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Astros @ Mariners – Jose Altuve does a good Tim Bogar impression

Posted on April 10, 2017 by Waldo in Series Previews

ASTROS @ MARINERS
April 10-12, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Mariners just got swept in Anaheim, and at 1-6 they stand alone as baseball’s worst team.  Of particular note is Sunday’s game wherein the M’s headed into the bottom of the 9th enjoying a 9-3 lead and a 99.8% win probability.  The Angels sent twelve men to the plate and rallied for seven LOL-inducing (it’s funny when it’s not happening to your team) runs, handing Seattle its second gut-wrenching walk-off defeat in five days.

The Astros narrowly avoided a sweep of their own, overcoming some fairly anemic offensive efforts all weekend that culminated in an extra-inning walk-off walk on Sunday.  The pitching has been characteristically excellent (except for some late-inning demons) and people besides George Springer have started to make significant offensive contributions: McCann, Gattis, Reddick, and Beltran are all starting to dig out of their collective funk from very early on.  The focus now shifts to the meat of the order as Bregman, Altuve, Correa, and Gurriel are a collective .180/.217/.220 with 2 RBI, 4 BB, and 17 K.  This will obviously not continue over 162 games, but it does need to turn around pretty soon.

Schedule/Pitching Probables

Monday, April 10 – 4:10pm CDT
Charlie Morton (0-0, 3.00) vs. James Paxton (0-0, 0.00)

It’s easy to forget this was the matchup that started last week’s 13-inning game.  Paxton pitched six innings of shutout ball only to have his bullpen cough up the lead.  Morton pitched six solid innings himself, dogged only by a 2-run homer.  This game starts early enough that another extra-inning effort won’t keep people up too late.

Tuesday, April 11 – 9:10pm CDT
Joe Musgrove (0-0, 3.60) vs. Ariel Miranda (0-0, 3.60)

Here’s another repeat matchup, this time from Thursday’s game when the M’s got over the hump and spoiled a four-game sweep.  Both pitchers had nearly identical stat lines for the game: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB; Musgrove allowed more walks (4 vs. 2), Miranda gave up more taters (2 vs. 1).

Wednesday, April 12 – 9:10pm CDT
Mike Fiers (0-1, 1.50) vs. Yovani Gallardo (0-1, 5.40)

Gallardo is the only Seattle starter Houston has not yet faced this season.  He gave up three runs on eight hits in his five-plus innings against the Angels last Friday.  Correa, Reddick, and Springer have all hit him well, and the Astros beat him in his only start against them in 2016.

Fiers was let down by his offense (no run support) and defense (run scoring on catcher’s interference) in his six innings facing the Royals on Friday.  He was 1-0 with a 5.02 ERA in three starts against the Mariners in 2016.

Royals @ Astros – Kick ‘Em While They’re Down

Posted on April 7, 2017 by MusicMan in Series Previews

ROYALS AT ASTROS

April 7-9, 2017

OK, we got the Opening Day jitters out of the way. It’s time to get down to the long, slow business of grinding the rest of the American League into dust. Why not get a little revenge while we’re at it?

I use “revenge” loosely, of course. I’m not aware of anything eminently hate-worthy about the Royals. Blowing game 4 was much more about the Astros’ own mistakes than the ways in which the Royals took advantage of them.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE LAST SERIES?

Astros

It was a good start; four-game sweeps aren’t easy. We’re on pace for 120+ wins, and that ain’t no thang. As an added bonus, for the first time this millennium, both the radio and TV broadcasts are good!

Thank you to our “sponsor”

In early overreactions:

  • George Springer will win the MVP unanimously, as he currently leads the AL in HR, RBI, and Win Probability Added, is second in WAR, and… um, dead last in baserunning.
  • Dallas Keuchel is BACK, and so is LMJ.
  • Jose Altuve believes his own hype and will be the worst hitter in the lineup all season.

Royals

The Royals found themselves on the wrong end of a 3-game sweep at the hands of the mighty Minnesota Twins, which is pretty low on the list of ways you would want to start your season. Even worse, their formerly unhittable bullpen gave up 14 runs in those 3 games, turning close contests into blowouts.

GAMES AND PROBABLES

Friday, April 7 – 7:10 pm CDT

Jason Vargas vs. Mike Fiers

Vargas underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015 and spent most of 2016 rehabilitating, making 3 September starts in his return. He has given up a .269 BA (14 for 52) against current Astros, including notables Jose Altuve (5 for 11) and Josh Reddick (6 for 30, 1 HR).

Fiers will look to rebound from 2016 and show that, whenever McHugh ultimately returns, he should keep his rotation spot. Unfortunately, the Royals are not the ideal crew for that – Fiers has given up a .327 clip (16 for 49) to current Royals; Cain, Escobar, and Hosmer have all hit him hard, and only Salvador Perez (0 for 8) has struggled against him.

Saturday, April 8 – 7:10 pm CDT

Danny Duffy (0-0, 1.50) vs. Dallas Keuchel (1-0, 0.00)

Duffy had a strong start against the Twins, giving up only 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings with 8 strikeouts. He has struggled against current Astros, giving up a .350 BA (21 for 60). Look for damage from Altuve (6 for 11, 2 2b) and Springer (3 for 6, 2 HR) and avert your eyes for Correa and Reddick (1 for 7 each).

Early season overreactions aside, Keuchel looked much better in the opener, keeping the ball down effectively. Current Royals have a .286 BA (36 for 126) against Keuchel, led by Cain (6 for 18, 2 HR) and Escobar (8 for 23, 1 HR). Keuchel will look forward to Moustakas (1 for 8, 7 groundouts, all to the right side) and Alex Gordon (1 for 10, 6 strikeouts).

Sunday, April 9 – 1:10 CDT

Nate Karns (0-0, 54.00) vs. Lance McCullers (1-0, 1.50)

The good news for Karns: he got two strikeouts. The bad news: Those were the only outs of his start – he walked two, gave up two, left the game, they all scored. Karns has had success against the Astros, only giving up a .224 BA (17 for 76). Reddick has had moderate success (3 for 8, 1 HR) but look out for Springer (1 for 7), Correa (2 for 12), and Beltran (2 for 12, 5 K)

McCullers managed his first start well, getting ahead of hitters and only giving up 1 run over 6 innings. (Let’s see if we can go 7, ok? Stretch goals.) LMJ has two career starts against the Royals – 1 regular season, and one playoff; the first was a 7 inning, 1 run performance, and the playoff game… well, McCullers sparkled with a 6 1/3 inning, 2 run, 2 hit effort. I don’t remember anything that happened after that, and you can’t make me.

Current Royals have only gone 5 for 30 against McCullers, with Perez (2 for 5) the only player to manage multiple hits against him.

CLOSING THOUGHT

It was pointed out to me yesterday that “Giles” spelled backwards is “Selig”.

I now feel the need to walk through Minute Maid Park with a large bell, yelling “UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!”

Mariners @ Astros – Back in the Saddle

Posted on April 3, 2017 by Waldo in Series Previews

MARINERS @ ASTROS

April 3-6, 2017

It’s Opening Day again.  Last year I waxed all sentimental-like on Opening Day, but this year I really just want to get down to business.  Lofty expectations followed by an infuriating inability to post even a competent W/L record against an otherwise-average division foe reminded me that, yes, my favorite sports team is, in fact, located in Houston.  Sure, the lineup saw a major overhaul in the offseason, and one SI writer is doubling down on his (in)famous prediction three years ago, but I refuse to drink the Kool-Aid.  At least not yet.

So, in the spirit of very cautious optimism coupled with a generous helping of skepticism, I give you the 2017 Opening Series Reaction/Excuse Spectrum.  Just like with premeditated political talking points, feel free to use any of these focus-group-tested1 reactions or excuses with your friends, on the TZ, or in tweets to Donald Trump.

spectrum

1 “I don’t get it” – my wife

SOME CHANGES AT OWA

Win or lose, you won’t see a recap of the Opening Day game.  Or tomorrow’s game, or the game after that.  Like Old Yeller after that tussle with the wolf (spoiler alert), we’re finally putting the (attempts at) daily recaps out of their misery.  If you would like to read about the events of a day’s game, feel free to head over to Astros.com, Crawfish Boxes, or Astros County.

This year we’re going to try combining recaps and previews into a sort of series (pre/re)view.  You’ll get a summary of what just happened and a look at the series ahead, along with the lame attempts at humor hilarious, biting commentary you’ve come to expect.  Hopefully we’ll also be able to feature more editorial content, like MusicMan’s excellent 40 for 40 series.

WHAT HAPPENED DURING SPRING TRAINING?

The Astros…

  • Went a cool .500 in the Grapefruit League
  • Had two-fifths of the Astros rotation notch 7+ ERAs.  No biggie.
  • Played somebody named Brock Dykxhoorn.  I hope it’s pronounced the way I think it is.

The Mariners…

  • Nearly won the Cactus League with a 19-14 record.
  • Played a catcher named Marcus Littlewood.

GAMES AND PROBABLES

Monday, April 3 – 7:10pm CDT
Felix Hernandez (2016: 11-8, 3.82) vs. Dallas Keuchel (2016: 9-12, 4.55)

Both pitchers are coming off of injury-shortened 2016 seasons, and both pitched well in the spring.  Seattle has had moderate success against Keuchel the last couple of years, but in the same span the Astros have not missed the King, especially at Minute Maid.  Shapes up to be an interesting game either way.

Tuesday, April 4 – 7:10pm CDT
Hisashi Iwakuma (2016: 16-12, 4.12) vs. Lance McCullers (2016: 6-5, 3.22)

The Astros beat Iwakuma twice in 2016 while the Mariners split two games against McCullers.  Both posted bad numbers (7+ ERA) in the spring.  I just want to see McCullers not get cute with hitters and improve upon his 1.56 WHIP from last year.

Wednesday, April 5 – 7:10pm CDT
James Paxton (2016: 6-7, 3.79) vs. Charlie Morton (2016: 1-1, 4.15)

Morton looks like an early bright spot in the rotation and barely any of the Mariners have significant experience hitting against him.  Paxton did well in the spring but a lesser Houston lineup didn’t have much trouble with him in 2016.

Thursday, April 6 – 7:10pm CDT
Ariel Miranda (2016: 5-2, 3.54) vs. Joe Musgrove (2016: 4-4, 4.06)

Both were August callups in 2016.  Miranda turned in an impressive 2.92 ERA in September to aid Seattle to its 4th-place wild card finish.  Musgrove let a handful of games get away from him but acquitted himself well for a rookie, as well as turning in a 2.08 ERA over seven spring starts.

40 for 40 Presents: Carlos Beltran

Posted on April 2, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

Carlos Beltran

Designated hitter / “left fielder”

Age: 39

Height: 6′ 1″

Weight: 215″

Switch hitter, throws right

How Did I Get Here?

With a career this long, we’re going to bullet points:

  • Beltran was a 2nd round pick by the Royals in 1995. When the man was drafted, the Braves were still playing in Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium… that was two stadiums ago for them.
  • Beltran came to Houston in June 2004 in a three-team deal that sent Octavio Dotel to Oakland and John Buck to Kansas City, with some spare parts going from Oakland to KC.
  • You may have forgotten this, but Beltran then signed with the Mets as a free agent following the 2005 season.
  • At the end of his Mets deal in 2011, he was traded at the deadline to San Francisco for Zack Wheeler. (Note: I legitimately did forget that he was ever a Giant.)
  • A free agent again, Beltran signed with the Cardinals following the 2011 season.
  • He actually made it all the way through a contract with one team, leaving the Cardinals for the Yankees after 2013.
  • The Yankees then traded him to Texas at the 2016 deadline in exchange for Nick Green, Erik Swanson, and Dillon Tate.
  • Beltran finally signed as a free agent with Houston in December 2016.

For those scoring at home.. since his last stint in Houston, Beltran has been a Met, (a Giant), a Cardinal, a Yankee, and a Ranger. He was one Braves uniform away from hitting for the “I hate these guys!” cycle.

Just how long has Beltran been playing? When Beltran debuted on September 14, 1998:

  • Google was 10 days old.
  • Only two Harry Potter books had been published.
  • Only three Star Wars movies existed.
  • The biggest news in technology was that America Online was interested in buying Netscape.
  • We hadn’t yet learned that Gerry Hunsicker would not trade Scott Elarton and Richard Hidalgo to get Roger Clemens.

Contract status:

Beltran signed a one year, $16M with the Astros.

Why Am I Here?

But the father said to his servants, ‘Quick! Bring the best robe and put it on him. Put a ring on his finger and sandals on his feet. Bring the fattened calf and kill it. Let us have a feast and celebrate.  For this son of mine was dead and is alive again; he was lost and is found.’ 

Let’s make one thing absolutely clear: the Carlos Beltran of 2004 is not walking through that door. The Carlos Beltran who played with the Astros for the summer and fall of 2004 put on the finest stretch of defensive center field I could ever hope to see. He put the Astros on his back and damn near willed them to the World Series.

(Oh, you think I’m exaggerating Beltran’s effect on that stacked team? In the NLCS:

  • Bagwell – 7 for 27, no home runs
  • Biggio – 6 for 32, 1 home run
  • Jeff Kent – 6 for 25, 3 home runs
  • Beltran – 10 for 24, 4 home runs, 4 steals without being caught… .417/.563/.958
  • The Astros scored 31 runs in the series; Beltran scored 12 of them.
  • Oh, and they went to seven games despite the fact that Brandon Backe started twice and Pete Munro started twice.)

This is all a roundabout way of saying: yes, Carlos Beltran broke Houston’s heart when he signed with the Mets.

GET OVER IT.

He’s back. It was 12 years ago. The man put on one of the most otherworldly displays of baseball I could ever hope to see at Minute Maid Park unless Mike Trout somehow becomes an Astro in his prime and plays way over his usual standard. Be glad he’s back. If you’re still booing him, that says a whole lot more about you than it does about him.

Oh, what is his role? Beltran is the team’s everyday designated hitter, and Hinch says he will be put into left field 20-30 games during the season.

What Are My Strengths?

That beautiful swing you may remember from both sides of the plate? It’s still there. He may not be 100% of the hitter he used to be, but just to throw the comparison out there:

  • Beltran, 2004: .258/.368/.559, 2.3 wins above replacement
  • Beltran, 2016: .295/.337/.513, 2.0 wins above replacement

He’s not quite as patient. He’s not quite as strong. But he can still hit the ball. Oh… and let’s throw one more comparison out there:

  • Houston designated hitters, 2016:  /.219/.299/.378

What Are My Weaknesses?

The defense? Gone. Beltran can barely cover left field… when placed there, he will be a liability.

The speed? Also gone. I mean G-O-N-E gone. Beltran will likely be relieved for a pinch runner in critical late inning spots.

Loves to hit: Beltran has been pretty even from both sides of the plate in his career, but last year he definitely preferred left handed pitching, posting a .338/.380/.589 line against southpaws, versus a .279/.321/.484 performance against right handers.

Hates to hit: No pitch jumps out, but as you might suspect form a hitter getting up there in years and losing a little bat speed, Beltran is weaker against pitches up in the zone than your average hitter.

What is my future with the Astros?

It’s a one year contract. Maybe they revisit it, but it seems more likely that he’s here as a stop gap until some of the younger hitters like Kyle Tucker or Derek Fisher are ready.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016 (NYY/TEX)593.295.337.513163299310
PECOTA535.252.307.428124196910
ZIPS521.271.317.464131217700
MMWAG475.266.319.433117166111

Who else would I remind you of?

As we close out this series, I’m not answering this question for Carlos Beltran. I’ve never seen anyone that does what he did in his prime. I’ll choose to remember him that way.

40 for 40 Presents: Preston Tucker

Posted on April 1, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

Preston Tucker

Left fielder

Age: 26

Height: 6′ 0″

Weight: 215

Bats left, throws left

How Did I Get Here?

Tucker was Houston’s 7th round pick in 2012, and made his major league debut in May 2015.

Contract status:

This is Tucker’s last option year and he will be eligible for arbitration no earlier than 2019.

Why Am I Here?

Perhaps no player better exemplifies Houston’s rapidly improving depth than Preston Tucker. In 2015, he was a contributor to a playoff team, even if he only made three pinch-hit appearances against the Royals. In 2016, he struggled to make contact, a problem likely associated with a shoulder injury that ultimately ended the season. So one injury and a couple of veteran outfielders later, Tucker is an afterthought – nobody seriously discussed him making the big-league roster this spring; he only made one appearance due to his late recovery from shoulder surgery.

So Tucker is left as depth, fighting with guys like Hernandez and Kemp at AAA for the next call should an outfield injury occur.

What Are My Strengths?

Tucker makes decent contact and hits for plus power. While with the Astros in 2015, he showed a consistent line drive stroke and an ability to hit big-league fastballs.

What Are My Weaknesses?

Tucker is a limited defender, even in Minute Maid’s small left field. And while the power is nice, by late 2015 those big league pitchers were figuring out just how vulnerable to breaking balls he was.

Loves to hit: As indicated, Tucker could handle anything without much break – he hit four-seamers, two-seamers, and sinkers at a .326 clip in 2015, including 13 doubles and 7 homers.

Hates to hit: Anything off speed. In that same span, Tucker hit only .174 against sliders, curves, and changeups. This trend continued in 2016, as he only managed 8 for 56 (.143) against these pitches.

What is my future with the Astros?

Preston Tucker has nothing left to prove in the minors – he’s slugged over .500 in the minors at every level over his 5-year career. All that’s left is for him to get another shot if an injury occurs, and to show that he can make the leap to handling major league pitching on a consistent basis. As his options are running out, this looks like his last chance to show that in Houston, or else we’ll be saying “Hey, remember Kyle Tucker’s brother?” in a couple of years.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016144.164.222.328224800
2016 (AAA)253.283.332.4746583202
PECOTA34.239.297.42371400
ZIPS488.239.289.410105185722
MMWAG92.247.308.4332141100

Who else would I remind you of?

There’s very little similarity in their swings or personality, but the profile of the minor-league slugger who came up during a playoff run and couldn’t ever quite figure out major league pitchers does remind me of Mitch Meluskey.

40 for 40 Presents: George Springer

Posted on April 1, 2017 by MusicMan in Original

Who Am I?

George Springer

Outfield

Age: 27

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 215

Bats right, throws right

How Did I Get Here?

Houston made Springer the 11th overall pick of the 2011 draft, and he was called up to the majors on April 15, 2014. (This had absolutely nothing to do with delaying his free agency by a year; no, he clearly needed those last two weeks in the minors.)

Contract status:

Springer agreed to a one year, $3.9M contract this offseason in his first arbitration-eligible year. He will be eligible for free agency after the 2020 season.

Why Am I Here?

Springer will make the move from right field to center this season as the Astros choose to sacrifice some defense for more consistent hitting. He will start the season leading off, and will likely remain there for the foreseeable future.

What Are My Strengths?

Springer is a patient hitter, working deep into counts and drawing a lot of walks – he was 4th in the AL in this category last year. He has power to all fields – of his 29 homers last year, 8 were to center and 10 to right. He has plus speed and was an above-average right fielder; this will hopefully translate to at least average center field play.

What Are My Weaknesses?

Working deep into those counts also results in a TON of strikeouts. 178 K’s is pretty rough to watch from a leadoff hitter.

The other issue was his baserunning. “Caught stealing” is not the category you want to lead the league in, but Springer did exactly that – he was caught 10 times while succeeding only 9.

Here’s a gift for Gary Pettis.

The other elephant in the room is health; last year was the first time Springer made it through a healthy season.

Loves to hit: Leading off the inning. Last year Springer hit .302/.397/.535 when he was the first batter of the inning – that’s a heck of a spark plug throughout a game.

Hates to hit: Springer handled curveballs better than most anyone on the team, but sliders befuddled him. With 124 at bats for sliders and only a .177 BA/.266 SLG, Springer seems to have the “can’t hit ’em, can’t lay off ’em” issue with sliders.

What is my future with the Astros?

Along with Altuve and Correa, Springer represents the core of the Astros for the next several years. I would expect an All-Star appearance or two along the way.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016744.261.359.4571682982910
PECOTA648.253.350.4491432679137
ZIPS590.251.350.4621282676126
MMWAG681.263.361.4791593187119

Who else would I remind you of?

If you added about 20 points of batting average, I think Springer would be a dead ringer for Bobby Abreu.

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