Who Am I?

Lance McCullers, Jr.

RHP

Age: 23

Height: 6′ 1″

Weight: 205

Throws right, Bats left

WAIT A MINUTE. A right-handed pitcher batting lefty?

How did I get here?

Houston drafted Lance in the supplemental first round (41st overall) in 2012. (That pick was compensation for losing Clint Barmes to free agency, which may be the best value received on a compensation pick vs. value “lost” in team history.) McCullers was originally called up in May 2015.

Contract status: Not eligible for arbitration until 2019.

Why am I here?

LMJ is your clear-cut #2 in the rotation heading into 2017. If he stays healthy, he might be #1. He’s that good.

What are my strengths?

The prettiest curveball you’ve seen since the days of Darryl Kile. Hitters were only .167 against it in 2015, and dropped to .140 in 2016.

Oh, and he can throw his fastball up around 97 if that helps.

What are my weaknesses?

That fastball comes in fast. It goes out fast, too – hitters pounded LMJ for a .443 average and .598 SLG in 2016. Results of his rarely-used change up were even worse. (Avert your eyes if you have a weak stomach – he gave up a .958 SLG on the change last year.)

More than this, McCullers walks a lot of batters. And strikes out a lot of batters. And runs high counts on all the other batters. In other words, he runs a really high pitch count – which limits his endurance. In 36 career starts, he’s made it to the 8th inning twice. He made it to the 7th inning only 12 times. And it’s not like he’s struggling on the second trip through the lineup – his career ERA in innings 1-3 is 4.27; in innings 4-6, it is 2.16.

If this kid starts listening to Crash Davis, the sky’s the limit.

What is my future with the Astros?

I am firmly convinced that Lance McCullers is the ace of this staff going forward. That future may be now. If Keuchel is holding down the ace role while LMJ is healthy… things will look very, very good indeed.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

(Note #1: McCullers’ 2015 ERA was 3.22. His 2016 ERA was 3.22. His career ERA is 3.22. I feel that predicting a 3.22 ERA may be my safest WAG of this series.)

(Note #2: McCullers gave up a whopping .383 batting average on balls in play in 2016. That’s the type of bad luck that will NOT repeat itself.)

Well, we’ve mentioned Darryl Kile. But if I look outside the Astros? Mark Prior.

I can only pray LMJ stays healthier.

Who Am I?

Dallas Keuchel

LHP

Age: 29

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 205

Throws left, Bats left

How did I get here?

Drafted in the 7th round by Houston in 2009. Called up in 2012.

Contract status: Keuchel avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 1 year, $9.15M contract for 2017. He has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining, then can become a free agent after the 2018 season.

Why am I here?

I don’t want to put too fine a point on this, but Houston’s 2017 season pretty much ride’s on Keuchel’s left arm. If he’s the pitcher he was in 2016, the Astros could still battle for a wild card spot, and then pray that McCullers or some pitcher yet to be determined can get them through the wild card game.

But if he’s the pitcher he was in 2014 and 2015 – a clear ace? Buckle up, folks – it’s going to be one hell of a ride.

What are my strengths?

The Astros have plenty of guys who could throw the ball through a door. Giles, Feliz, McCullers – and Martes waiting in the wings. Dallas Keuchel of 2014 and 2015 is another guy who could throw the ball through the door.

He’d just fit it through the keyhole.

For two years, Keuchel absolutely painted the edge of the plate – just on and just off. Keuchel could then choose from the sinker or the slider to put the hitter away.

Oh, and he fields his position better than any Astro pitcher not named Mike Hampton.

What are my weaknesses?

Keuchel’s fastball and curve went from “show-me” pitches in 2014-15 to “hit-me” last season, and batters seemed to be sitting on the sinker – after giving up only a .302 SLG on sinkers in 2015, he jumped to a .486 SLG in 2016.

What is my future with the Astros?

There are two clear paths here.

On one road, Keuchel bounces back in 2017, leads the Astros on a deep playoff run, and Jim Crane writes his first big extension check before Dallas becomes a free agent.

The other road… the other road is the Keuchel of 2016. One that shows that it wasn’t pitching hurt, it was that the league figured him out. And now the Astros putative ace heads into 2018 with no extension, a possible trade, and people wondering if a window is already closing.

So as I said before… there’s more than a little bit riding on Keuchel’s left arm in 2017.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

The fielding reminds me of Mike Hampton, but nothing else about them is similar. I’m going with Barry Zito. Now we find out if Keuchel is still capturing Zito’s Oakland years, or if he’s turning into the version across the bay.

Who Am I?

James Hoyt

RHP

Age: 30

Height: 6′ 6″

Weight: 230

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Well, he started out working on sailboats in San Diego. (Seriously). Then he tried out for the Yuma Scorpions in 2011, and was coached by coaching legend Jose Canseco. You may not believe this, but Yuma folded after 2011. I’m sure it wasn’t Jose’s fault. He played for a couple more independent teams in 2012, and caught on with Tabasco in the Mexican League in 2012, which likely added some fire to his heater. He was signed by the Braves as a free agent in November 2012, then dealt to Houston along with Evan Gattis in exchange for Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, and Andrew Thurman in January 2015. He was added to the 40-man roster in August 2016.

Contract status: You may not believe this after that last paragraph, but he’s making the league minimum. 2 option years remaining.

Why am I here?

Worst case scenario: he’s bouncing up and down from AAA as injuries in the bullpen dictate.

Best case scenario: opposing hitters are facing a wipeout slider second only to Giles… in the sixth inning.

What are my strengths?

First, let me refresh you, Dear Reader, on what I said about Ken Giles earlier this week:

With all due respect to Billy Wagner and Brad Lidge, Giles possesses potentially the best out pitch of any Astro reliever. Giles threw the slider 529 times last year, recording 181 swing-and-misses vs. only 12 hits. Hitters had a .093 average and .186 SLG against the slider. It became a very simple process: if Giles got ahead in the count, the at-bat was over. Hitters went .157/.164/.276 once behind in the count against Giles.

Dear Reader, I’d like to introduce you to Ken Giles’ older brother. In his 22 major league innings, Hoyt thew his slider more than his fastball, 204 to 143. He gave up a .149 average and .298 SLG against the slider. But it was a good enough weapon that once he was ahead in the count, hitters went only .129/.129/.226.

What are my weaknesses?

What else did I say about Giles?

When the batter got ahead in the count, they went .362/.581/.723 against Giles. Essentially, if you could get ball one, you turned into Barry Bonds against him.

Small sample size warning, but… 33 batters got ahead of Hoyt. They went .348/.515/.957.

Yes, .957.

You see, Dear Reader, Hoyt has a good fastball – he’ll hit 94 or 95 – but it certainly isn’t Giles’ fastball. So if hitters are spitting on that slider and taking their chances with a 100 MPH heater, well, I leave it to the reader’s imagination what they’ll do sitting dead red on 94 MPH.

What is my future with the Astros?

Look, the man went from the Yuma Scorpions to the Houston Astros in 5 years. Betting against him seems folly. Everything from his past few seasons in the minors to the advanced projection systems says he’s going to be a good one.

I just can’t shake the feeling that Cinderella’s coach is about to turn back into a pumpkin.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

Who else would I remind you of?

Jimmy Morris.

Who Am I?

Will Harris

RHP

Age: 32

Height: 6′ 4″

Weight: 250

(/needle scratches)

250? Damn, Will. I never realized he was quite so… sturdy.

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Harris was drafted in the 9th round in 2006 by Colorado. In 2013, he was claimed by Oakland off waivers, and stayed there all of 3 days until Arizona claimed him again off waivers. In November 2014, he was waived by Arizona and claimed by Houston, in one of Jeff Luhnow’s better roster moves.

Contract status: Harris signed a 2-year contract with a team option for 2020 this offseason to buy out his arbitration years. He will earn $2.8M this season and next; the option is for $5.5M, which can increase up to $8.5M based on his performance.

Why am I here?

Harris will lock down the 7th or 8th inning, close if the need arises, and provide veteran leadership over the  next few seasons to a very young bullpen. Harris has wound up the key to the Houston bullpen since his arrival.

What are my strengths?

Harris is a big believer in democracy; that is, he gets LOTS of ground balls. He got close to a 2:1 grounder/fly ball ratio at one point last year. He also has the control you want in a reliever, especially one that can be brought in mid-inning. Harris faced 100 batters with men on last year, and only walked 3 of them – against 24 strikeouts.

What are my weaknesses?

Harris mixes his pitches well, but he has neither elite velocity nor a true “out” pitch. I’d say his cutter comes closest, but there’s nothing that you can always rely on for a swing and a miss.

What is my future with the Astros?

Jeff Luhnow answered that question with the contract for Harris in the offseason. He’s here for the next three years, and after that, his late debut is going to make free agency a questionable proposition, as he’ll already be 35.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

Who else would I remind you of?

Forgive me for bringing up a Brave, but I’d say Kerry Lightenberg – no one pitch you feared, probably not going to be the closer, but you sure didn’t want to face him in a clutch situation.

Who Am I?

Jandel Gustave

RHP

Age: 24

Height: 6′ 2″

Weight: 210

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

It seems simple enough: he was signed by Houston as a 17 year old international free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2010. But in the 2014-15 offseason, he was:

• selected by Boston in the Rule 5 draft;
• traded by Boston to Kansas City;
• waived by Kansas City and claimed by the Padres most of the way through Spring Training;
• and returned to the Astros when he did not make the Padres’ major league roster.

Contract status: not eligible for arbitration until 2020. 2 option years remaining.

Why am I here?

Gustave will provide bullpen depth while the team continues to groom him for a future late-inning role.

What are my strengths?

As Larry so eloquently put it in Bull Durham:

“This kid has some serious shit.”

Gustave will routinely touch 100 MPH. His slider is at least average and looks like he could harness it as a plus-pitch.

(Larry was full of wisdom, none moreso than, “Sears sucks.”)

What are my weaknesses?

Again with that whole lack of control issue. He’s improved markedly from his Nuke LaLoosh days in rookie ball, but he’s still unpredictable with his location.

What is my future with the Astros?

I see a bright future for this youngster. The progress in his control, the fact that he held his own during his sips of big league coffee for 2016 – I think you’re looking at a future setup man.

So learn to say his name.

(It’s “yawn-DELL”. With a soft “j”)

What is my projected 2017 performance?

Who else would I remind you of?

Other than Ebby Calvin LaLoosh? I’m seeing some Octavio Dotel here.