Team Payroll 2019

[Nate Colbert]

$MM
Guaranteed salaries (7 players)......................77.5 (1)
Arb-eligible salaries (11 players).....................49.6 (2)
Pre-arb salaries (7 players)................................4.2 (3)
Total 2019 payroll (current roster)..........131.3

Both Roster Resource (RR) and Spotrac (ST) say final 2018 payroll was $163MM. If you assume a 2019 payroll somewhere between 5% above or below that figure (i.e., in the range of $155MM to $170MM), then the Astros have room to add somewhere between $25MM and $40MM in payroll. If you've been on the joy juice (or think Crane might view 2019 as the window possibly closing with the impending free agency of Verlander & Cole) and think the payroll might be increased by as much as 10% to $180MM, then add another $10MM to that upper bound.

(1) Verlander, Reddick, Springer, Gurriel, Altuve, Smith and Rondon. RR reports it as $77.5MM while ST says $77.9MM, with the minor difference being the calculation of the pro-ration of the Gurriel signing bonus.
(2) See the arb-eligible thread.
(3) RR plugs in a figure of $7.77MM which works out to $1.11MM per pre-arb player. That's way too high. The average pre-arb salary for the Astros in 2018 was $592K so I used $600K as the 2019 figure (7 players X $600K = $4.2MM).

[Nate Colbert]

I've adjusted this to account for the Aledmys Diaz acquisition...

$MM
Guaranteed salaries (7 players)......................77.5 (1)
Arb-eligible salaries (11 players).....................49.6 (2)
Pre-arb salaries (7 players)................................5.6 (3)
Total 2019 payroll (current roster)..........132.7

Both Roster Resource (RR) and Spotrac (ST) say final 2018 payroll was $163MM. If you assume a 2019 payroll somewhere between 5% above or below that figure (i.e., in the range of $155MM to $170MM), then the Astros have room to add somewhere between $22MM and $37MM in payroll. If you've been on the joy juice (or think Crane might view 2019 as the window possibly closing with the impending free agency of Verlander & Cole) and think the payroll might be increased by as much as 10% to $180MM, then add another $10MM to that upper bound.

(1) Verlander, Reddick, Springer, Gurriel, Altuve, Smith and Rondon. RR reports it as $77.5MM while ST says $77.9MM, with the minor difference being the calculation of the pro-ration of the Gurriel signing bonus.
(2) See the arb-eligible thread.
(3) RR plugs in a figure of $7.77MM which works out to $1.11MM per pre-arb player. That's way too high. The average pre-arb salary for the Astros in 2018 was $592K so I used $600K as the 2019 figure for everyone but Aledmys Diaz. While the recent trade acquisition is pre-arb, he was paid $2MM by the Blue Jays in 2018 and Article VI(B)(1) of the CBA comes into play here. That prevents a more than 20% reduction from a player's previous years salary. While in theory the Astros could cut Diaz's 2019 salary to $1.6MM, I would expect they'll do what the BJs did last year and renew him at $2MM (that was his salary in 2017 under the final year of his original 4-yr contract with the Cardinals). So a total of $5.6MM for 7 pre-arb players which includes $2MM for Diaz and $3.6MM for the remainder (6 players X $600K).

[Jose Cruz III]

That's some great info, Nate. Thanks.

[Nate Colbert]

Adjusting to reflect Robinson Chirinos acquisition plus one other tweak...

$MM
Guaranteed salaries (8 players).....................................83.3 (1)
Arb-eligible salaries (11 players)....................................49.6 (2)
Pre-arb salaries (7 players)...............................................5.6 (3)
Total 2019 payroll (current 26-man roster)..........138.5 (4)

Both Roster Resource (RR) and Spotrac (ST) say final 2018 payroll was $163MM. If you assume a 2019 payroll somewhere between 5% above or below that figure (i.e., in the range of $155MM to $170MM), then the Astros have room to add somewhere between $17MM and $32MM in payroll. If you've been on the joy juice (or think Crane might view 2019 as the window possibly closing with the impending free agency of Verlander & Cole) and think the payroll might be increased by as much as 10% to $180MM, then add another $10MM to that upper bound.

(1) Verlander, Reddick, Springer, Gurriel, Altuve, Smith, Rondon and Chirinos. RR reports it as $83.3MM while ST says $83.7MM, with the minor difference being the calculation of the pro-ration of the Gurriel signing bonus.
(2) See the arb-eligible thread.
(3) RR plugs in a figure of $7.77MM which works out to $1.11MM per pre-arb player. That's too high. The average pre-arb salary for the Astros in 2018 was $592K so I used $600K as the 2019 figure for everyone but Aledmys Diaz. While the recent trade acquisition is pre-arb, he was paid $2MM by the Blue Jays in 2018 and Article VI(B)(1) of the CBA comes into play here. That prevents a more than 20% reduction from a player's previous years salary. While in theory the Astros could cut Diaz's 2019 salary to $1.6MM, I would expect they'll do what the BJs did last year and renew him at $2MM (that was his salary in 2017 under the final year of his original 4-yr contract with the Cardinals). So a total of $5.6MM for 7 pre-arb players which includes $2MM for Diaz and $3.6MM for the remainder (6 players X $600K).
(4) Why 26-man roster instead of 25? Because this includes the salary for Lance McCullers who'll spend all of 2019 on the DL.

[VirtualBob]

Thank you for this!

[Lefty]

Everyone else has said this, but thank you, Nate, for being the best source of Astros facts on the web.

[Nate Colbert]

When salary figures get cited in articles, it often leads to some confusion because the writer often doesn't indicate where that number is coming from or what it represents. News organizations and others who compile this information will often make different assumptions leading to some discrepancies depending on the source. The figures being cited can also differ depending on whether beginning of season payroll is being used or the end of season number.

But the biggest reason for confusion is whether the author is citing the team payroll figure or the amount used in connection with regards to the competitive balance tax (CBT, aka luxury tax). Case in point: yesterday's article from McTaggart when he cites a 2018 salary figure of $182MM. He does clearly state that it's the beg of year amount and that he's using the amount calculated by the Associated Press (AP). Except that $182MM is not the AP's amount--they calculated a $158MM payroll for Houston as of opening day last season. Best I can tell, McTaggart apparently decides to drop in the CBT figure. I have no problem with him doing that as long as he had clearly labeled it as such (which he didn't do). Hence, confusion.

If you read that article, Daddy Crane signals a willingness to raise payroll over last year but also unsurprisingly caveats that the Astros won't go over the CBT threshold of $206MM (up from $197MM in 2018). To try and figure out where the club currently stands with regard to that threshold, I've added a separate calculation below.

First off, however, let's clean up the payroll figure to agree with the arb-eligible thread...

$MM
Guaranteed salaries (8 players).....................................83.3 (A)
Arb-eligible salaries (10 players)....................................48.1 (B)
Pre-arb salaries (8 players)...............................................6.2 (C)
Total 2019 payroll (current 26-man roster)..........137.6 (D)

Both Roster Resource (RR) and Spotrac (ST) say final 2018 payroll was $163MM. If you assume a 2019 payroll somewhere between 5% above or below that figure (i.e., in the range of $155MM to $170MM), then the Astros have room to add somewhere between $17MM and $32MM in payroll. If you've been on the joy juice (or think Crane might view 2019 as the window possibly closing with the impending free agency of Verlander & Cole) and think the payroll might be increased by as much as 10% to $180MM, then add another $10MM to that upper bound.

(A) Verlander, Reddick, Springer, Gurriel, Altuve, Smith, Rondon and Chirinos. RR reports it as $83.3MM while ST says $83.7MM, with the minor difference being the calculation of the pro-ration of the Gurriel signing bonus.
(B) See the arb-eligible thread.
(C) RR plugs in a figure of $7.77MM which works out to $1.11MM per pre-arb player. That's too high. The average pre-arb salary for the Astros in 2018 was $592K so I used $600K as the 2019 figure for everyone but Aledmys Diaz. While the recent trade acquisition is pre-arb, he was paid $2MM by the Blue Jays in 2018 and Article VI(B)(1) of the CBA comes into play here. That prevents a more than 20% reduction from a player's previous years salary. While in theory the Astros could cut Diaz's 2019 salary to $1.6MM, I would expect they'll do what the BJs did last year and renew him at $2MM (that was his salary in 2017 under the final year of his original 4-yr contract with the Cardinals). So a total of $5.6MM for 8 pre-arb players which includes $2MM for Diaz and $4.2MM for the remainder (7 players X $600K).
(D) Why 26-man roster instead of 25? Because this includes the salary for Lance McCullers who'll spend all of 2019 on the DL.


CBT Calculation
Let's now try and calculate the CBT figure. I used a third source (Cot's Contracts) for this purpose. There appear to be three primary differences between the CBT amount and the team payroll amount from above:

• On guaranteed salaries, AAV is used instead of cash payments.
• Benefits are added in so it's not just salary only.
• An adjustment is made for the minor league salaries of 40-man roster players who are not on the 25-man roster.

So plugging in some numbers ($MM):
Team payroll (per above)......................................137.6
AAV adjustments:
--Altuve......................................................................13.9 (E)
--Verlander................................................................(2.3)
--Gurriel.....................................................................(0.9)
--Smith.......................................................................(0.5)
--Rondon...................................................................(0.3)
Benefits.....................................................................14.5 (F)
Minor's salaries..........................................................2.3 (G)
CBT Payroll........................................................164.3

So looking at CBT payroll, Crane & Co could add about $40MM in additional salary between now and the beginning of the season and still be slightly below the CBT threshold. However if they added that much that wouldn't allow for adding much salary at the trade deadline so I'm guessing $30-35MM would be the maximum add prior to opening day. That would put CBT payroll in the $195-200MM range giving the club flexibility later in the season. Those range of max increases aren't too far off what I threw out above analyzing non-CBT payroll.

(E) The AAV adjustments are relatively small with the exception of Altuve. Under the 7-year extension he signed back in March, he was to be paid $9MM for 2018/$9.5MM for 2019/$29MM for 2020-2024 for a total of $163.5MM. Divide that figure by 7 and you get an AAV of $23.4MM. Subtract his 2019 salary of $9.5MM from the AAV and that gets you the $13.9MM adjustment.
(F) Seems to be a standard amount plugged in for all clubs.
(G) Ditto.

[Nate Colbert]

So let's update everything for the Brantley signing...

$MM
Guaranteed salaries (9 players).....................................99.3 (A)
Arb-eligible salaries (10 players)....................................48.1 (B)
Pre-arb salaries (7 players)...............................................5.6 (C)
Total 2019 payroll (current 26-man roster)..........153.0 (D)

(A) Verlander, Reddick, Springer, Gurriel, Altuve, Smith, Rondon, Chirinos and Brantley. RR reports it as $99.3MM while ST says $99.7MM, with the minor difference being the calculation of the pro-ration of the Gurriel signing bonus.
(B) See the arb-eligible thread.
(C) The average pre-arb salary for the Astros in 2018 was $592K so I used $600K as the 2019 figure for everyone but Aledmys Diaz. While the recent trade acquisition is pre-arb, he was paid $2MM by the Blue Jays in 2018 and Article VI(B)(1) of the CBA comes into play here. That prevents a more than 20% reduction from a player's previous years salary. While in theory the Astros could cut Diaz's 2019 salary to $1.6MM, I would expect they'll do what the BJs did last year and renew him at $2MM (that was his salary in 2017 under the final year of his original 4-yr contract with the Cardinals). So a total of $5.6MM for 7 pre-arb players which includes $2MM for Diaz and $3.6MM for the remainder (6 players X $600K).
(D) Why 26-man roster instead of 25? Because this includes the salary for Lance McCullers who'll spend all of 2019 on the DL.


CBT Calculation
Let's now try and calculate the CBT figure. I used a third source (Cot's Contracts) for this purpose. There appear to be three primary differences between the CBT amount and the team payroll amount from above:

• On guaranteed salaries, AAV is used instead of cash payments.
• Benefits are added in so it's not just salary only.
• An adjustment is made for the minor league salaries of 40-man roster players who are not on the 25-man roster.

So plugging in some numbers ($MM):
Team payroll (per above)......................................153.0
AAV adjustments:
--Altuve......................................................................13.9 (E)
--Verlander................................................................(2.3)
--Gurriel.....................................................................(0.9)
--Smith.......................................................................(0.5)
--Rondon...................................................................(0.3)
Benefits.....................................................................14.5 (F)
Minor's salaries..........................................................2.3 (G)
CBT Payroll........................................................179.7

So looking at CBT payroll, Crane & Co could add about $25MM in additional salary between now and the beginning of the season and still be slightly below the CBT threshold. However if they added that much that wouldn't allow for adding much salary at the trade deadline so I'm guessing $15-20MM would be the maximum add prior to opening day. That would put CBT payroll in the $195-200MM range giving the club flexibility later in the season.

(E) The AAV adjustments are relatively small with the exception of Altuve. Under the 7-year extension he signed back in March, he was to be paid $9MM for 2018/$9.5MM for 2019/$29MM for 2020-2024 for a total of $163.5MM. Divide that figure by 7 and you get an AAV of $23.4MM. Subtract his 2019 salary of $9.5MM from the AAV and that gets you the $13.9MM adjustment.
(F) Seems to be a standard amount plugged in for all clubs.
(G) Ditto.

[Nate Colbert]

Okay, me vs Cots regards the CBT number. I've got $179.7MM currently while Cots is currently showing $169.8MM (retrieved on 12/18):

• Cots has not accounted for Aledmys Diaz and the $2MM he'll be owed in 2019 in their pre-arb figure.
• Cots hasn't accounted for the fact that LMJ will spend the year on the 60-day DL.
• I'm using the MLBTR figure of $48.1MM for the arb-eligible players salary estimate. Cot's is using their own figure of $40.6MM. You would expect a difference between the two numbers because they are estimates. I wouldn't have expected that wide of discrepancy ($7.5MM) however. Since Cots does not break down their total, it's impossible to compare figures. Having looked at the accuracy of MLBTR's estimates last year, I'm more inclined to trust their numbers at this point.

[Reuben]

Not too long, did read. Thanks.

[Mr. Appropriate]

How does a signing bonus affect calculating the team salary for luxury tax purposes? Noticed Brantley received a 2mil signing bonus and wondering how mlb characterises them. Still in shock that the Astros are getting anywhere near the salary ceiling. Wonder abounds
 

[Nate Colbert]

How does a signing bonus affect calculating the team salary for luxury tax purposes?

Pro-rated over the life of the contract. For purpose of the CBT, paying a guy a $2MM signing bonus plus $15M per season is the same as paying the player $16MM per with no signing bonus.

[Lefty]

Pro-rated over the life of the contract. For purpose of the CBT, paying a guy a $2MM signing bonus plus $15M per season is the same as paying the player $16MM per with no signing bonus.

How do performance bonuses figure in, like "you get an extra million if you pitch/play X number of games..."?

[Nate Colbert]

How do performance bonuses figure in, like "you get an extra million if you pitch/play X number of games..."?

Guaranteed money gets factored in as part of the AAV calculation--besides signing bonuses, a club buyout of an option year also goes into the AAV (if Brantley had a club option of $15MM for 2021 but the Astros had a buyout option of $3MM, that $3MM is considered guaranteed money and therefore also would have been pro-rated over 2019 and 2020).

Performance bonuses are in general NOT considered guaranteed money. That however does not mean clubs can circumvent the CBT by signing guys to easily achievable bonuses. I'm almost certain I came across a clause that allows the commissioner's office to nuke a contract if it was designed for CBT avoidance. And aside from the CBT calculation, I believe there exists a clause in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that limits how much overall compensation can be derived from performance bonuses.

So if a player earns a $100K bonus for making the All-Star game in 2019, then it simply gets added to 2019 payroll and for purposes of the CBT. I haven't looked into 2019 performance bonuses for Astros' players. Even after having done so, I'm not sure I'd be able to estimate the overall maximum impact.

Performance bonuses can be a lot more complex than the straightforward example above. For example, some may trigger escalator clauses for future years (Altuve I believe has such an escalator clause in his contract). I'll defer at this point trying to explain how those might work for purposes of the CBT.

[Lefty]

Guaranteed money gets factored in as part of the AAV calculation--besides signing bonuses, a club buyout of an option year also goes into the AAV (if Brantley had a club option of $15MM for 2021 but the Astros had a buyout option of $3MM, that $3MM is considered guaranteed money and therefore also would have been pro-rated over 2019 and 2020).

Performance bonuses are in general NOT considered guaranteed money. That however does not mean clubs can circumvent the CBT by signing guys to easily achievable bonuses. I'm almost certain I came across a clause that allows the commissioner's office to nuke a contract if it was designed for CBT avoidance. And aside from the CBT calculation, I believe there exists a clause in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that limits how much overall compensation can be derived from performance bonuses.

So if a player earns a $100K bonus for making the All-Star game in 2019, then it simply gets added to 2019 payroll and for purposes of the CBT. I haven't looked into 2019 performance bonuses for Astros' players. Even after having done so, I'm not sure I'd be able to estimate the overall maximum impact.

Performance bonuses can be a lot more complex than the straightforward example above. For example, some may trigger escalator clauses for future years (Altuve I believe has such an escalator clause in his contract). I'll defer at this point trying to explain how those might work for purposes of the CBT.

So the "All Star bonus" gets added to the current season's CBT total?  What about postseason...CY/MVP/GG/etc?  I'm just curious, you've already answered half the questions I didn't even ask.

[Nate Colbert]

So let's go to the CBA itself...

Each Club’s final Actual Club Payroll for a Contract Year in which the Competitive Balance Tax is applicable shall be calculated on the December 2 following that Contract Year and shall be the exclusive figure used for the purpose of determining whether a Club has exceeded the Base Tax or Surcharge Thresholds.

A Uniform Player’s Contract with a term of more than one (1) championship season (“Multi-Year Contract”) shall be deemed to have a Salary in each Guaranteed Year equal to the “Average Annual Value” (“AAV”) of the Contract (plus any bonuses subsequently included by operation of Section E(4) below).

E(4)
Any amounts that are actually earned by a Player as Performance Bonuses, Award Bonuses or any other bonuses properly included in a Uniform Player’s Contract shall be included as part of the Player’s Salary in the Contract Year in which the service or performance giving rise to the Bonus was provided. Potential bonuses shall not be included in the AAV calculation made pursuant to Section E(2) above.

So...

(1) Technically, bonuses for All-Star game appearances and all the post-season hardware (Gold Gloves, Cy Youngs, MVPs) are regarded as "Awards Bonuses" while the "you get an extra million if you pitch/play X number of games" type bonus are regarded as "Performance Bonuses". For purposes of our discussion here, it's a distinction without a difference as both are handled in the same manner.

(2) Since the tax is calculated on Dec. 2 for that year's payroll, any and all 2019 post-season hardware bonuses will get included in 2019 CBT calculation. So clubs do need to factor in a cushion for all Performance and Awards Bonuses (or all they feel will realistically be paid out).

[Nate Colbert]

Guaranteed money gets factored in as part of the AAV calculation--besides signing bonuses, a club buyout of an option year also goes into the AAV (if Brantley had a club option of $15MM for 2021 but the Astros had a buyout option of $3MM, that $3MM is considered guaranteed money and therefore also would have been pro-rated over 2019 and 2020).

There's an interesting wrinkle illustrated by Pollack's contract today with the Dodgers. It was 4 yr deal for $55MM with a player option for a 5th year at $10MM. If Pollack decides not to exercise that 2023 option, then the Dodgers owe him $5MM. The contract could have been structured slightly differently--if the 2023 option was a club option rather than a player option with the Dodgers owing Pollack $5MM if they decide not to exercise it. The total guarantee is $60MM in either instance but the luxury tax hit will be different.

In scenario #1 (the actual contract), it's considered a 5-year deal for CBT purposes so that the AAV hit will be calculated at $12MM ($60MM divided by 5). In scenario #2 (club option rather player option), it's considered a 4-year deal so that the AAV hit would be $15MM ($60MM divided by 4). By agreeing to the player option, the Dodgers give themselves a bit more breathing room in staying under the CBT threshold in 2019 to the tune of $3MM*.

*The tradeoff of course is that the Dodgers may end up paying Pollock a total of $65MM under the contract rather than $60MM if Pollock does exercise that 2023 option.

[Nate Colbert]

Buster Olney  @Buster_ESPN 3m ago
Breakdown of Wade Miley's possible performance bonuses on top of his $4.5m salary with Houston: $100K for 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 games started; $100K when he reaches 25, 35, 45, 55 and 60 relief appearances.

[Nate Colbert]

Updating for the Miley signing...

$MM
Guaranteed salaries (10 players).................................103.8 (A)
Arb-eligible salaries (10 players)....................................48.1 (B)
Pre-arb salaries (6 players)...............................................5.0 (C)
Total 2019 payroll (current 26-man roster)..........156.9 (D)

(A) Verlander, Reddick, Springer, Gurriel, Altuve, Smith, Rondon, Chirinos, Brantley and Miley. RR reports it as $103.8MM while ST says $104.2MM, with the minor difference being the calculation of the pro-ration of the Gurriel signing bonus.
(B) See the arb-eligible thread.
(C) The average pre-arb salary for the Astros in 2018 was $592K so I used $600K as the 2019 figure for everyone but Aledmys Diaz. While the recent trade acquisition is pre-arb, he was paid $2MM by the Blue Jays in 2018 and Article VI(B)(1) of the CBA comes into play here. That prevents a more than 20% reduction from a player's previous years salary. While in theory the Astros could cut Diaz's 2019 salary to $1.6MM, I would expect they'll do what the BJs did last year and renew him at $2MM (that was his salary in 2017 under the final year of his original 4-yr contract with the Cardinals). So a total of $5.6MM for 6 pre-arb players which includes $2MM for Diaz and $3.0MM for the remainder (5 players X $600K).
(D) Why 26-man roster instead of 25? Because this includes the salary for Lance McCullers who'll spend all of 2019 on the DL.


CBT Calculation
Let's now try and calculate the CBT figure. I used a third source (Cot's Contracts) for this purpose. There appear to be three primary differences between the CBT amount and the team payroll amount from above:

• On guaranteed salaries, AAV is used instead of cash payments.
• Benefits are added in so it's not just salary only.
• An adjustment is made for the minor league salaries of 40-man roster players who are not on the 25-man roster.

So plugging in some numbers ($MM):
Team payroll (per above)......................................156.9
AAV adjustments:
--Altuve......................................................................13.9 (E)
--Verlander................................................................(2.3)
--Gurriel.....................................................................(0.9)
--Smith.......................................................................(0.5)
--Rondon...................................................................(0.3)
Benefits.....................................................................14.5 (F)
Minor's salaries..........................................................2.3 (G)
CBT Payroll........................................................183.6

So looking at CBT payroll and assuming no more moves before opening day, Crane & Co could add about $20MM in additional salary at the trade deadline and still be slightly below the CBT threshold.

(E) The AAV adjustments are relatively small with the exception of Altuve. Under the 7-year extension he signed back in March, he was to be paid $9MM for 2018/$9.5MM for 2019/$29MM for 2020-2024 for a total of $163.5MM. Divide that figure by 7 and you get an AAV of $23.4MM. Subtract his 2019 salary of $9.5MM from the AAV and that gets you the $13.9MM adjustment.
(F) Seems to be a standard amount plugged in for all clubs.
(G) Ditto.

[toddthebod]

So looking at CBT payroll and assuming no more moves before opening day, Crane & Co could add about $20MM in additional salary at the trade deadline and still be slightly below the CBT threshold.

Trade Reddick to the Giants or Indians and sign Harper.  C'mon Luhnow.  Do it! 

[Nate Colbert]

Buster Olney  @Buster_ESPN 3m ago
Breakdown of Wade Miley's possible performance bonuses on top of his $4.5m salary with Houston: $100K for 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 games started; $100K when he reaches 25, 35, 45, 55 and 60 relief appearances.

Just noting other Performance Bonuses and Award Bonuses the Astros are potentially on the hook for this year (per Cots):

• Verlander: award bonuses, including $0.1M for All-Star selection
• Brantley: award bonuses, including top 5 in MVP vote, WS MVP, LCS MVP, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, All Star
• Gurriel: award bonuses include $0.1M for MVP ($50,000 for second in vote, $25,000 for third). $50,000 for WS MVP. $25,000 each for Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, All-Star, LCS MVP.

[Reuben]

Trade Reddick to the Giants or Indians and sign Harper.  C'mon Luhnow.  Do it! 

Reddick will be 32 and is coming off a mediocre season, with $26m still owed for 2019-2020. I think the Astros would have to eat over half of that money to get someone to take him. I wondered if the Braves were an option, since he's a Georgia boy and they historically love their local players, but then they re-signed Markakis.

[moriartp]

Per Rosenthal, Devo settled his arb case:

Chris Devenski settled his arbitration case with #Astros at $1.525M. Deal also includes club option at $2.625M for 2020. Base in ‘20 can increase to $2.725M if 50G in ‘19, $2.825M if 60, $2.925M if 68. Had asked for $1.65M. Team had offered $1.4M.

[VirtualBob]

Reddick will be 32 and is coming off a mediocre season, with $26m still owed for 2019-2020. I think the Astros would have to eat over half of that money to get someone to take him. I wondered if the Braves were an option, since he's a Georgia boy and they historically love their local players, but then they re-signed Markakis.

Does he have a ranch in Athens or Rome or somewhere?

[Nate Colbert]

Just updating for the final arb-eligible number and in case you wanted to compare my CBT number to the number calculated by one of the MLBTR guys (who doesn't show his work) here...

$MM
Guaranteed salaries (10 players).................................103.8 (A)
Arb-eligible salaries (10 players)....................................48.8 (B)
Pre-arb salaries (6 players)...............................................5.0 (C)
Total 2019 payroll (current 26-man roster)..........157.6 (D)

(A) Verlander, Reddick, Springer, Gurriel, Altuve, Smith, Rondon, Chirinos, Brantley and Miley. RR reports it as $103.8MM while ST says $104.2MM, with the minor difference being the calculation of the pro-ration of the Gurriel signing bonus.
(B) See the arb-eligible thread.
(C) The average pre-arb salary for the Astros in 2018 was $592K so I used $600K as the 2019 figure for everyone but Aledmys Diaz. While the recent trade acquisition is pre-arb, he was paid $2MM by the Blue Jays in 2018 and Article VI(B)(1) of the CBA comes into play here. That prevents a more than 20% reduction from a player's previous years salary. While in theory the Astros could cut Diaz's 2019 salary to $1.6MM, I would expect they'll do what the BJs did last year and renew him at $2MM (that was his salary in 2017 under the final year of his original 4-yr contract with the Cardinals). So a total of $5.6MM for 6 pre-arb players which includes $2MM for Diaz and $3.0MM for the remainder (5 players X $600K).
(D) Why 26-man roster instead of 25? Because this includes the salary for Lance McCullers who'll spend all of 2019 on the DL.


CBT Calculation
Let's now try and calculate the CBT figure. I used a third source (Cot's Contracts) for this purpose. There appear to be three primary differences between the CBT amount and the team payroll amount from above:

• On guaranteed salaries, AAV is used instead of cash payments.
• Benefits are added in so it's not just salary only.
• An adjustment is made for the minor league salaries of 40-man roster players who are not on the 25-man roster.

So plugging in some numbers ($MM):
Team payroll (per above)......................................157.6
AAV adjustments:
--Altuve......................................................................13.9 (E)
--Verlander................................................................(2.3)
--Gurriel.....................................................................(0.9)
--Smith.......................................................................(0.5)
--Rondon...................................................................(0.3)
Benefits.....................................................................14.5 (F)
Minor's salaries..........................................................2.3 (G)
CBT Payroll........................................................184.3

So looking at CBT payroll and assuming no more moves before opening day, Crane & Co could add about $20MM in additional salary at the trade deadline and still be slightly below the CBT threshold.

(E) The AAV adjustments are relatively small with the exception of Altuve. Under the 7-year extension he signed back in March, he was to be paid $9MM for 2018/$9.5MM for 2019/$29MM for 2020-2024 for a total of $163.5MM. Divide that figure by 7 and you get an AAV of $23.4MM. Subtract his 2019 salary of $9.5MM from the AAV and that gets you the $13.9MM adjustment.
(F) Seems to be a standard amount plugged in for all clubs.
(G) Ditto.

[Lefty]

Bregman renewed at $640.5K

"I'm just disappointed and I feel like I outperformed that last year. I understand that it's a business, but I feel like good business would be wanting to make a player who performed at a high level on your team happy and want to feel like he wanted to be kept and feel like they wanted him to play here forever. I'm just disappointed it doesn't seem like the same amount of want."

Luhnow:

"The reason we went out of our way last year for Correa is he won Rookie of the Year [in 2015] and missed Super Two by one day, and we felt like we needed to make that up to him.  That was a special circumstance for a special player. Alex is a special player and we hope he's here for his entire career, and we're giving him the second-highest pre-arbitration earnings that we've ever given in history and one of the top 10 in MLB history."

"I know it's not satisfying because he's a great player and no player is ever satisfied the year before they reach arbitration with the amount the club gives them. That's just the nature of our industry right now. That's the world we operate in, and next year when he reaches arbitration, he's going to begin to get paid at the level he deserves."

[Noe]

From what I gather from just keeping my ear to the ground, Bregman isn't going to be an Astro for his entire career. His heart is to be a Yankee player. His dad's favorite team and also a team Bregman would like to play for. I know it's not much that he's getting but he's not really hurt with the amount, he's just hurt because his ego won't allow him to be anything but one of the high paid players on the team.

[Ty in Tampa]

Bregman renewed at $640.5K

"I'm just disappointed and I feel like I outperformed that last year. I understand that it's a business, but I feel like good business would be wanting to make a player who performed at a high level on your team happy and want to feel like he wanted to be kept and feel like they wanted him to play here forever. I'm just disappointed it doesn't seem like the same amount of want."

Luhnow:

"The reason we went out of our way last year for Correa is he won Rookie of the Year [in 2015] and missed Super Two by one day, and we felt like we needed to make that up to him.  That was a special circumstance for a special player. Alex is a special player and we hope he's here for his entire career, and we're giving him the second-highest pre-arbitration earnings that we've ever given in history and one of the top 10 in MLB history."

"I know it's not satisfying because he's a great player and no player is ever satisfied the year before they reach arbitration with the amount the club gives them. That's just the nature of our industry right now. That's the world we operate in, and next year when he reaches arbitration, he's going to begin to get paid at the level he deserves."

They're both right and it does suck. I don't blame Bregman for being disappointed and I don't blame Luhnow for going by the book. I just hope it doesn't hinder extension talks, should it get to that.

[JimR]

I do blame Bregman. His ego is and will be a continuing potential problem. Second highest to Correa is good. Wait your fucking turn, and STFU.

[Ty in Tampa]

I don't blame him for being disappointed but you're right. His whininess is a bad look and the underlying "threat" of his statement is troubling.

[Lefty]

They're both right and it does suck. I don't blame Bregman for being disappointed and I don't blame Luhnow for going by the book. I just hope it doesn't hinder extension talks, should it get to that.

They've got 4 years to talk extension so I don't see this as a big deal.  If they're going to make statements to the public about stuff like this, I'm glad that at least they were both honest with us.

forgot the link:  https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/alex-bregman-disappointed-by-deal-renewal

I like the part where Bregman told them to just renew him at the minimum and the Stros gave him an extra 100K anyway.

[TerryPuhl21]

I do blame Bregman. His ego is and will be a continuing potential problem. Second highest to Correa is good. Wait your fucking turn, and STFU.

Well said Jim!


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[Waldo]

I like the part where Bregman told them to just renew him at the minimum and the Stros gave him an extra 100K anyway.

When I read that part of the article I kept checking to make sure McTaggart wasn't starting a new satire column.

[VirtualBob]

I do blame Bregman. His ego is and will be a continuing potential problem. Second highest to Correa is good. Wait your fucking turn, and STFU.

This. His silly stare and cockiness really wore thin last year. Please let him get back to his lovable self and just play!

[chuck]

This is 2020. All these guys, certainly the guys from North America, have grown up with social media. They have been the center of everyone's attention since they were six. Those of you yearning for the days of crew cuts and no batting gloves and guys who open their mouths only to spit a stream of Red Man are setting yourselves up for disappointment.

Of course, I'm the one most consternated by all these idiotic proposed rule changes, so I guess in some senses we're paddling up the same septic stream.

[JimR]

This is 2020. All these guys, certainly the guys from North America, have grown up with social media. They have been the center of everyone's attention since they were six. Those of you yearning for the days of crew cuts and no batting gloves and guys who open their mouths only to spit a stream of Red Man are setting yourselves up for disappointment.

Of course, I'm the one most consternated by all these idiotic proposed rule changes, so I guess in some senses we're paddling up the same septic stream.

I am not yearning for that. There is a salary structure, as there is in most businesses, and young pups must wait their turn. I wanted to make Partner a year early, but I did not. I had to STFU and wait my turn.

[Nate Colbert]

His silly stare and cockiness really wore thin last year.

As one of the oldest and fartiest of old farts, I loved it. I never got the impression he was trying to show up the other side at any time.

[chuck]

I am not yearning for that. There is a salary structure, as there is in most businesses, and young pups must wait their turn. I wanted to make Partner a year early, but I did not. I had to STFU and wait my turn.

You should have posted an angry video to your Vine.

[JimR]

You should have posted an angry video to your Vine.

Damn. I should have thought of that.

[Mr. Happy]

I do blame Bregman. His ego is and will be a continuing potential problem. Second highest to Correa is good. Wait your fucking turn, and STFU.

Agreed. Gotta call out my LSU boy here, especially a former No. 8. You knew the ropes and the rules when you got in. If you want to use your stardom to act for the younger players, do it. But in the meantime, play ball and STFU.

[juliogotay]

pretty good read about the Bregman thing. https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/alex-bregman-disappointed-by-deal-renewal

Maybe a better read is this https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2019/03/10/brewers-players-always-have-treated-legendary-bob-uecker-one-their-own/3108760002/

[Noe]

I am not yearning for that. There is a salary structure, as there is in most businesses, and young pups must wait their turn. I wanted to make Partner a year early, but I did not. I had to STFU and wait my turn.

I agree with Chuck though that we tend to forget that today's young MLBer grew up with PlayStation MLB games dreaming of being the best and since earning salaries that says you're the best tends to go with it, well... it's just hard not to have an ego when you *ARE* one of the best. Doesn't make it right but it does make it understandable.

[Noe]

As one of the oldest and fartiest of old farts, I loved it. I never got the impression he was trying to show up the other side at any time.

Same here on both counts... being an old fart and actually liking the stare.

[chuck]

I am definitely not a member of the STFU and play contingent, in any sport. I don't care if a player gets something off his chest, what Bregman said and how he plays don't bother me at all, Keuchel's bitching never bothered me at all, I don't even mind seeing players address topical issues regardless of whether it's Kaep or some dumbfuck like Schilling - I think if you have a platform and you have something to say, say it.

Of course there is a fairly clear line between speaking your mind and being an irredeemable dumbass like Tyler Bauer. That guy probably really should just STFU.

[Reuben]

I am definitely not a member of the STFU and play contingent, in any sport. I don't care if a player gets something off his chest, what Bregman said and how he plays don't bother me at all, Keuchel's bitching never bothered me at all, I don't even mind seeing players address topical issues regardless of whether it's Kaep or some dumbfuck like Schilling - I think if you have a platform and you have something to say, say it.

Of course there is a fairly clear line between speaking your mind and being an irredeemable dumbass like Tyler Bauer. That guy probably really should just STFU.

I agree with this. As a fan who badly wants to see my team win every single game, I often find myself subconsciously hoping the players will make as little money as possible, and wince, on some level, any time one of them complains about their salary. Then I have to remind myself that, although most of them make more money than I will ever see, they are employees of absurdly rich men/corporations, whom I have no sympathy for. MLB and its owners are making an insane amount of money.

So I don't blame Bregman for speaking out, I don't blame Blake Snell for speaking out after the Rays renewed him for relative pennies on the dollar, I don't blame Charlie Morton for going to another team that guaranteed him $30m over 2 years. It's a messed-up system, especially for young players, and while the MLBPA is partly to blame, at the heart of it they are a union, employed by a big huge corporation that wants to squeeze as much out of them as possible, for as little money as possible.

As long as a player's ego doesn't get so unchecked and out of touch that they become a complete self-absorbed jackass, I'm OK with it. When that point arrives is, of course, somewhat subjective.

[Noe]

As long as a player's ego doesn't get so unchecked and out of touch that they become a complete self-absorbed jackass, I'm OK with it. When that point arrives is, of course, somewhat subjective.

To that point, it's usually the teammates that will let a player know they will suffer through the jackassery to a point (usually winning baseball). But socially, those types of players dine alone or with only a select few players who can handle egotistical attitudes. Heck, it takes ego to play this game at the level they do, so you come to expect it as a player. That's why they will suffer a little bit of confidence from a fellow teammate. But when it becomes insufferable whining and bitching, it takes a good manager for one and a lot of great teammates for another and then a select few leaders in the clubhouse to keep things from getting out of hand. Usually, they'll say things like "he's a great teammate and I have enjoyed playing with him" even though the public perception of that player is an egotistical, self-absorbed player. See Harper, Bryce.

None of which is what Bregman is about in case anyone thinks I'm talking about him. I'm not, he's a good teammate and he's not saying anything bad about Correa that I know of. He's only talking about himself and how this hurt the ego to take a little above the league minimum in salary. It's relative to me because I've had offers to join organizations for a lower salary than I'm used to.  My ego won't allow me to entertain the offer seriously but it's nothing against the company and what they are chartered to do. I just can't do it.

[JimR]

Same here on both counts... being an old fart and actually liking the stare.

I am the oldest and also liked the stare.

[Bench]

"That's just the nature of our industry right now. That's the world we operate in, and next year when he reaches arbitration, he's going to begin to get paid at the level he deserves."

This admission should be the rejoinder to anyone dismissing criticisms of the tepid free agent market as just a "free market at work."

[HudsonHawk]

This admission should be the rejoinder to anyone dismissing criticisms of the tepid free agent market as just a "free market at work."

Ignoring that your definition of "tepid", where players are getting hundreds of millions, and guys like Martin Maldonado are turning down $6 million/year, is slightly different than mine, by your logic, the free market can only go up exponentially, never at a slower rate, and heaven forbid, actually decline due to increased supply.

[Bench]

Ignoring that your definition of "tepid", where players are getting hundreds of millions, and guys like Martin Maldonado are turning down $6 million/year, is slightly different than mine, by your logic, the free market can only go up exponentially, never at a slower rate, and heaven forbid, actually decline due to increased supply.

It's not a free market when the competition can be paid below market price.

[gundy315]

It's not a free market when the competition can be paid below market price.

But Bregman isn't a free agent.  He was tendered a contract pursuant to the collectively bargained-for framework, to which he implicitly agreed the day he joined the MLBPA.   Luhnow's comment on Bregman didn't have anything to do with the free agent/market.

[Bench]

But Bregman isn't a free agent.  He was tendered a contract pursuant to the collectively bargained-for framework, to which he implicitly agreed the day he joined the MLBPA.   Luhnow's comment on Bregman didn't have anything to do with the free agent/market.

Luhnow is saying Bregman deserves to be paid more, which is a sentiment I doubt anyone would dispute.

The fact that the CBA allows teams to underpay players like Bregman is why teams don't have to pay free agents a true free market price.

[HudsonHawk]

But Bregman isn't a free agent.  He was tendered a contract pursuant to the collectively bargained-for framework, to which he implicitly agreed the day he joined the MLBPA.   Luhnow's comment on Bregman didn't have anything to do with the free agent/market.

Bench's point is that it's not a free market when a replacement player under club control can be had for less than the going rate of an equivalent free agent.  Essentially that not all of the product is actually available on the market.  While that's true in the academic sense, he's also implying that it artificially drives down the value of those players who *are* free agents, and points to guys like Keuchel who are not getting their asking price.  My point is that 1) this is ignores the fact that Keuchel turned down 5 years/$90MM and 1 year/$18MM, which I believe actually *is* fair market value for a player like him, and he's simply overestimating his worth, and 2) clubs *are* throwing huge sums of money at guys.  They're just not throwing ridiculous money at mediocrity anymore.  Bench points to something nefarious afoot, I say the market for mediocrity has simply hit its natural ceiling.

[HudsonHawk]

Luhnow is saying Bregman deserves to be paid more, which is a sentiment I doubt anyone would dispute.

The fact that the CBA allows teams to underpay players like Bregman is why teams don't have to pay free agents a true free market price.

There is the argument that allowing club control actually increases the market value of free agents.  That if every player were simply free agents every year, it would flood the market and drive down the price for mid-level players.  It would certainly level the playing field, and be more merit based, rewarding guys like Bregman and Snell, but it wouldn't reward mid-tier players the same way the current system does and for not nearly as long.

[Ty in Tampa]

Luhnow is saying Bregman deserves to be paid more, which is a sentiment I doubt anyone would dispute.

The fact that the CBA allows teams to underpay players like Bregman is why teams don't have to pay free agents a true free market price.

But this isn't new. Just because you possess something of value that you earned doesn't mean you're hurting the free market by not participating in it. The free market is correcting itself by removing the stupidity.

[Bench]

There is the argument that allowing club control actually increases the market value of free agents.  That if every player were simply free agents every year, it would flood the market and drive down the price for mid-level players.  It would certainly level the playing field, and be more merit based, rewarding guys like Bregman and Snell, but it wouldn't reward mid-tier players the same way the current system does and for not nearly as long.

That could be. The NFL appears to have settled into a stars/scrubs dichotomy without a healthy middle class of players.

[Bench]

But this isn't new. Just because you possess something of value that you earned doesn't mean you're hurting the free market by not participating in it. The free market is correcting itself by removing the stupidity.

It's definitely not new.  It just irks me when people refer to free agency as a free market.

[gundy315]

Luhnow is saying Bregman deserves to be paid more, which is a sentiment I doubt anyone would dispute.

The fact that the CBA allows teams to underpay players like Bregman is why teams don't have to pay free agents a true free market price.

Ok, now I'm tracking.  The flip side is that free agents also agree to the CBA terms, so the fact that teams may underpay players like Bregman is a market condition of which they are fully-aware, prior to entering free agency.  I don't think teams are really arguing that this is a true free market -- the anti-trust exemption has been in place for 97 years.   It's A market with a peculiar set of rules that several players don't seem to fully understand.

I do see another challenge to the Anti-trust exemption brewing on the horizon...

[Knoxbanedoodle]

It's definitely not new.  It just irks me when people refer to free agency as a free market.

It seems to me that "free market" is most always a misnomer.

[Ty in Tampa]

It's definitely not new.  It just irks me when people refer to free agency as a free market.

It’s more like a monkey-slinging-poo market.

[moriartp]

I do see another challenge to the Anti-trust exemption brewing on the horizon...

The antitrust exemption is basically irrelevant here. It was repealed by statute for matters relating to labor issues. This is just a bad CBA for the players.

[das]

A question for nobody in general:  do players HAVE to join the union and conform to the CBA?

[Bench]

A question for nobody in general:  do players HAVE to join the union and conform to the CBA?

They don't have to be a member of the union, but they cannot contract independently of the CBA. Just as an example, I'm pretty sure Kevin Millar wasn't allowed to be a member of the union because he was a replacement player.

[das]

They don't have to be a member of the union, but they cannot contract independently of the CBA. Just as an example, I'm pretty sure Kevin Millar wasn't allowed to be a member of the union because he was a replacement player.

 That’s interesting. I wonder why non-union players are forced to align with an agreement that they are not party to. The law is pretty much settled, confirmed recently even, that union representation is not implied  or enforced a pond non-union members  in places that are vastly majority union.

[HudsonHawk]

That’s interesting. I wonder why non-union players are forced to align with an agreement that they are not party to. The law is pretty much settled, confirmed recently even, that union representation is not implied  or enforced a pond non-union members  in places that are vastly majority union.

I'm not a labor attorney, but I'm pretty sure unions are required to represent all employees in the bargaining unit fair and equally, not just union members.  These "free riders", as they're known around the shop, get the employer benefits derived from collective bargaining without having to pay for the representation.  That said, they also don't share in any union benefits, such as in the case of MLB, the union's take of merchandizing. 

And as for MLB players, no way they'd want to negotiate their own contract terms individually.  They have essentially zero power that way. 

[Ty in Tampa]

merchandizing. 

You did this to antagonise Limey, didn't you.

[Bench]

I'm not a labor attorney, but I'm pretty sure unions are required to represent all employees in the bargaining unit fair and equally, not just union members.  These "free riders", as they're known around the shop, get the employer benefits derived from collective bargaining without having to pay for the representation.  That said, they also don't share in any union benefits, such as in the case of MLB, the union's take of merchandizing. 

And as for MLB players, no way they'd want to negotiate their own contract terms individually.  They have essentially zero power that way.

I'm also not a labor lawyer, but that's my understanding as well.  Is the pension an MLBPA benefit or just part of the CBA?

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

You did this to antagonise Limey, didn't you.

I don't think Limey reads this side of the forum before September.

[HudsonHawk]

I'm also not a labor lawyer, but that's my understanding as well.  Is the pension an MLBPA benefit or just part of the CBA?

The pension is part of the CBA, and any player with a day of Major League service time is eligible and automatically enrolled.  Of course, it was bargained for by the MLBPA, but this is another case of non-union members getting the benefits of the collective bargaining, as well as another example of why players want to collectively bargain rather than each of 750 players trying to negotiate on his own.

[doyce7]

According to Chandler Rome on Twitter the Astros are finalizing an extension with Ryan Pressley for 2 years and 17.5 million with a vesting option for 2022

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[MusicMan]

According to Chandler Rome on Twitter the Astros are finalizing an extension with Ryan Pressley for 2 years and 17.5 million with a vesting option for 2022

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Rosenthal adds that the Astros and Bregman are in talks about a contract through his arbitration years.


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[hostros7]

Per Mark Berman:

MLB sources: The #Astros have reached an agreement on a six-year/$100 million contract with All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman that includes this season. Deal covers this year & the 3 years he'd be eligible for arbitration plus the first two years Alex can become a free agent.


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[geezerdonk]

Put a hold on the pinstripes.

[MusicMan]

I guess he wasn't too upset about that minimum renewal.

[das]

Per Mark Berman:

MLB sources: The #Astros have reached an agreement on a six-year/$100 million contract with All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman that includes this season. Deal covers this year & the 3 years he'd be eligible for arbitration plus the first two years Alex can become a free agent

 Excellent. I love the Pressley extension too.

[JimR]

Keep it up, Luhnow. JV, Cole, and the rest of the Core Four.

[MusicMan]

Excellent. I love the Pressley extension too.

If they add in JV and Cole I'll be fully extended.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Welcome news.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Bregman also just signed with Adidas.

Pretty good day for the bottom line.

[AtascAstro]

Tags with a correction.

CORRECTION: Alex Bregman contract is for 5 years, $100 million. So it buys out his three arb years ('20-'21-'22) and first two years of free agency ('23-'24)

[AtascAstro]

So...he'll make $100,640,500 over the next 6 years then?  Will be curious to see how that applies to the average contract value and if it pulls some of that amount forward into this year.

[MusicMan]

So...he'll make $100,640,500 over the next 6 years then?  Will be curious to see how that applies to the average contract value and if it pulls some of that amount forward into this year.

I suspect it's structured as a six year deal for luxury tax purposes.

[BizidyDizidy]

Would be very interested / appreciative if anyone (Nate?) has rough math on what his arbitration years would've been expected to be and what it implies for his free agency rate

[JimR]

Would be very interested / appreciative if anyone (Nate?) has rough math on what his arbitration years would've been expected to be and what it implies for his free agency rate

Yeah, boy. I won’t be able to sleep until I know this.

[Lefty]

I suspect it's structured as a six year deal for luxury tax purposes.

Looks to me like if it's spread over the 6 years, that puts our CBT total at $200M, with the tax threshold at $206, so they'd still have a little money to play with at the deadline.

[BizidyDizidy]

Yeah, boy. I won’t be able to sleep until I know this.

It's a 2 year extension - you may not be interested in what the amount of the extension is, but I am. In any event, it's not my money and happy to have Bregman extended, but curious what they paid.

[Nate Colbert]

Have to admit I'm still lacking some clarity on how the Bregman/Pressly extensions will impact the Astros' CBT calculations. Several older things I've read have suggested that whether or not an extension is signed prior to or after opening day is the key here. Sign before opening day and the extension is considered a modification of the existing contract and thus the AAV calculation period is consolidated and covers the final year of the "old" contract and the new contract years. If the extension is signed after opening day, then for AAV purposes there is no consolidation. I'm having some problem locating the exact language in the CBA which supports the above reading (there is some language that might support such a conclusion but the wording is dense enough that I can't quite get there).

I do know this: if both the Bregman and Pressly extensions are consolidated respectively for AAV purposes, then the hit for 2019 is massive and pushes the Astros' CBT payroll to $204.4MM. Which of course is less than $2MM from the threshold and would leave the Astros with little flexibility in adding a piece of any significance at the trade deadline. That alone tells me that the above interpretation has some merit and likely means at the very least the Bregman extension (which alone would otherwise have about a $16MM CBT hit while the Pressly extension has a potential $4MM CBT hit) won't be signed until after opening day.

[HudsonHawk]

Have to admit I'm still lacking some clarity on how the Bregman/Pressly extensions will impact the Astros' CBT calculations. Several older things I've read have suggested that whether or not an extension is signed prior to or after opening day is the key here. Sign before opening day and the extension is considered a modification of the existing contract and thus the AAV calculation period is consolidated and covers the final year of the "old" contract and the new contract years. If the extension is signed after opening day, then for AAV purposes there is no consolidation. I'm having some problem locating the exact language in the CBA which supports the above reading (there is some language that might support such a conclusion but the wording is dense enough that I can't quite get there).

I do know this: if both the Bregman and Pressly extensions are consolidated respectively for AAV purposes, then the hit for 2019 is massive and pushes the Astros' CBT payroll to $204.4MM. Which of course is less than $2MM from the threshold and would leave the Astros with little flexibility in adding a piece of any significance at the trade deadline. That alone tells me that the above interpretation has some merit and likely means at the very least the Bregman extension (which alone would otherwise have about a $16MM CBT hit while the Pressly extension has a potential $4MM CBT hit) won't be signed until after opening day.

The difference in signing the contract before or after Opening Day, is that if it's signed after Opening Day of a particular season, and that season's salary is guaranteed under the contract, then that season's salary is not included in the AAV equation, it's simply the base salary for that season, pro-rated based on when it was signed.  So it depends on what years are guaranteed by the extension in addition to when it is signed.  From what I've seen, the guaranteed years of Bregman's extension are 2020-2024, so the AAV calculation doesn't kick in until next season.  His 2019 CBT base salary is simply his salary for 2019, which is only $640,500. 

[moriartp]

Both extensions are really fantastic news. Some teams get built to fit a narrow contention window and fall into rebuilding after a couple years. This team is built to last.

As for the salary cap effects, does today count as opening day because of the game in Japan?

[Nate Colbert]

As for the salary cap effects, does today count as opening day because of the game in Japan?

That's a good question. I suspect the answer is no.

[HudsonHawk]

As for the salary cap effects, does today count as opening day because of the game in Japan?

The "International Opener" only affects those teams playing it.  For all other teams, the "championship season" commences on the day of the first regularly scheduled game in the US or Canada.

[Nate Colbert]

The difference in signing the contract before or after Opening Day, is that if it's signed after Opening Day of a particular season, and that season's salary is guaranteed under the contract, then that season's salary is not included in the AAV equation, it's simply the base salary for that season, pro-rated based on when it was signed.  So it depends on what years are guaranteed by the extension in addition to when it is signed.  From what I've seen, the guaranteed years of Bregman's extension are 2020-2024, so the AAV calculation doesn't kick in until next season.  His 2019 CBT base salary is simply his salary for 2019, which is only $640,500.

I think you're right in this.

[Reuben]

I think you're right in this.

Bregman gets a $10m signing bonus, according to Heyman. Would that affect how the AAV is calculated?

It seems to me like it might actually be better for the Astros if it includes 2019. Yes it pushes them closer to the cap for this year, but it gives you more room in the other 5 years. Going over by a few mil this year, if they have to, wouldn’t be that big a deal. It’s going over by a lot, and for multiple years in a row, that starts to get costly.

[HudsonHawk]

Bregman gets a $10m signing bonus, according to Heyman. Would that affect how the AAV is calculated?

It seems to me like it might actually be better for the Astros if it includes 2019. Yes it pushes them closer to the cap for this year, but it gives you more room in the other 5 years. Going over by a few mil this year, if they have to, wouldn’t be that big a deal. It’s going over by a lot, and for multiple years in a row, that starts to get costly.

I believe signing bonuses are prorated over the guaranteed years of the contract, regardless of when they are paid. So that doesn't affect the AAV Calc. But I'll have to double check.

[Lefty]

I think you're right in this.

Found this from '14, too bad it doesn't have a link to a source:

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which took effect starting in the 2012 season, eliminated the recalculation of a contract's AAV as a result of an extension. So long as the second deal does nothing to alter the terms of the first, the two contracts are treated as separate.

https://weei.radio.com/blogs/no-luxury-tax-implications-timing-extension-david-ortiz-or-jon-lester

I also can't find anything to see if any changes to this were made in the '17-21 CBA.

[gundy315]

It seems to me like it might actually be better for the Astros if it includes 2019. Yes it pushes them closer to the cap for this year, but it gives you more room in the other 5 years. Going over by a few mil this year, if they have to, wouldn’t be that big a deal. It’s going over by a lot, and for multiple years in a row, that starts to get costly.

On the other hand, the cap increases (marginally), year-to-year, and they currently have relatively little payroll commitments for 2020 and beyond.   Retaining some 2019 payroll flexibility -- some bullets in reserve -- is a smart move, IMO. 

Keeps the door open for, say, a certain veteran starter.

[gundy315]

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which took effect starting in the 2012 season, eliminated the recalculation of a contract's AAV as a result of an extension. So long as the second deal does nothing to alter the terms of the first, the two contracts are treated as separate.

FWIW,  MLBTraderumors' blurb on the Bregman deal says the extension doesn't affect the 2019 CBT figure; only 2020-2024.  I'm sure that's only the "salary" portion, though.  I suspect (but don't know) that at least a portion of the bonus counts against the 2019 cap.

[Noe]

Put a hold on the pinstripes.

That's funny, the same thing I thought!

[Lefty]

per Kaplan tweet, Pressly's option vests at 10M if he pitches 60 games in both '20 &'21

[HudsonHawk]

FWIW,  MLBTraderumors' blurb on the Bregman deal says the extension doesn't affect the 2019 CBT figure; only 2020-2024.  I'm sure that's only the "salary" portion, though.  I suspect (but don't know) that at least a portion of the bonus counts against the 2019 cap.

I double checked, and signing bonuses are pro-rated over the guaranteed years of the contract.  So Bregman's signing bonus does not affect 2019 CBT payroll. 

[Nate Colbert]

Jeff Passan  @JeffPassan 40s ago
Alex Bergman’s contract extension with the Houston Astros will begin next year and pay him $100M over five years, sources tell ESPN — $11M a year for the first three, $28.5M for final two and a $10M signing bonus. Deal also includes a limited no-trade clause: 10 teams in 2023-24.

[BUWebguy]

Rosenthal says the Astros are talking extensions with Verlander and Cole:
https://theathletic.com/882118/2019/03/22/rosenthal-the-astros-want-to-extend-verlander-and-cole-harper-on-choosing-philly-more-notes/

Excerpts from the section:

The Astros are discussing extensions with right-handers Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, according to major-league sources.

For Cole, who is eligible to hit the open market at the end of the season, Boras almost certainly would want a deal in excess of the largest contract awarded a free-agent starting pitcher this offseason — six years, $140 million to left-hander Patrick Corbin.

A short-term, high-dollar extension for Verlander, who will pitch at 37 in 2020, also would appear to be a long shot. The Astros, one of the game’s most analytically driven clubs, are unlikely to pay market value to a pitcher of Verlander’s age. And Verlander, who finished second in the 2018 Cy Young voting, probably would not want to take a pay cut from his current salary of $28 million.

(edited for clarity)

[Bench]

There's a press conference schedule for this afternoon with Crane, Luhnow, Hinch and a mystery guest, though I presume that will be the formal announcement of the Bregman extension.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Rosenthal says the Astros are talking extensions with Verlander and Cole:
https://theathletic.com/882118/2019/03/22/rosenthal-the-astros-want-to-extend-verlander-and-cole-harper-on-choosing-philly-more-notes/

This is such a weird quote.  Rosenthal leads by saying the Astros are talking extensions w/ both pitchers, and then gives reasons why the Astros wouldn't extend them because "analytics" or whatever.  If the team really is pursuing extensions, they've clearly decided that the analytics think it's a good idea too.

[gundy315]

This is such a weird quote.  Rosenthal leads by saying the Astros are talking extensions w/ both pitchers, and then gives reasons why the Astros wouldn't extend them because "analytics" or whatever.  If the team really is pursuing extensions, they've clearly decided that the analytics think it's a good idea too.

BUWG edited that clip to hit the highlights.  The thrust of the article is that the Astros want to extend JV and Cole, but it will be tough to get those deals done, especially for both (due to the reasons ID'd in the quote).

[JimR]

Both pitchers invited extension discussions. Altuve told Boras what he wanted and directed him to make it happen. Cole needs to do the same. Agents do not make decisions; players do.

[gundy315]

Agents do not make decisions; players do.

Should*   I don't think it always works that way, in practice.

[Jacksonian]

Should*   I don't think it always works that way, in practice.

Do. It works exactly as each player wants it to.

[BUWebguy]

BUWG edited that clip to hit the highlights.  The thrust of the article is that the Astros want to extend JV and Cole, but it will be tough to get those deals done, especially for both (due to the reasons ID'd in the quote).

Yeah - sorry for the confusion. I edited the post above to hopefully make that more clear.

[moriartp]

Chris Sale is signing an extension with Boston, 5 years/$150 mil. That'll take him to right about the age Verlander is now.

Edit: Rosenthal says it’s 5/$145m.

[JimR]

Should*   I don't think it always works that way, in practice.

Agency is a legal relationship with defined roles for the principal (the player) and the agent. If the player takes control, as did Altuve, the agent must follow his instructions. An agent has no legal power to control the relationship. He has no more power than the player gives him. Boras’ usual tactics are the tail wagging the dog, but the player allows it. Cole can say: “I want to stay in Houston. Make that happen.”

[HudsonHawk]

Should*   I don't think it always works that way, in practice.

It always works that way. Players call the shots, 100% of the time.

[das]

It always works that way. Players call the shots, 100% of the time.

Yup.  And, sometimes the shot they call is to yield material decision responsibility to their agent and the player simply signs what is put in front of them.  Which is stupid but people are sometimes naive, inexperienced or just basically not smart about these things.

[JimR]

Yup.  And, sometimes the shot they call is to yield material decision responsibility to their agent and the player simply signs what is put in front of them.  Which is stupid but people are sometimes naive, inexperienced or just basically not smart about these things.

I would love to see Boras’ contract with the players. I wonder if it gives him control.

[homer]

It always works that way. Players call the shots, 100% of the time.

We saw just the other day with Maldonado that this is not true.

[JimR]

We saw just the other day with Maldonado that this is not true.

No. Maldonado apparently gave Boras veto power and got screwed. There is no way legally. Ora’s can call the shots unless the player authorizes this power.

[Bench]

We saw just the other day with Maldonado that this is not true.

There's a difference between relying on bad advice and not having the authority to reject the bad advice.

[moriartp]

We saw just the other day with Maldonado that this is not true.

FWIW, Boras says the Astros signed Chirinos without ever making an actual offer to Maldonado. He did acknowledge they'd discussed a deal in line with the reported numbers, though.

The only reason I even think Boras' side of the story is worth mentioning is that Maldonado's new agent, Dan Lozano, is at least as big a POS as Boras and would not be above sharing some massaged facts with a reporter to make his competitor look bad. There's also a dispute over Maldonado's contract with KC—both agents claim to have negotiated that deal and are squabbling over the commission. Expect plenty of poo-flinging between them.

[moriartp]

Cole speaks:

"Since the parties involved in what has been called a 'contract negotiation' like to air out the laundry, I guess I'll bring everyone up to speed," Cole told The Chronicle on Friday, noting he "typically doesn't talk about business in the press."

"There have been no contract negotiations," Cole said.

Cole is represented by Scott Boras. Cole said the Astros approached him and "asked if it would be OK to contact my representatives about an extension."

"I told them they are free to call Scott whenever they want," Cole said. That was the extent of the conversation and since then, Scott has not been contacted by anyone from the club. This seems more like a phone call negotiation involving the media than anyone else."

[Noe]

I read an article a very long time ago about Scott Boras. I think it was around the time he had made his big splash as an agent getting A-Rod his 100 million dollar deal. The article mentioned what set Boras apart from other agents was his use of metrics (analytics). At the very least, his proposals to organizations were value-proposition documents bordering on volumes and volumes of data-driven pages. The article implied that the general managers were woefully unprepared for such analysis that they just took his work at face value.

But today, he doesn't have the same leverage he once had over GMs. He may use other agent strategies (tricks), including hypnosis ("Look at my watch... you're getting sleepy... sleepy") but if the article was right, his biggest advantage as an agent is no longer exclusive to only his side of the bargaining table.

[Bench]

McTaggart tweet: 

The Astros could have a contract extension in place with Justin Verlander prior to end of spring camp, owner Jim Crane said Friday.

“I don’t think anything is final, but if it’s going to get done it’s going to get done before we get out of here," Crane said

[HudsonHawk]

Yup.  And, sometimes the shot they call is to yield material decision responsibility to their agent and the player simply signs what is put in front of them.  Which is stupid but people are sometimes naive, inexperienced or just basically not smart about these things.

It's never that way.  Ever.  The player always maintains 100% control.  That's how it works.  Players can be influenced by their agents, buy into the bullshit the agent tells them, believe their own hype...but the player always has the power.  Always. 

[HudsonHawk]

We saw just the other day with Maldonado that this is not true.

We did not.  We saw Maldonado heed bad advice.  We did not see him at the mercy of his agent.  We then saw Maldonado fire his agent because of said bad advice. 

[JimR]

McTaggart tweet: 

The Astros could have a contract extension in place with Justin Verlander prior to end of spring camp, owner Jim Crane said Friday.

“I don’t think anything is final, but if it’s going to get done it’s going to get done before we get out of here," Crane said

 Be patient, Cole. They do one at a time.

[JimR]

It's never that way.  Ever.  The player always maintains 100% control.  That's how it works.  Players can be influenced by their agents, buy into the bullshit the agent tells them, believe their own hype...but the player always has the power.  Always.

Matt, have you ever seen a Boras agent contract?

[HudsonHawk]

Matt, have you ever seen a Boras agent contract?

I have not seen one for Boras in particular, but there is a standard MLB agent registration that outlines much of the player/agent relationship, what the agent can and cannot do on behalf of the player, etc.  You must be registered with MLB to represent a player.  I've seen contracts for other agents, as well.  It's much like a lawyer/client contract.

[JimR]

I have not seen one for Boras in particular, but there is a standard MLB agent registration that outlines much of the player/agent relationship, what the agent can and cannot do on behalf of the player, etc.  You must be registered with MLB to represent a player.  I've seen contracts for other agents, as well.  It's much like a lawyer/client contract.

Are all agents required to use the standard MLB form contract or are they free to modify it?

[HudsonHawk]

Are all agents required to use the standard MLB form contract or are they free to modify it?

Contract between the player and agent?  There is a standard "Player Agent Designation" form, but t's pretty basic and just says "I'm naming Joe Schmoe as my agent".  The formal contract between the player and agent may differ, but it has to comply with the rules set forth by and approved by the MLBPA.  The player/agent relationship is heavily controlled by the MLBPA, and the union basically calls the shots on who gets to be an agent and the standards of conduct for agent.  Agents have to apply for registration, pass a written test, a background check, and agree to list of rules when representing players.  There are loyalty clauses, limits on agency fees, standards of agent conduct, disciplinary procedures, etc.  I would think it's much like a contract between an attorney and client. 

[JimR]

Report: JV nearing extension. 2 years, $66 million

[Lefty]

I don't see any way they can afford Cole now, but I like this move.

[JimR]

I don't see any way they can afford Cole now, but I like this move.

You ain’t Crane Luhnow.

[Lefty]

You ain’t Crane Luhnow.

Sure, if Crane decides that he doesn't mind paying the luxury tax of course they can afford it.

[jaklewein]

Sure, if Crane decides that he doesn't mind paying the luxury tax of course they can afford it.

Couldn’t they backload Cole’s contract?  That’s essentially what they did with Bregman’s 

[HudsonHawk]

Couldn’t they backload Cole’s contract?  That’s essentially what they did with Bregman’s

A player's hit on the CBT is the average annual value (AAV) over the guaranteed years.  Backloading the contract doesn't affect salary for luxury tax purposes.

[jaklewein]

Thanks Hudson. I did not know that.

[TerryPuhl21]

You ain’t Crane Luhnow.

While agree with you Jim, Crane/Luhnow can do anything they want, I think signing Cole is far fetched IF they intend to keep Springer and Correa. Cole’s deal will be 5-7 years most likely and will be mid $20M’s. Even with Verlander off the books in 3 years, if they sign all of the core 4 and Cole, that will be 5 players making $100-120M. I can’t see a scenario where that works. Now if they have decided that are only keeping one of Springer and Correa, it is a little more palatable.

A lot may depend on the kind of year Correa has this season. Does he stay healthy? Does he take the next step to MVP type of player??


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[HudsonHawk]

Thanks Hudson. I did not know that.

It's specifically to prevent backloading contracts to avoid a CBT hit.

[JimR]

While agree with you Jim, Crane/Luhnow can do anything they want, I think signing Cole is far fetched IF they intend to keep Springer and Correa. Cole’s deal will be 5-7 years most likely and will be mid $20M’s. Even with Verlander off the books in 3 years, if they sign all of the core 4 and Cole, that will be 5 players making $100-120M. I can’t see a scenario where that works. Now if they have decided that are only keeping one of Springer and Correa, it is a little more palatable.

A lot may depend on the kind of year Correa has this season. Does he stay healthy? Does he take the next step to MVP type of player??


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Who cares what you think? You ain’t Crane Luhnow. Hide and watch.

[moriartp]

Report: JV nearing extension. 2 years, $66 million

Oh fuck yeah

Crane/Luhnow can do anything they want

That's all that matters right there. Crane can afford as much as he pleases. All I care is that he does his best to bring more trophies home, and right now that's what he's doing.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Fantastic that they extended Verlander! I want him to retire an Astro,, win 300 games, and wear the cap with the star when he goes in the HoF.

[MusicMan]

While agree with you Jim, Crane/Luhnow can do anything they want, I think signing Cole is far fetched IF they intend to keep Springer and Correa. Cole’s deal will be 5-7 years most likely and will be mid $20M’s. Even with Verlander off the books in 3 years, if they sign all of the core 4 and Cole, that will be 5 players making $100-120M. I can’t see a scenario where that works. Now if they have decided that are only keeping one of Springer and Correa, it is a little more palatable.

A lot may depend on the kind of year Correa has this season. Does he stay healthy? Does he take the next step to MVP type of player??


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I wouldn’t be so sure they’ll extend Springer.


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[JimR]

Oh fuck yeah


That's all that matters right there. Crane can afford as much as he pleases. All I care is that he does his best to bring more trophies home, and right now that's what he's doing.

This, this, this. Does anyone doubt they have a plan? Crane said at the outset of ST they wanted to extend both pitchers, and I’ll bet they try. Handwringing posts about money and luxury tax saying what the Astros will or won’t do are a waste of time to type and an even bigger waste of time to read. It is Crane’s money, and he has had a taste of winning big and likes it. We fans owe him a million thanks.

[juliogotay]

I wouldn’t be so sure they’ll extend Springer.


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Sure hasn't been any indication has there?

[HudsonHawk]

This, this, this. Does anyone doubt they have a plan? Crane said at the outset of ST they wanted to extend both pitchers, and I’ll bet they try. Handwringing posts about money and luxury tax saying what the Astros will or won’t do are a waste of time to type and an even bigger waste of time to read. It is Crane’s money, and he has had a taste of winning big and likes it. We fans owe him a million thanks.

And why all of this obsession with staying under the CBT number?  Sure it's a few extra bucks, but it's not the end of the world for players who are worth it.  This year the CBT base is $206MM.  If the Astros were at say $210MM, they'd owe an additional $800,000 in tax.  It's money you'd hope to not spend, but it's not gonna put them in hock.  And if it means signing Verlander or Cole or Correa or Springer...

[drew corleone]

It's just money owed, then? There's no other penalty? For some reason I thought it affected the International signing pool or the draft pool.

[HudsonHawk]

It's just money owed, then? There's no other penalty? For some reason I thought it affected the International signing pool or the draft pool.

The CBT is just money owed.  Mostly.  There are different thresholds, and if you cross the top threshold, exceed the base by more than $40MM, you have your first round pick the next season moved back ten spots, unless it's a top six pick. 

[Nate Colbert]

And why all of this obsession with staying under the CBT number?

Because the owner has said he won't exceed it. Don't know/don't care about that, then don't read the fucking thread and whine about others who do so.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

I'm appreciative that the owner and management team are committed to winning. It's their money to spend how they choose. I like what they've chosen so far.

[JimR]

Because the owner has said he won't exceed it. Don't know/don't care about that, then don't read the fucking thread and whine about others who do so.

He also said he wants to extend Verlander and Cole. Things change and so may his attitude about the luxury tax if he has a chance to keep the core players together. I read all the insightful threads you post, Nate, but I reserve the right to not care about spending money which is not mine.

ETA: I think the best example of changing circumstances is JV’s inviting extension discussions, then saying he would take a short term deal. Do you think Crane or Luhnow expected that? Did you? Then Cole said he too was open to extension talks. If he is able to extend the Core Four, JV, and Cole, don’t you think it is possible his prior decisions about how much to spend may change? I do.

[Sambito]

Fantastic that they extended Verlander! I want him to retire an Astro,, win 300 games, and wear the cap with the star when he goes in the HoF.

This this and more this!!!!

[DVauthrin]

Instead of worrying about the luxury tax and future extensions, I’d rather celebrate the fact that Jim Crane and Lunhow are willing to do what it takes to keep the core of a great baseball team together.  Kudos to them for getting extensions done with Altuve, Bregman, Verlander, and Pressly.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Build a contender and contend for multiple years.

As a fan what more could you ask?

[moriartp]

Rosenthal/Heyman/Passan et al. now confirming the deal is done at the terms Feinsand reported yesterday.

Having trouble putting the excitement I’m feeling into words, but I imagine y’all get it.

[JimR]

Build a contender and contend for multiple years.

As a fan what more could you ask?

Best owner in Astros history. Small club.

[Lefty]

Build a contender and contend for multiple years.

As a fan what more could you ask?

Crane told us what he wanted to do, then he has done it, and now set us up to keep doing it.

I don't think anybody is worrying about anything, it's just something to talk about in a ST where things were pretty set and there hasn't been much to discuss.

Best owner in Astros history. Small club.

Best owner in Houston history.

[JimR]

Crane told us what he wanted to do, then he has done it, and now set us up to keep doing it.

I don't think anybody is worrying about anything, it's just something to talk about in a ST where things were pretty set and there hasn't been much to discuss.

Best owner in Houston history.

I do not follow other Houston sports team, but you undoubtedly are right.

[MusicMan]

Best owner in Astros history. Small club.

Him and Les Alexander.


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[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Him and Les Alexander.


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George Maloof was a good owner but then he died.

[juliogotay]

Crane was interested in buying the Rangers when they were available from the Bush-led team. For whatever reason it didn't work out. The Dallas Morning News did a piece on him that painted him as somewhat of a sketchy character. Essentially a guy that wouldn't put the $$ into it to be competitive and then would flip it for the profits IIRC. Whatever it was, it wasn't a real flattering piece. I'll see if I can find it.

[doyce7]

Crane was interested in buying the Rangers when they were available from the Bush-led team. For whatever reason it didn't work out. The Dallas Morning News did a piece on him that painted him as somewhat of a sketchy character. Essentially a guy that wouldn't put the $$ into it to be competitive and then would flip it for the profits IIRC. Whatever it was, it wasn't a real flattering piece. I'll see if I can find it.

Pretty sure there were similar articles when he took over the Astros.

He's been a great owner so far. He(and Luhnow) didn't beat around the bush and give the bullshit "we're going to compete" line that most owners spill. He made no secret that it was going to be bad for a while but that things would turn around and that the money would be there when the time came. The time is now and the money is here. It's quite refreshing to have an owner that is(seems) honest and puts his money where his mouth is.

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[HudsonHawk]

Him and Les Alexander.


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Alexander was hard to beat as an owner.  But Crane has been pretty damn good so far too.

[BizidyDizidy]

Don't need to go searching for "similar articles" - there was a pretty vocal contingent of this board who compared him unfavorably to Snidely Whiplash at any available opportunity.

[JimR]

Don't need to go searching for "similar articles" - there was a pretty vocal contingent of this board who compared him unfavorably to Snidely Whiplash at any available opportunity.

Yep

[jaklewein]

 Yes they won a World Series title in  ‘17,  but even if they hadn’t all I can say about the last couple years from Altuve being extended to the Verlander extension would be this... this should be considered the golden age in terms of being an Astros fan!

[Lefty]

Him and Les Alexander.


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Alexander inherited that team and those trophies from Charlie Thomas. 

He took those 2 trophies to Florida with him when he sold the team, btw.

[Waldo]

Pretty sure there were similar articles when he took over the Astros.

He's been a great owner so far. He(and Luhnow) didn't beat around the bush and give the bullshit "we're going to compete" line that most owners spill. He made no secret that it was going to be bad for a while but that things would turn around and that the money would be there when the time came. The time is now and the money is here. It's quite refreshing to have an owner that is(seems) honest and puts his money where his mouth is.

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And, perhaps more than anything, he has let the baseball people do their fucking jobs, and in fact has given them arguably the best possible resources to do their jobs better than their counterparts in other orgs.  Crane is a massive improvement over the meddling, Pam-Gardner-enabling McLane.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Alexander inherited that team and those trophies from Charlie Thomas. 

He took those 2 trophies to Florida with him when he sold the team, btw.

Charlie sold the team to Les after the 92-93 season.

[HudsonHawk]

Alexander inherited that team and those trophies from Charlie Thomas. 

He took those 2 trophies to Florida with him when he sold the team, btw.

He was still a great owner.

[Lefty]

He was still a great owner.

I disagree, but that's ok.

[Noe]

Couldn’t they backload Cole’s contract?  That’s essentially what they did with Bregman’s

What they did with Bregman is to have his extension start next year instead of this year. That means it's next year's payroll that will necessitate for Crane/Luhnow to worry about luxury tax implications, not this year. Cole's has this year in his contract before he is a free agent and he can refuse to negotiate until after the season is done. But if they extend him, it will be starting next season that he'll get his raise. With Altuve, Bregman, Verlander and probably Cole's salary, you'll have a good chunk of change to pay out. But I think Reddick comes off the books or will need to be traded this offseason to take in some salary relief.

That's why you want kids like Straw, Fisher and Tucker ready in the minors to grab a major league gig. The payroll would need that relief.

[Noe]

While agree with you Jim, Crane/Luhnow can do anything they want, I think signing Cole is far fetched IF they intend to keep Springer and Correa. Cole’s deal will be 5-7 years most likely and will be mid $20M’s. Even with Verlander off the books in 3 years, if they sign all of the core 4 and Cole, that will be 5 players making $100-120M. I can’t see a scenario where that works. Now if they have decided that are only keeping one of Springer and Correa, it is a little more palatable.

A lot may depend on the kind of year Correa has this season. Does he stay healthy? Does he take the next step to MVP type of player??


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The leverage the Astros have to consider is Whitley and if he's ready to be a major leaguer. If you pay Cole, you can't afford high priced starters, so you probably lose McHugh. So you could go with Verlander, Cole, and Whitley starting next season and maybe either Corbin Martin or JBB and a low-cost free agent starter. If you lose Cole, then it's Verlander, Whitley, Corbin Martin and maybe JBB and a journeyman. But that is what *this* season is for, to judge what you have in those young guns.

If you do that, I think you'll not have to worry about paying Correa and Springer if they are considered indispensable. You just can't go out and buy expensive free agents... rely on the farm system instead so you can pay those talented young guys that are homegrown.

[Noe]

Yes they won a World Series title in  ‘17,  but even if they hadn’t all I can say about the last couple years from Altuve being extended to the Verlander extension would be this... this should be considered the golden age in terms of being an Astros fan!

You've hit on a very important point in your post. The Houston Astros have grown up to be a baseball town. I know many do not want to admit it, but St. Louis is the type of organization players want to go play for because of the traditions and because St. Louis is known as a baseball town. What that means is they are loyal, understand what it takes to run a winning organization and expect it from the team and organization. IOW - they don't take the bullshit you see other owners and organizations pull on mid to small market teams. So St. Louis is not a high market team, they are in the Midwest with fans who have been loyal to the team for generations. In Houston, we're about 50 years behind them in generations worth of fans.

But I don't think it's lost to Crane that Houston has turned a corner when it comes to being a fan. You see them travel well, support the team, it's literally a lovefest relationship with the team that brought them a World Series (finally) and said they did it for "Houston Strong". That's a lot of goodwill built up. But guess what, you can turn that in your favor or ignore it. Crane is no fool, he sees the opportunity for more loyalty with the young core of great players and a good crop of veterans too. You don't have to be loyal to all the players, but you better pay attention to the ones that fans really like. Altuve, Bregman, and Verlander. I say Mr. Crane has a keen eye what are the Astros favorites. But you can afford to lose a Charlie Morton or a Dallas Keuchel too because while they are favorites to many of us, are they favorites to all Astros fans? I doubt it, ask any fringe Astros fan and they'll say we could afford to lose Charlie. Be sure not to punch them in the mouth though, that's unbecoming. But ask the same fringe Astros fan if they can afford to lose Verlander and the answer is very different. In fact, I bet they'd point to the back of the Astros jersey they are wearing... you can bet it will have either Altuve, Bregman or Verlander on the back. Keep building the tradition in Houston of good baseball and one day many more fans will point to the front of the jersey too. Crane knows he has a chance to make a lasting mark in Houston for many years to come and it's no time to be penny-wise and pound-foolish.

Jim Crane is no fool.

[juliogotay]

Noe, I think Springer belongs in that fan-favorite grouping.

[Noe]

Noe, I think Springer belongs in that fan-favorite grouping.

I got his jersey, so I totally agree. Also on Correa. That's your core for many years to come. Everyone else is judged by a different set of criteria for the huge contracts - IMHO.

They had good performance from Brian McCann and he's now gone. Charlie Morton too. Dallas Keuchel. Before Josh Reddick, there was Colby Rasmus. Then there is Marwin Gonzales too. Evan Gattis, a good guy who helped them too.

But you can't pay everyone. But you certainly have to choose who is your core and you cannot afford *NOT* to pay. And then trust that farm system you have to keep the wheels turning and keep a winning tradition going in H-Town. That is what is going on *IMHO* because it is smart business now to do so. And I say Jim Crane didn't become rich by not being able to read a smart business deal when he sees it. It's got ROI written all over it.

[toddthebod]

Fantastic that they extended Verlander! I want him to retire an Astro,, win 300 games, and wear the cap with the star when he goes in the HoF.

I feel like I need to buy a Verlander jersey now.  You know, to support the team.  Except I buy my jerseys from some discount website in China and I think it's unlikely that Crane or anyone else in the Astros organization sees a dime of it.  But hey, jersey.

[Lefty]

I'm slightly confused by this Chandler Rome tweet:  Justin Verlander's new contract begins this season and adds two more years of team control, through 2021. His $66 million — and $33 million AAV — does not kick in until 2020. He will make $28 million this season.

The contract either includes this season (and the AAV would be recalculated, no?) or it kicks in in '20, can't be both, right?

[juliogotay]

Makes one feel good to be an Astros fan. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26349570/astros-deal-part-new-wave-mlb

And good to have Verlander on our side.

[JimR]

Makes one feel good to be an Astros fan. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26349570/astros-deal-part-new-wave-mlb

And good to have Verlander on our side.

I hope Cole was at the brief press conference:

“This is the best organization in baseball. This is the best team in baseball.”

A HOF pitcher wants to stay in Houston.

Call me Pollyanna, but I hope someday the importance of team and organization will transcend more millions piled on top of already many millions. “I owe it my family” is bullshit. You and they already are set for life, and you are helping, not hurting, them if you stay in an environment in which you and they are happy. As for Cole, he has said and must recognize being in Houston made him the dominant pitcher he is today. His quote last year was spot on: “I would have never done this in Pittsburgh.” Springer and Correa have made their homes in Houston and are very active in the community. In the world my Pollyanna self lives in, all of these players should want to stay if the organization makes the sincere, good faith effort to keep them it has with the other extended players.

Crane and Luhnow have a plan. I am eager to see how it unfolds.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Instead of worrying about the luxury tax and future extensions, I’d rather celebrate the fact that Jim Crane and Lunhow are willing to do what it takes to keep the core of a great baseball team together.  Kudos to them for getting extensions done with Altuve, Bregman, Verlander, and Pressly.

Remember in 2016 when it looked like Scott Feldman was the biggest FA ($ wise) we'd ever signed under Crane, and everyone thought we were going to look more like the Marlins (burn, surge, then burn again) than the cream of the AL?

[Bench]

I hope Cole was at the brief press conference:

“This is the best organization in baseball. This is the best team in baseball.”

A HOF pitcher wants to stay in Houston.

Call me Pollyanna, but I hope someday the importance of team and organization will transcend more millions piled on top of already many millions. “I owe it my family” is bullshit. You and they already are set for life, and you are helping, not hurting, them if you stay in an environment in which you and they are happy. As for Cole, he has said and must recognize being in Houston made him the dominant pitcher he is today. His quote last year was spot on: “I would have never done this in Pittsburgh.” Springer and Correa have made their homes in Houston and are very active in the community. In the world my Pollyanna self lives in, all of these players should want to stay if the organization makes the sincere, good faith effort to keep them it has with the other extended players.

Crane and Luhnow have a plan. I am eager to see how it unfolds.

I can't tell from the article whether Verlander's line "It was something that was important to me,"  is about being one of the highest paid pitchers or just getting an extension. The context is not very clear.

[JimR]

I can't tell from the article whether Verlander's line "It was something that was important to me,"  is about being one of the highest paid pitchers or just getting an extension. The context is not very clear.

There was a video on At Bat yesterday which clearly expressed the important thing to him was staying in Houston. The Astros course use it as a sales pitch when negotiating with other FA pitchers.

[Bench]

Yesterday the bullpen held their own press conference for Ryan Pressly

[JimR]

Yesterday the bullpen held their own press conference for Ryan Pressly

Special team

[TeeJoe]

Yesterday the bullpen held their own press conference for Ryan Pressly

Sometimes I think about getting on Twitter just to follow Astros related stuff. But then some kid distracts me by standing on my lawn.

[TeeJoe]

For us non-twits, what'd they do/say?

[Waldo]

I can't tell from the article whether Verlander's line "It was something that was important to me,"  is about being one of the highest paid pitchers or just getting an extension. The context is not very clear.

This tweet from the Astros has the press conference video:

https://twitter.com/astros/status/1109840582376071169

The context is that having the higher/highest AAV was important to him because it was only a two-year extension.  The team apparently didn't want to do a longer deal, so Verlander wanted the higher AAV to compensate.

[JimR]

Watch the entire press conference and listen to what he says about the Astros: “special place,” “special team,” “best organization in baseball,” ”best team in baseball,”  “I want to be a part of the atmosphere created here,” “I do not want to be any place else.”

In response to a direct question about highest AAV, he made clear, as Waldo said,  it was a negotiating point: he would accept a short term deal, which he invited and which is unusual, in return for the highest AAV.

This press conference should be used as a recruiting tool.

[geezerdonk]

Particularly damning to Keuchel. He could have been part of this and making $18MM to boot.

[hostros7]

DeGrom agreed to a 5 year, $137.5mm extension. Although the situations are somewhat different, Cole will be interested in that data point.


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[TerryPuhl21]

DeGrom agreed to a 5 year, $137.5mm extension. Although the situations are somewhat different, Cole will be interested in that data point.


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The report I saw said the “new” money he was getting was 4 @ $120.5M which is an AAV of just over $30M for the “new” money. That is interesting because Sunday on the front office show, both Bowden and Duquette were speculating that it would take 6 @ $185 to sign Cole. That would be an AAV of just over $30M.


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[das]

The report I saw said the “new” money he was getting was 4 @ $120.5M which is an AAV of just over $30M for the “new” money. That is interesting because Sunday on the front office show, both Bowden and Duquette were speculating that it would take 6 @ $185 to sign Cole. That would be an AAV of just over $30M

I REALLY like Cole. I REALLY don’t like a 6 year deal.  If he has another great year this year, he may get it but I’m not sure I’d want the Astros to be the takers. Problem is, I’m not sure he takes an extension that does not push the time out. Here’s to hoping the Astros brass work their magic...

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

I REALLY like Cole. I REALLY don’t like a 6 year deal.  If he has another great year this year, he may get it but I’m not sure I’d want the Astros to be the takers. Problem is, I’m not sure he takes an extension that does not push the time out. Here’s to hoping the Astros brass work their magic...

If I were betting, I'd say that the team trades during the season for another high-end arm with years remaining.  Wouldn't you rather have Kluber at ~$18MM/year through 2021 than Cole at $30MM?

[BudGirl]

If I were betting, I'd say that the team trades during the season for another high-end arm with years remaining.  Wouldn't you rather have Kluber at ~$18MM/year through 2021 than Cole at $30MM?

I'd rather have both.

[Lefty]

If I were betting, I'd say that the team trades during the season for another high-end arm with years remaining.  Wouldn't you rather have Kluber at ~$18MM/year through 2021 than Cole at $30MM?

Another deal with the Pirates but this time for Taillon.

[TerryPuhl21]

I REALLY like Cole. I REALLY don’t like a 6 year deal.  If he has another great year this year, he may get it but I’m not sure I’d want the Astros to be the takers. Problem is, I’m not sure he takes an extension that does not push the time out. Here’s to hoping the Astros brass work their magic...

Cole is 28 years old so a 6 year deal takes him to age 34. I don’t think that is necessarily unreasonable. The top pitchers in the sport will get paid until that age or longer. The question is whether the Astros think Cole is one of the top pitchers who is worth that. I personally think he is but I don’t count.


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[Mr. Happy]

This, this, this. Does anyone doubt they have a plan? Crane said at the outset of ST they wanted to extend both pitchers, and I’ll bet they try. Handwringing posts about money and luxury tax saying what the Astros will or won’t do are a waste of time to type and an even bigger waste of time to read. It is Crane’s money, and he has had a taste of winning big and likes it. We fans owe him a million thanks.

This. This right here. They've got a plan. All I know is that I'm not privy to it. But in Luhnow I trust, with Crane's backing.

[toddthebod]

I'm not sure that DeGrom is entirely comparable to Cole -- he had more years to free agency, but is regarded as the pitcher -- received what appeared to be a massive contract, but according to Heyman, much of the money is deferred without interest, significantly lowering the value of the contract.   So maybe this is a deal Astros could offer to Cole. 

Signing Bonus - $10M
2019 - 7M
2020 - 23M, 12M deferred w/o interest
2021 - 33.5M, 13.5M deferred w/o int
2022 - 33.5M, 15M deferred w/o int
2023 - 30.5M, 12M deferred w/o int
2024 - Club Option - 32.5M, 15M deferred w/o interest
Player may void after 2022.
Full No Trade.

[Noe]

I'm not sure that DeGrom is entirely comparable to Cole -- he had more years to free agency, but is regarded as the pitcher -- received what appeared to be a massive contract, but according to Heyman, much of the money is deferred without interest, significantly lowering the value of the contract.   So maybe this is a deal Astros could offer to Cole. 

Signing Bonus - $10M
2019 - 7M
2020 - 23M, 12M deferred w/o interest
2021 - 33.5M, 13.5M deferred w/o int
2022 - 33.5M, 15M deferred w/o int
2023 - 30.5M, 12M deferred w/o int
2024 - Club Option - 32.5M, 15M deferred w/o interest
Player may void after 2022.
Full No Trade.

Who is Cole's agent? I know it's been discussed that the agent works for the player and all, but seriously, why would an agent think a deferred no interest deal is good for the interest of the player? Unless the player wants to play only for said team and is willing to leave money on the table to do so. Has anyone even heard Cole say he would do so? I remember Lance Berkman being asked if he would give the Houston Astros a "home town deal" once he was in his walk year. Meaning would he sign for less to stay in Houston just because he was from Houston (Sugarland)? He said "Heck no, it's business" he said and that was the end of that.

[Bench]

Who is Cole's agent?

Boras

[doyce7]

I'm not sure that DeGrom is entirely comparable to Cole -- he had more years to free agency, but is regarded as the pitcher -- received what appeared to be a massive contract, but according to Heyman, much of the money is deferred without interest, significantly lowering the value of the contract.   So maybe this is a deal Astros could offer to Cole. 

Signing Bonus - $10M
2019 - 7M
2020 - 23M, 12M deferred w/o interest
2021 - 33.5M, 13.5M deferred w/o int
2022 - 33.5M, 15M deferred w/o int
2023 - 30.5M, 12M deferred w/o int
2024 - Club Option - 32.5M, 15M deferred w/o interest
Player may void after 2022.
Full No Trade.

Cole is also 2 full years younger than Degrom

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[TerryPuhl21]

Cole is also 2 full years younger than Degrom

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And that is the main reason why most baseball talking heads on radio and tv think it will take a minimum of 6 years to sign Cole.


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[mrpink]

I remember Lance Berkman being asked if he would give the Houston Astros a "home town deal" once he was in his walk year. Meaning would he sign for less to stay in Houston just because he was from Houston (Sugarland)? He said "Heck no, it's business" he said and that was the end of that.

Berkman went to Canyon High School in New Braunfels.  Also, if the quote below is what you're thinking of then "Heck no" isn't exactly what he said.  If he did say that some other time, I apologize.

This is from MLB Trade Rumors.  The original link to the Berman article is dead.

"It just depends on what kind of money they are talking about," Berkman said.  "Am I going to come back for a couple of million bucks, no.  If they want to pay me close to what I feel like my value is in terms of what I bring to the table…if they're going to ask me to be there and hit third and play every day and DH every day, I want to be compensated like a guy who is a Major League three-hole hitter.

"Obviously I would be willing to take a little bit less because it's my hometown and for the opportunity to get back to the Astros organization.  I'm just waiting for them to make some sort [of] offer and go from there."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/lance-berkman-open-to-playing-for-astros.html

[Noe]

Berkman went to Canyon High School in New Braunfels.  Also, if the quote below is what you're thinking of then "Heck no" isn't exactly what he said.  If he did say that some other time, I apologize.

This is from MLB Trade Rumors.  The original link to the Berman article is dead.

"It just depends on what kind of money they are talking about," Berkman said.  "Am I going to come back for a couple of million bucks, no.  If they want to pay me close to what I feel like my value is in terms of what I bring to the table…if they're going to ask me to be there and hit third and play every day and DH every day, I want to be compensated like a guy who is a Major League three-hole hitter.

"Obviously I would be willing to take a little bit less because it's my hometown and for the opportunity to get back to the Astros organization.  I'm just waiting for them to make some sort [of] offer and go from there."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/lance-berkman-open-to-playing-for-astros.html

He said it on the Lance Zerlien show. And he did say "Heck no..." to the question asked of him from a caller. He followed that with his own question "Would you take a cut in pay from your job simply because they asked you to? I wouldn't." He was adamant, he wasnt't taking a cut in pay just because it was Houston. And again, he lived in Sugarland at the time and entrenched in the community. That is what was meant by hometown discount. I knew he was from New Braunfels and spent a lot of time in Austin too. But he went to school at Rice and lives in Sugarland.