Their first 28 games of 2002, in spring training, the Astros went 19-9. They followed that with a dismal 14-21 performance, finding themselves in fourth place on May 11 and leading many of their so-called fans to write them off with just a fifth of the marathon that is the regular season completed. Since that time the Astros have won seven of eight games, putting them at one game below .500 after passing the quarter post last week. In 2001 the Astros languished at one game below .500 as late as May 29, when they were 24-25. They failed to get over .500 permanently until June 18.
More important than their position relative to themselves last year is their position relative to their competitors this year. The Reds lead the second-place Cardinals by four games and the third-place Astros by five games. Maybe Cincinnati will maintain its pace with a starting rotation of Elmer Dessens, Chris Reitsma, Joey Hamilton, Jimmy Haynes, and a resurrected Jose Rijo. Stranger things have happened. It seems likely, though, that the Astros and Cardinals, preseason favorites, down-to-the-wire rivals in 2001, and winners of the last six Central Division titles, will again be the contenders this season.
The Astros have outscored their opponents by 27 runs, the seventh-best mark in the majors and the highest total in their division. Based on this, their projected won-loss record is 24-19, the same as that of the Reds. (Projected won-loss record depends on the relationship between winning percentage and run differential, with wins and losses proportional to runs and runs allowed squared.) Their projected won-loss record and 3-6 record in one-run games indicates that the Astros have been unlucky. In contrast, in one-run games the Reds are 10-5, and the Cardinals, with a projected won-loss record of 22-21, are 7-6.
Luck is not guaranteed to even out over a season. In 2000 the Astros missed their projected won-loss record by eight games, while in 2001 they exceeded it by four games. A team that is one game below .500 and has underachieved, however, likely has a more promising future than a team that is one game below .500 and has overachieved. Put another way, a team that has outscored its opponents by 27 runs and is 21-22 has more potential than a team that has been outscored by its opponents by 27 runs and is 21-22. Clearly a team that has outscored its opponents by more than half a run per game has the raw materials to be a winner.
Controversy Abated
Two off-season moves that aroused controversy were the departures of proven veterans Moises Alou and Vinny Castilla and their replacements with untested youngsters Daryle Ward and Morgan Ensberg. To date Alou has played in 25 of 41 Cubs games and batted .161/.223/.253, creating an estimated five runs, or 2.14 runs per 27 outs. Playing 38 of 43 Astros games, Ward has batted .312/.333/.437 and created 21 runs, or 5.84 runs per 27 outs. Alou is obviously not a .161 hitter and should heat up if he stays healthy, which is by no means a given. Ward has not hit with the power the Astros might have expected, but he also has another three-fourths of the season to prove himself.
Castilla, in 40 of 45 Braves games, has batted .215/.250/.356 and created 15 runs, or 3.06 runs per 27 outs. Ensberg, in 34 of 43 Astros games, has batted .264/.362/.436 and created 17 runs, or 5.79 runs per 27 outs. The season is still young, so these numbers are of limited reliability, but their track records indicate that Ensberg will out-hit Castilla. Especially if manager Jimy Williams stops starting Geoff Blum part-time, the Astros might see what Ensberg can really do. This trend has lessened recently, so maybe The Inexplicable One has figured out who should be the starter and who is the career utility man.
Rest for the Weary?
Few sights are as painful as watching an aging player’s skills decline. Craig Biggio is unlikely ever to return to the heights that made him one of the best players in the world in 1997 and 1998, and at this point he is a long way from the solid performances he delivered in 1999 and 2001 around his injury-terminated 2000. He is batting .221/.326/.383 on the season and has endured a hideous .153/.265/.288 May. Is the disaster unfolding before fans in 2002 a mammoth slump, an injury, or the disintegration of Biggio’s ability to play in the majors? Perhaps it is a mix of all three.
It is improbable but not impossible that a player of Biggio’s caliber has gone from being still one of baseball’s best lead-off hitters in 2001 to an out machine to be benched in place of spare parts like Jose Vizcaino in 2002. If this is in fact Biggio’s swan song, he has fallen off the table awfully quickly. He has played so poorly that fans forget that while he is aging, Biggio is still just 36, not 46. More likely is that Biggio’s April performance of .267/.365/.444 is not atypical of his true level of ability at this point in his career, but he hit a trough so deep in May that he is simply beside himself to get out of it.
To match his 2001 numbers, Biggio would need to bat .314/.400/.479 the rest of 2002. This is extremely unlikely given his age and his performance thus far. Moreover, the Astros do not have all season to let Biggio dig himself out of his hole. For his sake as well as theirs, the Astros should insist that he be examined to ensure that he is 100 percent healthy. If he is hiding an injury, the Astros should give some serious thought, whether Biggio likes it or not, to whether he needs time on the disabled list. This would entitle Biggio to rest and a rehabilitation assignment in the minor leagues. In any event, he should be rested a couple of days weekly, at least until his performance improves, and should be encouraged in the strongest possible terms to work with hitting coach Harry Spilman and to hit the batting cages hard.
Platooning Biggio with Vizcaino does not appear to be a solution. Just eight of 35 Astros games have been against left-handed starters. Thus, platooning Biggio and Vizcaino would mean starting Biggio about once every six games. If he is to get out of his slump, that is no way to do it. Moreover, while Biggio is clearly failing to meet expectations, Vizcaino is probably playing over his head. His .297 batting average has been compiled in just 64 at-bats, and his .308/.375 OBP and slugging average are no better than Biggio’s. If the Astros determine that Biggio is so awful that they can only use him once per week, they need to look elsewhere for a second baseman.