For those of you who were expecting this on the actual off day this week, I can only assume that you’re numb due to the disappointment that the Astros have been so far, and this is just one more step towards the edge of the cliff.
Your stagnant stars have opened the season 1 and 6, have been shut out twice and have, when they’ve actually shown up, appeared to be generally clueless on the mound, and especially, painfully, at the plate. Curiously, courtesy of the office of Katy Feeney, the Astros have been given a rare mid-series break to hold closed door meetings, drink Yuengling and hold an Uno tournament. They could also stand to take a little mini-assessment of what has happened and where they’re headed.
The starting pitching disappointments have been limited to (kind of suprisingly, but not really) Roy Oswalt and (not at all surprising provided you’re familiar with the term “career-year”) Brian Moehler. Probably should note that Moehler has a strained MCL, or a sprained DSL…something. Either way, despite positive trends (37.80 to 27.00 in just 5 days), he has not been good, almost like a guy who figured to barely make a roster, much less a rotation, about a year ago. Combined with Oswalt’s continued struggles with anything pitching related prior to June, the starting pitching has been about what you’d have guessed. Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz? Both still have use of their money makers, so to speak, which might rank as a pleasant surprise when you compare it to the mess the rest of this staff is.
The bullpen is hardly worth mentioning. Doug Brocail has Houston’s only win so far this season, and sadly, he is on the DL for the 765th time in his career. Jose Valverde, Chris Sampon and Tim Byrdak have been good. The rest of the bullpen has been a decided “meh”. In the interest of being fair, however, the Astros have had a lead after the 6th inning exactly one time so far this season, so the lack of urgency they’ve shown is understandable. The lack of execution, however, is not, as the bullpen blew that one lead and is walking around with a pedestrian 5.19 ERA. Pedestrian because there’s a lot of foot traffic when they pitch…get it?!? I kill me.
That brings us to the actual problem so far in 2009…the offense. By design or just the way life works out, the 2009 version of this team, not unlike the 2008 version was going to win with hitting. Big, bold, timely, veteran hitting. While it’s early, and ships can be righted, and dogs can have sun shine on their asses and (insert your favorite cliche here), compared to their National League bretheren, the Astros are dead last in on-base percentage, third from last in slugging percentage and fourth from the bottom in batting average. If you take out Jeff Keppinger, the Astros are dead last in all three categories. Anyone with internet access can look up and down the line-up and see the players who are hitting (Keppinger) and the players who aren’t hitting (everyone else), and frankly it’s not terribly interesting to point out that Berkman is hitting .167 or that Carlos Lee is hitting .192. What is interesting the editiorial staff here at “Off Day” are the reasons why, for the second year in a row, this team has started off the season frigid at the plate. It’s fully possible that you have 15 players going through hitting slumps at the same time, but I think the more likely answer is…Cecil Cooper.
A lot of time the effect a manager has on a baseball team, especially a veteran team, is overblown. To a very large extent, the players are responsible for production on the field. The ways a manager can affect a game can (and usually should) be subtle. It’s not about batting your pitcher 9th, or redecorating a bat rack when something goes wrong. A competent manager’s job is to put their players in the best position to succeed. Having said all that, nothing in the last 18 months has lead any objective observer to believe that Cecil Cooper is competent. Example A is his blatant inability to put together a batting order.
The easiest way to “fix” the offense would be to set an order (or 2) and cease the juggling after 4-5 games. For starters get Kaz Matsui out of the lead-off spot. Not only is he both visually uncomfortable in the role, his skill set isn’t exactly geared towards leading off. Know how you can tell? When the native Japanese speaker bothers to learn the phrase, “I’m not comfortable leading off” in english. Matsui does however have the skill set to bat second, and has done so with reasonable success in his career. Including last season. For the Astros. Instead, the Astros have had Pudge Rodriguez, Jeff Keppinger, Miguel Tejada and Hunter Pence hitting pre-Berkman. Keppinger is a good option. The others, not so much. The other problem with Matsui batting lead-off is his attendance. From anal-fissures to inverted eye-lids, if there’s a way for Kaz Matsui to get injured, he’s going to find it. If you can’t count on a player to play more than 100 games, why would you put him in such a vital place in the order? Me neither.
With the personnel available Berkman, Lee, Tejada is the right mix for 3-4-5. You could make an argument that Lee should be batting 3rd, but why pick that particular nit? I know there’s no stat to support this (and by no stat, I mean none that I care to look for) but Lee has a better ball/strike approach than Berkman does. On the other hand, Berkman typically had better results than Lee. It’s like arguing about who’s hotter when your choices are “sweaty, dirty jungle” Kate and “high heels and skirt, losing Aaron in the grocery store” Kate. Both have their pros and cons.
After Matusi, the biggest problem with the current batting order is one Hunter Pence. It’s hard to tell if Pence’s complete lack of baseball smarts at the plate is the bigger problem or if it’s Cooper’s infatuation with him, but it’s one of those. Put as plainly as I can manage, Hunter Pence should, barring either catastrophic injury to the rest of the line-up or an occurance of Shakabuku, not bat higher than 6th. His approach is completely wrong for the top of the line-up. His complete inability to recognize and/or make more than accidental contact with a breaking ball should rule him out of the middle of the order. Batting seventh should maximize the value and minimize the damage to this year’s Astros. Accentuate the positive, I always say!
Against right-hander pitchers, Bourn, Matsui, Berkman, Lee, Tejada, Blum, Pence, Rodriguez is a nice solid line-up. Mix it up against southpaws by running out Bourn, Keppinger, Berkman, Lee, Tejada, Pence, Rodriguez, Matsui. And then let them play. Try it for a couple of weeks. See how it feels.
The question is rapidly elevating to whether or not Cooper is incompetent or just stupid. I don’t think he’s stupid, but I think he’s dangerously close to some serious scrutiny. Fixing the batting order would be a great place for the Astros’ manager to answer some of those questions.
