Oakland 4, Houston 1

Submitted by Reuben

The Astros suffered their 7th loss in a row today, on Easter Sunday. Last year on Easter, they beat the Rangers 8-2 in the first game of the baseball season, and their first as a godforsaken American League team. It’s basically been all downhill since then.

We had a little family gathering today, at my Aunt and Uncle’s house in North Carolina. My mom and dad, divorced for 20 years now, were both there; my cousins, family friends, various people that I hadn’t ever met or hadn’t seen in 10 or 20 or more years were there, too.

And presiding over it all was my Aunt Meta. I hadn’t seen Meta since Christmas. In January they discovered that her cancer had metastasized. She’s been undergoing pretty intense chemotherapy since then. I wasn’t quite sure what to expect (we had been warned beforehand that everyone would need to be gone by 6pm so she could rest), but she was absolutely the same as always – vivacious, funny, incredibly warm, incredibly happy to see you, and it was not an act in any way – there is no bullshit with Aunt Meta. She speaks her mind, always, and I’ve never thought she was putting on a front of any kind.

In short, she is the kind of aunt anyone with any sense at all would want to have. To see her like that, completely herself, embracing everyone, talking just as loudly as ever, not looking weak or out of it at all, talking about the trip to Italy they’re going to take this fall, stubbornly insisting that we take some food home with us, man, it was the best feeling.

Happy Easter, everyone.
***

Here’s the Gamezone thread, and here’s the box score, for anyone interested in actual information about the game.

contributed by NeilT

When the Astros play the A’s, it always makes me think of their manager, Mr. Bean, and his transformative use of statistics. No one except the Red Sox Senior Advisor on Baseball Operations, Bill James, has so changed the game with numbers, and James’s lectures on religious experience can get a bit long-winded.

Of course as you know, I myself am a statistics god, and I wanted to explain to you why it was certain that this season the Astros would win 93 games. You thought my pick for the Race for the Lid was just bullshit, but no: it was the result of careful statistical analysis. My pick is a certainty.

To begin with, a team doesn’t win 93 games by chance. It’s statistically possible, but it’s unlikely—in statistical parlance, not probable—that a team would win 93 games by chance. It would be real lucky for your team, and real unlucky for the other teams, and that would be mighty unlikely. Sorry, not probable. Unprobable?

We start from 2013’s 51-111.

OPS

Do you remember a single argument on the Talk Zone last season about the value of OPS? There had been at least one Talk Zone kerfuffle per season about OPS since the internet was invented. Last year there was none. Why? Because none of the Astros players had an OPS. You can see this in last season’s batting statistics for the following five randomly chosen players: Brad Peacock, Paul Clemens, Bret Oberholtzer, Josh Fields, and Jared Cosart.

This absence was a conscious decision on the part of Astros management. They didn’t expect the Astros to win, and it was not probable—nonprobable?—that the purchase of expensive OPSs would have changed the season in a meaningful way.

This season Owner Crane has promised to purchase OPSs for at least the top five hitters in the lineup, and I’ll be happy to see at least some players with OPSs, because it significantly improves the game.

Purchasing OPSs will add 10.26 wins (rounding to the nearest 100th) to the Astros wins. 61.26-100.74.

Mike Fast

Having Mike Fast as a veteran analytical presence will bring stability and innovation to the front office. 6.45 wins.

Sexual Preening

Last season the Astros only had one Ladies Night. Many commentators jeered at Ladies Night as out of touch with modern notions of gender and sexual roles, but it was actually a brilliant strategy that capitalized on the delicate and complicated psyches of young males to produce more wins.

As you may be aware, everyone on the Astros roster is male, and not just any kind of males, but young males. I’m not sure how they get away with these ageist and sexist hiring practices, but of course I stay away from political commentary in recaps. The statistically important thing is that a male’s most productive years are at the height of his sexual drive, between the ages of 18 and 32. During those years males will do their best, most innovative work. Theory of relativity? Young male. Cubism? Young males. DNA was invented by young males.

The Beatles? Every one of them was a young male.

Statistically, young males between 18 and 32 are 32.l375% more creative than at any other time in their lives. Why? Girls. By scheduling at least one Ladies Night—note, by the way, the etymological relationship between “ladies” and “laid”—for each remaining home series, the Astros are significantly increasing the number of objects of sexual desire in the stadium for their players, thereby making it significantly more probable that the players will do their best work, thereby making it much less probable that the Astros will lose. Last season, the Astros’ home record was 24-57 over 25 home series, for a losing percentage of 70.37%. The team will add 21 Ladies Nights in 2014. They will pick up 8.04 games through the increased number of Ladies Nights. 75.76-86.24.

More inprobable?

Please note that I have considered the effect of gay players in this discussion, but have dismissed its relevance. No major league baseball player was ever gay. Or lesbian. And if they were transvestites they were straight transvestites.

The Astros are also considering featuring the kiss cam between every inning, and I encourage them to do so. Get those boys hot and bothered.

Television and Ridicule

More players will actually have been on the major league team and in Houston long enough to get cable tv, thereby allowing them to watch games. The jeering drone of Alan Ashby will so embarrass them that they will try harder, making it antiprobable that they will lose. 4.39 games.

Increased Payroll

Last year the Astros opened the season with a payroll of $26,000, guaranteeing Owner Crane profits of $99 million. This year’s team payroll is estimated at about $44,000. My bike mechanic says that for bicycles, you can lose about one pound for each $1000 spent, so for baseball you can estimate about one win per $1000 spent. 1.8 wins. 81.91-80.09.

Grorege Springer

They gave Geroge number 4 for a reason. 85.91-76.09.

Luck

It is often said that a team makes its own luck, but this is demonstrably false: luck goes to the lucky. Scientific studies show that 97.34 % of those who experience luck are in fact lucky. This is not mere happenstance, and it can be demonstrated thus: a similar percentage of those who experience bad luck are not lucky. Imlucky? Last year the Astros were apparently very imlucky, as demonstrated by William James’s Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball, which very fittingly has something to do with beans. This year the Astros will be lucky if they are lucky, and it all evens out in the end, so they will win 8.2528% more games just by luck (corrected by .07%). To put this differently, they have to get their share of the wins, which are known among us statistics gods as Win Shares.

It’s going to be a great season. Margin of error 3.67%, so don’t be surprised if they win 96.67 games. See you at the World Series.

***

I know, some of you are thinking “but NeilT, after a terrible week like this week past, aren’t you worried that the Astros won’t reach 51 wins, much less 93?” Obviously, you’re ignorant. Advanced statistical analysis like mine isn’t affected by what happens on the field. Tonight’s a perfect example. The Astros lost again, 11-3, with Cosart giving up 7 earned runs in the first inning. That’s good, ‘cause it was a West Coast game that didn’t start until 11:30 or so, so we could all go to bed early.

The As scored 1 more in the 2nd and 2 in the 5th off Clemens—Cosart only got through .1 innings. They scored their final run in the 7th off Valdes.

The Astros runs came in the top of the 5th, so the ten-run rule was never invoked. Villar, Altuve, and Fowler singled to start the inning, driving in Villar. Springer singled driving in Altuve. Karter drove in Fowler on a sac fly.

The batting order was shuffled a bit, with Altuve batting first, Fowler second, Springer fourth, and Kris Karter sixth. Karter had 3 SO. Everybody got to pitch.

Get that lid ready.

Royals 5 Astros 1

Contributed by Mr. Happy

Mrs. Happy and I traipsed on down to Fifth Third Field for a Toledo Mudhens game tonight for some live baseball, which is why I was absent from the Game Zone. A good time was had by all. J.D. Martinez, who plays for the Mudhens, has been hitting pretty well thus far but tonight he looked a lot like the J.D. Martinez I knew as an Astro, striking out on a full count heater up in his eyes that was ball four. Even though I was wearing Astros regalia, I couldn’t bring myself to heckle him. Retreads like Justin Sellers, Bryan LaHair and Nyjer Morgan were on the field for the Columbus Clippers, which is Cleveland’s AAA farm team.

The Astros struck out 13 times while only garnering five knocks en route to a brooming by Kansas City 5-1 to drop to 5-11. James Shields twirled eight masterful and efficient (107 pitches, 64 for strikes) frames of 12 strike out four hit ball, surrendering but one run on a sacrifice fly by Alex Presley. No Astro had more than one hit to drop the team’s BA to a putrid .188. Scott Feldman looked a lot more like Scott Feldman tonight, who was a 53-56 4.53 career pitcher coming into tonight’s action in dropping his record to 2-1.

The Royals had all of the runs that they would need after two innings. They touched Feldman for nine hits and five runs, four of which were earned. If there were some silver linings to tonight’s game, they included that George Springer got his second big league hit and that Anthony Bass needed only 29 pitches to toss three scoreless frames.

It doesn’t get any easier for the Good Guys as they travel to the Left Coast to wrestle with the Oakland A’s and then the Seattle Mariners. You can read my series preview of the A’s series. Come visit us in the Game Zone.

Astros lose 6-4 in extra innings.

WP: Danny Duffy (1-0)
LP: Jerome Williams (0-1)
S: Gregg Holland (5)

contributed by Sphinx Drummond

BOX

The usual 13,000 or so who attend home games were joined by another 10,000 (or so) who were eagerly awaiting the debut of George Springer only to be greeted by Gerorge Springer, at least according to the Astros’ scoreboard operators. Come on guys, it’s embarrassing enough being a proud Astro fan. Okay so maybe it’s not as egregious as promoting an appearance by a dead guy but I really think this organization needs to hire a proof reader.

As nice as the addition of Springer is, the team is still about 5 or 6 position players and 5 or 6 pitchers from being contenders. But he does make them incrementally more competitive. They’re are better team with Grorege in the line up. Even if he did only manage a 20 foot infield single as his first hit, finishing the night 1 for 5.

After a clean first frame, the Astros fell behind in the second on a solo blast by Danny Valencia. Goerge Springer’s single came with one out in the bottom of the third inning and he scored his first run when the next batter Jason Castro hit his third home run of the season, giving the Astros a 2 to 1 lead.

The Royals scored one run in the fourth inning to tie the game and the Astros surged ahead with two more runs in the sixth frame. Houston starter Dallas Keuchel pitched well though six innings and left the game with a chance to pick up a win. The lead was short lived as Kansas City scored two runs of their own in the top of the seventh.

The game remained tied at the end of nine, and it was on to extra innings. The Royals scored two runs in the eleventh inning off of Jerome Williams, who was working his second inning in relief. Although they did get the tying run on base, the Astros were unable to knock the runners in and lost the game 6-4 in eleven innings.

Thursday the Astros will start Scott Feldman (2-0) and the Royals will send James Shields (0-2) to the mound in a 7:10 CT start time.

The Astros have now fallen to a 5-10 record. It’s not the worst in record in MLB, they still have a better record than the Cubs and Diamondbacks. Also they have fallen below .500 on Wōden’s day for the first time in years* (citation needed). What the hell is going on in Asgaard?

Game Time: 4:06
Weather: 63 degrees, Partly Cloudy
Wind: 9 mph, Out to Left
Attendance: 23,043

Astros 0, Rangers 1

Submitted by Reuben

Brett Oberholtzer became the third Astros starter in three games to throw a fantastic 7 innings but have no W to show for it. Following the offense’s Friday flake-out on Feldman and Chapman’s vulture-job on Cosart Saturday, it was the offense’s turn again Sunday afternoon, as Astro hitters botched the few minor scoring opportunities they had, grounding into 4 double plays and having 2 additional runners get caught stealing. Despite 5 hits and 3 walks, they did not have a baserunner even reach 2nd base against the Rangers.

Credit to Arlington hurler Martin Perez (not to be confused with centerfielder Leonys Martin) for a well-pitched game. He gave the Astros very little to hit, and seemed able to get ground balls at will. But these Houston hitters are in a team-wide slump, make no mistake. If hitting is contagious, not-hitting is fuckin’ viral these days in the Astros’ clubhouse. Perhaps they should be collectively referred to as The Traffic Jam, because they all seem to be stuck on the Interstate – from Dominguez and Carter on down to Grossman and Krauss, 9 of the 13 position players are batting between .120 and .190. Even the once-red-hot Dexter Fowler is 0-for his last 15, dropping his average to .235.

You know what though? I’d rather see the Astros lose 1-0 than 8-5, or 12-5, or 12-0 for that matter. Those kinds of scores were all too common last year. The pitching, outside of Harrell and 2 or 3 relievers, has looked much better in the early going than it did last season, and Oberholtzer held up his end of the deal and then some in this game. Obie tossed 7 innings and struck out 7, allowing 4 singles, a double, and no walks. The only run of the game, in the 6th, was hard to fault him for: consecutive seeing-eye groundball singles followed by a sac fly. He was outstanding, and efficient, only needing 89 pitches to get through 7. So why didn’t Porter send him back out for the 8th? Perhaps someone needs to remind Bo that baseball rules DO allow starting pitchers to pitch more than 7. This isn’t Little League, or the World Baseball Classic. Bringing in Jerome Williams to pitch the 8th of a 1-0 game was almost as much of a head-scratcher as foregoing Fields and Qualls in favor of Chapman for the 9th on Saturday. I’m sure there must be good reasons for these moves. Must be…

The offense will get better. Even Chris Carter probably won’t hit .150 for the entire year. Altuve is doing fine; Fowler, Jason Castro, I have faith in those guys. Hell, the odds are overwhelming that 2 or 3 of the other guys will wind up hitting .250-.280… just hard to say which ones at present. Or when their next hit with runners in scoring position and two outs in a tight game will happen. In the meantime, I will continue to find 1-0 baseball games entertaining if they continue to provide them.

Astros 6, Rangers 5

W: Chapman (1-0)
L: Soria (1-1)
SV: Bass (2)

The future of the Astros is starting to take shape. Jared Cosart was strong on the hill Saturday, going seven innings and only giving up three runs on six hits. He was staked to a 5-2 lead going to the eighth, mostly on the back of Robbie Grossman’s three-run blast during a five-run fourth inning.

Albers was brought in for the eighth, and he gave up a run by walking Andrus and giving up a double to Alex Rios. Arrogance, hubris and stupidity combined to make Rios try to steal third with Fielder up, and he was promptly thrown out by Corporan. Two ground ball outs got him out of the inning.

Porter dialled up his lefty reliever for the ninth. Chapman appears to have some value going against lefthanded hitters, but wow is he a crap shoot facing righties. Choice greeted his batting-practice fastball with a 420′ blast to right-center.

A walk and a sac bunt brought Porter to the mound for a focus session. Mixing in two very hittable strikes with pitches that were nowhere near the plate, Chapman got a clutch strikeout of a talented Shin-Soo Choo to end the bottom of the ninth.

With one out in the top of the 10th, Castro lashed a shot to the RF corner, where it hit an angle and rolled away from Rios in right, enabling Castro to get to third. Altuve followed with a sac fly to deep right that scored pinch-runner Marwin Gonzalez with the winning run.

Bass took the mound in the bottom of the frame and gave up a liner by Andrus that Altuve misplayed into a single. Black Amish stole second, setting up the play of the night.

Go here, now, and watch this. Really.

Villar. He a bad man with leather.

Fielder was walked intentionally. Bass pounded the low strike zone to Kouzmanoff, trying to get a double play, but when Andrus stole third he pulled the string with a high slow curve that was unexpected and swung through for out #2. He teased Choice with a couple of pitches outside the zone, then got the overanxious hitter to offer on one away, resulting in a nubber to Carter for the final out.

It’s unlikely, but the Astros can take the series with a win today. At least this one snapped a 12-game losing streak to these yokels. It’s going to be fun, watching these smug cocksuckers on their inevitable slide down the hill. Stick those rally hats up your ass, you stupid claw and antler morons.