contributed by NeilT

I love the As. I love their Southern Baptist feel, the green and the gold and the white shoes. I love that they came from the same town as the Black Panthers, and that their stadium from a distance looks like a large pile. Most of all I love their manager, Mr. Bean. No one has done more to define baseball in the modern era. Plus he invented Tupperware.

Certainly our recent Astros owe Mr. Bean a debt of gratitude. Obviously he has been a great influence.

You people don’t properly appreciate that I myself am a statistics god, and since I was at tonight’s game, I thought, in honor of Mr. Bean, I’d share my running statistical analysis of the game with you.

We got there fashionably late, and already the statistics were a’flowing. This is not obvious to everyone, but the most important metric in baseball—often called The Ratio—is runs scored to runs allowed. When we came into the game in the middle of the 1st, that ratio was already 0:2. Now I personally think that expression of The Ratio is rather simplistic, and prefer (along with others who think deeply about the game) to modify the expression to better reflect the meaning of the raw numbers. Some like to use a multiplier–5 is common–to give the ratio greater transparency. In that expression The Ratio would have been 0:10. I prefer to take the innings of the game into account, and use a first inning multiplier of 1/9. Thus, in the first inning The Ratio was 0:.222. Obviously, this better reflects the state of the game.

I was trying to figure out why Robbie Grossman was the lead-off batter. For this I looked to his batting average, .208, which was the closest on the team to a pure .200. He struck out looking at his first at-bat, but here’s where the statistician has baseball knowledge that the casual fan might not: I know that the lower one’s number in the batting order, the better opportunity one has to have more at bats. This is an inverse relationship. Robbie Grossman is hitting almost exactly one hit every five at bats, and by placing him first in the order, the Astros have guaranteed that he will be very likely to have one hit per game.

Three up, three down for the Astros at the bottom of the first. Grossman would have to wait for his hit. But now Bedard was back to give our hitters a much-needed break.

But Bedard failed. Three up, three down. Now our batters would be back to the plate too quickly. Baseball managers like to see pitchers average about 15 pitches per inning. This is to rest the batters. Corporan hit a double in the bottom of the 2nd, and you could see him huffing and puffing as he labored down the line. Too little rest. Fortunately his teammates came to his rescue and gave him a nice long rest at second.

On the other hand, the bottom of the third was a real success for Bedard. It is a little known statistical fact—not opinion—that balls thrown and strikes thrown equals pitches thrown. Bedard started too fast, with Donaldson flying out to center on the first pitch, but after a deep calming breath he walked the next two batters. Brandon Barnes then fouled up his rhythm with an assist on a put-out at third on a long Montz flyball to center.

For The Ratio, it was now 0:.444.

Bottom of the second, three up, three down. Minard was not taking care of his batters. Bedard, on the other hand, was balancing balls to strikes almost perfectly. On 81 pitches, his balls to strikes were 39:42, almost a perfect 1:1. By the bottom of the 4th, Bedard had thrown 92 pitches. These batters were going to be rested! Compare those 92 to Milone’s measly 44 at the end of the 4th. Clearly this evening Bedard was the better pitcher, having gained far more experience throwing pitches.

At the end of the 4th, the ratio was 0:.888.

Matt Dominguez hit a 2-out homer to the Crawford Boxes at the bottom of the 5th. Cedeno followed up with a Texas Leaguer single. Grossman singled to the ferret, and that’s fact, not opinion. Altuve hit an RBI single. The Ratio was now 2:2, or 1:1, or 10:10, or as best expressed, .933:.933. Tie game!

Then J.D., plenty rested from Bedard’s brilliant performance pitching, hit a three-run homer. We’re in the American League, Baybee! 25:10!

Top of the 6th, Smith home run off of Clemens. Damn. 2.888:1.733.

In the 7th, it was Cedeno and then Grossman. Since Grossman had already had his hit he flew out to right. Altuve was robbed on a great catch of a hard liner to third. 3.888:2.333.

Clemens did a great job through the 8th, though he could have been more thoughtful to his batters. Wright came in after the first out in the 8th. Did you know that 92.973% of the time a left-handed pitcher comes in mid-inning late in a game it’s to face a left-handed batter? Who knew? You’d think the left-handed batters would adjust, but they don’t. Smith struck out looking and Moss grounded out softly to second.

You know the very worst statistic in baseball, the one that most breaks your heart? It’s blown saves. I saw one tonight. It broke my heart. Again.

5:6.

Astros bounce Royals in rubber game 3-2

contributed by Sphinx Drummond

Wednesdays are good to the Astros. The team’s record for Wednesdays improved to 5 wins against 3 losses. If they played all their games on Wednesdays the Astros would finish the season with a 101-61 won-loss record and probably win their division. It wouldn’t make a lot of sense though, because unless they played a lot of double headers, the season would last a little over three years. It would never happen, not with a traditionalist like Bud Selig running the show. We all know how Selig values history and tradition, he’d never go for a Wednesdays only schedule and certainly not if it would be an advantage for the Astros. FYB.

J. D. Martinez’s two run jack in the first turned out to be enough as Jordan Lyles was solid in his 6 innings of work, allowing only one run on 6 hits while walking one and striking out three. It was a rare good night for the bullpen, allowing no runs, with Travis Blackley, Hector Ambriz, and Jose Veras each working a scoreless inning.

The Astros added an insurance run in the eighth, the run was charged to Royal pitcher James Shields. Shields, who didn’t pitch a bad game, is having a hard luck season so far falling to 2-5 though boasting an ERA of 2.47. The Royals join the fallen Angels and the slimy Mariners (twice) as the only teams to lose a series against the Astros.

When he was signed to be a closer, Jose Veras was a big concern for a lot of Astros fans. He had 5 saves in 17 opportunities prior to this season. When he stared this season by blowing two of his first three opportunities, it was ugly. But he has really bounced back well since, saving seven in a row including Wednesday’s game. He might not be so bad after all.

The Astros have an off day Thursday and then welcome the the Oakland Athletics in to Minute Maid Park for a three game series this weekend.

Royals 7, Astros 3

Contributed by Reuben

Home Bud was back.
Paredes broke out the big bat.
And the defense was spot on.

Then Bud’s back came back.
Porter broke out the bullpen.
And the defense was spotty.

The Gamezone thread details the horrors, and educates you about Australian sports.

Pittsburgh 1, Houston 0

W: Locke (4-1)
L: Harrell (3-5)

Harrell was tough today, and the Pirate batters were willing to chase his darting stuff and miss his changeups enough so that solid contact was at a premium. The play in the field was good too, giving us hope that the recent bumblings might be forgotten, or at least intermittent. Victimized finally in the fifth by Alvarez’s breakup of the no-hitter this still was an excellent start for Harrell. He held Pittsburgh to four hits over seven, and they clung to that single run like a flashlight in a storm.

Troubling for the Astros though, was the fact that the Pirates have yet another Invincible Howling Beast on the mound, The Incredible Jeff Locke.

Also taking a no-hitter into the fifth, The Invincible teased us all by allowing a hit – oh look, he’s human – and then another and another, plus two walks over seven. Challenging our hold on reality, this Amazing Man-Child teetered on the high wire while flinging thunderbolts at the Astros. In the end, we had to suppress our spontaneous applause for the astonishing performance by Pittsburgh’s hurlers and the surprising way they were able to hold the fearful prowess of Houston’s bats at bay.

I had a different recap mostly written, but revisiting this just felt right.

contributed by NeilT

Arrr – A variant of arg, of which one usage is an interjection by pirates. It’s derived from English regional dialects adapted to portray Long John Silver by the actor Robert Newton, patron saint of Talk Like a Pirate Day, in the 1950s Walt Disney movie Treasure Island.

Auugh. – a variant of arg, which means to show frustration and despair. Famously used by Charlie Brown, particularly in the context of baseball.

It was a team effort with four errors, but in the end the Astros’ chop-off player of the game had to be Jimmy Paredes, whose outstanding effort saved what could have otherwise been a win. Way to go Jimmy!