Who Am I?

Reymin Guduan

(“goo-DWON”)

LHP

Age: 24

Height: 6′ 4″

Weight: 205

Throws left, Bats left

How did I get here?

Signed by Houston as a 17 year old international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in September 2009. Added to the 40 man roster in November 2016; would have otherwise become a minor league free agent. Three option years remaining.

Why am I here?

“In case of emergency, break glass for left-handed reliever.”

What are my strengths?

Other than left-handedness? Great velocity – he has racked up strikeouts at every level. Even while imploding spectacularly at Fresno in 2016, he was striking out better than a hitter per inning.

What are my weaknesses?

He can’t find the strike zone with a map and a flashlight. Walks almost a batter per inning.

What is my future with the Astros?

Unless he’s suddenly found to be a candidate for Lasik? He might get a cup of coffee, but otherwise he’s DFA fodder as soon as they need the roster space.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

Who else would I remind you of?

A left-handed Ricky Vaughn.

Who Am I?

Luke Gregerson

RHP

Age: 32

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 205

Throws right, Bats left

(Note: I don’t trust pitchers who bat from the other side of the plate. It disrupts the natural order of things.)

How did I get here?

Originally drafted by St. Louis in the 28th round in 2006. Traded to San Diego in March 2009 as the PTBNL in the Mark Worrell-Khalil Greene trade. Traded by San Diego to Oakland for Seth Smith in 2013. Signed with Houston in December 2014 as a free agent.

Contract status: Gregerson is in the final year of a 3 year contract, earning $6.25M this season, and is eligible for free agency after the season.

Why am I here?

Gregerson’s first job is to take care of the 8th inning. His other job is to back up Giles in case of implosion.

What are my strengths?

First and foremost, consistency. For relievers, I think WHIP is a pretty good measuring stick – you really want to focus on how they’re keeping runners off the base paths (it helps filter out the situational nature of the role). Starting in 2012, Gregerson has posted WHIPs of: 1.09, 1.01, 1.01, 0.95, 0.97. You know what you’re getting from the guy.

Second, Gregerson’s control helps him get ahead in the count and set up a plus slider as an out pitch. It’s not in the same league as Giles, but 90% of the time, it works every time.

What are my weaknesses?

Gregerson has below average velocity, whether he throws the two-finger or four-finger version of the fastball. He rarely breaks 90 MPH. It’s basically all that’s prevented him from becoming an elite closer.

What is my future with the Astros?

I can’t see him re-signing after this contract, not with so many other options in the pen. The question then becomes whether you dangle him as a trade piece in a larger deal. I don’t think that we’ll happen – they’ll ride with him to (knocks on wood, throws salt, sacrifices rum to Jobu) the playoffs, and then let him walk.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

Who else would I remind you of?

The low velocity makes him hard to place among relievers. I don’t know – did Dave Smith have a big heater?

Who Am I?

Ken Giles

RHP

Age: 26

Height: 6′ 2″

Weight: 205

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Originally drafted by Philadelphia in the 7th round in 2011. Traded to Houston, along with Jonathan Arauz, for Mark Appel, Harlod Arauz, Thomas Eshelman, Brett Oberholtzer, and Vince Velasquez in December 2015.

Contract status: becomes arbitration eligible in 2018. Eligible for free agency in 2021.

Why am I here?

Don’t overthink this one. The ninth inning belongs to Giles unless something drastic happens.

What are my strengths?

DAT SLIDER. With all due respect to Billy Wagner and Brad Lidge, Giles possesses potentially the best out pitch of any Astro reliever. Giles threw the slider 529 times last year, recording 181 swing-and-misses vs. only 12 hits. Hitters had a .093 average and .186 SLG against the slider. It became a very simple process: if Giles got ahead in the count, the at-bat was over. Hitters went .157/.164/.276 once behind in the count against Giles.

What are my weaknesses?

Everything other than the above. When the batter got ahead in the count, they went .362/.581/.723 against Giles. Essentially, if you could get ball one, you turned into Barry Bonds against him.

Oh, but you didn’t always have to get to ball one: 23 hitters made contact on the first pitch against Giles. They went 13-22, plus one sacrifice. That’s a .591 average and a .773 SLG on first-pitch swinging. MAYBE the young flamethrower was a little predictable?

How do we diagnose this further?

When Giles debuted in 2014, hitters posted a .222 BAA and .333 SLG off his fastball.

In 2015, that went to a .250 BAA and a .321 SLG.

Upon joining the Astros for 2016: .378 BAA and .622 SLG.

The velocity was up a tick from 2016. So either we’re looking at some historical-levels of bad luck, a problem with location, or your classic case of tipping pitches.

What is my future with the Astros?

It’s put up or shut up time. If Giles delivers the way I expect, he’s your closer for at least 3 more seasons. If not… that 2018 arbitration starts to look reeeeeal interesting.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

Before we get there, let’s talk about 2016.

What if I told you…

… that Giles posted a 3.12 ERA over 57.2 innings, allowing a .210/.278/.348 slash line? I mean, that’s not perfection, but that’s a pretty darn good season from a reliever, right?

Because that’s what Giles did in 2016 – except for April. As for that April, well, the four worst scenarios for a newly acquired pitcher would have to be:

1. Killed by batted ball (Herb Score)
2. Broken arm requiring amputation (Dave Dravecky)
3. Career-ending case of the yips (Rick Ankiel) (shut up, yes, I know he came back as a hitter. I saw it.)
4. Ken Giles’ April 2016.

Who else would I remind you of?

Brad Lidge. I think they even look slightly similar. I think it’s the lousy facial hair.

I expect peak-Brad Lidge things from Giles in 2017.

Who Am I?

Mike Fiers 

RHP

Age: 31

Height: 6’2″

Weight: 200

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Originally drafted by Milwaukee in the 22nd round in 2009. Traded to Houston with Carlos Gomez in exchange for Josh Vader, Brett Phillips, Adrian Houser, and Domingo Santana. Let’s not think too much about this trade.

Contract Status: 

Avoided arbitration, agreeing to a one year deal for $3.45 million. Not eligible for free agency until 2020.

Why am I here?

Fiers is holding down the back of the rotation until some of the younger, more talented guys are ready. Highly likely to start the season as the #5 starter.

What are my strengths?

Fiers mixes an assortment of pitches – cutter, change, the occasional slider – that don’t get hit too hard, and exhibits good control. He’s capable of soaking up innings.

What are my weaknesses?

If he gets behind in the count, he is – how to put this delicately? – completely screwed. When behind in the count last year, hitters went .296/.422/.527 off him. After 2-0, that went up to .333/.488/.621. He gave up a .653 slugging percentage on his fastball. If he throws 2 balls, an intentional walk becomes a very attractive option.

What is my future with the Astros?

I’ll be surprised if Fiers ends the season with the Astros. With Martes, Rodgers, and Musgrove waiting in the wings, and Devenski and Feliz presenting much better long-man options in the pen, I see a trade in Mr. Fiers’ future.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

Who else would I remind you of?

A back end starter with no fastball to speak of, but a no hitter on his resume? Hey there, Bud Smith!

Who Am I?

Michael Feliz

RHP

Age: 23

Height: 6′ 4″

Weight: 230

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Signed by the Astros as an international free agent in 2010, after his original contract with Oakland was voided.

Contract status: not arbitration eligible until 2019

Why am I here?

The hope, as Feliz came up through the minors, was that he would emerge as a frontline starter. At this point, he looks like a late inning reliever. His 2017 role will be somewhat similar to Devenski’s, but with a greater emphasis on short appearances where a strikeout is needed.

What are my strengths?

Feliz is a 2-pitch pitcher, but those 2 pitches are plus. His fastball routinely sits at 98, and his slider has been a revelation – he allowed only a .165 batting average off the slider last year. He’s big, sturdy, has a repeatable motion – basically, your classic flamethrower stuff.

What are my weaknesses?

First and foremost – a lack of control. This is evidenced not so much by walks – 22 in 65 IP isn’t atrocious, even if hardly the stuff of shutdown closers. No, the problem is that he too frequently leaves the ball up in the zone. A full 30% of his pitches were up in the zone, and while he could get away with it against righties with his velocity, left handed hitters absolutely crushed those balls, which led to those 10 home runs.

Apart from that? The lack of a third pitch means he has no realistic road to the rotation.

What is my future with the Astros?

It’s easy to see Feliz forming a late-game hammer combo with Giles. It’s also easy to see him failing to master his control struggles and never becoming more than an average middle reliever. His velocity will keep him around for quite a while.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

Who else would I remind you of?

God, I hate saying it, because I genuinely want Feliz to succeed. But I get more than a whiff of Kyle Farnsworth from him.

Who Am I?

Chris Devenski

RHP

Age: 26

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 210

Throws right, Bats right

How did I get here?

Originally drafted in the 25th round of the 2011 draft by the White Sox. Sent to Houston on August 3, 2012 as the player to be named later in addition to Matt Heidenreich and Blair Walters for Brett Myers.

Contract status: not eligible for arbitration until 2019

Why am I here?

Chris Devenski may single-handedly resurrect the role of the swingman. If that’s not too much pressure to put on a guy with one year of experience. He can give you multiple innings from the pen, he can give you a spot start when you need it, he can put out a late inning fire. By the end of 2017, Chris Devenski Facts may replace Chuck Norris Facts.

What are my strengths?

Devo has a wicked, wicked change up. In 2016, he threw 498 changeups total, allowing only 29 hits off it, and only a .240 SLG against the pitch. When he keeps hitters off balance – and that pitch allows him to – they rarely square up. His slider is an effective third pitch, especially when thrown low and away to right handed hitters late in the count.

What are my weaknesses?

His fastball is league-average at best. Even another tick or two on it would allow him to further separate from that change, or maintain his velocity enough to become an effective starter.

What is my future with the Astros?

Bullpen mainstay for years to come… UNLESS a rotation injury gives him a shot that he just doesn’t relinquish. I don’t see that happening; he doesn’t quite have the heat for that third trip through the lineup, and he gives so much value in the swingman role I don’t think AJ will give that up easily.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

Who else would I remind you of?

How about Ramiro Mendoza on those late-90s Yankees teams? Not quite a starter, not quite a closer… but put him in that swingman spot?

Parting thoughts

Hypotheticals can be fun when they’re removed from reality:

• If you had three wishes, what would you wish for?
• Which of the Friends would you actually want a relationship with?
• Who would win a fight, Batman or Superman? (Wait… that was always a dumb question. And and even dumber movie.)

But the hypotheticals that are more “what if” in nature – what historians call “counterfactuals” – those typically have an element of pain:

• What if JFK had survived, and pulled the US out of Vietnam?
• What if the Rockets had accepted Portland’s trade offer of Clyde Drexler and the #2 overall pick for Ralph Sampson… thus putting Hakeem, Clyde, and Michael Jordan on the same team?
• What if the Astros had listened to their scouts and selected Derek Jeter instead of Phil Nevin?

Well, looking back on Devenski’s performance last year brought one more of the latter to mind, and I just can’t quite shake it:

What if the 2015 Astros had that version of Chris Devenski in the bullpen?