2016 Draft

[Nate Colbert]

With selection day roughly 3 months away, the draft order has now been finalized with all the QO guys having signed. Astros pick 17th (and then at #61, #97 and then every 30 picks after that). The bonus pool amount is $5,865,700 which ranks 22nd (winning is a motherfucker, ain't it?). Could be worse--the Rangers have just $3,293,006 available to spend.

[Nate Colbert]

College players that I'll be keeping an eye on during the spring and who may be available when the Astros pick in the 1st 3-5 rounds:

Nick Banks, OF--the Aggie player hit .364/.450/.536 in 2015 (including .339/.419/.514 in SEC play). Played for Team USA last summer and BA had him pegged as the 4th-best prospect on the squad. Never drafted.
Kyle Funkhouser, RHP--yep, him again. Turned down nearly $2MM from the Dodgers as the 35th overall pick. Looks to be as frustrating as ever--he's walked 11 in 8.2 IP in his first two starts of this season.
Ryan Boldt, OF--the Huskers CF is one of the few reasons to turn on the Big Ten Network this spring. Rated the 2nd best prospect in the CCL this past summer. 22nd-rounder in 2013 despite a torn meniscus.
Bryan Reynolds, OF--the Dores switch-hitter came in at #5 on BA's list of top prospects in the Cape. Never previously drafted.
Cal Quantrill, RHP--the Stanford pitcher (and son of Paul) is coming back from TJS but is not expected to pitch until April or May. 26th round pick of the Yankees as a HSer in 2013.
Matt Krook, LHP--the Oregon pitcher is also returning from TJS (has already made 2 starts for the Ducks this season). A first round supplemental pick in 2013, the club doctors saw what was in his future arm-wise and the Marlins yanked their offer.
Jordan Sheffield, RHP--he of the blazing FB but the inability to direct it to the preferred location. The Vandy starter and draft-eligible sophomore was taken by the Red Sox in the 13th round in 2013.
Cavan Biggio, 2B--some questions about the stick but draws walks like his old man (a .258 batting average for Notre Dame last year but a .406 OBP). Hit .263/.425/.316 in the Cape last summer. Off to a .375/.545/.500 start this season but it's been against subpar teams. 29th-round pick of the Phillies in 2013.
Zack Burdi, RHP--another reason to pay attention to a powerful Louisville squad. Flamethrower who can crank it up to 98. The closer for the Cardinals and also worked out of the bullpen for Team USA last summer. Never drafted.
Gio Brusa, OF--considered a likely 1st rounder at the beginning of 2015, underperformed last year before ending his season early due to injury. All that plus signability issues then dropped him to the 23rd round. He chose to return to the U of Pacific for his senior season.
Jacob Heyward & Willie Abreu, OFs--the Miami Hurricane pair were both drafted out of HS in 2013, Hayward by Atlanta in the 38th round and Abreu by the Reds in the 14th round. Yes, Jacob is Jason's bro.
Daniel Pinero, SS--discussed him last year. The U of Virginia player was drafted by the Astros out of HS in 2013 (and by the Tigers last year as a draft-eligible sophomore).
Mitchell Traver, RHP--another re-draft possibility a la Pinero. On the shelf to start this season with a strained lat. The Horned Frog was an Astros pick in 2012 out of HS and drafted again by the Cardinals last year.
Connor Jones, RHP--Pinero's teammate at Virginia was drafted in 2013 in the 21st round.
Jon Duplantier, RHP--considered a possible 1st rounder going into last year, his entire 2015 season was wiped out by a shoulder issue. He is back pitching for the Owls this year so we'll see how healthy he truly is. Never drafted.
Andrew Lantrip, RHP--like Duplantier, the Coogs' Friday night starter has never been drafted previously.
Corey Ray and Buddy Reed, OFs--Louisville and U of Florida, respectively. Both are probably gone by the time the Astros draft at #17 but footnoted here just in case. Combined with Banks were the outfield trio for Team USA. Both late round picks in 2013.
Nick Senzel, 3B--similar to the two players above, mostly footnoting as the #1 rated prospect in the Cape last summer may very well be gone by the time Houston gets to draft. The Vols player was never drafted previously.

Teams to circle on your TV calendar with the most/best draft prospects:

• Vandy--Reynolds, Sheffield, RHP Hayden Stone, LHPs Ben Bowden & John Kilichowski, 3B Will Toffey
• Florida--Reed, LHP A.J. Puk (#1 overall candidate), RHP Logan Shore, RHP Dane Dunning, RHP Shaun Anderson, 1B Peter Alonso
• Louisville--Funkhouser, Ray, Burdi, 2B Nick Solak, 3B Blake Tiberi
• Miami--Heyward, Abreu, C Zack Collins, LHP Danny Garcia
• Oklahoma--RHP Alec Hansen (#1 overall candidate), RHP Jake Elliott, 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse
• Virginia--Pinero, Jones, C Matt Thaiss
• Tennessee--Senzel, RHP Kyle Serrano
• Texas A&M--Banks, RHP Ryan Hendrix
• Georgia--RHP Robert Tyler, OF Stephen Wrenn
• LSU--OF Jake Fraley, LHP Jared Poche', RHP Riley Smith

[Reuben]

Great stuff, Nate, thank you.

I'll be really curious to see what the Astros do with the #17 pick. That's a point in the draft where there's still plenty of future All-Stars, and maybe a couple future HOFers, available. Or you could pick a guy who never makes the majors, or hardly does anything - a Jio Mier type.

Here's the best #17 overall picks in MLB June Draft History, by bb-ref WAR:
Roy Halladay 1995
Cole Hamels 2002
Gary Matthews 1968
Charles Nagy 1988

AJ Pollock, Brad Lidge, Jeromy Burnitz, and Brady Aiken were also picked 17th.

Leaving out the guys drafted in the past 5 years (some may yet make the majors), 32 out of 46 #17 picks have played in MLB. The Astros were 3 for 3 with their #17s: Lidge, Don August (traded for Danny Darwin in 1986), and Ramon Castro.

And, just to give an idea of what teams have passed up at #17, notable #18 picks include Willie Wilson, Sonny Gray, RA Dickey, and current #1 MLB prospect Corey Seager.

[Navin R Johnson]

FYI, from someone that follows UofH...  Lantrip is really good, but we have a sophomore Seth Romero who is absolutely ridiculous.   Keep an eye on him.  Lefty, low 90 to mid 90s who is just nasty.  He would be a top 10 pick overall of he was eligible.

[Nate Colbert]

FWIW, from the 1st mock draft of the season from BA:

17. Astros: Josh Lowe, 3b, Pope High, Marietta, Ga.

Armed with a deep, rich farm system, the Astros can afford to take a chance on a risky high ceiling talent like Lowe. The Georgia prep star is an elite athlete with massive raw power, and he has shown upside on the mound, giving him fallback option if his bat doesn’t play at the highest levels.

[BudGirl]

FYI, from someone that follows UofH...  Lantrip is really good, but we have a sophomore Seth Romero who is absolutely ridiculous.   Keep an eye on him.  Lefty, low 90 to mid 90s who is just nasty.  He would be a top 10 pick overall of he was eligible.

Agree about both of those.  I am beginning to hate Tuesday games because neither of them start.  What do you think of Ullom?

[Nate Colbert]

Cavan Biggio thru 26 games: .330/.527/.516. 34 walks vs 14 strikeouts.

[Reuben]

Cavan Biggio thru 26 games: .330/.527/.516. 34 walks vs 14 strikeouts.

Cool. He's not likely to slip past the 2nd round, is he?

[Nate Colbert]

Cool. He's not likely to slip past the 2nd round, is he?

Might be a tad optimistic. I could see him falling to 3rd or 4th round.

[Reuben]

Might be a tad optimistic. I could see him falling to 3rd or 4th round.

Huh. In that case maybe the Astros will try to take him. I could see them perhaps being willing to bend a little for sentimentality by that point in the draft.

[Duman]

Deeper name to watch in the draft: Placido Torres

Pitches for Tusculum College who shares Pioneer Park with the Greeneville Astros.  Leads all NCAA levels of baseball in K's (133 in 89 IP).  Fastball (mid 90's), Change, Slider (weakest pitch).

[Nate Colbert]

Deeper name to watch in the draft: Placido Torres

Pitches for Tusculum College who shares Pioneer Park with the Greeneville Astros.  Leads all NCAA levels of baseball in K's (133 in 89 IP).  Fastball (mid 90's), Change, Slider (weakest pitch).

Never drafted after either of his JUCO seasons or after his junior season at Tusculum?

[Duman]

Never drafted after either of his JUCO seasons or after his junior season at Tusculum?

Nope.  Coaches were shocked he didn't get drafted last year.  I expect he will be a late round pick for someone this year.

[Navin R Johnson]

FYI, from someone that follows UofH...  Lantrip is really good, but we have a sophomore Seth Romero who is absolutely ridiculous.   Keep an eye on him.  Lefty, low 90 to mid 90s who is just nasty.  He would be a top 10 pick overall of he was eligible.

For those of you who follow this closer, curious what you are hearing on Lantrip.  I'd think he would be a for sure top 5 rounds pick.   While UH is really struggling this year, Lantrip has been fantastic.  74 IP, 57 Hits, FOUR walks, 68 Ks, 1.82 ERA.

[Nate Colbert]

For those of you who follow this closer, curious what you are hearing on Lantrip.  I'd think he would be a for sure top 5 rounds pick.   While UH is really struggling this year, Lantrip has been fantastic.  74 IP, 57 Hits, FOUR walks, 68 Ks, 1.82 ERA.

Perhaps as high as 3rd round but certainly top 5 rounds, as you say.

[Navin R Johnson]

Thanks, he doesnt have the size you often see in 1st/2nd round kids nor the velocity.  But he isnt "small"  I'd guess 6'1"-6'2"  Usually sits in the low 90s with his fastball.  Obviously control is ++++

[Nate Colbert]

FWIW, from the 1st mock draft of the season from BA:

17. Astros: Josh Lowe, 3b, Pope High, Marietta, Ga.

Armed with a deep, rich farm system, the Astros can afford to take a chance on a risky high ceiling talent like Lowe. The Georgia prep star is an elite athlete with massive raw power, and he has shown upside on the mound, giving him fallback option if his bat doesn’t play at the highest levels.

A new mock from BA today, a new name:

RHP Forrest Whitley--HSer out of SA's Alamo Heights. Florida State signee. Listed at 6'7" and previously at 250 lbs but apparently has lost 20-30 lbs since. Low 90's FB, touching 96-97. Secondary pitches seem to be works in progress.

Connor Jones (see my 2nd post at the top of the thread) also noted as a possible Astros pick though BA has him going at #16 to the Angels.

[Nate Colbert]

Mock draft 3.0 from Baseball America:

17. Astros: RHP Zack Burdi

Like Connor Jones (BA again names him as someone the Astros apparently are interested in), I mentioned Burdi's name 3 months ago as a college guy to follow. Another name thrown out here by BA as someone Houston supposedly likes is Pennsylvania HSer Nolan Jones. Jones (the prepster) is an infielder and lefty hitter with pop.

[astrosfan76]

MLB.com went a different direction:

17. Astros: Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa H.S., Clifton Park, N.Y.
The Astros could be looking at a number of high school arms in this stretch. Anderson has been a bit tough to scout with the Northeast weather and an illness that sidelined him, but he might have top 10 ability.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/177741112/kyle-lewis-at-no-1-in-latest-mlb-mock-draft?topicid=151437456

[Reuben]

Mock draft 3.0 from Baseball America:

17. Astros: RHP Zack Burdi

Like Connor Jones (BA again names him as someone the Astros apparently are interested in), I mentioned Burdi's name 3 months ago as a college guy to follow. Another name thrown out here by BA as someone Houston supposedly likes is Pennsylvania HSer Nolan Jones. Jones (the prepster) is an infielder and lefty hitter with pop.

They also seem to be implying that the Astros would at some point try to convert Burdi to a starter.

[astrosfan76]

Jim Callis takes a crack:

17. Astros: Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State

A possible top-10 pick until he slumped in April, Hudson has rebounded in May and should spark a run on college pitchers in the latter half of the first round. Seven of our next 17 projected picks are college arms, and right-handers Corbin Burnes (St. Mary's), Logan Shore (Florida) and Justin Dunn (Boston College) and lefty Anthony Kay (Connecticut) also could be factors for clubs seeking mound help sooner rather than later.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/179142756/aj-puk-at-no-1-in-latest-mlb-mock-draft?topicid=151437456

[Mike S.]

With Chris Correa's sentencing being postponed yet again, reckon it's safe to assume the commissioner isn't going to forfeit any of the Cardinals' draft picks and award them to the Astros?

[Nate Colbert]

With Chris Correa's sentencing being postponed yet again, reckon it's safe to assume the commissioner isn't going to forfeit any of the Cardinals' draft picks and award them to the Astros?

Assuming their struggles in the early part of the season continue, the Cardinals could be picking in the mid-teens in 2017 versus at #23 this year so the delay could actually work to the benefit of the Astros.

Not that I'm holding my breath that the commish is even looking into the whole notion of stripping and reallocating draft picks as the potential penalty here.

[Mike S.]

Thanks, Nate.  Sadly, I think you're correct regarding the commissioner and what he'll do.  The more time goes by, the more likely it is I think Manfred levies a fine and nothing further.

[Nate Colbert]

A new week, a new name in Mock Draft 4.0 from BA:

17. T. J. Zeuch, RHP

GM Jeff Luhnow dropped in on the ACC tournament Wednesday as the Astros continued to show interest in Burdi, who would likely be popped here if he is available. They’re also in on other college arms such as Midwest starters Eric Lauer (Kent State) and Cody Sedlock (Illinois).

Previous poo flingings guesses of either BA or MLB.com: Burdi going at #12 to the Red Sox, Dakota Hudson at #15 to the Twins.

Regarding Zeuch, the Pitt Panther is a 6'7" righty who K'd 74 and walked 19 in 69.2 IP over 10 starts. Missed time early in the season with a groin issue. 92-94 on the FB, secondary pitches are...secondary.

[Jacksonian]

A new week, a new name in Mock Draft 4.0 from BA:

17. T. J. Zeuch, RHP

Previous poo flingings guesses of either BA or MLB.com: Burdi going at #12 to the Red Sox, Dakota Hudson at #15 to the Twins.

Regarding Zeuch, the Pitt Panther is a 6'7" righty who K'd 74 and walked 19 in 69.2 IP over 10 starts. Missed time early in the season with a groin issue. 92-94 on the FB, secondary pitches are...secondary.

MLB.com today has them taking Sedlock.

[Nate Colbert]

MLB.com today has them taking Sedlock.

BA article (including a bit of video) on the Illini righty.

[Reuben]

With all the high-ceiling HS pitchers in this draft, I find it hard to believe the Astros wouldn't take one at #17, when the college guys projected to be available there seem so blah. I think the writers are underestimating how much the Astros like young pitchers. Plus, it seems to me they are thin in arms at the lower levels right now.

[Mike S.]

For anyone interested, Crawfish Boxes is profiling a number of players in the upcoming draft:

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2016-mlb-draft

[juliogotay]

With all the high-ceiling HS pitchers in this draft, I find it hard to believe the Astros wouldn't take one at #17, when the college guys projected to be available there seem so blah. I think the writers are underestimating how much the Astros like young pitchers. Plus, it seems to me they are thin in arms at the lower levels right now.

I think they have quite a few good,  young, arms that are from the Caribbean. I'd love to see a portsider in that slot if all else is equal.
BTW, I see Aiken is throwing now in competition.

[astrosfan76]

Callis' latest take on the draft, which begins next Thursday:

17. Astros: Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois
Houston is tied mostly to college arms such as Hudson, Sedlock, Burdi, Pittsburgh right-hander T.J. Zeuch and Kent State lefty Eric Lauer. The Astros are exploring all of the demographics, however, with college position players (Wake Forest third baseman Will Craig), high school bats (Kirilloff, Jones) and high school pitchers (homestate righty Forrest Whitley) all possibilities.

[Jacksonian]

Callis' latest take on the draft, which begins next Thursday:

What that quote really means is that, once again, no one has a clue what the Astros will do.

[astrosfan76]

What that quote really means is that, once again, no one has a clue what the Astros will do.

To a degree.  Many had them taking Aiken in '14 and Callis for one, had them taking Bregman and Tucker last year (he also saw them taking Cameron if he fell past the Rangers).  But, this year will be much harder to throw darts at, with not only their tendencies in play, but the whims of 16 other teams to consider. 

[moriartp]

Law posted one today as well, guessing Zeuch for the Astros with Sedlock still on the board. Here's his comment:

"I've heard the Astros linked to prep arms (Whitley in particular) and college arms, so I guess you could say they're looking for a pitcher."

[Mike S.]

Personally, I would be very surprised if Whitley is still on the board when the Astros pick. 

That said, completely agree with the underlying point that I doubt anyone can say with certainty what the team will do in this year's draft.

[Nate Colbert]

From Kaplan's draft article in the Chron:

"It would be great if we came out of the first three rounds with a catcher," Luhnow said. "We can't control what other teams do, so the guys we like might be gone. But certainly (it's) something that we'll be keeping a close eye on."

[Reuben]

I heard Callis talking about various top draft prospects last week. He didn't seem to have any confidence that the top two catchers, Collins and Thaiss, would be able to stay behind the plate as pros. So I'm not holding out hope that one of them falls to the Astros.

[Mike S.]

BA with their latest mock draft has the Astros taking Cody Sedlock:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-5-0/#r4jTelXL1MTgPWet.97

[Nate Colbert]

Other names of interest or previously associated with the Astros from the above mock Mike S just linked:

9. Zack Burdi, RHP (Tigers)
10. Zack Collins, C (White Sox)
15. Dakota Hudson, RHP (Twins)
21. T.J. Zeuch, RHP (Blue Jays)
23. Matt Thaiss, C/1B (Cardinals)
24. Josh Lowe, 3B (Padres)
26. Eric Lauer, LHP (White Sox)
30. Forrest Whitley, RHP (Rangers)
33. Nolan Jones, INF (Cardinals)

[Nate Colbert]

Deeper name to watch in the draft: Placido Torres

Pitches for Tusculum College who shares Pioneer Park with the Greeneville Astros.  Leads all NCAA levels of baseball in K's (133 in 89 IP).  Fastball (mid 90's), Change, Slider (weakest pitch).

BA has him at #499 on its Top 500 list for the draft.

[Lefty]

30. Forrest Whitley, RHP

This kid can deal, he is huge for an 18yr old.

[Mike S.]

An interesting read/evaluation/prognostication from the good folks writing Tri-City's blog, Cats' Corner:

http://catscorner.mlblogs.com/2016/06/07/astros-draft-report-2016/

[Reuben]

An interesting read/evaluation/prognostication from the good folks writing Tri-City's blog, Cats' Corner:

http://catscorner.mlblogs.com/2016/06/07/astros-draft-report-2016/

Looks like the content was actually written by some Crawfish Boxes guys. Some useful info sprinkled in there, but good god those people are horrendous writers. Horrendous editors too.

[Mike S.]

You'll get no disagreement from me on either point, Reuben.  The writing for damn near most of the blogs I've read is pretty substandard.  To quote the maitre d' of Chez Quis, "I weep for the future."

[BlownRanger]

As a Jethro Tull devotee, I would love for that Ian Anderson mock pick from a month ago to actually happen.

[Texifornia]

As a Jethro Tull devotee, I would love for that Ian Anderson mock pick from a month ago to actually happen.

Locomotive Breath would work as a theme song, with the train and all.

[astrosfan76]

FWIW,

Brian McTaggart ‏@brianmctaggart 17m17 minutes ago

Hearing the Astros are very high on Illinois RHP Cody Sedlock.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Bummer, the train stopped in Atlanta as Ian Anderson goes third in the draft.

[Reuben]

Maybe one or two fewer comments than the last four years....

[Reuben]

14 picks in, PED user Delvin Perez still on the board, so are Sedlock, Burdi, Hudson, Zeuch....

[Nate Colbert]

14 picks in, PED user Delvin Perez still on the board, so are Sedlock, Burdi, Hudson, Zeuch....

Also Boston College RHP Justin Dunn and UVA C/1B Matt Thaiss.

[moriartp]

Maybe one or two fewer comments than the last four years....

I started paying attention to the draft in '08, and this is by far the most boring one over that span. I imagine '07 was pretty rough, though.

[Nate Colbert]

And Forrest Whitley it is.

[moriartp]

6'7"? Neat!

[Reuben]

And Forrest Whitley it is.

My simplistic brain can't help but see all non-stud college pitchers as "safe" "low-ceiling" type picks, so from that standpoint, and considering everyone assumed the Astros would go college pitcher, I really like this pick.

[jbm]

Did they really say he grew six inches in a year?

Anyways, looks a bit uncoordinated, but that has to be expected with such a growth spurt.  Hopefully, his mind will learn to control the new body.

They say he's real competitive and you got to like how loose he looks for a guy that big.

[Nate Colbert]

Did they really say he grew six inches in a year?

I thought I heard them say "in high school".

[Nate Colbert]

HS righties taken by the Astros over the years in the first round: Folty, Tony McKnight, Scott Elarton, Jeff Juden, Ryan Bowen, J.R. Richard, Wayne Twitchell.

Interesting that every one of those guys pitched in the big leagues and (excluding Folty of course) 4 of 6 spent eight seasons or more in the bigs.

[jbm]

I thought I heard them say "in high school".

Based on what I subsequently read, this is correct.  Watching more video of him, seems like a real high upside pick.

[Nate Colbert]

Some college catchers still available (as of pick #56): Logan Ice (Oregon State), Jake Rogers (Tulane), Brett Cumberland (Cal), Sean Murphy (Wright State).


ETA:
Ice subsequently went at #72 to the Indians and Cumberland went at #76 to the Orioles.

[Nate Colbert]

2nd round (#61 overall): OF Ronnie Dawson Ohio State

Hit .331/.419/.611 this past season for the Buckeyes. Sounds relatively raw for a college kid. Defense needs work.

Listed at 6'2" 225 lbs. Lefty swinger. Not drafted out of HS.

John Sickels writeup and some video here.

BA had him ranked #53 overall coming into the draft while MLB.com had him at #121.

Hit just .243/.333/.383 in the Cape last summer.

Mike Elias doesn't seem particularly rosy about the defensive expectations:

"He's a plus runner, he's a good defender in left field and he's a guy that can play a little first base if needed as well. We're mostly excited about the bat. This is one of our favorite college bats in the class."

[OregonStrosFan]

I started paying attention to the draft in '08, and this is by far the most boring one over that span. I imagine '07 was pretty rough, though.

I started paying attention to the draft in '08, and this is by far the most boring one over that span. I imagine '07 was pretty rough, though.

Just curious to see who the next trade bait will be for a middle reliever or a one and done backup catcher (although watching Conger-bot in the dugout probably was worth a 5th or 6th rounder...). Ugh!

[moriartp]

2nd round (#61 overall): OF Ronnie Dawson Ohio State

Hit .331/.419/.611 this past season for the Buckeyes. Sounds relatively raw for a college kid. Defense needs work.

Listed at 6'2" 225 lbs. Lefty swinger. Not drafted out of HS.

John Sickels writeup and some video here.

BA had him ranked #53 overall coming into the draft while MLB.com had him at #121.

Hit just .243/.333/.383 in the Cape last summer.

Mike Elias doesn't seem particularly rosy about the defensive expectations:

"He's a plus runner, he's a good defender in left field and he's a guy that can play a little first base if needed as well. We're mostly excited about the bat. This is one of our favorite college bats in the class."

From that info, he sounds a little like Derek Fisher.

[jbm]

Mike Elias doesn't seem particularly rosy about the defensive expectations:

"He's a plus runner, he's a good defender in left field and he's a guy that can play a little first base if needed as well. We're mostly excited about the bat. This is one of our favorite college bats in the class."

Yeah, mentioning first base on draft day is something of a red flag but at least he is a second round pick.  There was something similar said about one of the mid first round picks and I was thinking what a bad sign it was.

Also found the average and strikeout part of this quote interesting:

"He's a left-hander with a really good blend of power and hitting for average and not a big strikeout guy. That's something we like to see."

[pots]

And Forrest Whitley it is.

I like this pick.  Seems like an ace or bust pick.   Given the lack of ace material in the minors, this kid will immediately be the highest rated pitching prospect.    Probably slot in either second or third depending if Reed has fallen from the second spot.

[astrosfan76]

HS righties taken by the Astros over the years in the first round: Folty, Tony McKnight, Scott Elarton, Jeff Juden, Ryan Bowen, J.R. Richard, Wayne Twitchell.

Interesting that every one of those guys pitched in the big leagues and (excluding Folty of course) 4 of 6 spent eight seasons or more in the bigs.

Can add Lyles and McCullers if you're willing to include supplemental picks.

[Jacksonian]

I like this pick.  Seems like an ace or bust pick.   Given the lack of ace material in the minors, this kid will immediately be the highest rated pitching prospect.    Probably slot in either second or third depending if Reed has fallen from the second spot.

The Astros still have 2 ace level pitchers in Martes and Paulino.  If his last 2 outings reflect true fixes to his problems Martes will sit at the top of the pitching ratings.  Paulino has been stellar as well.  I'd expect him to sit at #2.  From there I think Whitley will be #3, and Musgrove, if he's still a rookie next year, will be at #4.

[juliogotay]

The Astros still have 2 ace level pitchers in Martes and Paulino.  If his last 2 outings reflect true fixes to his problems Martes will sit at the top of the pitching ratings.  Paulino has been stellar as well.  I'd expect him to sit at #2.  From there I think Whitley will be #3, and Musgrove, if he's still a rookie next year, will be at #4.

And Abreu appears to have similar talent to Martes but is struggling now. Very young.

[Jacksonian]

And Abreu appears to have similar talent to Martes but is struggling now. Very young.

He's much more raw than Whitley.  If his command comes around and the velocity doesn't drop then yes he'll sit at the top as well.

[Jacksonian]

Yeah, mentioning first base on draft day is something of a red flag but at least he is a second round pick.  There was something similar said about one of the mid first round picks and I was thinking what a bad sign it was.

Also found the average and strikeout part of this quote interesting:

I wonder if he was picked as a money saver.

[Jacksonian]

I think round 3 is where the Astros go for catcher if one of Johnson, Murphy or Rogers is there.

[Mike S.]

I wonder if he was picked as a money saver.

My thought as well.  Dawson struck me as a very underwhelming pick (fairly athletic with raw power, but has a middling arm and struggled with wooden bats in the Cape Cod League).  I'd like to that when both Muller and Reynolds were chosen just a few picks before, the Astros decided to save some money for over slot picks later on. 

[JimR]

My simplistic brain can't help but see all non-stud college pitchers as "safe" "low-ceiling" type picks, so from that standpoint, and considering everyone assumed the Astros would go college pitcher, I really like this pick.

he knocked McCallum out of the playoffs two years in a row. serious gas.

[pots]

I think round 3 is where the Astros go for catcher if one of Johnson, Murphy or Rogers is there.

Murphy off the board

[astrosfan76]

My thought as well.  Dawson struck me as a very underwhelming pick (fairly athletic with raw power, but has a middling arm and struggled with wooden bats in the Cape Cod League).  I'd like to that when both Muller and Reynolds were chosen just a few picks before, the Astros decided to save some money for over slot picks later on.

If it was to save money, it's also possible that Whitley's asking price was higher than they could offer with slot.

[Jacksonian]

Matt Krook wouldn't surprise me at 3 either.

[Jacksonian]

And it's Rogers.

[pots]

I think round 3 is where the Astros go for catcher if one of Johnson, Murphy or Rogers is there.

Dind ding ding.  Rogers taken in the 3rd

[Jacksonian]

Dind ding ding.  Rogers taken in the 3rd

The only thing that surprises me about the Astros taking Rogers is the questionable bat.  I would have thought they'd look for a mediocre defender who can hit a bit, sort of the opposite of Rogers.

[Jacksonian]

Alright. If he's there at 4 I'm calling Krook.

[astrosfan76]

Some observations:

Frankie Piliere ‏@FPiliereD1 3m3 minutes ago

#Astros take Jake Rogers, maybe the most polished defensive catcher in the class. Plus arm, plus agility. Flashes 55 power, bat developing

JJ Cooper ‏@jjcoop36 4m4 minutes ago

Got to point watching Tulane games that I was amazed when anyone tried to run on new Astros' C Jake Rogers

JJ Cooper ‏@jjcoop36 5m5 minutes ago

Astros get a catcher Jake Rogers. Tulane...great arm, great defense, iffy bat.

[pots]

Alright. If he's there at 4 I'm calling Krook.

I'll guess Johnson if he is there. 

[pots]

Alright. If he's there at 4 I'm calling Krook.

Snagged 2 picks early

[pots]

Matt Krook wouldn't surprise me at 3 either.

They did go with a lefty.  Wild lefty.  Adcock, Brett

[pots]

They did go with a lefty.  Wild lefty.  Adcock, Brett

7 walks per 9 innings

Adcock can touch 94 mph on the radar gun, and he gets good rotation on his curveball, although he doesn't always locate well and can be inconsistent. The left-hander started 14 games for Michigan this year and had a 3.22 ERA, plus 100 strikeouts in 78 1/3 innings.

[astrosfan76]

#Astros take Brett Adcock, who’s a lot like Matt Krook but without as good of a body—really good stuff from left side, command needs to come

[astrosfan76]

Mark Berman ‏@MarkBermanFox26 4m4 minutes ago Texas, USA

#Astros 3rd-round pick catcher Jake Rogers from Tulane patterns his game after "kind of a lot of people combined.I love the Molina brothers"

I'm going to pretend that he's just talking about Bengie and Jose.

[MusicMan]

Alright. If he's there at 4 I'm calling Krook.

Adcock's comment: "I am not a Krook."

[Jacksonian]

7 walks per 9 innings

So he really is Wild Brett Adcock.

[pots]

The only thing that surprises me about the Astros taking Rogers is the questionable bat.  I would have thought they'd look for a mediocre defender who can hit a bit, sort of the opposite of Rogers.

Consistent improvement

202/264/245
227/330/256
261/384/403

Threw out 27 of 43 this year

[Jacksonian]

I'm glad they went with the less command/big arm lefty instead of the soft-tossing control lefty there.

[Jacksonian]

Consistent improvement

202/264/245
227/330/256
261/384/403

Threw out 27 of 43 this year

Looking at the video of his swing is painful.  There's a lot of movement, but if his hands are as quick with the bat as they are with the ball (NTTAWWT) then maybe with a rework of his swing he can be a better hitter.

[Jacksonian]

All they're missing now is an infielder, and they'll have covered every draft area.  RHP, OF, C, LHP,...

[Jacksonian]

7 walks per 9 innings

78.1IP, 52H, 62BB, 100K, .190BAA.

[Jacksonian]

And I was just thinking they might pick up a college third baseman.

[astrosfan76]

Cavan Biggio selected by the Blue Jays.  No consolation pick for us this year.

[Reuben]

Consistent improvement

202/264/245
227/330/256
261/384/403

Threw out 27 of 43 this year

MLB.com scouting report on Rogers said many think he might be THE best defensive player in this draft, period.

[BudGirl]

Cavan Biggio selected by the Blue Jays.  No consolation pick for us this year.

Kacy Clemens was drafted already??

[Nate Colbert]

Cavan Biggio selected by the Blue Jays. 

5th round (#162 overall).

[Nate Colbert]

5th round (#157 overall): Seminole State 3B Abraham Toro-Hernandez

Switch-hitter. The 19-year old wasn't ranked in BA Top 500 prospects. One of many Oklahoma juco players drafted by the Astros in the last several years.

Put up .439/.545/.849 numbers this past year (on a team, however, that collectively hit .380/.469/.684).

A Canadian of Venezuelan extraction and speaks English, French and Spanish.

Brian McTaggart ‏@brianmctaggart  47 minutes ago
Abraham Toro-Hernandez played third base this year, but can throw 92 mph off the mound and could have future as catcher.

[Nate Colbert]

6th round (#187 overall): Stephen Wrenn

U of Georgia CF. From the various scouting profiles doesn't appear to be any problems sticking at that position in the pros.

Ranked #212 by BA entering the draft, #132 by MLB.com.

From the MLB writeup:

"He turned down the Braves as a 28th-rounder in 2013 to attend Georgia, and he impressed last summer in the Cape Cod League, where he was one of the fastest players and ranked fifth with five homers. His Draft stock has suffered because he hasn't hit with as much authority since a ball tipped off his glove and broke three bones in his face right before the season started, though he should go in the first three to five rounds."

.324/.400/.482 as a soph with the Bulldogs followed by a .273/.322/.424 line last summer in the CCL. Numbers fell this past year following the injury to .297/.364/.435 with 19 BBs vs 47 Ks in 209 ABs.

[Reuben]

5th round (#162 overall).

Biggio was ranked #350 by BA, FWIW.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

6th round: Stephen Wrenn, CF from UGA.  Speedy with some pop. Reportedly fell because of an injury (got hit by a pitch in the face right before the college season started).


ETA: Damn, late to the show.

[jbm]

6th round: Stephen Wrenn, CF from UGA.  Speedy with some pop. Reportedly fell because of an injury (got hit by a pitch in the face right before the college season started).


ETA: Damn, late to the show.

I thought this was a different guy and Luhnow had found his new market inefficiency.

[Nate Colbert]

7th round (#217 overall): RHP Tyler Buffett

Okla. State junior. 66 Ks vs 29 BBs in 67.1 IP in mostly relief work for the Cowboys this season.

Unranked by either BA or MLB.com going into draft.

HS teammate of Alex Bregman at Albuquerque Academy.

[Jacksonian]

7th round (#217 overall): RHP Tyler Buffett

Okla. State junior. 66 Ks vs 29 BBs in 67.1 IP in mostly relief work for the Cowboys this season.

Unranked by either BA or MLB.com going into draft.

Time for the safe picks to help fill up the short season clubs.

[Nate Colbert]

Time for the safe picks to help fill up the short season clubs.

SS roster filler in the 7th friggin' round?

[Jacksonian]

SS roster filler in the 7th friggin' round?

Top talent is way gone.  It's the very rare player drafted even this late that makes it to the show.

[Nate Colbert]

Top talent is way gone.  It's the very rare player drafted even this late that makes it to the show.

Sure, why bother looking for another Dallas Keuchel or Preston Tucker when you're too busy worrying about who's gonna be working out of the V-Cats bullpen this season.

[Jacksonian]

Sure, why bother looking for another Dallas Keuchel or Preston Tucker when you're too busy worrying about who's gonna be working out of the V-Cats bullpen this season.

It's not like either of them were expected to be much of anything.  A soft-tossing lefty without a single remarkable pitch and fair metal bat hitter with mediocre defensive skills.

[Jacksonian]

It's not like either of them were expected to be much of anything.  A soft-tossing lefty without a single remarkable pitch and fair metal bat hitter with mediocre defensive skills.

And then there's others from 2008 on: Jon Gaston, Roberto Pena, Javaris Reynolds, James Ramsey, Derick Velasquez, Michael Freeman.

[Jacksonian]

Round 8: Nick Hernandez from U of H, RHP.

[Nate Colbert]

Round 8: Nick Hernandez from U of H, RHP.

#247 overall.

Closer for the Coogs. 67 K/11 BB in 51.1 IP this past year.

[Jacksonian]

5th round (#157 overall): Seminole State 3B Abraham Toro-Hernandez

Switch-hitter. The 19-year old wasn't ranked in BA Top 500 prospects. One of many Oklahoma juco players drafted by the Astros in the last several years.

Put up .439/.545/.849 numbers this past year (on a team, however, that collectively hit .380/.469/.684).

A Canadian of Venezuelan extraction and speaks English, French and Spanish.

Brian McTaggart ‏@brianmctaggart  47 minutes ago
Abraham Toro-Hernandez played third base this year, but can throw 92 mph off the mound and could have future as catcher.

McTag tweet says his college coach (former big league scout) sees him as a big league catcher.

[Nate Colbert]

It's not like either of them were expected to be much of anything.  A soft-tossing lefty without a single remarkable pitch and fair metal bat hitter with mediocre defensive skills.

The fact that they had some warts is why they didn't go until the 7th round. That doesn't mean you don't look past the defects to see if with proper coaching guys drafted here can be become decent players at the big league level.

Teams are not looking to fill out SS rosters until much later in the draft.

[Jacksonian]

The fact that they had some warts is why they didn't go until the 7th round. That doesn't mean you don't look past the defects to see if with proper coaching guys drafted here can be become decent players at the big league level.

Teams are not looking to fill out SS rosters until much later in the draft.

They are taking the best player available but they're also looking at organizational need.

[Nate Colbert]

They are taking the best player available but they're also looking at organizational need.

That I won't argue.

[Nate Colbert]

9th round (#277 overall): LHP Ryan Hartman

Presumed underslot signing at this point as he is a college senior (Tennessee Wesleyan).

Silly numbers of 129 Ks and just 12 BBs in 98 innings this past season for the NAIA school.

Led all of NAIA with an 0.64 ERA and was named Perfect Game/Rawlings Pitcher of the Year.

[pots]

It's not like either of them were expected to be much of anything.  A soft-tossing lefty without a single remarkable pitch and fair metal bat hitter with mediocre defensive skills.

Actual Keuchel was the product of great scouting, not just some soft tosser who they got lucky on.  Don't have time to look it up again but from what I remember the scout that saw him was begging for Keuchel for many rounds before Heck pulled the string.  Here's a quick article on it.

[Reuben]

McTag tweet says his college coach (former big league scout) sees him as a big league catcher.

Kaplan said he has caught before.

[Nate Colbert]

10th round (#307 overall): RHP Dustin Hunt.

Senior out of Northeastern U. Another potential underslot sign.

Ranked at #345 on the BA 500 Draft Prospect list.

Starting pitcher for the Huskies (93 Ks and 29 BBs in 86 IP this past season), sounds like a reliever is his more realistic longer-term ceiling in the pros.

[Nate Colbert]

Recap after first 10 rounds:

College senior: 2
College junior:  6
JUCO: 1
HS: 1

RHP:  4
LHP: 2
OF: 2
INF: 1
C: 1

[Duman]

BA has him at #499 on its Top 500 list for the draft.

Torres ended up going in the 8th round to the Mets.  Highest draft pick ever for Tusculum College.

[Duman]

9th round (#277 overall): LHP Ryan Hartman

Presumed underslot signing at this point as he is a college senior (Tennessee Wesleyan).

Silly numbers of 129 Ks and just 12 BBs in 98 innings this past season for the NAIA school.

Led all of NAIA with an 0.64 ERA and was named Perfect Game/Rawlings Pitcher of the Year.

TN Wesleyan is a very good NAIA baseball program.  Has made the national tournament for 7 straight years and won it all in 2012. 

[Nate Colbert]

Final breakdown of one of the most ridiculously college-heavy drafts you'll ever see:

College senior: 14**
College junior:  15
JUCO: 6***
HS: 5*

RHP: 13
LHP: 5
OF: 6
INF: 10
1B: 2
C: 4

*Four of which were taken in the 26th round or later and thus unlikely to sign. And one of the four was a courtesy pick: Fresno manager Tony DeFrancesco's son in the 37th round.

**Including 40th round pick Lucas Williams from U of Central Missouri which of course is Jim Crane's alma mater.

***Not surprisingly, four from the usual Kansas/Oklahoma jucos (including three from Seminole State).

[Nate Colbert]

Astros have already announced signing of three picks: Nick Hernandez (8th), Ryan Hartman (9th) and Dustin Hunt (10th).

Link

[jbm]

Thanks fòr all the updates and info.

I realize that the Astros' draft must be an outlier in its college-heaviness, but has the ratio of high school to college for the overall draft changed.  I wonder if the slotting has skewed the whole draft pool to the college side.

[Jacksonian]

Thanks fòr all the updates and info.

I realize that the Astros' draft must be an outlier in its college-heaviness, but has the ratio of high school to college for the overall draft changed.  I wonder if the slotting has skewed the whole draft pool to the college side.

Relatively small bonus pool means fewer high schoolers because of their typical money demands and leverage.  JUCO's give youth without being as expensive.

[Nate Colbert]

Brian McTaggart ‏@brianmctaggart  2 minutes ago
Astros view 11th-round pick RHP Chad Donato from WVU a Top 5 round talent, but he might need TJ surgery.

Outstanding numbers for the Moutaineers this spring with 111 Ks and just 20 BBs in 96 innings before going down with the UCL strain.

The kid from Cypress Woods HS was ranked at #351 coming into the draft by BA.

[BizidyDizidy]

Good roster filler

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

[Jacksonian]

Good roster filler

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

Disabled list filler.

[astrosfan76]

Final breakdown of one of the most ridiculously college-heavy drafts you'll ever see:

College senior: 14**
College junior:  15
JUCO: 6***
HS: 5*

Since last year, when they drafted 33 players from the 4-year ranks and 3 more from JuCo's?  They did draft 8 HS players, but also had two more picks than they did this year.  In 2014, they only drafted 4 players out of HS, 9 out of JuCo's, and the rest out of the 4-year ranks.  Economics has shaped it (Elias has said as much) and agents, like Boras, are more likely to advise HS players to go the college route if they don't get money that teams may not be willing to pay them.  Regardless, college-heavy is a trend with this FO (and you could probably find similarities in previous regimes, though the economics were not quite the same).

[Nate Colbert]

Since last year, when they drafted 33 players from the 4-year ranks and 3 more from JuCo's?  They did draft 8 HS players, but also had two more picks than they did this year.

Your numbers aren't quite adding up. As I posted in last year's draft thread, the breakdown was:

8 HS
3 JUCO
16 4-year Juniors
15 4-year seniors

Of the 8 HS, 6 of those were taken in the first 25 rounds meaning that they expected to sign most if not all of those 6 kids. And in fact they ended up signing 5 of them.

So 2016 is in fact a much more college-heavy draft than 2015.

In 2014, they only drafted 4 players out of HS, 9 out of JuCo's, and the rest out of the 4-year ranks.

All 4 of the prepsters were taken in the first 25 rounds and (depending on how you want to parse the Aiken clusterfuck) at least 2 and as many as 3 could have signed. Again, 2016 more college-heavy than 2014 but certainly it's much closer.

Economics has shaped it (Elias has said as much)...

Yes, that point had already been made earlier in this thread. The smaller bonus pool impacted this draft.

Regardless, college-heavy is a trend with this FO...

What fascinates me is the Kansas/Oklahoma JUCO emphasis. Obviously they're betting big-time on the judgement of Jim Stevenson and when you're the guy who pounded the table on Dallas Keuchel why not? Of the 21 JUCOs the Astros have drafted since 2013, he's scouted 12 of 'em. That's a huge influence for an area scout who's responsible for four states and none are named Texas, Florida or California. It'll be interesting to see how those picks turn out.

(That's only the JUCOs. I haven't added up the number of guys from 4-year schools he would have scouted and signed.)

[Reuben]

I wonder if it has a small bit to do with how they feel about their upcoming DSL players. Maybe they feel confident enough in the upside of some of those guys, and their readiness for Greeneville this year and/or QC in 2017, that they felt like they could spend their draft money on more college guys they believe in as opposed to a few more HS kids.

QC and Lancaster seem a bit barren right now, meaning Corpus and Fresno may get rather barren over the next couple years, without an influx of advanced college talent.

[Nate Colbert]

Three more picks have agreed to deals--Dawson (2nd), Rogers (3rd) and Toro (5th).

The folks over at Astros County doing their usual fine job keeping up with everything via their signing status/bonus pool tracker.

[jbm]

I didn't realize it, but the 6-9 TCU is a draftee. Hell of a performance tonight. Great command and one fiery dude.

The guy from OSU also threw well today, but I didn't get to see much.

[Nate Colbert]

I didn't realize it, but the 6-9 TCU is a draftee. Hell of a performance tonight. Great command and one fiery dude.

The guy from OSU also threw well today, but I didn't get to see much.

Glad to see both kids did well. So as far as draftees in the College World Series which begins next weekend:

• 7th-rounder RHP Tyler Buffett (the OSU guy)
• 17-rounder RHP Brian Howard (6'9" TCU kid)
• 28th-rounder 2B Johnny Ruiz (Miami)
• 29th-rounder 3B Elliott Barzilli (another Horned Frog)

[Nate Colbert]

I wonder if the slotting has skewed the whole draft pool to the college side.

See this article from Grantland and scroll down to the 3rd table. That table includes data from 2013 and 2014, the first two years of the hard slotting era. At least for 2013 and 2014, doesn't appear to be any effect on the the % of HS players vs college players drafted (if there has been an effect, it's actually a slight tick upward in favor of HS players). (Caveat here of course in that you'd like to see more detailed data including the years 2015 and 2016 to confirm this.)

Of course there has been at least one effect of the hard slotting rules: some college seniors have been impacted in that they've moved up in the draft to the 1st 10 rounds where they can be underslot signs.

[Nate Colbert]

Adcock (4th round) agrees to terms, heads as expected to TRC.

Link

[Duman]

18th rounder Colin McKee reported to be headed to Greeneville

[Nate Colbert]

19th-rounder Taylor Jones (Zags 1B) has signed--he's on that TRC roster that I linked to in the V-Cats thread. Ditto for 15th-rounder Alex Degoti (Barry Univ SS).

[Nate Colbert]

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB
22nd-rder Ray Henderson, @astros agree on $100k. Grayson (Texas) CC C, hit .452/.541/.782 w/12 HR in 51 G.

Heading to DumanLand:

Ray Henderson ‏@raypanda27  Jun 14
@Robert__Witt no sir, I will be with the Greeneville Astros.

[Nate Colbert]

NDFAs (per WTHB)

RHP Devin Raftery, Nova Southeastern--from a school that should be very familiar to Astros fans (J.D. Martinez was drafted out of there, Mike Fiers played there, at least 3 other players have been drafted or signed by the Astros out of Nova). Raftery was the closer for the DII Sharks this past season as a senior. 90 Ks and just 16 BBs in 55 IP with a 1.14 ERA. Listed at a rather squat 5'10" 205 lbs.

LHP Sean Stutzman, DBU--in his three years with the Patriots went from the bullpen (soph) to starting (junior) and then back to the pen (senior). 125 Ks in 139 IP over his college career and lotsa walks (66) to go along with. Listed at 5'9" 170 lbs.

RHP Reggie Johnson, Hampden-Sydney College--from a DIII school out of Virginia (one of only three four-year, all-men's liberal arts colleges in the United States the completely reliable Wikipedia tells me). Played both the outfield and pitched for the Tigers. On the mound he whiffed 133 in 173 IP while walking 48 in his career (66 Ks/19 BBs in 77 IP as a senior). Listed at 6'4" 205 lbs.

[Nate Colbert]

5' 11" 1B Troy Sieber (24th round out of DII St. Leo as a junior) will sign and head to the GCL.

Sieber had a breakout sophomore season for the Lions, when he was named a semifinalist for the Tino Martinez Award given to the national player of the year in Division II. This year he was a finalist for the honor, and it was well-earned. He was fourth in Division II with a .457 batting average and .873 slugging percentage, and led the nation with a .553 on-base percentage."

He’s been working behind the scenes at catching, and even joined Pennsville alum and Wilmington Blue Rocks coach Chris Widger in Delaware for a game in which he served as the team’s bullpen catcher to get additional work. “This is to show that I can play more than one position,” said Sieber. “They told me I’m getting drafted as a first baseman and just to work on catching on the side.

[Nate Colbert]

Updated list of NDFAs with Devon Carr being the latest signee:

RHP Devin Raftery, Nova Southeastern--from a school that should be very familiar to Astros fans (J.D. Martinez was drafted out of there, Mike Fiers played there, at least 3 other players have been drafted or signed by the Astros out of Nova). Raftery was the closer for the DII Sharks this past season as a senior. 90 Ks and just 16 BBs in 55 IP with a 1.14 ERA. Listed at a rather squat 5'10" 205 lbs.

LHP Sean Stutzman, DBU--in his three years with the Patriots went from the bullpen (soph) to starting (junior) and then back to the pen (senior). 125 Ks in 139 IP over his college career and lotsa walks (66) to go along with. Listed at 5'9" 170 lbs.

RHP Reggie Johnson, Hampden-Sydney College--from a DIII school out of Virginia (one of only three four-year, all-men's liberal arts colleges in the United States the completely reliable Wikipedia tells me). Played both the outfield and pitched for the Tigers. On the mound he whiffed 133 in 173 IP while walking 48 in his career (66 Ks/19 BBs in 77 IP as a senior). Listed at 6'4" 205 lbs.

LHP Devon Carr, Florida Atlantic--the senior southpaw worked exclusively out of the bullpen in his two seasons with the Owls after transferring in from juco. 48 Ks and 21 Ws in 62.2 IP over that period. Listed at 6'2" 190 lbs.

[Nate Colbert]

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB  9 minutes ago
6th-rder Stephen Wrenn signs w/@Astros for $257,900 (pick 187 value). Georgia OF w/VG speed, CF, some pop too. Could be steal.

Also tweeted that Toro (5th) signed for $94,300 under slot and Hernandez (8th) for $51,600 under slot. Also Adcock (4th) for $29,700 under slot and Hartman (9th) signed for just $10K which was $154,900 under slot.

By my count, the 8 of the top 10 round picks who have signed collectively did so for $352,100 below slot.

[jbm]

Is there a late rounder they might me targeting with the extra cash, or is Whitley thought to be a hard sign?

[Jacksonian]

Is there a late rounder they might me targeting with the extra cash, or is Whitley thought to be a hard sign?

I've heard nothing about Whitley being tough to sign.  All of the other high schoolers will be tough signs but I don't see these savings adding up to enough money to get a signing done.  Have we even gotten to $500,000 in savings?

[Reuben]

I've heard nothing about Whitley being tough to sign.  All of the other high schoolers will be tough signs but I don't see these savings adding up to enough money to get a signing done.  Have we even gotten to $500,000 in savings?

Maybe there's one or two guys who just need $300k or so, a la Devonte German? There's also the bit of wiggle room to go over spending cap but not have to forfeit any draft picks.

[cougar]

RHP Reggie Johnson, Hampden-Sydney College--from a DIII school out of Virginia (one of only three four-year, all-men's liberal arts colleges in the United States the completely reliable Wikipedia tells me). Played both the outfield and pitched for the Tigers. On the mound he whiffed 133 in 173 IP while walking 48 in his career (66 Ks/19 BBs in 77 IP as a senior). Listed at 6'4" 205 lbs.

I went there, it's legit.  Beautiful campus, middle of nowhere.

[Nate Colbert]

16th-rounder OF Spencer Johnson has signed and according to this will be heading to Greeneville.

Hit .293/.412/.707 as a senior for Missouri State this past season.

[Nate Colbert]

So as far as draftees in the College World Series which begins next weekend:

• 7th-rounder RHP Tyler Buffett (the OSU guy)
• 17-rounder RHP Brian Howard (6'9" TCU kid)
• 28th-rounder 2B Johnny Ruiz (Miami)
• 29th-rounder 3B Elliott Barzilli (another Horned Frog)

Hurricanes vs Arizona just starting, Ruiz batting 5th.

[Nate Colbert]

Mark Berman ‏@MarkBermanFox26  2 hours ago
@Aggie_Baseball 2B Ryne Birk (@RynoBirk) agreed to sign w/#Astros. 13th-round pick played at Seven Lakes HS in Katy.

HIt .296/.375/.467 over his 3-year Aggie career, .310/.378/.478 this past year as a junior.

[MikeyBoy]

Mark Berman ‏@MarkBermanFox26  2 hours ago
@Aggie_Baseball 2B Ryne Birk (@RynoBirk) agreed to sign w/#Astros. 13th-round pick played at Seven Lakes HS in Katy.

HIt .296/.375/.467 over his 3-year Aggie career, .310/.378/.478 this past year as a junior.

That is my son's high school. Glad he signed!

[Nate Colbert]

So as far as draftees in the College World Series which begins next weekend:

• 7th-rounder RHP Tyler Buffett (the OSU guy)
• 17-rounder RHP Brian Howard (6'9" TCU kid)
• 28th-rounder 2B Johnny Ruiz (Miami)
• 29th-rounder 3B Elliott Barzilli (another Horned Frog)

Miami eliminated today so Ruiz now free to sign (unless he decides to return for his senior season).

Tyler Buffett on the mound tonight for the Cowboys.

[Nate Colbert]

Donato (12th), Kevin Hill (25th) and RHP Ian Hardman (36th) have all signed per Astros press release.

Hardman is the 2nd of three Seminole State players drafted to (officially) sign. Listed at 6'4" 240 lbs, the juco soph whiffed 43 in 25.2 IP for the Trojans this past season with lotsa (as in 18) walks.

Hill was a 5th-year senior at South Alabama where he K'd 126 and walked 31 in 122.2 IP in 2016. Has his own Seminole State ties, spending two years there before moving on to the Jaguars. Listed at 6'0" 205 lbs.

Although more have agreed to terms, the official count is that 19 of the 40 draft picks have been signed.

[Nate Colbert]

Tyler Buffett on the mound tonight for the Cowboys.

Alex Bregman's HS teammate at Albuquerque Academy continues his outstanding postseason work. Blanking Arizona over 8 innings tonight and has allowed just 2 runs over his last 22 IP.

[juliogotay]

Alex Bregman's HS teammate at Albuquerque Academy continues his outstanding postseason work. Blanking Arizona over 8 innings tonight and has allowed just 2 runs over his last 22 IP.

Apparently a cousin of Warren's. Which should make him a cousin of Jimmy's too.

[Mike S.]

That guy was light's out against my  brother's alma mater (Arizona) last night. 

[Nate Colbert]

Cavan Biggio selected by the Blue Jays.

1st game as a pro last night in the NWL: reaches on a plunk.

[Nate Colbert]

So as far as draftees in the College World Series which begins next weekend:

• 7th-rounder RHP Tyler Buffett (the OSU guy)
• 17-rounder RHP Brian Howard (6'9" TCU kid)
• 28th-rounder 2B Johnny Ruiz (Miami)
• 29th-rounder 3B Elliott Barzilli (another Horned Frog)

Howard on the mound tonight against Coastal Carolina, Barzilli in his usual 5th spot in the lineup.

Game starts at 8.

[MusicMan]

Houston AstrosVerified account
‏@astros
The #Astros have signed their first-round draft pick, Forrest Whitley: http://atmlb.com/28NwDOD

[jbm]

Nice.  No bullshitting around this year.  Get him out there and train him up.

[MusicMan]

Signed for $3.148M. Slot was $2.504M.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pots]

Signed for $3.148M. Slot was $2.504M.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't have the numbers, but that sounds like every dollar available short of a draft pick penalty

[Nate Colbert]

Whitley will head to the GCL per tweets.

[Mike S.]

I don't have the numbers, but that sounds like every dollar available short of a draft pick penalty

Looks like they still have (just) a bit of room to maneuver:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2016/6/22/12004580/mlb-draft-2016-how-much-do-the-astros-need-to-save-to-avoid-penalties

[Nate Colbert]

In the press release announcing the signing of Whitley, the Astros indicated that LHP Nathan Thompson (27th), OF Chaz Pal (38th), INF Tyler Wolfe (39th) and RHP Lucas Williams (40th) had all officially signed. Brings the official count of who has signed to 26 out of 40.

Thompson, Pal, Wolfe and Williams were all college seniors. Thompson played at Oklahoma Baptist and would have been scouted and signed by Jim Stevenson. Listed as a skinny 6'1" 170 lbs. Apparently threw in low 80s as a junior but bumped that closer to 90 as a senior. Has a changeup that his coach calls a "tremendous" plus pitch. Led his DII Great American Conference in strikeouts this past season. 126 Ks vs 34 Ws in 96 IP.

Pal hit .336/.412/.552 this past season for DII South Carolina-Aiken, a drop off from .393/.466/.617 numbers as a junior. No word if any relation to George. Turned 23 last month.

Wolfe played two years of juco before heading to the Big XII and K State. Hit .285/.381/.371 in his 2 years with the Wildcats.

Williams is the 2nd pitcher drafted out of Central Missouri since Jim Crane acquired the Astros. Listed at 6'3" 195 lbs and is 21 years old. Pitched in middle relief this past season for the DII Mules.

[Jacksonian]

Looks like they still have (just) a bit of room to maneuver:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2016/6/22/12004580/mlb-draft-2016-how-much-do-the-astros-need-to-save-to-avoid-penalties

McTag tweet has them at $291K over right now with the 7th rounder to go.  If that holds they're paying a tax.

[Nate Colbert]

In the press release announcing the signing of Whitley, the Astros indicated that LHP Nathan Thompson (27th), OF Chaz Pal (38th), INF Tyler Wolfe (39th) and RHP Lucas Williams (40th) had all officially signed. Brings the official count of who has signed to 26 out of 40.

And that press release would be wrong. 23rd-rounder RHP Tyler Britton is shown on the G-Stros official roster released this afternoon as is 16th-rounder OF Spencer Johnson. So officially 28 out of 40.

Britton was a senior at High Point University (which I did not know until now is in fact a D1 program). Played two years with the Panthers after going juco. Worked out of the pen, whiffing 59 and walking 10 in 55 innings this past season. Listed at 6'0" 195 lbs.

Johnson was discussed (briefly) upthread.

[Nate Colbert]

So who are the 12 unsigned?

4 college guys who were/are in CWS: Buffett (7th), Howard (17th), Ruiz (28th), Barzilli (29th). Ruiz probably won't sign if the Miami Herald is to be believed:

The Hurricanes expect returns from five of the nine who composed Miami’s lineup in Omaha including leadoff hitter Carl Chester and infielders Christopher Barr, Johnny Ruiz and Edgar Michelangeli.

4 late-round HSers who almost certainly won't sign: Avery Tuck (26th), Darius Vines (32nd), Nick Slaughter (35th), Anthony DeFrancesco (37th). DeFrancesco of course was a courtesy pick and has already said he's going to juco.

4 "others":

• Carson LaRue (14th): juco soph and U of H commit.
• Louis-Philippe Pelletier (20th): both of his Seminole State teammates drafted by the Astros have signed and there is some reason to believe Pelletier has also agreed to terms. Waiting for further confirmation however.
• Toby Handley (33rd): currently playing for the Bourne Braves in the Cape Cod League so iffy as to whether he signs.
• Stijn van der Meer (34th): he's a college senior so no reason not to sign but have yet to see any confirmation.

[Nate Colbert]

4 "others":

• Carson LaRue (14th): juco soph and U of H commit.
• Louis-Philippe Pelletier (20th): both of his Seminole State teammates drafted by the Astros have signed and there is some reason to believe Pelletier has also agreed to terms. Waiting for further confirmation however.
• Toby Handley (33rd): currently playing for the Bourne Braves in the Cape Cod League so iffy as to whether he signs.
• Stijn van der Meer (34th): he's a college senior so no reason not to sign but have yet to see any confirmation.

The BA draft database here shows both Pelletier and van der Meer as having signed (though neither one has yet been assigned to a SS roster).

So 30 of the 40 picks have now signed.

[Nate Colbert]

So who are the 12 unsigned?

4 college guys who were/are in CWS: Buffett (7th), Howard (17th), Ruiz (28th), Barzilli (29th). Ruiz probably won't sign if the Miami Herald is to be believed.

With OSU and TCU now out of the CWS Buffett, Howard and Barzilli all free to sign if they choose.

[Lefty]

Howard returning to TCU for his senior year.

http://www.frogsowar.com/2016/6/28/12056384/brian-howard-announces-he-will-return-to-tcu

Frogs O' War is an awesome name for a fansite, btw.

[Nate Colbert]

14th-rounder Carson LaRue announced via his own twitter account that he had signed.

[jbm]

After those starts in the post season, I was wondering if Howard would stay another year.  Kind of sucks; I was looking forward to tracking his progress, but now he's in the same camp as that lefty from San Diego and Dietrich. 

[Nate Colbert]

According to the Fort Worth Star Telegram, Barzilli joins Howard in returning to TCU for his senior season.

Link

[Mike S.]

How firm of a commitment is Nick Slaughter?  If my math is correct, the Astros have just over $200k available without losing a pick.

(ETA: If there is one firm, immutable rule I've lived my life by it's never do math in public.)

[Navin R Johnson]

How firm of a commitment is Nick Slaughter?  If my math is correct, the Astros have just over $200k available without losing a pick.

(ETA: If there is one firm, immutable rule I've lived my life by it's never do math in public.)

I have heard Slaughter plans to stick with his commitment to UofH, I think it would take more than $200K to change that.

[Mike S.]

Thanks, Navin.  On a related note, I read that the Astros are still negotiating with Carson Larue.  Perhaps that's where their dedicating any available money?

[jbm]

Did Buffet sign yet?

[Nate Colbert]

Did Buffet sign yet?

Still undecided from everything I've seen to date.

[Nate Colbert]

On a related note, I read that the Astros are still negotiating with Carson Larue.

Where exactly did you read that?

As noted upthread, his own twitter and instagram accounts indicated he had signed and that was five days ago. However, the BA database has yet to note that he had signed. I assume it's still pending the physical but that's purely speculative on my part.

[Mike S.]

Astros County draft tracker had listed as still in negotiations citing a local newspaper article.  Didn't have much time to go further than that.

[Nate Colbert]

Astros County draft tracker had listed as still in negotiations citing a local newspaper article.  Didn't have much time to go further than that.

An article dated June 11.

[Nate Colbert]

Did Buffet sign yet?

Still undecided from everything I've seen to date.

With one week left until the signing deadline, still no news from what I've seen. After omitting him in his initial tweet, Jim Callis of MLB.com reported yesterday that Buffett is one of just 12 picks in the first 10 rounds who have yet to sign.

[Nate Colbert]

As noted upthread, [Carson Larue's] own twitter and instagram accounts indicated he had signed and that was five days ago. However, the BA database has yet to note that he had signed. I assume it's still pending the physical but that's purely speculative on my part.

The BA draft database now reflects the signing of LaRue.

So 31 of 40 draft picks signed as we head into the last week.

[Nate Colbert]

Toby Handley (33rd): currently playing for the Bourne Braves in the Cape Cod League so iffy as to whether he signs.

Now playing with the Mystic Schooners of the NECBL.

[MusicMan]

Jim Callis on Twitter:

Don't think Tyler Buffett will sign w/@Astros.

[Nate Colbert]

Tyler Buffett makes it official on his twitter account and says he'll return to OSU for his senior season.

[Reuben]

Tyler Buffett makes it official on his twitter account and says he'll return to OSU for his senior season.

Anyone have the story on what happened? Typically I'd think a 7th round college jr., they have a pretty good idea of whether he'd sign for what they want to offer.

[Lefty]

Anyone have the story on what happened? Typically I'd think a 7th round college jr., they have a pretty good idea of whether he'd sign for what they want to offer.

He loves college, doesn't need the money, wants to go back to Omaha.

[pots]

I don't have the numbers, but that sounds like every dollar available short of a draft pick penalty

According to AC, $14,715 from losing a draft pick this year

[juliogotay]

He loves college, doesn't need the money, wants to go back to Omaha.

to work for Uncle Warren?

[Nate Colbert]

According to AC, $14,715 from losing a draft pick this year

That number is wrong.

[jbm]

I don't know what the number is, but I find it impossible to believe that they would be incurring a draft pick penalty. 

Sucks about Buffet; he did have some talent. 

[Nate Colbert]

That number is wrong.

Because Buffett wasn't signed, you need to reduce the bonus pool allotment by the $193,300 pick value. That gives you an amount of $5,735,000 (5,928,300-193,300). Add the 5% threshold gets you to $6,021,750.

The bonus paid to 9th-rounder Ryan Hartman (and not reflected on the AC page) was $10,000. So the total paid to the first 10 picks was $6,026,700. If you stopped right there and accepted everything else at face value, then you'd have to believe the Astros FO stupidly went $4,950 over the threshold and would be in lost draft pick territory.

Doing just a slight bit of digging, it turns out the bonus paid to 10th-rounder Dustin Hunt was (at least according to BA) $130,000 and not the $135,000 on the AC page. Making that correction, the Astros spent $6,021,700 and thus were $50 under the threshold. That suggests the Astros wrung the absolute last dollar out of their bonus pool, paid some tax and avoided losing a draft pick. Sounds like a helluva more likely scenario.

End pedantic rant.

[Nate Colbert]

Toby Handley (33rd): currently playing for the Bourne Braves in the Cape Cod League so iffy as to whether he signs.

Now playing with the Mystic Schooners of the NECBL.

And confirms in this article he won't be signing.

[Nate Colbert]

JJ Cooper ‏@jjcoop36  4 minutes ago
We've never seen a year where everyone signed like this. Previous record for top 10 round unsigned player was 6. This year? 2.


(Buffett of course being one of the two.)

[Nate Colbert]

So 31 of 40 draft picks signed as we head into the last week.

And that is the final count. For comparison, 35 of 42 draft picks were signed last year.

[MusicMan]

Per Callis:

The @Astros spent $6,021,700 toward pool, which was $5,735,000. That's 4.99% above pool. Had $50 to spare

[BizidyDizidy]

Nate nails it at usual.

[JimR]

Nate nails it at usual.

to the penny

[jbm]

Yeah, that is pretty impressive.

[Mr. Happy]

Nate nails it at usual.

Nate fucking rocks.

[Reuben]

Nate fucking rocks.

Nate Gold. Even better than Nate Silver.