When salary figures get cited in articles, it often leads to some confusion because the writer often doesn't indicate where that number is coming from or what it represents. News organizations and others who compile this information will often make different assumptions leading to some discrepancies depending on the source. The figures being cited can also differ depending on whether beginning of season payroll is being used or the end of season number.
But the biggest reason for confusion is whether the author is citing the team payroll figure or the amount used in connection with regards to the competitive balance tax (CBT, aka luxury tax). Case in point:
yesterday's article from McTaggart when he cites a 2018 salary figure of $182MM. He does clearly state that it's the beg of year amount and that he's using the amount calculated by the Associated Press (AP). Except that $182MM is not the AP's amount--
they calculated a $158MM payroll for Houston as of opening day last season. Best I can tell, McTaggart apparently decides to drop in the CBT figure. I have no problem with him doing that as long as he had clearly labeled it as such (which he didn't do). Hence, confusion.
If you read that article, Daddy Crane signals a willingness to raise payroll over last year but also unsurprisingly caveats that the Astros won't go over the CBT threshold of $206MM (up from $197MM in 2018). To try and figure out where the club currently stands with regard to that threshold, I've added a separate calculation below.
First off, however, let's clean up the payroll figure to agree with the arb-eligible thread...
$MM
Guaranteed salaries (8 players).....................................83.3 (A)
Arb-eligible salaries (10 players)....................................48.1 (B)
Pre-arb salaries (8 players)...............................................6.2 (C)Total 2019 payroll (current 26-man roster)..........137.6 (D)Both
Roster Resource (RR) and
Spotrac (ST) say
final 2018 payroll was $163MM. If you assume a 2019 payroll somewhere between 5% above or below that figure (i.e., in the range of $155MM to $170MM),
then the Astros have room to add somewhere between $17MM and $32MM in payroll. If you've been on the joy juice (or think Crane might view 2019 as the window possibly closing with the impending free agency of Verlander & Cole) and think the payroll might be increased by as much as 10% to $180MM,
then add another $10MM to that upper bound.
(A) Verlander, Reddick, Springer, Gurriel, Altuve, Smith, Rondon and Chirinos. RR reports it as $83.3MM while ST says $83.7MM, with the minor difference being the calculation of the pro-ration of the Gurriel signing bonus.
(B)
See the arb-eligible thread.(C) RR plugs in a figure of $7.77MM which works out to $1.11MM per pre-arb player. That's too high. The average pre-arb salary for the Astros in 2018 was $592K so I used $600K as the 2019 figure for everyone but Aledmys Diaz. While the recent trade acquisition is pre-arb, he was paid $2MM by the Blue Jays in 2018 and
Article VI(B)(1) of the CBA comes into play here. That prevents a more than 20% reduction from a player's previous years salary. While in theory the Astros could cut Diaz's 2019 salary to $1.6MM, I would expect they'll do what the BJs did last year and renew him at $2MM (that was his salary in 2017 under the final year of his original 4-yr contract with the Cardinals). So a total of $5.6MM for 8 pre-arb players which includes $2MM for Diaz and $4.2MM for the remainder (7 players X $600K).
(D) Why 26-man roster instead of 25? Because this includes the salary for Lance McCullers who'll spend all of 2019 on the DL.
CBT CalculationLet's now try and calculate the CBT figure. I used a third source (
Cot's Contracts) for this purpose. There appear to be three primary differences between the CBT amount and the team payroll amount from above:
- On guaranteed salaries, AAV is used instead of cash payments.
- Benefits are added in so it's not just salary only.
- An adjustment is made for the minor league salaries of 40-man roster players who are not on the 25-man roster.
So plugging in some numbers ($MM):
Team payroll (per above)......................................137.6
AAV adjustments:
--Altuve......................................................................13.9 (E)
--Verlander................................................................(2.3)
--Gurriel.....................................................................(0.9)
--Smith.......................................................................(0.5)
--Rondon...................................................................(0.3)
Benefits.....................................................................14.5 (F)
Minor's salaries..........................................................2.3 (G)
CBT Payroll........................................................164.3So looking at CBT payroll, Crane & Co could add about $40MM in additional salary between now and the beginning of the season and still be slightly below the CBT threshold. However if they added that much that wouldn't allow for adding much salary at the trade deadline so I'm guessing $30-35MM would be the
maximum add prior to opening day. That would put CBT payroll in the $195-200MM range giving the club flexibility later in the season. Those range of max increases aren't too far off what I threw out above analyzing non-CBT payroll.
(E) The AAV adjustments are relatively small with the exception of Altuve. Under the 7-year extension he signed back in March, he was to be paid $9MM for 2018/$9.5MM for 2019/$29MM for 2020-2024 for a total of $163.5MM. Divide that figure by 7 and you get an AAV of $23.4MM. Subtract his 2019 salary of $9.5MM from the AAV and that gets you the $13.9MM adjustment.
(F) Seems to be a standard amount plugged in for all clubs.
(G) Ditto.