SERIES PREVIEW
Percentage-Point Lead @ Get the Hell Outta Our Way
June 3-5, 2016
I like math. I know the thought of complex math makes people want to rinse their eyes out with a household cleaner of some sort, but before you reach for the bleach (as an aside, “Reach for the Bleach” would be a good name for a fundraising 5K benefiting cosmetic procedures for adult film stars) just say with me here.
Before graduating high school I decided I would major in math in college. This decision was driven by three primary forces:
- I was not accepted for my first-choice major
- I did well in calculus and was reasonably interested in math
- I was hopelessly smitten by a girl much smarter than me and I was desperate to impress her
In the span of a few months I immersed myself in math. I watched the movie Pi, unaware that I was about to see a guy lobotomize himself so that he couldn’t . To give you an idea of how bad it got, I even read a book called “Zero: The Biography of a Dangerous Idea”. (There is no truth to the rumor that it is a novelization of Seinfeld. Anyone? Anyone?) Yeah, I had it bad.
The history of zero was somewhat interesting, but one of the book’s appendices outlined the kind of mayhem that can result from dividing by zero. (Zero division breaks the rules of arithmetic but is necessary in some situations in advanced math.) Using a simple algebraic equation, the author proved that 1=0, and from there proved that Winston Churchill was a carrot (it’s a long story). Once you establish 1=0 then you can multiply both sides of the equation by any number and prove that that number equals zero as well.
So if I want to believe that the Astros didn’t actually lose 3-0 to Zack Greinke but instead won 4-3, 7-3, or 169234-3, just let me have my zero division, dammit.
I’m not sure this preview really went where I intended it to go, but whatever.
Also, the girl broke up with me two weeks into our freshman years, and after three semesters I realized I wasn’t nearly as good at math as I thought I was. Ha ha, sports fans.
Friday, June 3 – 7:10pm CDT
Jesse Hahn (2-2, 4.15) vs. Doug Fister (4-3, 3.86)
Things didn’t exactly go well for the Astros when they faced Hahn in April. Hahn held them scoreless on only three hits through 6.2 innings. He hasn’t come close to the same level of performance since, having allowed 3-4 earned runs in all four of his May starts. He also allowed six home runs over that span, so if the recent Houston team shows up instead of April’s Houston team, they could have better success against him.
Fister picked up the only Astros W in Oakland last time these two teams met, turning in arguably his best start of the season: only one run allowed in 6.2 innings. He has been a quality start machine since then and most recently took a no-decision in the 13th inning game against the Angels, giving up three runs (one earned) in six innings.
Saturday, June 4 – 3:10pm CDT
Rich Hill (8-3, 2.25) vs. Collin McHugh (5-4, 4.82)
The Astros scratched out just enough hits and runs – two of each – against Hill to hang an L on him when he opposed Fister in Oakland. He’s been on a tear since then: in his subsequent five starts he is 5-0 with a 1.97 ERA and no dingers given up. Not bad for a 36-year-old who is seeing his most significant starting work since 2009.
McHugh’s complete game in Arizona is further evidence that, although he still has flashes of inconsistency, he is not the liability we thought he was going to be in mid-April. He did not face the A’s in their first series this season but was 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA, .221 opposing average, and 32 K’s in 25 innings in four starts against them in 2015.
Sunday, June 5 – 1:10pm CDT
Kendall Graveman (2-6, 5.09) vs. Lance McCullers (2-1, 4.79)
Of the three games in this series, Sunday’s game has the most potential to see a lot of bullpen action as both starters have had trouble working deep into games.
Graveman had three good starts to open the season, then went through a five-game stretch in which he was 0-5 with a 7.92 ERA and a whopping 2.00 WHIP. He has improved since then, giving up just two runs in each of his last three starts, but he is still letting lots of guys on base and does not get through the 6th inning very often (just four times this year). In two 2015 appearances against Houston he was 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA. One of those was a shutout in early April before the Astros found their footing; the other was in late April after the Astros started playing well, and if you’re halfway decent at math you can probably get an idea of how that one went without seeing the actual numbers.
Some of the same things can be said of McCullers, who has a tendency to get cute with the strike zone and is already averaging four walks a game. However, he doesn’t allow as many hits as Graveman and has way better strikeout numbers. Lance struggled to make it five innings against the Snakes in Arizona but struck out seven and picked up the win. He only faced the A’s once in 2015, when he held them to one run in 4.2 innings in his MLB debut.