We are less than a month away from the 2008 MLB Draft. So it is time to look back at the 2005 draft and get a peek at how successful that draft is looking. The players from the 2005 draft have 2 ½ seasons under their belts and while it is still early in their development, especially for the high school and college freshman picks, we wanted to get an idea of how they are coming along. Consider this a mid term progress report on how the players are developing. Remember progress report grades can still be brought up or down depending on how you do the rest of the grading term, which for drafts tends to be 5 years.
There are two primary areas factored in the grading process: What progress is the player showing and what value should be expected out of that slot in the draft. Players who have been released get different grades based on their draft slots. A player who was drafted in the top 15 who is released after a season or two is considered a greater failure than one who was picked in the bottom 20 and was released after a season or two.
Here is the grading scale:
A- Player is maximizing potential, Maximum value for pick
B – Player is showing signs of potential, Good value for pick
C – Player is showing mixed signs of potential, About what you would expect for pick.
D – Player is not meeting potential, Not getting bang for buck.
F – Player is no longer in Baseball, What were you thinking picking this guy, Player has significantly underperformed for expectations.
Brian T Bogusevic (Round 1) LHP
2005 Tri Cities,
2006 Lexington (missed 7 weeks due to elbow inflammation),
2007 Salem/CC
2008 Corpus Christi
In his first three seasons with the org, his combined record was 12-15 with an 4.89 ERA in 241.1 innings. He has struck out 191 and walked 91 during that time. The biggest issue is he has just been hittable. His hits per 9 have gone up each season/move. One the bright side his HR/9 have gone down. 2007 was really his first full year of playing since being drafted. He has had good starts surrounded by rough ones so far 2008 in Corpus Christi. To add insult to injury, his Tulane teammate, Micah Owings was drafted in the 3rd round of this draft. He is 4-1 with a 4.33 ERA for the Diamondbacks this year. Owings was 8-8 last year. Looks like we drafted the wrong Greenwave at this point in time.
Grade – D
Eli Iorg (Round 1 Supplemental) OF
2005 Greeneville
2006 Lexington
2007 Salem – elbow injury
2008 Corpus Christi
Iorg started his journey in Greeneville because he was recovering from an injury and the docs who had treated him were close by in Knoxville. He performed well in Greeneville but was too old for the competition. He performed okay in Lexington and excited some people with his defense. He started 2007 very well in Salem, before he blew out his elbow diving into a base on a pick off play. In 2008, Iorg has show some of the promise that was expected when he was drafted. However, due to a Mormon mission prior to college at Tennessee, Iorg is already 25. He needs to ripen in a hurry.
Grade – B-
Ralph M Henriquez (Round 2) C
2005/ 2006 Greeneville
2007 Lexington
Ralphie made some progress between his 05 & 06 seasons in Greeneville. However, he didn’t fair well in 07 at Lexington, hitting only .185. He was being passed by Sapp and potentially other catchers lower in the org. He was traded in the off season for a left handed relief pitcher, Josh Appell who is pitching at Salem this year. Henriquez is going to play in the short season Gulf Coast League this year.
Grade – F
Thomas S Manzella (Round 3) SS
2005 Tri Cities
2006 Lexington
2007 Salem/CC/AFL
2008 Corpus Christi
Tommy has progressed nicely through the organization and is recognized for his good defense. He has been named the best defensive infielder in the system for 3 straight years by Baseball America. It has been said that his defense is already at Major League level but his offense is holding him back. He had a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League hitting .302 in 16 games. Manzella is hitting over .310 this year so far in AA. He should be in Round Rock before long. He looks like he may be the best of the draft.
Grade – B+
Joshua W Lindblom (Round 3) RHP
Never signed. Attended Univ. of Tennessee for one year before transferring to Purdue to be closer to home.
No Grade
Joshua A Flores (Round 4) OF
2005 Greeneville
2006 Lexington
2007 Salem/CC/AFL
2008 Injured
Josh made a splash with his start at Greeneville with his speed and his bat. He had an adequate year at Lexington in 06. He started 07 at Salem and was incredible, but his promotion to Corpus brought him back down to earth. He was still rewarded with a trip to Arizona for fall ball and he produced nicely. He is speedy, has improved on taking walks, steals bases well and has a little pop. Still striking out too much to be a true lead off guy. However he is just 22 and has made it to AA before older prospects like: Parraz, or Iorg. He injured his knee in a freak accident this off season and will miss all of the 08 campaign. Look for him in the Arizona Fall League if rehab goes well.
Grade – B
Wilson “Billy” Hart (Round 5) 3B
2005 Tri Cities
2006 Salem
2007 Salem (batting champ)
2008 Corpus Christi
Billy made the jump from Tri Cities to Salem in 06. In 2007 he returned to Salem and improved his hitting claiming the Carolina Batting title by percentage points over Mitch Einertson. Also during 07 he started moving from 3b to OF defensively. He hit 30 doubles, and 6 triples in 07 but only 4 HR. His failure to move to the infield means that several of the recent drafts expected to make that move have failed (Einertson in 04 drafted as 2b, Dixon in 07 drafted as 2b both have moved to OF). Hart is making a fair showing in the Texas League so far this year, hitting .286 as of 5/12 but showing only gap power.
Grade – C
Brandon Barnes (Round 6) OF
2005 & 2006 Greeneville
2007 Tri Cities (MVP)
2008 Lexington
Barnes is still learning the game of baseball and is starting to show some power. After two rather uneventful seasons in Greeneville (.200 in 05 and .220 in 06) he found his power stroke in 07 at Tri Cites. He pounded 10 home runs and jumping his slugging percentage from .329 to .459. Although he still struck out at a 1 ever 3 AB clip, he almost doubled his walk total from the previous year. In 2008, Barnes is struggling mightily in Lexington. He has struck out 34 times in 74 AB as of May 6th and is only batting .108.
Grade – D+
Timothy Johnson (Round 7) SS
2005,2006 & 2007 Greeneville
Timmy spent 3 awful years in Greeneville, showing very little improvement. He was released after the 07 season
Grade – F
Koby Clemens (Round 8 ) 3B
2005 Greeneville/ Tri Cities
2006 & 2007 Lexington
Winter 2006 Hawaii
2008 Salem
Koby has shown steady progress at the plate since signing out of high school. He hit 15 homers and 21 doubles in 07 at Lexington. He led the team in walks (56) but still struck out in 27% of his at bats. In the field, it became clear with 29 errors in 99 games that his future was not as a 3rd baseman. This off season, the Astros began the transition to Koby the Catcher. So far in 2008, Clemens has had more success at the plate hitting .333 with some good pop but is still striking out at the same rate. He may have been a reach to be drafted here but he has shown some ability.
Grade – C+
Jordan D Meaker (Round 9) RHP –
Didn’t sign, went to Dallas Baptist
Allen Langdon (Round 10) OF
2005 & 2006 Greeneville
Missed most of his 05 due to an injury. He hit just .162 in 11 games. In 06, he hit .232 in 46 games and was released out of EST in 2007.
Grade – F
Cory S Lapinski (Round 11) LHP
2005 & 2006 in Tri Cities
Spent 2 seasons in Tri Cities before being released. Signed with Frontier League team in April 07 and then retired from independent ball in May 07.
Grade – F
Thomas Fairchild (Round 12 ) RHP
Tri Cities 2005
Lexington / Salem 2006
Corpus Christi 2007 – injury
2008 Extend Spring for Rehab expected to join Corpus Christi
Tip burst onto the radar with a break out start to 06 in Lexington. With a 10-3 record and a 1.74 ERA, he was promoted to Salem. At Salem, he showed some struggles with his control but still finished with a 4-4 record and a 3.78 ERA in 64 1/3 innings. In 2007, he was assigned to Corpus Christi. After two rough starts, he was diagnosed with a bad elbow and went under the knife. It will be interesting to see how he bounces back in 2008, reports are that he is close to making his 2008 debut.
Grade – B
Eric A King (Round 13) SS
Tri Cities 2005
Lexington 2006
Salem 2007
Eric’s stats went down as he moved up. He was released in December of 07.
Grade – D-
Mark Ori (Round 14) 1B
Tri Cities 2005
Lexington 2006
Salem 2007 & 2008
Mark is the picture of consistency. In his first 3 seasons, his batting average as stayed between .272 and 280. His slugging has stayed between .356 and .405. And though his numbers took a bit of a dip at Salem last year, the biggest dip was his strike out numbers from 23% at Lexington in 06 to 15% in Salem in 07. In 2008, he is leading the Avalanche in many offensive categories. However, he is 24 and is too old for the league.
Grade – B-
Eric D Sheridan (Round 15) RHP
Played in Greeneville & Tri Cities in 05 but was released out of spring training in 06. He was picked up by the A’s organization and pitched in the Carolina League & Midwest League in 07
Grade – D-
Aaron J Bulkley (Round 16) CF
Played in Tri Cities in 05 & 06 and was released. Played 2007 in the Frontier League for Kalamazoo.
Grade – D
Andrew P Kroeker (Round 17) C
Played in a combined 23 games for Tri Cities in 05 & 06 and was released.
Grade – D
Brian C Needham (Round 18) RHP
Didn’t sign. Pitching for Lamar U went 5-5 with 2 saves and a 5.13 ERA in 07 as a Sophomore.
No Grade
Drew Himes (Round 19) RHP
Pitched in 05 for the ValleyCats and then bounced around the Frontier League for 06 and part of 07.
Grade – D
Ryan D Mitchell (Round 20) RHP
Greeneville 05 & 06 but released from extended spring 2007. His release had less to do with his performance on the field and more to do with his behavior off. In 2007, he played indy ball for the Worchester Tornados of the CAN-AM League pitched in 20 games (6 starts) ended up 3-4 with a 2.35 ERA and 32 K in 57 1/3 innings. He was traded to Washington of the Frontier League in January.
Grade – D-
Scott M Sarver (Round 21) LHP
Played in Tri Cities in 05 and briefly in Lexington in 06 before being released. Last seen pitching in the Northern League for the Calgary Vipers where he was 2-1 in 7 games (5 starts) with a 3.86 ERA. He has also spent some time in the Golden League.
Grade – D
Thomas R Steele (Round 22) CF
Playing baseball at University of Arizona. Hit .323 in 07
No Grade
Chris Blazek (Round 23) LHP
2005 Tri Cities/Lexington
2006 Lexington
2007 Salem
2008 Corpus Christi
Had a brief stint in Tri Cities before jumping to Lexington in 05. He spent all of 06 in Lex. In 07, he struggled in Salem before turning it on late allowing only 3 runs in his last 15 1/3 innings pitched while striking out 18. As of May 12th, he has 18 K’s in 15 innings out of the Corpus Christi bullpen.
Grade -B
Sean R Walker (Round 24) RHP
2005 Tri Cities
2006 Lexington
2007 Salem
2008 Corpus Christi
Spent 05 in Tri Cities and 06 in Lexington. Was in Salem of 07 and started off very hot carrying a 1.08 ERA out of April but a high ankle sprain limited his innings. He missed all of June and only had one appearance in July. He turned 25 this off season. In 2008 he has been starting for the Hooks but has not been very effective sporting a 7.97 ERA through 7 games/6 starts.
Grade B-
Jacob R Hurry (Round 25) LHP
Greeneville 2005
Tri Cities/Lexington 2006
Released in Spring 2007
Grade D
Michael Thompson (Round 26) 3B
Played for Tri Cities in 05 and performed adequately hitting .262. Joined Lexington during the season in 06 and even got a taste of Salem hitting a combined .215 over 72 games with 12 doubles and 4 home runs. He was released by the Astros and picked up by the Royals organization. He spent 2007 in the Midwest League where he gained an All Star nod despite his .217 average due to his 22 doubles and 19 HR in 108 games. The Astros didn’t get their money’s worth out of him.
Grade – F
Matthew C Luca (Round 27) RHP
After bypassing a 22nd selection by the Reds in 02, he also bypassed the 27th selection by the Astros in 05. He wasn’t drafted after his senior season and was last seen being released by the River City Rascals of the Frontier League.
No Grade – Didn’t sign
Eric Baker (Round 28) 2B
Reported signed but never played.
No Grade – Never Played
James A Gant (Round 29) RHP
Pitched for Tri Cities and Lexington in 05 and then for Lexington in 06 before being released.
Grade – C-
Matthew D Hirsh (Round 30) RHP
Matt, AKA Jason’s Lil Bro, pitched for Greeneville in 05 and was released out of spring training on 06. He has pitched in the Golden League and most recently for the Sussex Skyhawks of the Can Am League where he carried a 1-4 record with a 7.09 ERA in 47 innings.
Grade D
Brad Stone (Round 31) RHP
He was drafted in the 19th round by the Marlins in 06. He is spent 07 playing against Lexington for the Greensboro Grasshoppers where he carried an ERA of 2.31 in 38 relief appearances. He started 2008 in Greensboro again but recently moved up to the Fla. State League.
No Grade – Didn’t sign
Cole A Graham (Round 32) 1B
Played in Greeneville in 05 but was released in 06. Landed with the start up Anderson Joes of the South Coast League but was released in June of 07.
Grade D
Reid Kelly (Round 33) RHP
Kelly was a DFE who signed and started 06 in Greeneville. He jumped to Lexington in 07 as a 20 year old. He went 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA in 28 appearances with 6 saves with more Ks than innings pitched. He is again pitching out of the Lexington pen this season. He has a 3.13 ERA with 2 saves through 11 appearances. He is having a tough time keeping the ball in the park surrendering 4 HR so far. Still for a 33 round pick, a steal.
Grade B
Nathan R Warrick (Round 34) LF
Warrick played in Greeneville in 05. He started 06 in Tri Cities but moved to Lexington after just 3 games. In Lexington he hit .245 over 36 games. He was released in 07 but signed on with the Pensacola Pelicans of the Independent American Association where he hit .261 prior to his release in July.
Grade C-
Andrew T Darnell (Round 35) RF
Darnell was a DFE who signed in 06 and joined Greeneville. He returned to Greeneville in 07 where he spent most of the year. He got a late season taste of Lexington. He hit a combined .226 with 9 doubles and 3 homers in 164 AB. He had a big swing and struggled hitting breaking pitches. Was released during spring training 2008.
Grade D
Matthew P Cunningham (Round 36) OF
Played for Tri Cities in 05 and jumped to Salem in 06 where his average dipped from .295 to .182. The Astros subsequently released him.
Grade D
Matthew K Bishop (Round 37) RHP
Didn’t sign, returned to Endicott College and was not drafted after his senior year.
No grade
Michael J Colla (Round 38) RHP
Attended Arizona and last year was 3-3 with a 5.20 ERA in 7 starts as a sophomore
No Grade
Zachary D Williams (Round 39) RHP
Second time drafted as DFA – Wasn’t signed
No Grade
Collin E Fanning (Round 40) CF
Was a DFE that wasn’t signed, went to BYU for 2006 and was drafted in 2007 in the 36th round by St. Louis. Hit .159 in the NYPL last season.
No Grade
Casey L Mccleskey (Round 41) CF
A DFE who wasn’t signed
No Grade
Brandon G Stricklen (Round 42) RHP
Signed as started at Greeneville before moving to Tri Cities in 05. He pitched in Lexington in 06 before being released.
Grade – C
Jacob I Hower (Round 43) RHP
A DFE that wasn’t signed. He pitched for Fresno State last season out of the pen. He was 2-0 with a 3.05 ERA in 19 appearances.
Nicholas M Cobler (Round 44) LHP
Another kid that may have missed his chance to play pro ball. He was drafted in 04 by the Astros in the 34th round, then in 05 in the 44th round. Both of those seasons were as a DFE and he wasn’t or didn’t sign. In 2007 he was drafted by the Twins in the 49th round and didn’t sign.
No Grade
Craig I Herrforth (Round 45) RHP
DFE who wasn’t signed.
No Grade
Thomas W Musick (Round 46) LHP
Chose to attend U of Houston and has performed well there. He was a Freshman All American. As a red shirt Freshman, he was 6-5 with a 3.00 ERA in 15 starts with a complete game.
No Grade
Summary
Break down of the grades:
A – There are no A’s at this time of evaluation. Several in the B range have potential to be here but grades aren’t given solely on potential.
B – There are eight Bs. Three of the eight were drafted after the 22nd round. That means of the first 24 picks, only five were B’s.
C – There are five Cs. Two of these five were rated C’s because they met the expectation of being roster fillers.
D – There were fourteen Ds. Half of these were between rounds 13 and 22.
F – There were five Fs. Four of the five were in the first 14 picks.
No Grade – Sixteen players were not signed and hence not given a grade.
GPA= 1.5
This mid term report is solid grounds for a serious parent teacher conference. It appears it also may have been grounds for an owner/general manager conference. There is still some hope some of these guys will make it to the big leagues, but some serious work must be done.
Where are the draft picks of 2005?
Of the 48 players drafted in 46 rounds, 32 were signed. Of the 32 signed, there are only 12 left in the organization. Here is where they are as of the first week of May 2008 with their draft round and grade in parentheses.
Lexington: Barnes (6- D) Kelley (33-B)
Salem: Clemens (8-C), Iori (14-B)
Corpus Christi: Bogusevic (1-D), Iorg (1sup-B), Manzella (3-B), Flores (4-B on DL), Hart (5-C), Fairchild (12-B on DL), Blazek (23-B), Walker (24-B)
Round Rock: None
A quick note about the progress of the 2004 draftees. Two are in the bigs with the Astros (Pence, Towles) and two more are on the Astros 40 man roster (Reineke, James). Ben Zobrist is riding the pine on the red hot Devil Rays and hasn’t had an AB this year. Troy Patton, who was called up last September, was a key piece of the Tejada trade with Baltimore and is out for the season recovering from shoulder surgery. So that is six players out of the 2004 draft who have either graced a Major League Active or 40 man roster. I don’t see us saying that a year from now about the 2005 draft.