Not So Fast

Posted on May 11, 2002 by Arky Vaughan in Crunch Time

Their first 28 games of 2002, in spring training, the Astros went 19-9. They followed that with a dismal 14-21 performance, finding themselves in fourth place on May 11 and leading many of their so-called fans to write them off with just a fifth of the marathon that is the regular season completed. Since that time the Astros have won seven of eight games, putting them at one game below .500 after passing the quarter post last week. In 2001 the Astros languished at one game below .500 as late as May 29, when they were 24-25. They failed to get over .500 permanently until June 18.

Jimah’s Dilemmas

Posted on April 23, 2002 by Arky Vaughan in Crunch Time

Who Needs Rookies?

The rookies aren’t hitting, and this apparently has Jimah spooked. During spring training, new manager Jimy Williams declared rookie Morgan Ensberg his starting third baseman, but Ensberg stumbled out of the gate. Ensberg is batting .250 with just two extra-base hits in 40 at-bats, although he has half as many walks as hits, giving him a .348 OBP. Given that it’s just three weeks of performance, those numbers don’t mean much. Nonetheless, in the last 10 days, Williams has started career utility player Geoff Blum four times and Ensberg five times at third base.

The Cost of Victory

Posted on February 25, 2002 by Arky Vaughan in Crunch Time

Discussing the relationship between money and success in baseball provokes strong reactions.

Crystal Ball

Posted on February 14, 2002 by Arky Vaughan in Crunch Time

Baseball statistics measure performance, not ability. Performance obviously results in part from ability, but baseball statistics also reflect randomness, or luck. A player might bat .310 one season and .290 the next without any appreciable decline in ability. In 600 at-bats, the difference between .310 and .290 is 12 hits, one every 50 at-bats or about every two weeks. Clearly chance alone might explain such a small discrepancy.

The Fallacies of Fanning

Posted on February 5, 2002 by Arky Vaughan in Crunch Time

Last season the Brewers shattered the major-league club record by striking out 1,399 times, eclipsing the mark of 1,268 set by the 1996 Tigers. As power-hitting has come to dominate the game, increasingly more players are swinging for the fences with whip-handled bats that generate tremendous speed over the plate. Coupled with changes to the strike zone in 2001, the result for the Brewers was lots of home runs and lots of strikeouts.

Defensive Decision

Posted on January 9, 2002 by Arky Vaughan in Crunch Time

Was Ozzie Smith’s first-ballot election to the Hall of Fame another instance of that institution’s supposedly declining standards? After all, inductee Red Ruffing had a better career batting average and more career home runs than Smith, and Ruffing was a pitcher.