I think this is the case for all of modern era baseball -- hyperinflation with the perceived stars and then you find their baggage.
But to make the counter argument, only for posterity/boredom, is that his last 4 years of productivity have been very very good. Averages are not a great indicator and I'm sure JLuhn's guys have analytics out the wazoo but I'll take a left handed power hitter who will get 30+ HRs, 90 RBIs, and shit ton of walks and .500% SLG with a short porch in RF.
The money is less relevant to me than what Jeff Luhnow thinks about BH being the final piece of the offensive puzzle --- its worth the price if we win and not if we do not.
Does he give us a better shot to win against the Yanks, Sox, and National League teams? Comparatively, this is an unequivocal yes. Not sure if he'll want the contract we are offering and not sure how this will impact Springer or Correa.
I take your point about good not great. Its sound. However, we are not too far off from the promise land again --- and an upgrade in our DH/1B/RF positions are definitely in order. And I would hate to be a pitcher who has to face this:
1. Springer Dinger
2. Altuve
3. Harper
4. Bregman
5. Brantley
6. Correa
7. Catcher - hopefully JT
8. Gurriel
9. Marisnick/Kemp
To go with the front end of our staff, I think this might be the possible Astros team of all time if JLuhn can pull it off.
Then again, I am optimist!
While I agree that would be a scary lineup and his "average" season looks awesome. His numbers are skewed by his 2015 which by advanced numbers is one of the best seasons of all time. He's only hit 30 homers twice, 90 RBI twice(same seasons), slugged .500 twice, .400 OPS twice. He's a really good player. But is he good enough to say bye bye to Springer, Cole, Correa and possibly Bregman? I don't think so. Bregman is the only of those 4 I believe you can keep long term if Harper is on the books.
I know advanced stats are not talked about too much on this site but here is two examples of Harper being very inconsistent.
OPS+(measures a players OPS and compares it to league average and adjust for ballpark, 100 is league average)
Harpers numbers by season
118, 133, 111, 198(2015), 114, 156, 133
2 great, 2 really good, and 3 slightly above league average seasons at the plate.
Here's bWAR to factor in some defense
5.2, 3.7, 1.1, 10, 1.5, 4.7, 1.3
In WAR for those who don't know a starting caliber player is expected to provide 2+ WAR, all stars provide 5+ and MVPs 8+
So in 3 of the last 5 seasons, Harper has been a backup level producer.
For refrence Bregman was "worth" 6.9 WAR last season, Altuve was "worth" 8.3 in 2017.
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