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  • Articles posted by MusicMan (Page 2)

40 for 40 Presents: Preston Tucker

Posted on April 1, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

Preston Tucker

Left fielder

Age: 26

Height: 6′ 0″

Weight: 215

Bats left, throws left

How Did I Get Here?

Tucker was Houston’s 7th round pick in 2012, and made his major league debut in May 2015.

Contract status:

This is Tucker’s last option year and he will be eligible for arbitration no earlier than 2019.

Why Am I Here?

Perhaps no player better exemplifies Houston’s rapidly improving depth than Preston Tucker. In 2015, he was a contributor to a playoff team, even if he only made three pinch-hit appearances against the Royals. In 2016, he struggled to make contact, a problem likely associated with a shoulder injury that ultimately ended the season. So one injury and a couple of veteran outfielders later, Tucker is an afterthought – nobody seriously discussed him making the big-league roster this spring; he only made one appearance due to his late recovery from shoulder surgery.

So Tucker is left as depth, fighting with guys like Hernandez and Kemp at AAA for the next call should an outfield injury occur.

What Are My Strengths?

Tucker makes decent contact and hits for plus power. While with the Astros in 2015, he showed a consistent line drive stroke and an ability to hit big-league fastballs.

What Are My Weaknesses?

Tucker is a limited defender, even in Minute Maid’s small left field. And while the power is nice, by late 2015 those big league pitchers were figuring out just how vulnerable to breaking balls he was.

Loves to hit: As indicated, Tucker could handle anything without much break – he hit four-seamers, two-seamers, and sinkers at a .326 clip in 2015, including 13 doubles and 7 homers.

Hates to hit: Anything off speed. In that same span, Tucker hit only .174 against sliders, curves, and changeups. This trend continued in 2016, as he only managed 8 for 56 (.143) against these pitches.

What is my future with the Astros?

Preston Tucker has nothing left to prove in the minors – he’s slugged over .500 in the minors at every level over his 5-year career. All that’s left is for him to get another shot if an injury occurs, and to show that he can make the leap to handling major league pitching on a consistent basis. As his options are running out, this looks like his last chance to show that in Houston, or else we’ll be saying “Hey, remember Kyle Tucker’s brother?” in a couple of years.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016144.164.222.328224800
2016 (AAA)253.283.332.4746583202
PECOTA34.239.297.42371400
ZIPS488.239.289.410105185722
MMWAG92.247.308.4332141100

Who else would I remind you of?

There’s very little similarity in their swings or personality, but the profile of the minor-league slugger who came up during a playoff run and couldn’t ever quite figure out major league pitchers does remind me of Mitch Meluskey.

40 for 40 Presents: George Springer

Posted on April 1, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

George Springer

Outfield

Age: 27

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 215

Bats right, throws right

How Did I Get Here?

Houston made Springer the 11th overall pick of the 2011 draft, and he was called up to the majors on April 15, 2014. (This had absolutely nothing to do with delaying his free agency by a year; no, he clearly needed those last two weeks in the minors.)

Contract status:

Springer agreed to a one year, $3.9M contract this offseason in his first arbitration-eligible year. He will be eligible for free agency after the 2020 season.

Why Am I Here?

Springer will make the move from right field to center this season as the Astros choose to sacrifice some defense for more consistent hitting. He will start the season leading off, and will likely remain there for the foreseeable future.

What Are My Strengths?

Springer is a patient hitter, working deep into counts and drawing a lot of walks – he was 4th in the AL in this category last year. He has power to all fields – of his 29 homers last year, 8 were to center and 10 to right. He has plus speed and was an above-average right fielder; this will hopefully translate to at least average center field play.

What Are My Weaknesses?

Working deep into those counts also results in a TON of strikeouts. 178 K’s is pretty rough to watch from a leadoff hitter.

The other issue was his baserunning. “Caught stealing” is not the category you want to lead the league in, but Springer did exactly that – he was caught 10 times while succeeding only 9.

Here’s a gift for Gary Pettis.

The other elephant in the room is health; last year was the first time Springer made it through a healthy season.

Loves to hit: Leading off the inning. Last year Springer hit .302/.397/.535 when he was the first batter of the inning – that’s a heck of a spark plug throughout a game.

Hates to hit: Springer handled curveballs better than most anyone on the team, but sliders befuddled him. With 124 at bats for sliders and only a .177 BA/.266 SLG, Springer seems to have the “can’t hit ’em, can’t lay off ’em” issue with sliders.

What is my future with the Astros?

Along with Altuve and Correa, Springer represents the core of the Astros for the next several years. I would expect an All-Star appearance or two along the way.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016744.261.359.4571682982910
PECOTA648.253.350.4491432679137
ZIPS590.251.350.4621282676126
MMWAG681.263.361.4791593187119

Who else would I remind you of?

If you added about 20 points of batting average, I think Springer would be a dead ringer for Bobby Abreu.

40 for 40 Presents: Josh Reddick

Posted on March 31, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

Josh Reddick

Corner outfield

Age: 30

Height: 6′ 2″

Weight: 195

Bats left, throws right

How Did I Get Here?

Reddick was originally drafted by Boston in the 17th round of the 2006 draft. He was traded to Oakland, along with Miles Head, for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney in December 2011. After several good seasons in Oakland, he was traded to the Dodgers (along with Rich Hill) for Grant Holmes, Jharel Cotton, and Frankie Montas. (At that point, Reddick’s season fell apart… he posted only a .396 OPS in August.) In November 2016, he signed as a free agent with the Astros.

Contract status:

Reddick signed a 4 year, $52M contract that pays evenly over the life of the contract. This seems like a huge amount for a slightly above-average corner outfielder, but according to the folks over at FanGraphs, who say that $8M per win above replacement is roughly the going rate, he may have come at a slight discount.

Why Am I Here?

Reddick was brought in to stabilize the outfield; expect to see him in right field on most days the good guys face a right handed starting pitcher.

What Are My Strengths?

Reddick has a pretty good eye, and home run strength that isn’t going to rate up there with Gattis or Correa but can definitely hold its own; 15-20 HR is a reasonable expectation. Reddick also had a reputation as a plus defensive outfielder earlier in his career, even winning a Gold Glove in 2012, but that seems to have fallen off in the last couple seasons. Finally, Reddick is slightly above average on the base paths – not a burner by any means, but showing good judgement in when to go for the extra base, and stealing at more than an acceptable rate.

What Are My Weaknesses?

Reddick looks to be prone to long slumps – his power has all but disappeared in the later parts of the season, and as mentioned above, he really cratered with the Dodgers. Also keep an eye on his defense – as mentioned above, that reputation as a plus-level defender in the corners seems to have fallen off, and right field at Minute Maid usually needs a very strong arm.

Loves to hit: Last year, Reddick was feasting on sliders, hitting .314 with a whopping .608 SLG in 51 AB.

Hates to hit: You may have heard the Spring Training reports that Reddick wants to face more left handed pitching.

Last year, Reddick got 104 plate appearances against lefties, and managed only a .155/.212/.155 line. Yes, you saw that right. He didn’t have a single extra base hit against lefties. He should only face lefties in cases of extreme emergency, or extreme blowout.

What is my future with the Astros?

You saw that contract – Reddick is here for a while. And while you’d love to see a $13M player every day, the fact of the matter is that a platoon is necessary for him – if they can work out the roster space, a Teoscar Hernandez platoon may be coming soon to an outfield corner near you.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016 (OAK/LAD)439.281.345.405112103783
PECOTA518.254.319.429119176172
ZIPS477.267.327.444116175972
MMWAG484.261.322.449118196073

Who else would I remind you of?

Bats left, throws right, good eye, decent pop but not outstanding, capable outfielder… all of this screams “Terry Puhl” to me.

40 for 40 Presents: Jake Marisnick

Posted on March 31, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

Jake Marisnick

Outfield. (All of it. No matter where he plays.)

Age: 26

Height: 6′ 4″

Weight: 220 (significantly higher than I would have guessed)

Bats right, throws right

How Did I Get Here?

Marisnick was originally drafted by Toronto in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft. He was traded to Florida/Miami, along with (deep breath)… Henderson Alvarez, Anthony DeSClafani, Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jeff Mathis and Justin Nicolino in exchange for (another deep breath)… Emilio Bonifacio, John Buck, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and Jose Reyes.

(We interrupt this player history to remind you that George Steinbrenner committed actual, real crimes… and was a FAR superior to Joffrey Loria. Loria has to be on the short list for worst owners ever in any sport.)

Marisnick then came to Houston with Martes and Moran in the Jarred Cosart deal of July 2014.

Contract status:

Marisnick’s first arbitration year resulted in a $1.1M contract. He has two option years remaining and will be eligible for free agency in 2021.

Why Am I Here?

Marisnick is not your classic fourth outfielder; Beltran’s remaining ability to man left field fills that spot. No, Marisnick will be almost purely a defensive specialist, and (spring training shuffling aside) he should be in center field any time he is in the game.

What Are My Strengths?

Marisnick is simply outstanding in the outfield. Tampa Bay’s Kevin Kiermaier is, by consensus and by most statistics, the best center fielder in the game – he’s on a historical level of great center field play. Marisnick has a strong argument that he’s the second best center fielder right now. His range is the highlight of this package – there is not a ball hit to center field that you think “well, he’s not getting THAT.” (Offer does not apply to home runs. Some of them.)

Marisnick can also be a highly effective pinch runner.

What Are My Weaknesses?

It seems that each spring, we’re told that Marisnick has changed his mechanics to figure things out at the plate. Thus far, it’s never been true. If he could even give you a .300 OBP, you could argue that his glove makes him an every day player; but .300 is a high aspiration for a guy who has posted .231, . 281, .281, and .257. (His refusal to take pitches is a big part of this; he has only 48 career walks against 282 strikeouts.)

Loves to hit: Go ahead and get this guy some early games. In March and April, Marisnick has posted a .338/.387/.544 slash line. Compare that to a .216/.259/.323 line in every other month, and I don’t know what to tell you… maybe pitchers come into each season taking him for granted.

Hates to hit: Marisnick on pitches up and in makes Craig Biggio look like he destroyed sliders low and away. Average exit velocity on any given ball in play is in the 80-90 MPH range; up and in, Marisnick doesn’t quite average 50 MPH.

What is my future with the Astros?

Marisnick should stay on the roster as the designated defensive wizard until his arbitration clock runs out.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016311.209.257.33160521105
PECOTA221.232.274.36347520104
ZIPS430.230.275.369911039197
MMWAG268.231.261.31155217158

Hey FanGraphs, there’s a bug in ZIPS. There is no conceivable way Jake Marisnick gets to double-digit homers.

Who else would I remind you of?

Look, we’re quite familiar with “this guy is so damn good in the field, if only he could hit a LITTLE bit!” But Marisnick doesn’t quite have Adam Everett’s bat, or his ears, so he doesn’t play every day.

40 for 40 Presents: Tony Kemp

Posted on March 30, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

Tony Kemp

Second base / left field / wherever

Age: 25

Height: 5′ 6″

Weight: 165″

Bats left, throws right

How Did I Get Here?

Kemp was drafted by the Astros in the 5th round of the 2013 draft, and was first called up in May 2016.

Contract status:

Kemp has two option years remaining.

Why Am I Here?

Heck if I know. What makes this organization think that they can call up a second baseman who’s barely five feet tall, whose only appreciable skills are his speed and an ability to make contact, and think that he’ll amount to anything?

OK, so I guess if it works once, you should develop a backup.

What Are My Strengths?

Kemp has shown a plus hit tool in the minors, ranging from .300 to .350 batting average. He also is an eager base stealer, swing around 30 bags per full season.

Kemp is a decent second baseman, but seeing as we already have one of those pretty well entrenched, the Astros have started experimenting with him in left field.

What Are My Weaknesses?

In over 50 games in the majors, absolutely none of the above translated. Kemp barely hit .200, and in 40 times on base, only stole 2 bases.

Also, Kemp went only 10 for 18 stealing bases last year. One does worry that he’s making his way the only way he knows how, but it may be just a little bit more than catchers will allow.

Loves to hit: Kemp was a successful first pitch swinger, hitting .318 on the first pitch.

Hates to hit: Changeups, curveballs, sinkers, sliders… you name it, Kemp couldn’t handle offspeed pitches. He managed only 5 for 41 against all off speed offerings.

What is my future with the Astros?

Kemp will get every opportunity to show that he can adapt to major league pitching. Jose Altuve may not have convinced everyone that miniature second basemen are the new market inefficiency, so teams haven’t exactly demanded Kemp in a trade.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016 (MLB)136.217.296.325261721
2016 (minors)301.306.389.39678224108
PECOTA76.255.325.355181631
ZIPS503.247.317.333110435189
MMWAG70.245.300.325170543

Who else would I remind you of?

Hopefully, a poor man’s Jose Altuve.

40 for 40 Presents: Teoscar Hernandez

Posted on March 29, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

Teoscar Hernandez

Outfielder

Age: 24

Height: 6′ 2″

Weight: 180

Bats right, throws right

How Did I Get Here?

Hernandez signed with the Astros as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2011. He was added to the 40-man roster upon his call up in August 2016.

Contract status:

Hernandez has three full option years remaining.

Why Am I Here?

Hernandez is part of a crowded minor league outfield situation. While the Astros’ team site has him listed as a left fielder, his ability (or lack thereof) to man center field may ultimately determine his fate with the organization.

What Are My Strengths?

Well, Teoscar is unique. Upon his major league debut, Teoscar Hernandez became the first – and thus far, only – Teoscar in the history of major league baseball. So he’s got that going for him, which is nice.

Hernandez – or “Teo” as many affectionately call him – has speed to burn, and absolutely no conscience about stealing a base. In the minors, he’s been good for at least 30 steals per full season, and he stays around a 75% success rate – not great, but good enough to keep running. He has also shown 10-15 HR levels of pop.

What Are My Weaknesses?

While 10-15 HR pop is nice, it typically isn’t a carrying tool at a corner outfield spot. And Hernandez isn’t especially patient – certainly not to the degree that a speedster would need to offset a lack of power.

Between the two, Hernandez could still be fine with the bat as a center fielder. Unfortunately, his 15 games in center field at the major league level could charitably be called “adventurous”. He’s certainly closer to Biggio than Marisnick on the “center field defensive spectrum” at the moment.

Loves to hit: Teo jumped on lefties to the tune of .278/.381/.500 during his major league stint, leading to early questions of whether he would be a good platoon candidate.

Hates to hit: Unsurprisingly for a rookie, Teo struggled behind in the count, managing a meek 3 for 29 when behind.

What is my future with the Astros?

Completely up in the air. Can Springer be an effective center fielder? Can Marisnick really develop as a hitter? Can Hernandez actually play center field without causing cringe-related facial injuries to the fanbase? His potential ranges from “never more than occasional cups of coffee” to “regular center fielder.”

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016 (MLB)112.230.304.4202341102
2016 (minors)558.287.358.42614110573915
PECOTA34.234.287.39281411
ZIPS567.224.279.36311614552111
MMWAG50.200.280.32592631

Who else would I remind you of?

A certain former Astro earned the nickname “Crazy Ivan” for his rather indirect outfield routes, in a nod to an increasingly topical movie:

Russian captains sometime turn suddenly to see if anyone’s behind them. We call it “Crazy Ivan.” The only thing you can do is go dead. Shut everything down and make like a hole in the water.

For his sake, let’s hope Teo doesn’t go on to guest star on a horrible Netflix sitcom sequel/reboot.

 

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