40 for 40 Presents: Kevin Chapman

Posted on February 23, 2017 by MusicMan in Uncategorized

Who Am I?

Kevin Chapman

LHP

Age: 29

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 230

Throws Left, Bats Left

How did I get here?

Originally drafted in the 4th round by Kansas City Acquired via trade from Kansas City, along with a PTBNL (D’Andre Toney) for Jason Bourgeois and Humberto Quintero, in March 2012. Out of options.

Why am I here?

Theoretically, to provide a left-handed option out of the bullpen not named Tony Sipp. Realistically, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he’s still on the 40-man roster come Opening Day.

What are my strengths?

Primarily, throwing with the left arm. He’s flashed good strikeout ability in the minors, along with a good ability to keep the ball in the yard.

What are my weaknesses?

In the words of a great philosopher – “Control, control, you must learn control!” Even in the minors, his walk rate was unacceptably high, hovering between 4 and 5 per 9 innings; in his major league appearances, it’s been even worse – and has usually resulted in leaving the ball up, with said ball frequently getting hit very, very hard.

What is my future with the Astros?

Short. Very short.

2016 stats (major league):

9 G, 8 IP, 15 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 0-0

9.00 ERA, 2.38 WHIP, .395/.452/.526 BAA/OBP/SLG

What is my projected 2017 performance?

PECOTA says: 25 G, 26 IP, 26 H, 12 BB, 24 K, 4.35 ERA

ZIPS says: 59 G, 67 IP, 65 H, 33 BB, 71 K, 4.57 ERA

MMWAG says: Nothing. I expect him to be designated for assignment by the end of spring training and claimed by someone desperate for a lefty.

Who else would I remind you of?

Literally hundreds of quad-A lefties that got repeated cups of coffee but who never stuck.

Welcome to OWA: 40 for 40

Posted on February 22, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Howdy, Astros faithful. And even the faithless – welcome.

2017 sets up as a big year. I say that figuratively, because surely nobody has jinxed this by making any premature predic…

… furk.

Well – big, empty predictions deserve big, empty gestures. Which is all a way of saying:

Welcome to OWA: 40 for 40.

40 for 40?

You’ve heard of this thing, “30 for 30”?

Yeah, the acclaimed ESPN documentary series.

Yeah, this is going to blow that right out of the water. Listen to this: 40… for… 40.

Right, yes, I think I see where this is going.

Think about it, man. You log onto the Internet, you see “30 for 30” sitting there, and there’s “40 for 40” sitting, well, not right beside it, but in some similar sort of place.

40’s the key number here. 40 days, 40 nights. The 40/40 club. And, of course: the 40 man roster.

That’s right, intrepid reader, over the 40 days between now and Opening Day, you’re getting a preview of every player on the Astros’ 40 man roster.

What sort of value you will you, a novice writer with no experience in organized baseball, bring to me, an insanely passionate Astros fan paying absolutely nothing for this content?

Only in the (soon to be) acclaimed “OWA: 40 for 40” series will you get the answers to burning questions for every Astros player such as:

Who am I?
Why am I here?
How did I get here?
What are my strengths and weaknesses?
What is my future with the Astros?
What is my projected 2017 performance?

In this last category, you’ll see all the great projection systems:

PECOTA, by Baseball Prospectus
ZIPS, by FanGraphs
MMWAG, by MusicMan’s Wild Ass Guesses

So bring in all of your favorite animals, male and female, because we’re setting sail for the next 40 days to see just what kind of club Mission Control has assembled.

DM Archives #12: Little Jenny On The High Wire

Posted on October 21, 2016 by Dark Star in Columnistas, Dark Matter, Featured

One of the interesting things about getting older, and taking a longer view of things, is that things that were once just an aspect or component of one’s life now become memories.

For years and years, these stories I tell weren’t stories at all. They were a part of my life. It wasn’t until I got older and began to look back a little and reflect, that they kind of disengaged from myself. They became separate from me; they became something to think about and mull over and perhaps ascribe some deeper meaning to. Whereas before, they were just one part of a busy, emerging life story.Read More

DM Archives #11: Listen To The Lion

Posted on September 20, 2016 by Dark Star in Columnistas, Dark Matter, Featured

It is sometimes hard for me now to go back and read the stuff that I have written over the years about my cousin, Fred. His fifties have not been kind to him. Serious back problems, and then a botched knee-replacement surgery. Disability, and early retirement.

We still speak occasionally, but our lives have taken us separately where they will. Fred lives alone now, in a small apartment in Angleton, League City, one of those. Spends his days and evenings, I gather, mostly drinking beer and playing on the computer. He doesn’t even get out anymore, much at all.

He was so vibrant in his prime. With the heart and soul of a lion. One of the reasons I liked being around him so much, back then, was it sort of made me feel that way, too. We were so fucking awesome when we were young. When I think of Fred now, it mostly makes me sad.

Of course, I am writing this having just had one hip replaced and getting ready to have the same done to the other. My future is brighter than Fred’s, but I am not getting any younger, either. The days of leonine glory are long gone, and they are not coming back, ever. I know that.Read More

DM Archives #10: Under The Big Black Sun

Posted on August 5, 2016 by Dark Star in Columnistas, Dark Matter, Featured

I am pretty ambivalent about this installment from the archives. It is from 4-5 years ago, and I do not consider it to be very well-written, or polished in any way. There are incomplete themes, ideas not fleshed out, and the whole thing has no point, really.

On the other hand, it has a sort of jagged quality (to me) that pretty closely captures the way I was feeling at the time, I am pretty sure. Jagged and dark and uncertain. I like that. That is a hard thing to write about if one sets out to do it, which I am pretty sure was not what I was doing here. I think I have held onto it – and republished it here – mainly for that reason.

Just another sordid little story, an event or convergence of events along the way … from someone who went three roughly three-quarters of his life up to this point without a fucking clue, but still turned out all right. Well, I’d like to think so, anyway.

That’s something.Read More

Astros @ Tigers – Don’t Drink the Water

Posted on July 29, 2016 by Waldo in Series Previews

SERIES PREVIEW

Astros @ Tigers

July 29-31, 2016

Friday, July 29 – 6:10pm CDT
Collin McHugh (7-6, 4.18) vs. Matt Boyd (1-2, 4.63)

McHugh continues his nice improvement. Since his short start in Arlington he has six quality starts out of seven starts, the seventh start falling just one out short of qualifying. He lasted 5.1 innings against the Tigers in April, allowing four runs on 10 hits.

Boyd has bounced between AAA and the majors this year and is currently on his third stint with the Tigers so far this season, having been back up since right before the break. His last stint with the big club didn’t end well, with two straight appearances in June allowing six or more earned runs. This one has gone much better, though, with three starts with no more than one earned run given up. He hasn’t worked very deep into games, averaging only five innings per start. The Astros saw him once last year and hung five runs on him in as many innings; Colby hit two homers off of him for a super-sweet 1.000/1.000/4.000 slash line.

Saturday, July 30 – 6:10pm CDT
Mike Fiers (7-4, 4.69) vs. Justin Verlander (10-6, 3.64)

I was wrong about Fiers. After his hissyfit in Oakland I didn’t expect him to bounce back for seven innings of good ball like he did against the Angels. Of course, being spotted an early 8-0 lead has to help quite a bit. Like McHugh, Fiers also faced the Tigers in April and gave up four runs and three bombs in 5.2 innings, but got the win anyway thanks to being in the top 10 in baseball in run support.

After a particularly bad day at the office against Cleveland a few weeks ago – allowing eight runs in 4.2 innings – Verlander has had a nice string of five games, going 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA and working his ERA down below where it was before the start against the Indians. Verlander beat the Astros earlier this year with a bare-minimum quality start, and shut them out for seven innings in 2015.

Sunday, July 31 – 12:10pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (6-10, 4.57) vs. Mike Pelfrey (3-9, 4.98)

This matchup is a repeat of the April 15 game against the Tigers, which the Astros won 1-0.

Keuchel is in the bottom 10 in baseball in run support. Perhaps the best evidence of his lack of run support came in this matchup in April, allowing just five hits over eight shutout innings. Another good data point came on Monday when he turned in another great outing against the Yanks but got only a leadoff home run in support of his effort.

Pelfrey is also in the bottom 10 in something. Actually, he’s MLB-worst in something: WHIP, with 1.75, and leads the second-worst by over a tenth of a point. He’s MLB-worst in something else, too: K/BB ratio, with 45 walks against just 48 K’s. Only Martin Perez is anywhere close to that. Pelfrey is still capable of pitching a good game, but this is a different team than the one that scored just one run on him in April, so I’m expecting the results to be different this weekend.

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