

Bullpen:
Closer – Luke Gregerson, RHP: Signed as a free agent from San Diego, had never been a closer before. Pretty typical closer stuff – high velocity, good breaking ball, no third pitch. Very effective so far.

Setup – Pat Neshek, RHP: Signed as a free agent from St. Louis. EXTREME sidearm motion, almost submarine – makes it very hard for right-handed hitters to pick up the ball. Only allowed something like .160 average to RH last year. Had a rough first couple appearances but has settled in well.

Setup – Chad Qualls, RHP: Signed as a free agent last year, in his last year of his contract. Closed effectively last year, but lost the job to Gregerson. Strict fastball-slider guy.

Specialist – Tony Sipp, LHP: Claimed off waivers from San Diego, can’t figure why they let him go. Hinch will trust him to go a full inning, not just face lefties.

Specialist – Joe Thatcher, LHP: Minor-league free agent signing, also a former Padre (was with Gregerson and Qualls in SD). Typically used only against lefties.

Josh Fields, RHP: Rule 5 pick from Boston last year, 99 MPH stuff. Got knocked around a ton in the first half of last season then really settled in, and even got moved to closer when Qualls was hurt. Having him at the back of the pen shows how much the pen has improved.

Will Harris, RHP: Claimed off waivers from Arizona in the offseason, also can’t figure out why they let him go. Has pitched 12 straight scoreless innings to start the season. Was originally supposed to go to the minors after Fields came back from injury but has been so good they can’t send him down.

Kevin Chapman, LHP: Just called up from the minors to soak up any long-relief innings until they get the 5th starter straightened out. Won’t be here long.

On the DL:

SS – Jed Lowrie: Signed as a free agent this year, was off to a great start but then tore a ligament in his thumb. Surgery has him out until July. Subpar SS and could move to 3B before his contract is up.

SP – Brett Oberholtzer: Acquired in the Michael Bourn trade from Atlanta. Originally slated to be the #4 starter but developed blister problems in spring training. Still inexperienced and there is no guarantee he can hold down the spot.

SP – Brad Peacock: Out indefinitely with a strained lat. Was in line to be the #5 starter until he got hurt.

Top prospects:

SS – Carlos Correa: #1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, now the #1 overall prospect in all of baseball. Picture somewhere between Cal Ripken and A-Rod (without the roids). Still only 20 years old, and leads AA in average, OBP, and slugging, with 11 steals thrown in for good measure. Above average fielder. Has gone from “should be here some time in 2016” to “should be here by June” so far this year.

SP – Mark Appel: #1 overall pick in the 2013 draft, but hasn’t developed nearly as well as Correa did. Absolutely bombed in high-A last year, but had a good fall and has been OK in AA this year. Will still be a good #2 or #3 starter, but probably a pick they wish they had back.

1b – Jon Singleton: Was given the chance to win the 1b job last season and absolutely dropped it. Went 0 for his last 39 or 40 AB in September, had his confidence completely shot. Went back to AAA to start this year and is hitting great. Signed to a 6-year/$10M contract so will be given every chance to win back the 1b job.

This article has been edited to properly reflect that Villar was acquired from the Phillies, not the Yankees.

April 2010 Spike and Star Award Winner

Posted on May 6, 2010 by Noe in Austin in Featured, Monthly Awards

potm The winners or better yet, winner, of the April Spike and Star Award for the month of April in 2010 has been chosen. It was not a good month for the team overall, suffering some of the worse performance by the team in perhaps all it’s history. Two eight game losing streaks, un-timely hitting, lots of miscues on defense, some relief pitching gone awry, just overall lousy play. Yet through it all, at least one player emerged from it all not only performing to great standards, but displaying the hard nosed attitude and passion in doing so. Who might this player be? Well, let’s not wait any longer to honor the man.

April 2010 Spike Award Winner

Michael Bourn has been elected the deserving one of the Spike Award this month by the TalksZone citizenry. The masses have spoken and the SnS agrees, very good choice. Often it’s said that if we were to chose the one action that we would expect from a Spike winner it would be running through a wall for the team. Many players have reputation of doing such and some player look like they’d be the type, but with Michael, it is that he just goes out and does it night in and night out. His ability to play defense at a level that puts him in the stratosphere of the best of the best just proves he is going to be tough to beat every month as the perpetual winner of the award. Then again, if everyone played defense like Bourn, this team wouldn’t be in the dire situation it finds itself in terms of winning ballgames.

April 2010 Star Award Winner

Michael Bourn swept the SnS awards this month as he was the overwhelming choice for the Star award this month by the TalkZoners. Again, the SnS agrees with the choice as does the statistical evidence. Michael led the starters on the team in batting average in April to the tune of .311, while posting a .407 OBP and a .387 SLG percentage. Bourn also stole 9 bases, several of which contributed heavily to rare wins by the team who struggled offensively in April. His 23 hits in 21 games in April was impressive as he continues to use what he learned last year and applied to an everyday approach for success at the major league level. Michael did have a high number of strikeouts in April, not many of which were about being a free swinger though. He had a stretch where he looked like he was taking too many pitches in order to comply with the duties of a leadoff man and that got him behind in most counts leading to the high strikeouts. He’s seemed to have made an adjustment and remains aggressive but controlled with his approach as the leadoff man. Right now, Bourn is on pace to be the lone Astros representative in the All-Star game and if the SnS Star Award is a launching pad for said recognition, all the better.

2010 SnS Spike and Star Awards

Posted on March 29, 2010 by Noe in Austin in Featured, Monthly Awards

potm At SpikesnStars.com, the rich tradition of handing out monthly awards to top performers for the Houston Astros continues as we enter into the 2010 baseball season. The coveted Spike and Star Award are individual prizes that recognizes the tough as nails play (Spike) and the upper echelon MLB play (Star). Winners are chosen by our very own TalkZone members from a list of candidates pull from a cap… errr… compiled from extensive statistical research and keen baseball observation.

This year, winners might also get any type of coupons we can acquire from local eateries. Calls to the Whataburger food chain has not been returned, but we’re trying and we won’t take no for an answer, unless they call the police and put a restraining order on us. So be prepared to provide your input at the end of every month as we honor those worthy of honoring from this honorable site.

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