Astros @ Royals – It Should Be Different This Time

Posted on June 5, 2017 by Waldo in Series Previews

ASTROS @ ROYALS
June 5-8, 2017

It’s been a hell of a week.

What happened in the last series?

The Astros are 41-16. This enchubbens me. (NOTE: Google Docs spellcheck has no problem with the word “enchubbens”. This, too, enchubbens me.)

As much as the Astros have done this season, the Royals (24-31) have something the Astros don’t: a winning record against the Indians. KC has taken four of six from the Tribe in their last nine games and are the only other team besides the Indians to win a series against the Astros this year. Of course, that was back before the Houston offense really got out of first gear. The Royals have one of the most anemic offenses in baseball: they are the only team that has scored fewer than 200 runs and are rock bottom in the AL in average, OBP, slugging, and walks. The pitching has been a little better, mostly thanks to the 8th-best rotation ERA in baseball. That’s no small feat considering they’ve had to deal with injuries (Danny Duffy and Nate Karns are on the DL; Ian Kennedy had some DL time in May) and the death of Yordano Ventura.

Schedule/Probables

Monday, June 5 – 7:15pm CDT
Mike Fiers (2-2, 4.96) vs. Ian Kennedy (0-5, 5.12)

Fiers tossed his second of two May quality starts against the Twins, striking out eight and allowing NO HOME RUNS for the first time this season. He also pitched a quality start against the Royals in April but got no run support.

That could change this time around. Kennedy closed the month of April with a 2.30 ERA but sported an 11.30 ERA in May, allowing 4+ earned runs in each start and a DL stint sandwiched in between. He did really well against the Astros in two starts last year (2-0, 1.29). However, Altuve, Aoki, Beltran, Gattis, and McCann all have a .900+ OPS against Kennedy.

Tuesday, June 6 – 7:15pm CDT
David Paulino (0-0, 4.50) vs. TBD/Jake Junis (1-0, 2.70)

Paulino did an admirable job filling in for Musgrove in Minneapolis, allowing two runs in four innings while punching out eight.

The Royals haven’t yet announced a starter for Tuesday’s game, and it looks like they’re using their off day last Thursday to rearrange their rotation a bit. As such it’s been hard to nail down who they might use, but the best guess I’ve seen so far may be Jake Junis. Junis made his MLB debut in April and made a couple of relief appearances before a spot start against the Twins. Consensus seems to have his ceiling as a back-of-rotation guy, with low-90s velocity and decent command of his offspeed stuff.

I suppose there’s also a chance that Nate Karns comes off the DL and pitches this game, but I haven’t seen any speculation to that effect – only that he was eligible to come off the DL on 5/31 and wouldn’t miss more than 1-2 starts.

Wednesday, June 7 – 7:15pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (9-0, 1.67) vs. Jason Vargas (7-3, 2.08)

Keuchel’s seven-inning, one-run performance against the Royals in April is one of his two no-decisions for the year. Thanks Gerry Obama Gregerson.

Duffy may be considered the Royals’ ace but Vargas has been their best starter this season. After making just 12 starts in 2015 and 2016 combined he’s having the best season of his career. Nearly half of his 11 starts were shutouts and he routinely works into the 6th inning and beyond (including a complete game shutout of the Indians last week). One of his many quality starts came against the Astros in April, allowing one run over six innings.

Thursday, June 8 – 7:15pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (6-1, 2.71) vs. Jason Hammel (2-6, 5.93)

The Rangers (and the Astros defense) made McCullers work too hard to qualify for the win on Saturday, but he still racked up eight strikeouts. His seven-inning, three-run game against the Royals prevented a sweep and was the first of two 10 K games for him this year.

The Royals are 2-9 when Hammel is on the hill. The two wins came in quality starts against the Indians. The losses are a combination of a lack of run support (losing 2-1 to the Giants, 3-0 to the Yankees) and some less-than-good pitching (e.g. 6 ER on 13 hits allowed to the Rays). He has little meaningful experience against the modern-day Astros: just a 5.50 ERA in three starts against them when he was with the A’s in 2014.

May 2017 Post-Mortem

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Waldo in Uncategorized

PITCHING

Starting Rotation: A-

It feels to me like the rotation took three steps forward and maybe 1-1½ steps backward. Keuchel’s May numbers are inflated largely because of that big 9th inning in Anaheim, and aside from that and missing one start he was usually excellent. McCullers was an absolute monster on the mound, allowing just four earned runs in the entire month. Morton was slightly improved over April, although his walks almost doubled. Peacock showed some promise with 16 K’s in his two starts, and was cruising in Minneapolis until he ran into a buzzsaw in the 5th inning. Overall, Astros starters allowed two earned runs or less in 19 of 29 games. While the team didn’t win all of those games, more often than not the starters did a really good job of setting the table for a W.

Musgrove was basically the same pitcher in May that he was in April, with nearly identical numbers across the board.

Although it may not have felt like it at times, Fiers was actually slightly improved in May, throwing two quality starts and nudging his ERA under 5 for the first time since his first start of the season. He allowed two more home runs than he did in April (albeit in two more starts) and nearly doubled his strikeouts. If he can get down to, and hover in, the 4.50-4.75 range – basically averaging a minimum quality start – I think the Astros would happily take that every five days.

The problem is that nothing happens in a vacuum, and the injuries to Morton (likely prolonged) and Musgrove (hopefully minor and non-recurring) put additional pressure on Fiers, to say nothing of the arms that will be taking Morton’s and Musgrove’s places. The team’s success to this point has been fantastic and they have built themselves a nice cushion, but even with a generally light June schedule (see below) it remains to be seen whether this level of success is sustainable when Fiers is effectively your #3. And while we can cling to the hope that McHugh and Morton can eventually come back and contribute at a #3-#4 level, their returns – much less that level of performance – are hardly guaranteed.

If I were Jeff Luhnow I’d be keeping my cell phone charged.

Bullpen: A-

The Astros got some really good contributions from the bullpen in the month of May. Giles, Harris, Peacock, Feliz, and Hoyt all had pretty good months with only one or two mostly inconsequential bumps in the road for each. Unfortunately for Devenski, his bumps in the road were game-changers, taking two losses and a blown save. Harris, Giles, and Devenski have combined for just six innings since May 25.

Sipp improved quite a bit, although 34 of the 36 batters he faced were in low leverage situations. Gregerson’s ERA was mostly skewed by his bad outings against the Rangers; he only allowed two runs for the rest of the month, although, like Sipp, many of the batters he faced were in low leverage situations.

Overall: A-

The Astros have climbed from 3rd to 2nd in ERA in MLB, although the team ERA for the season went up just a couple of notches (3.37 to 3.49). In the month of May they pitched three shutouts, led the majors in strikeouts (299) and saves (14), and are in the top 5 or better in many other categories. To quote myself from April’s post-mortem, “It’s been a pretty good month.” Again.

OFFENSE: A+

I really don’t see any other grade to give here.

The Astros scored a whopping 180 runs in May, 21 more than the closest team and 68 more than they scored in April. Marwin and Correa went on an absolute tear. Altuve didn’t do too badly for himself either. Seven regulars topped an .800 OPS for the month and Beltran at .795 narrowly missed being the 8th. Only Aoki and Gurriel had what could be considered “bad” months.

The Astros grounded into ten fewer double plays than in April, allowing several other teams to catch up to them. Boston is now MLB’s worst in that department with 59 (Astros have 58), and they have some company not far behind.

DEFENSE: B+

Not much new to write here this month. The outfield defense is up to ten assists on the year. The infield is still prone to the occasional head-scratcher but is solid overall. They gunned down six runners on the basepaths (three more than in April) which is fairly average for the month.

I remain unconvinced about defensive statistics, as I refuse to believe the Astros are the 6th-worst defense in baseball. When your left fielders lead MLB in assists at that position (7), yet all of your left fielders have a negative DEF, something is terribly wrong.

OVERALL: A

Houston went 22-7 in May, a blistering .759 win percentage that is tops in baseball for the month and the best month in Astros history. This fact is made even more impressive considering that a good chunk of it was done against contending teams (12-2 against the Yankees, Tigers, Orioles, and Twins). At 38-16 they own baseball’s best record and a double-digit lead in the AL West. Their 103-win pace from April has improved to 114 wins, an end-of-May pace that has not been accomplished since the 2001 Mariners, who went on to win 117 games. Getting swept by the Indians at home is maybe the only blemish on what was an otherwise outstanding month of baseball, and the only thing preventing me from giving an A+.

However, I don’t think I’m overstating things when I say that the health and performance of the starting rotation beyond Keuchel and McCullers is a huge concern for the team’s postseason prospects and beyond.

The next 60 days will be very interesting to watch, both on the field and in the transaction list.

LOOKING AHEAD TO JUNE

After spending much of May playing teams outside their division, June brings a return to many AL West opponents: they get the Rangers for six games, the A’s for seven, and three apiece against the Angels and Mariners. Thus far Houston has thrashed its division foes to the tune of a 17-6 record with a +41 run differential. They also get four games against the Royals, who have (at the time of this writing) the worst record in the AL.

The Red Sox also come to town for a three-game set. Except for a series with the Yankees that starts on June 30, the Sawks are the only team currently over .500 the Astros will see in June.

Astros at Rangers, June 2-4, 2017

Posted on June 1, 2017 by MusicMan in News, Series Previews

There has been much discussion lately of the proper approach to the Baseball Gods (BBGs). Let us be clear: one’s attitude toward the BBGs must always default to humility, trepidation, and respect.

With that being said: Folks… enjoy this.

Yes, there are mistakes made. No, not every single game will be a win. Of course, every team finds a whipping boy (hi, Mike Fiers!) But the bigger picture is that this team is enjoying a run that we haven’t seen since the late summer of 2005 – and that’s about right; if you’re lucky, you get to experience this kind of baseball maybe once a decade.

Speaking from a personal place – this run could not come at a better time. My son is 7, and turning 8 this summer. That’s a great age, and for me (and, I am guessing, for many of you readers), that is the age when you really start coming to understand baseball – how the game works, what you should be watching, and maybe even how much one (or both) of your parents love it. So when you have a special run (or BBGs willing, a special season) come a long at that perfect age when you could absolutely fall in love with the sport… well, you just thank your lucky stars, and you enjoy the ride.

What happened in the last series?

The Astros set a franchise record for series of any length by scoring 40 runs in only 3 games. Poor Twins… they averaged scoring over 5 runs per game, and still managed to lose by 8 runs a game.

The Rangers dropped 2 of 3 at home to the Rays, as their bullpen continues to make Minnesota’s look like the Nasty Boys reborn.

Schedule/Matchups

Friday, June 2 – 7:10 PM CDT

Keuchel (8-0, 1.81) at Darvish (5-3, 2.97)

Don’t blink, or you could miss this one; it could easily finish in under 2 hours. You know the deal with Darvish. He owns the Astros. Current Astros are only 25/120 (.208) with 38 strikeouts against Yu. Springer has somehow managed 5/12 with 2 HR, but the rest of the team… yikes. The Astros missed Yu last time around.

Fortunately, the Rangers aren’t much better against Keuchel. Current Rangers are 57/242 (.236) with 50 K and only 3 HR for Keuchel’s career. Beltre and Napoli have been decent, but the Bearded One has kept Odor in his place, at 2 for 25 with 6 strikeouts. Keuchel’s turn did not come up in the earlier series this year.

Saturday, June 3 – 6:15 PM CDT

McCullers (6-1, 2.48) at Cashner (2-4, 2.92)

LMJ has not found success against the Rangers; they are 19/55 (.345) with 3 HR against the youngster. Andrus has gone 4/8, and Napoli 5/8 (with 2 HR)… but again, Odor is only 2/9 with 2 strikeouts. McCullers seems to have figured out how to pitch on the road, so let us hope that he overcomes his Rangers issues as well. McCullers did go 6 1/3 with 6 hits and 2 runs allowed in his first start against Texas this year.

Cashner has pitched well but with zero run support. Current Astros sport a 15/61 (.246) line with no homers against Cashner. Aoki (5/16) and McCann (3/8) have found success, so look for Hinch to stack all the lefties he can for this lineup. Cashner pitched into the 7th, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) and taking the loss in a 3-0 Astros win on May 1.

Sunday, June 4 – 2:05 PM CDT

Peacock (2-0, 2.13) at Perez (2-5, 4.19)

I thought the Rangers played Sunday nights because they couldn’t figure out how roofs or air conditioning work?

Anyways, the Rangers have hit Peacock pretty hard, with a 21/65 (.323) line that includes 4 homers. On the other hand, they’ve had a .395 BABIP, so there does seem to be a fair bit of luck involved, and Peacock is looking better this year. Look out for Beltre (7/15, 3 HR) and Odor (4/7, 1 HR). Peacock threw 2 innings of 1 run relief earlier this season against Texas.

The Astros will flip to their right handed lineup for the lefty Perez, who holds a 39/147 (.265) line against current Astros – again, no homers in the bunch. Altuve has gone 10/27 (.370) with 6 doubles, and Gattis has a 7/16 (.438) mark with a triple. Also look for Marisnick who has gone 5/14 with 3 doubles. The Astros did not face Perez in the first series.

Astros @ Twins – Tell Him About the Twinkies

Posted on May 29, 2017 by Waldo in Series Previews

ASTROS @ TWINS
May 29-31, 2017

My dad is a veteran, drafted away from his white-collar job to join the Army in the latter years of Vietnam. He didn’t want to join the military – he says the day the letter came in the mail was one of the worst days of his life – and lucked out with one deferment, but his number eventually came up. Being in the Army is an indelible part of his life: my oldest sister was born on base at Fort Bliss.

Dad doesn’t see himself as a veteran so he doesn’t talk about it much, although we have heard some stories. He told us about how he was given advice to blend into the crowd and not stand out (good or bad), but was randomly chosen to be a squad leader within a half-hour of reporting for duty. He also had strep throat and a 103F fever during basic training but didn’t dare tell anyone about it. He heard the phrase “your ass is grass and I’m a lawnmower” for the first time from his drill sergeant.

Fortunately, he was never shipped overseas, got transferred to an electronics unit, and was eventually honorably discharged as the war drew down. Dad was one of the lucky ones, but many haven’t been so lucky. A friend of mine died while serving in the Middle East, and I have other friends in and out of the military who know plenty of others who died while serving this country.

May we never forget those who make the ultimate sacrifice so that we can bitch about baseball from behind our keyboards.

What happened in the last series?

The Astros (35-16) capped off a 6-4 homestand by sweeping the Orioles and stretching their division lead to ten games. Charlie Morton now stands to miss significant time with a lat strain, which should only increase the pressure on Luhnow to trade for some starting pitching.

The Twins (26-20) are baseball’s early worst-to-first story, leading their division less than a year removed from a 103-loss season. They’re a fairly unspectacular bunch: they have a +1 run differential and are pretty average in many pitching and offensive categories. They kind of resemble the early 2015 Astros: great on the road (14-5), not so great at home (12-15).

Schedule/Probables

In the interest of time and an assortment of meat currently on my grill, I’m only going to hit on the Twins pitchers here (NTTAWWT).

Monday, May 29 – 1:10pm CDT
Brad Peacock (2-0, 0.87) vs. Ervin Santana (7-2, 1.80)

Santana has been eating innings with the best of them (no starts of less than six innings), and aside from a couple of meh starts against the BoSox and Rockies he has looked every bit the part of an ace. He has not faced the Astros since 2015, when he went 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and racked up 21 strikeouts.

Tuesday, May 30 – 7:10pm CDT
Mike Fiers (1-2, 5.21) vs. Jose Berrios (3-0, 1.66)

After a 2016 season in which he clocked an 8+ ERA, Berrios has made three starts, all of them of the quality variety. He went 1-1 with an 8.59 ERA against Houston last season.

Wednesday, May 31 – 12:10pm CDT
Joe Musgrove (4-4, 4.89) vs. Hector Santiago (4-4, 4.31)

Santiago is almost always good for about three runs a start this year. Last year he was 0-1 against the Astros with a 3.86 ERA.

Orioles @ Astros – Witty Title Lost in the Shuffle

Posted on May 26, 2017 by Waldo in Series Previews

ORIOLES @ ASTROS
May 26-28, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Orioles (25-20) just got swept by the Twins at home and have lost nine of their last 12. They’re not particularly good on the road, with a 10-13 record away from Camden Yards.

Meanwhile, the Astros (32-16) were able to wash out a little bit of the bad taste from the Indians sweep, taking three of four from the Tigers in sometimes-ugly fashion.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, May 26 – 7:10pm CDT
Kevin Gausman (2-3, 6.65) vs. Joe Musgrove (3-4, 5.63)

More like Kevin Gascan, amirite??? Gausman is prone to getting lit up, with a WHIP of 1.86 and having had several starts where he’s allowed 4-5 runs or more. He’s done better of late, though, with quality starts against the Blue Jays and Nationals. He had a 6.17 ERA against the Astros last season despite racking up 15 K’s in two starts.

Musgrove would almost certainly like to have back his disastrous start against the Indians. The O’s may not be the best team to rebound against: last year he gave up eight runs in 5.1 innings in Baltimore.

Saturday, May 27 – 6:15pm CDT
Wade Miley (1-2, 2.59) vs. Dallas Keuchel (7-0, 1.84)

Miley has been one of the better Orioles starters this year, at times times able to work deep into games (three starts of seven or more innings). He’s been haunted by allowing walks, though, with five starts where he’s allowed four or more free passes. Only his 49 K’s keep his K:BB ratio anywhere close to respectability. The Astros faced him three times in 2016 and hung a 6.28 ERA on him.

This will be Keuchel’s first start back from the DL, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a relatively low pitch count. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a very effective outing anyway; he pitched eight innings of 2-run ball against the O’s last season.

Sunday, May 28 – 1:10pm CDT
Ubaldo Jimenez (1-2, 7.17) vs. Lance McCullers, Jr. (5-1, 2.43)

Look for the Waldo family behind the Astros bullpen in this one. Or don’t.

Jimenez has been the worst regular starter for Baltimore in 2017. Outside of a relief appearance and a two-hitter he took into the 8th against the Reds, he’s been tagged with four or more earned runs in every other appearance he’s had this year.

McCullers, of course, had a fantastic outing against the Tigers, giving up the only hit in the combined one-hitter on Tuesday. He has been outstanding against the O’s through his short career, with a 2-0 record, 1.29 ERA, and 21(!) strikeouts in two starts.

Tigers @ Astros Series Preview

Posted on May 22, 2017 by Ebby Calvin in Series Previews

TIGERS @ ASTROS SERIES PREVIEW

5/22/17-5/25/17

Right on time.

WHAT HAPPENED LAST SERIES?

Nothing. Let’s assume the Astros swept the Willow Cleveland Wahoos at home and nobody went on the DL for a pinched nerve or concussion. Moving on.

WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THIS SERIES?

The Tigers (21-21) stroll into town with a blackjack in each pocket. The Astros got knocked down last weekend and need to get back up on their feet.

MONDAY, MAY 22

Brad Peacock and The Bullpen will go 9IP, 1H, 0ER. Ausmus is still dreamy. 1-0 Astros. Book it.

TUESDAY, MAY 23 7PM

Zimmerman (4-2) v McCullers Jr. (4-1)

WEDNESDAY, MAY 24 7PM

Norris (2-3) v Morton (5-3)

THURSDAY, MAY 25 7PM

Verlander (4-3) v Fiers (1-2)

INJURY REPORT

ASTROS

Gustave (right forearm, throwing shut down)

Keuchel (pinched nerve in neck, will miss one start)

McCann (concussion)

McHugh (now playing catch)

TIGERS

Adduci (katsaridaphobia)

ASTRO ANAGRAMS

Bang! Relax Me
A Racer’s Color
Oval Jet Use
Abs/Knives
Locators Tent
Bee Noisy. Out.
Cordial, Rad High
Jeff Kent
Harnessed Only
Sibyl’s Peril

BONUS

Bye, Acne Jar!

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ASTROS @ ROYALS June 5-8, 2017

What happened in the last series?

Schedule/Probables

PITCHING

OFFENSE: A+

DEFENSE: B+

OVERALL: A

LOOKING AHEAD TO JUNE

What happened in the last series?

Schedule/Matchups

Friday, June 2 – 7:10 PM CDT

Keuchel (8-0, 1.81) at Darvish (5-3, 2.97)

Saturday, June 3 – 6:15 PM CDT

McCullers (6-1, 2.48) at Cashner (2-4, 2.92)

Sunday, June 4 – 2:05 PM CDT

Peacock (2-0, 2.13) at Perez (2-5, 4.19)

ASTROS @ TWINS May 29-31, 2017

What happened in the last series?

Schedule/Probables

ORIOLES @ ASTROS May 26-28, 2017

What happened in the last series?

Schedule/Probables

ASTROS @ ROYALS
June 5-8, 2017

ASTROS @ TWINS
May 29-31, 2017

ORIOLES @ ASTROS
May 26-28, 2017