Rockies 2, Astros 1

Contributed by Reuben

The big feel-good story coming out of this one is definitely Jordan Lyles. Six days after tossing his best start of the season, a nice crisp 6 innings of 1-run ball vs. the KC Royals, he was even better today, going 7 full and yielding 6 hits and 1 run to the Rockies, who are arguably a much better-hitting club than KC.

Things looked pretty bad in the 1st, when Lyles opened the game by allowing a walk and a single, putting runners at the corners with no outs and Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki due up. However, unlike certain Astro pitchers in certain games this year, Jordan did a nice job of limiting the damage, striking out CarGoPants and, after Tulowitzki barely beat out an RBI infield single, getting a popout from Cuddyer and groundout from Helton (jeez, Todd Helton is still hanging on?) to end the threat.

“Tulo” (as the youngsters call him) came to the plate in the 3rd in an identical situation – 1 out, runners on first and third – but this time, Lyles got him to pop up weakly to shallow LF, where Ronny Cedeno did a nice job of darting into no-man’s land, catching the ball with his back to home plate (the play had huge “Astro Disaster” potential), turning and firing a strike to Carlos Corporan, who did a capable job of blocking the plate and tagging out the runner trying to score from third.

In the 4th, Lyles again looked like a prodigious prestidigitator (you’re welcome, rappers), escaping a bases-loaded, no-out situation by getting a swinging strikeout and a 4-6-3 double play. It’s important to note that for the first two seasons of his MLB career, Lyles had a tendency to cruise along for 3-4 innings and then all of the sudden lose it and give up a huge crooked number in one inning, effectively blowing the game. He did not do that today, and I don’t think it was mere luck. In fact, if you omit his horrible game against the Rangers, Lyles has a 2.57 ERA on the year, with 26 hits allowed in 28 IP. I think we may finally be seeing him starting to become the pitcher a lot of people thought he was going to be. Which would be nice.

In the 9th, Veras gave up a leadoff double to Tulo, who scored the winning run on a Cuddyer single (the run actually wouldn’t have scored were it not for a Wild Pitch – which Corporan should have blocked – as Cuddyer’s hit was just over the drawn-in infield, and the next two batters were retired). I can’t get too worked up about this. It’s unfortunate that they lost a very winnable game – the offense never got much of anything going – but it was still a good ballgame with a great big bright spot.

Athletics 6, Astros 2

W: Colon (5-2)
L: Keuchel (1-2)

It’s a funk all right. Creaky Colon continues to be the kind of player Luhnow covets but doesn’t have. He gave us another display of his value in shutting down the Astros for the third time this season. Colon scattered nine hits, all singles, and one for every 2013 loss the Astros have to Oakland.

Keuchel spit the bit again. He’s showing that he’s best imagined as a long reliever / lefty out of the bullpen but we knew that already. We knew that this team’s defense had some bright spots and some not-so-bright ones, but when they look bad, they make us look like those stupid special effects of dogs covering their eyes with their paws. There’s just no excuse for flinging the ball all over the lot, especially when you’ve got baserunners dead to rights.

Bright spots for today? Castro was 4 for 4. All singles, but the man is hitting the ball. Pena and Cedeno each had a pair of singles. Just like real life at the strip joint, you’re gonna need to bring more than that to the party, guys.

Their funk is not the best, but they love it just the same. The Astros must love it, because they’re on verse 36 of losing.

contributed by Mr. Happy

Mr. Happy had a very busy week. It started with a trip to watch my oldest son, an Eagle Scout, graduate from high school and receive the highest award that the American Legion gives to a civilian. The award was unexpected, and I was very proud. As he transitions from high school to LSU, I battled with his mother over his move to Baton Rouge. It was strangely comforting that in all of the swirls of change in my life that I continue to battle with my ex-wife.

Then I made a trip to Boston to make a speech and make a trek to Fenway Park to catch Tito’s successful and triumphant 12-3 return to Boston. Speeches are nothing new for me, but putting a different company name on the slide that states where I work and what I do was new. As some of you know, I had a very long stretch of no full-time employment, all self-inflicted. I’ve only been off of work for ten days, and I’m already getting antsy to go back to work at my new job in Toledo OH.

Today, I got my rental truck and packed it myself (with a little help from a great soul this morning), and then I had them hook up my car for me to tow the car to Toledo. According to AAA, I’ll be travelling over 1,835 miles over the next few days. But another new life awaits me in Toledo, and I’m excited about it. I’m elated about being closer to family and close to a major airport so that I can get back to Louisiana to see my boys more often.

Tonight’s game was about transitions too. Matt Dominguez and Jason Castro are showing signs of turning the corner as big league ballplayers, each homering twice. However, the Astros are still in a transition themselves back to big league form. And tonight it was just a case of not enough hitting or pitching. BP gets an honorable mention for his gutty long relief stint after Lucas Harrell failed to finish the second frame.

Just when Harrell shows signs of turning the corner, as he did in his last outing against the Pirates, he regresses and takes two steps back, as he did tonight. I really like Harrell, but I’m beginning to think that I was oversold on his grit and fast work ethic. Conceptually, he’s got what it takes to be very successful: a great moving 92-94 two-seamer ground ball machine. However, he battles command issues, and it has plagued him this season.

contributed by NeilT

I love the As. I love their Southern Baptist feel, the green and the gold and the white shoes. I love that they came from the same town as the Black Panthers, and that their stadium from a distance looks like a large pile. Most of all I love their manager, Mr. Bean. No one has done more to define baseball in the modern era. Plus he invented Tupperware.

Certainly our recent Astros owe Mr. Bean a debt of gratitude. Obviously he has been a great influence.

You people don’t properly appreciate that I myself am a statistics god, and since I was at tonight’s game, I thought, in honor of Mr. Bean, I’d share my running statistical analysis of the game with you.

We got there fashionably late, and already the statistics were a’flowing. This is not obvious to everyone, but the most important metric in baseball—often called The Ratio—is runs scored to runs allowed. When we came into the game in the middle of the 1st, that ratio was already 0:2. Now I personally think that expression of The Ratio is rather simplistic, and prefer (along with others who think deeply about the game) to modify the expression to better reflect the meaning of the raw numbers. Some like to use a multiplier–5 is common–to give the ratio greater transparency. In that expression The Ratio would have been 0:10. I prefer to take the innings of the game into account, and use a first inning multiplier of 1/9. Thus, in the first inning The Ratio was 0:.222. Obviously, this better reflects the state of the game.

I was trying to figure out why Robbie Grossman was the lead-off batter. For this I looked to his batting average, .208, which was the closest on the team to a pure .200. He struck out looking at his first at-bat, but here’s where the statistician has baseball knowledge that the casual fan might not: I know that the lower one’s number in the batting order, the better opportunity one has to have more at bats. This is an inverse relationship. Robbie Grossman is hitting almost exactly one hit every five at bats, and by placing him first in the order, the Astros have guaranteed that he will be very likely to have one hit per game.

Three up, three down for the Astros at the bottom of the first. Grossman would have to wait for his hit. But now Bedard was back to give our hitters a much-needed break.

But Bedard failed. Three up, three down. Now our batters would be back to the plate too quickly. Baseball managers like to see pitchers average about 15 pitches per inning. This is to rest the batters. Corporan hit a double in the bottom of the 2nd, and you could see him huffing and puffing as he labored down the line. Too little rest. Fortunately his teammates came to his rescue and gave him a nice long rest at second.

On the other hand, the bottom of the third was a real success for Bedard. It is a little known statistical fact—not opinion—that balls thrown and strikes thrown equals pitches thrown. Bedard started too fast, with Donaldson flying out to center on the first pitch, but after a deep calming breath he walked the next two batters. Brandon Barnes then fouled up his rhythm with an assist on a put-out at third on a long Montz flyball to center.

For The Ratio, it was now 0:.444.

Bottom of the second, three up, three down. Minard was not taking care of his batters. Bedard, on the other hand, was balancing balls to strikes almost perfectly. On 81 pitches, his balls to strikes were 39:42, almost a perfect 1:1. By the bottom of the 4th, Bedard had thrown 92 pitches. These batters were going to be rested! Compare those 92 to Milone’s measly 44 at the end of the 4th. Clearly this evening Bedard was the better pitcher, having gained far more experience throwing pitches.

At the end of the 4th, the ratio was 0:.888.

Matt Dominguez hit a 2-out homer to the Crawford Boxes at the bottom of the 5th. Cedeno followed up with a Texas Leaguer single. Grossman singled to the ferret, and that’s fact, not opinion. Altuve hit an RBI single. The Ratio was now 2:2, or 1:1, or 10:10, or as best expressed, .933:.933. Tie game!

Then J.D., plenty rested from Bedard’s brilliant performance pitching, hit a three-run homer. We’re in the American League, Baybee! 25:10!

Top of the 6th, Smith home run off of Clemens. Damn. 2.888:1.733.

In the 7th, it was Cedeno and then Grossman. Since Grossman had already had his hit he flew out to right. Altuve was robbed on a great catch of a hard liner to third. 3.888:2.333.

Clemens did a great job through the 8th, though he could have been more thoughtful to his batters. Wright came in after the first out in the 8th. Did you know that 92.973% of the time a left-handed pitcher comes in mid-inning late in a game it’s to face a left-handed batter? Who knew? You’d think the left-handed batters would adjust, but they don’t. Smith struck out looking and Moss grounded out softly to second.

You know the very worst statistic in baseball, the one that most breaks your heart? It’s blown saves. I saw one tonight. It broke my heart. Again.

5:6.