Who Am I?
Ken Giles
RHP
Age: 26
Height: 6′ 2″
Weight: 205
Throws right, Bats right
How did I get here?
Originally drafted by Philadelphia in the 7th round in 2011. Traded to Houston, along with Jonathan Arauz, for Mark Appel, Harlod Arauz, Thomas Eshelman, Brett Oberholtzer, and Vince Velasquez in December 2015.
Contract status: becomes arbitration eligible in 2018. Eligible for free agency in 2021.
Why am I here?
Don’t overthink this one. The ninth inning belongs to Giles unless something drastic happens.
What are my strengths?
DAT SLIDER. With all due respect to Billy Wagner and Brad Lidge, Giles possesses potentially the best out pitch of any Astro reliever. Giles threw the slider 529 times last year, recording 181 swing-and-misses vs. only 12 hits. Hitters had a .093 average and .186 SLG against the slider. It became a very simple process: if Giles got ahead in the count, the at-bat was over. Hitters went .157/.164/.276 once behind in the count against Giles.
What are my weaknesses?
Everything other than the above. When the batter got ahead in the count, they went .362/.581/.723 against Giles. Essentially, if you could get ball one, you turned into Barry Bonds against him.
Oh, but you didn’t always have to get to ball one: 23 hitters made contact on the first pitch against Giles. They went 13-22, plus one sacrifice. That’s a .591 average and a .773 SLG on first-pitch swinging. MAYBE the young flamethrower was a little predictable?
How do we diagnose this further?
When Giles debuted in 2014, hitters posted a .222 BAA and .333 SLG off his fastball.
In 2015, that went to a .250 BAA and a .321 SLG.
Upon joining the Astros for 2016: .378 BAA and .622 SLG.
The velocity was up a tick from 2016. So either we’re looking at some historical-levels of bad luck, a problem with location, or your classic case of tipping pitches.
What is my future with the Astros?
It’s put up or shut up time. If Giles delivers the way I expect, he’s your closer for at least 3 more seasons. If not… that 2018 arbitration starts to look reeeeeal interesting.
What is my projected 2017 performance?
Before we get there, let’s talk about 2016.
What if I told you…
… that Giles posted a 3.12 ERA over 57.2 innings, allowing a .210/.278/.348 slash line? I mean, that’s not perfection, but that’s a pretty darn good season from a reliever, right?
Because that’s what Giles did in 2016 – except for April. As for that April, well, the four worst scenarios for a newly acquired pitcher would have to be:
- Killed by batted ball (Herb Score)
- Broken arm requiring amputation (Dave Dravecky)
- Career-ending case of the yips (Rick Ankiel) (shut up, yes, I know he came back as a hitter. I saw it.)
- Ken Giles’ April 2016.
| W | L | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | ERA | WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2 | 5 | 65.2 | 60 | 8 | 25 | 102 | 4.11 | 1.29 |
| PECOTA | 3 | 2 | 57.7 | 48 | 6 | 20 | 76 | 2.70 | 1.18 |
| ZIPS | 70 | 57 | 7 | 24 | 96 | 3.09 | 1.16 | ||
| MMWAG | 3 | 1 | 67 | 55 | 5 | 20 | 99 | 2.45 | 1.12 |
Who else would I remind you of?
Brad Lidge. I think they even look slightly similar. I think it’s the lousy facial hair.
I expect peak-Brad Lidge things from Giles in 2017.