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  • Articles posted by MusicMan (Page 8)

40 for 40 Presents: Michael Feliz

Posted on February 25, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

Michael Feliz

RHP

Age: 23

Height: 6′ 4″

Weight: 230

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Signed by the Astros as an international free agent in 2010, after his original contract with Oakland was voided.

Contract status: not arbitration eligible until 2019

Why am I here?

The hope, as Feliz came up through the minors, was that he would emerge as a frontline starter. At this point, he looks like a late inning reliever. His 2017 role will be somewhat similar to Devenski’s, but with a greater emphasis on short appearances where a strikeout is needed.

What are my strengths?

Feliz is a 2-pitch pitcher, but those 2 pitches are plus. His fastball routinely sits at 98, and his slider has been a revelation – he allowed only a .165 batting average off the slider last year. He’s big, sturdy, has a repeatable motion – basically, your classic flamethrower stuff.

What are my weaknesses?

First and foremost – a lack of control. This is evidenced not so much by walks – 22 in 65 IP isn’t atrocious, even if hardly the stuff of shutdown closers. No, the problem is that he too frequently leaves the ball up in the zone. A full 30% of his pitches were up in the zone, and while he could get away with it against righties with his velocity, left handed hitters absolutely crushed those balls, which led to those 10 home runs.

Apart from that? The lack of a third pitch means he has no realistic road to the rotation.

What is my future with the Astros?

It’s easy to see Feliz forming a late-game hammer combo with Giles. It’s also easy to see him failing to master his control struggles and never becoming more than an average middle reliever. His velocity will keep him around for quite a while.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 WINSLOSSESIPHHRBBSOERAWHIP
20168165551022954.431.18
PECOTA3257.749623633.521.26
ZIPS88.3831234994.381.33
MMWAG5478778251003.751.31

Who else would I remind you of?

God, I hate saying it, because I genuinely want Feliz to succeed. But I get more than a whiff of Kyle Farnsworth from him.

40 for 40 Presents: Chris Devenski

Posted on February 24, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

Chris Devenski

RHP

Age: 26

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 210

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Originally drafted in the 25th round of the 2011 draft by the White Sox. Sent to Houston on August 3, 2012 as the player to be named later in addition to Matt Heidenreich and Blair Walters for Brett Myers.

Contract status: not eligible for arbitration until 2019

Why am I here?

Chris Devenski may single-handedly resurrect the role of the swingman. If that’s not too much pressure to put on a guy with one year of experience. He can give you multiple innings from the pen, he can give you a spot start when you need it, he can put out a late inning fire. By the end of 2017, Chris Devenski Facts may replace Chuck Norris Facts.

What are my strengths?

Devo has a wicked, wicked change up. In 2016, he threw 498 changeups total, allowing only 29 hits off it, and only a .240 SLG against the pitch. When he keeps hitters off balance – and that pitch allows him to – they rarely square up. His slider is an effective third pitch, especially when thrown low and away to right handed hitters late in the count.

What are my weaknesses?

His fastball is league-average at best. Even another tick or two on it would allow him to further separate from that change, or maintain his velocity enough to become an effective starter.

What is my future with the Astros?

Bullpen mainstay for years to come… UNLESS a rotation injury gives him a shot that he just doesn’t relinquish. I don’t see that happening; he doesn’t quite have the heat for that third trip through the lineup, and he gives so much value in the swingman role I don’t think AJ will give that up easily.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 WINSLOSSESIPHHRBBSOERAWHIP
201644108.1794201042.160.91
PECOTA548278824753.471.25
ZIPS76.270919773.291.16
MMWAG6310190521902.891.00

Who else would I remind you of?

How about Ramiro Mendoza on those late-90s Yankees teams? Not quite a starter, not quite a closer… but put him in that swingman spot?

Parting thoughts

Hypotheticals can be fun when they’re removed from reality:

  • If you had three wishes, what would you wish for?
  • Which of the Friends would you actually want a relationship with?
  • Who would win a fight, Batman or Superman? (Wait… that was always a dumb question. And and even dumber movie.)

But the hypotheticals that are more “what if” in nature – what historians call “counterfactuals” – those typically have an element of pain:

  • What if JFK had survived, and pulled the US out of Vietnam?
  • What if the Rockets had accepted Portland’s trade offer of Clyde Drexler and the #2 overall pick for Ralph Sampson… thus putting Hakeem, Clyde, and Michael Jordan on the same team?
  • What if the Astros had listened to their scouts and selected Derek Jeter instead of Phil Nevin?

Well, looking back on Devenski’s performance last year brought one more of the latter to mind, and I just can’t quite shake it:

What if the 2015 Astros had that version of Chris Devenski in the bullpen?

40 for 40 Presents: Kevin Chapman

Posted on February 23, 2017 by MusicMan in Uncategorized

Who Am I?

Kevin Chapman

LHP

Age: 29

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 230

Throws Left, Bats Left

How did I get here?

Originally drafted in the 4th round by Kansas City Acquired via trade from Kansas City, along with a PTBNL (D’Andre Toney) for Jason Bourgeois and Humberto Quintero, in March 2012. Out of options.

Why am I here?

Theoretically, to provide a left-handed option out of the bullpen not named Tony Sipp. Realistically, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he’s still on the 40-man roster come Opening Day.

What are my strengths?

Primarily, throwing with the left arm. He’s flashed good strikeout ability in the minors, along with a good ability to keep the ball in the yard.

What are my weaknesses?

In the words of a great philosopher – “Control, control, you must learn control!” Even in the minors, his walk rate was unacceptably high, hovering between 4 and 5 per 9 innings; in his major league appearances, it’s been even worse – and has usually resulted in leaving the ball up, with said ball frequently getting hit very, very hard.

What is my future with the Astros?

Short. Very short.

2016 stats (major league):

9 G, 8 IP, 15 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 0-0

9.00 ERA, 2.38 WHIP, .395/.452/.526 BAA/OBP/SLG

What is my projected 2017 performance?

PECOTA says: 25 G, 26 IP, 26 H, 12 BB, 24 K, 4.35 ERA

ZIPS says: 59 G, 67 IP, 65 H, 33 BB, 71 K, 4.57 ERA

MMWAG says: Nothing. I expect him to be designated for assignment by the end of spring training and claimed by someone desperate for a lefty.

Who else would I remind you of?

Literally hundreds of quad-A lefties that got repeated cups of coffee but who never stuck.

Welcome to OWA: 40 for 40

Posted on February 22, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Howdy, Astros faithful. And even the faithless – welcome.

2017 sets up as a big year. I say that figuratively, because surely nobody has jinxed this by making any premature predic…

… furk.

Well – big, empty predictions deserve big, empty gestures. Which is all a way of saying:

Welcome to OWA: 40 for 40.

40 for 40?

You’ve heard of this thing, “30 for 30”?

Yeah, the acclaimed ESPN documentary series.

Yeah, this is going to blow that right out of the water. Listen to this: 40… for… 40.

Right, yes, I think I see where this is going.

Think about it, man. You log onto the Internet, you see “30 for 30” sitting there, and there’s “40 for 40” sitting, well, not right beside it, but in some similar sort of place.

40’s the key number here. 40 days, 40 nights. The 40/40 club. And, of course: the 40 man roster.

That’s right, intrepid reader, over the 40 days between now and Opening Day, you’re getting a preview of every player on the Astros’ 40 man roster.

What sort of value you will you, a novice writer with no experience in organized baseball, bring to me, an insanely passionate Astros fan paying absolutely nothing for this content?

Only in the (soon to be) acclaimed “OWA: 40 for 40” series will you get the answers to burning questions for every Astros player such as:

  • Who am I?
  • Why am I here?
  • How did I get here?
  • What are my strengths and weaknesses?
  • What is my future with the Astros?
  • What is my projected 2017 performance?

In this last category, you’ll see all the great projection systems:

  • PECOTA, by Baseball Prospectus
  • ZIPS, by FanGraphs
  • MMWAG, by MusicMan’s Wild Ass Guesses

So bring in all of your favorite animals, male and female, because we’re setting sail for the next 40 days to see just what kind of club Mission Control has assembled.

Thanks a lot, Jake

Posted on July 20, 2016 by MusicMan in Game Recaps

July 19, 2016

A’s 4, Astros 3 (10 innings)

W: Rzepczynski (1-0) L: Neshek (2-2)

Box score

Game Zone

Win Probability – boy, that escalated quickly

Well, things started out well.  Valbuena got himself the rarely seen “bat flip on a single in the third inning” to take a 1-0 lead, driving in Altuve.  Springer managed to homer to dead center.  Correa brought in Altuve after a triple.  Keuchel was cruising.  Through 6, it was 3-0.

Damn, things fell apart faster than the GZ thread.

Manager Jake Marisnick left Keuchel in for over 110 pitches, which put runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out.  He then decided to call on key offseason acquisition Jake Marisnick, who immediately allowed a double to make it 3-2.  Some chump in CF cut off a liner to get the second out, allowing him to escape the inning without further damage.

In the 9th, the Astros turned to All-Star closer Jake Marisnick, who promptly allowed back-to-back doubles with one out, tying the game.

In the 10th, the Astros loaded the bases with 2 outs, but Other Jake Marisnick (at DH instead of CF last night) grounded out to end the inning – at least he didn’t hurt himself swinging.

In the bottom of the 10th, two out and a man on first, the Astros turned to their only lefty in the pen, Jake Marisnick.  His season-long troubles continued as he issued a walk, then an infield grounder between Jake Marisnick and Jake Marisnick.  Shortstop Jake Marisnick fielded it, double clutched, then threw wide of the plate, allowing the winning run.

Hopefully, Jake Marisnick will have been removed from the roster by the afternoon conclusion of this series so that the Astros can salvage their season.

 

A pretty good win

Posted on July 5, 2016 by MusicMan in Game Recaps

July 5, 2016

Astros 5, Mariners 2

W: Keuchel (6-9) L: Walker (4-7) S: ALL-STAR Harris (9)

Box score

Game Zone

I didn’t have to endure the Ashby Show tonight, because I was at Minute Maid Park.  We went as a family, to celebrate our son’s 7th birthday.  There was much to celebrate.

We walked hand in hand from the parking lot, into the stadium, up the stairs, and to our seats.  This boy – who needed months and months of intensive physical therapy just to learn to walk – walked, skipped, and ran his way in without complaint.

We searched the stadium in the 3rd inning for a snow cone.  (They’re on the concourse, most of the way up the first base line.)  This boy – who was classified as “failure to thrive” because of his many digestive issues – got to seek out one of his favorite treats at the ballgame.

We celebrated the fireworks and scoreboard show with each of the Astros’ three home runs.  This boy – who we were warned would likely have sensory problems his entire life – relished the noise and couldn’t wait to see the train go.

We talked about whether Dallas Keuchel was a good pitcher, whether Altuve or Correa could hit better, and when they would throw out the t-shirts.  This boy – who we had wondered if he would ever be able to talk – couldn’t stop talking the entire game.

We came home, and I tucked him into bed.

This boy, who we were told might never make eye contact, might never be able to connect with people around him, might never have a normal life… this boy kissed me good night, looked at me, and told me he loved me.

Yeah, it was a pretty good win.

 

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