Hunter Pence was an easy call for last year’s top #1, and he made us look much smarter than we really are. You all know how big an impact Pence made at the major league level in his rookie year. That was preceded by a month of tearing up the Pacific Coast League. However, we would never have guessed that our numbers’ 2 -5 would not be in the organization for the 2008 season. But that’s what happened. Our #2 Patton and #3 Albers helped secure Miguel Tejada in trade. And our #4 Juan Gutierrez helped get closer Jose Valverde from Arizona. Our #5 Jimmy Barthmaier had a forgettable year, was released, and subsequently picked up by Pittsburgh. Our #6 Paul Estrada flopped in his first taste of AAA. Our #7 Felipe Paulino made good with his best minor league season and earned a major league call-up in September. #8 Sergio Perez was good but not dominant. #9 Chad Reineke had a fine year at Round Rock. And our #10 Eli Iorg started the season in fine fashion, but an injury put him on the shelf for most of the year.
Thanks to the work of new Astros General Manager Ed Wade this year’s top 10 features 7 new faces and quite a bit of movement for nearly all the prospects. There continues to be a severe lack of high end talent in the Astros system. Last year’s draft debacle did not help matters. So, new this year we provide you with our top 20 as there really are not enough higher quality players to make ranking each position in the system worthwhile. Surprisingly we did not have a difficult time selecting the top 20 though we did so while holding our noses. As you will see, we profile the top 10 as always, but numbers 11 – 20 feature only brief comments. We remind you now that we only consider prospects from the full season leagues for the top 10 and this year the top 20. Our top 10 features 5 pitchers (all right handed), 3 outfielders, 1 infielder, and 1 catcher. And now, on with the show.
1. J. R. Towles: 2/11/84. Towles was the 20th round draft pick in 2004 and has made the most of opportunities to rise to his current status as the expected starting catcher in Houston this season. Towles was drafted twice by the Oakland A’s prior to his selection by the Astros. He was sent to Greeneville after signing where he became a fan favorite with his enthusiasm, and pitchers reported enjoying having him behind the plate. After beginning 2005 in extended spring training he was on his way to Tri-City when, due to an injury to another catcher, was told to go to Lexington instead where he hit .345. He returned to Lexington in 2006 and while hitting over .300, had some issues that colored his progress. In addition to a nagging knee injury that caused him to miss some time, he also had a brief suspension for an outburst. Last season the OWA top 10 report captured this by reporting “above-average hitting and defensive skills, but concerns about the knee and attitude knock him down a tad”. Last season, J.R. started the season uneventfully in Salem, hitting just .200 to start the season. However, opportunity knocked when fellow catching prospect Lou Santangelo was suspended for 50 games. J.R. was called up to Corpus Christi where he again made the most of an opportunity, hitting .324 with 11 HR in 275 AB. He was then called up to AAA for 13 games where he hit .279. Afterward he was included in the September call-ups and again made the most of that opportunity, hitting .375 in 13 games and setting the Astros record with 8 RBI in one game. Towles was then sent to the Arizona Fall League but was called back home after 4 games because Houston brass had seen enough. J.R. was christened the starting catcher for the 2008 Astros. This season will be another opportunity for Towles. He will get a chance to be tutored by Brad Ausmus, who has already praised the young catcher’s receiving skills. What remains to be seen is if his bat can continue to produce .300+ averages and .400 range on-base percentages. Behind the plate, Towles will need to continue to develop his throwing footwork to keep runners in line and to put in practice Ausmus’s wisdom.
2. Felipe Paulino: 10/5/83. Paulino moves from #7 to #2 this year on the strength of a well pitched season and late season promotion to Houston. Despite missing the first few games of the season and getting a late season call-up, Paulino finished the year with the second most innings pitched in Corpus Christi with 112. He struck out 110 and walked 49. He gave up 103 hits and finished with a 1.36 WHIP and had more fly outs than ground outs. His excellent season earned him a September call-up to Houston. Though he was up and down as expected of a young player’s first taste of the show Paulino threw 19 innings, giving up 22 hits, 7 walks and 11 strike outs. In that limited action though he did have a solid 1.67 ground out to fly out ratio. Paulino also pitched in the Venezuelan Winter League. In 19.2 innings he allowed 20 hits and 16 walks. But limited the damage and finished with a 3.20 ERA. He struck out 19 and did a good job of keeping the ball on the ground. There’s no denying he still has the power arm and a reasonable breaking pitch. He still has work to do with the change-up and long-term the Astros still appear to see him as a closer rather than as a starter. As the top pitching prospect in the Astros system Paulino may very well start the season with the Astros either in the rotation, thanks to a lack of depth and talent, or the bullpen. At the very worst he’ll be sitting at the top of the Round Rock rotation waiting for his chance to return to Houston.
3. Brad James: 6/19/84. James was the 29th round draft pick in the 2004 draft out of North Central (Texas) Junior College. Prior to the second half of 2006 James was known as much for being a college teammate of J. R. Towles as anything else. Brad started his career by spending two seasons in Greeneville. Nothing in the numbers showed that there was much to expect from Brad. After missing the first half of 2006 rehabbing an injured arm, he started showing some promise. The second half of 2006 in Lexington and the first half of 2007 in Salem, he made a name for himself. His sinking fastball (88-91 mph) along with his slider made him very effective in Salem. He was promoted to AA Corpus Christi after leading the Carolina League in ERA and Wins. It appears though that he was focused on success more than development. As has been chronicled elsewhere, he wasn’t working on his secondary pitches. The jump to AA was rough on Brad. So the Astros gave him some extra work in the Arizona Fall League where he didn’t fair much better. In the off-season Brad had surgery to repair a broken bone in his foot but is expected to be ready for spring training. Staying injury free and developing the change-up will determine Brad’s progress in 2008. It is likely he will start at Corpus Christi to see if he can improve on his performance at the end of last year.
4. Tommy Manzella: 4/16/83. Manzella makes his debut in the top 10 having made a successful leap to AA thanks to a mid-season call-up. Manzella possesses the best infield glove in the Astros minors. Combining that with a strong arm and good range makes Tommy major league ready defensively. Offensively Manzella remains a work-in-progress. But in 2007 he did progress. He made contact regularly resulting in striking out in just 15.5% of his at-bats. In the first half of 2007 Manzella could rarely buy a hit though at high-A Salem. He hit just .238 with 13 doubles being his only extra-base hits in 223 at-bats. He walked 19 times while striking out just 30 times. After a mid-season promotion to AA Corpus Christi, Manzella found the hits falling in a bit more. In 228 at-bats he hit .289 with 12 doubles, 3 triples and 1 home run. He walked 19 times and struck out 40 times. Manzella was subsequently sent to the Arizona Fall League to try his hand against some of the minors’ best pitchers. He did more than try. Appearing in half of the Mesa Solar Sox games, Manzella hit .302 in 52 at-bats while walking 4 times and striking out 12 times. Manzella appears to be in the mold of Adam Everett, a slick defender who seems best suited to bat in the 2 or 8 spots. However with the off-season the trade for Miguel Tejada, Manzella’s short-term future appears to be as a AAA shortstop.
5. Chad Reineke: 4/9/82. Reineke moves from #9 last year to #5 this year on our top 10 list. The book on Reineke remains the same as last year: a solid low- to mid-90’s fastball, good slider, and mediocre change-up. Reineke spent all of 2007 at Round Rock and split his time evenly between the Express bullpen and rotation. Chad finished the season with 100 innings pitched and a 4.68 ERA. He allowed 99 hits and 52 walks for a 1.51 WHIP. Though the number of base runners Chad allowed was a bit high, Reineke’s 95 strike outs helped limit the damage. After the solid year at Round Rock the Astros sent Chad to the Arizona Fall League as well. There he worked exclusively out of the bullpen. In 11 games he threw 14 innings allowing 7 hits and 5 walks and striking out 14. He gave up 6 earned runs though 3 of those came in one game. He was prone to getting the ball in the air which might not be as big a problem for a strike out pitcher like Chad, but we’d like to see him get the ball down a bit more. It appears Reineke is destined for the Round Rock pitching staff to start the season. We’ve not heard whether he will starting games or be used exclusively out of the bullpen. He is in line for a call-up to the majors should the need arise in Houston though where he is in the pecking order has yet to be determined.
6. Josh Flores: 11/18/85. Flores was the 4th round pick in 2005. At Triton Junior College he became the first player to hit .500 for a season. His 15 triples bested the previous school record of 8 held by Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett. He had played shortstop in his one year of college but the Astros saw him as a centerfielder due to his speed. When drafted he was said to be the second fastest person in the system. Greeneville wasn’t much of a challenge for Flores. He hit .335, with 8 HR, 5 triples, 12 doubles and 20 stolen bases. His speed made up for his inexperience in center as he learned the position. In Lexington in 2006, he struggled some with the step up in competition hitting only .253. Yet his strikeouts remained in the 20% of at-bats range. In 2007 he started the season in Salem and showed that he had figured some things out. In the first 63 games of the season Flores hit .325 and showed some pop with a slugging percentage of .500. This earned him a trip to Corpus Christi. At AA Flores struggled to adjust to more advanced pitching, hitting just .219 over 60 games. Despite the struggles Flores earned an invite to the Arizona Fall League. There he started figuring out the advanced pitching and hit .292 over 14 games, hitting over .300 in his final 10. Flores approaches the game with a very strong work ethic. He continues to work on his defense (7 errors combined between Salem & Corpus Christi in 07). At 22, Flores can be expected to start the season at Corpus and if he continues to adjust could be at Round Rock for the second half of the season.
7. Sammy Gervacio: 1/10/85. Sammy was signed out of the Dominican Republic in December of 2002. After being named a 2004 Dominican Summer League All-Star the righty was brought to Greeneville in 2005. He showed that it was not much of a challenge by striking out 53 batters in 33.2 innings of relief. His ERA was 2.67, his highest ERA yet. After getting a brief taste of Lexington at the end of the 2005 season Sammy spent all of 2006 in Lexington. Pitching exclusively from the pen he struck out over a batter an inning (89 in 83.2 IP) and tallied 10 saves. In 2007 he started the season with Salem and was nothing short of dominant. He struck out 80 batters in 55.1 innings and had a WHIP of 1.03. As a result, the smallish (5’11”, 170 lbs) right hander was promoted to Corpus Christi to finish the season. At Corpus he still struck out more than a batter an inning (24 in 22.2) but he did show some difficulty adjusting by seeing his walks jump up to almost one every other inning. It is unusual for a pitcher to go his entire minor league career as a reliever but Gervacio is doing just that. The Astros appear to be grooming him for late-inning bullpen work in Houston. His progress warranted a spot on the 40 man roster prior to the 2007 Rule 5 draft. If he can continue his track record of dominance out of the pen he could garner a September call-up to Houston.
8. Sergio Perez: 12/5/84. Perez holds serve as he maintains his status as our #8 prospect again this year. Perez spent the entire season at high-A Salem. Perez sports a low- to mid-90’s fastball, excellent slider, and is working on his change-up. Statistically speaking his year appears to be unspectacular but taking a closer look there is reason to be optimistic. Perez logged 128.1 innings over 25 starts leaving him just 9 innings shy of staff leader Raymar Diaz. He did this despite missing several starts due to a groin injury. Perez gave up 129 hits, 43 walks, and hit 11 batters. He struck out 84 and finished with a 4.00 ERA. The league had a .264 batting average against. But Perez had a solid 1.46 ground out to fly out ratio. Oddly, Perez’s statistics mirror another former 2nd round selection of the Astros, former prospect Jason Hirsh. Both were moved to high-A Salem the year after being drafted. Hirsh finished his year there with very nearly identical statistics as Perez’s this year. We know now that Hirsh spent that entire year learning new mechanics and sacrificing statistics for development. We are not predicting that Perez will have a Texas League Pitcher of the Year type year in 2008 as Hirsh did in the season following his work in Salem. But we believe Perez has the type of stuff to do very well in the Texas League, especially if he has an improved change-up and should start the season at Corpus Christi.
9. Yordany Ramirez: 7/31/84. Ramirez’s inclusion here speaks volumes, not just of Ramirez’s talent, but mostly of the Astros lack thereof in the system. Ramirez was a minor league free agent, a Padres castoff, after the 2007 season. General Manager Ed Wade, who had been with the Padres organization, had plenty of opportunities to look at Ramirez’s work there. Ramirez comes to the Astros as a five tool talent who has not been a good hitter. Ramirez is considered by many in the Padres organization as a top tier centerfielder, and by some in the Padres organization as top five in all of baseball. He has the speed, arm, and range any team would want in a centerfielder. And he has displayed those tools regularly. He also comes to the Astros with an injury history. He has missed parts of four seasons with injuries. This has contributed to his biggest problem. His primary shortcoming is in the batter’s box. Ramirez is a free-swinger; a trait you do not look for in a leadoff hitter. The lack of game at-bats due to injury has not allowed Yordany the time in the batter’s box to develop desirable skills. In 2005 he finished the season with 369 at-bats and just 18 walks. Those 18 walks are a season high for him. But despite being a free swinger he has not struck out at a high rate. His worst year for strike outs was 2005 when he K’d 71 times. According to Padres personnel Ramirez started to show some of the promise his talent holds. Though not walking much Ramirez, at high-A Lake Elsinore, hit .269 in 286 at-bats recording 17 doubles, 2 triples, and 4 home runs. He was subsequently promoted to AAA Portland. There he hit .315 over 127 at-bats with 3 doubles and 4 home runs. 2007 was the first year Ramirez had ever had 400 or more at-bats in a season. Still, he only walked a grand total of 15 times. The Padres emphasize patience at the plate and taking pitches with their prospects. According to Padres personnel that approach was starting to sink in with Ramirez last year. Time will tell if Ramirez can put it all together offensively. The Astros will give him that chance at AAA Round Rock.
10. Jordan Parraz: 10/8/84. Parraz was drafted in the 6th round out of high school by the Phillies as a flame throwing pitcher. He wanted to play everyday so he went to junior college and was the 3rd round pick of the Astros in the 2004 draft. His first two years were unremarkable but came into his own in 2006 at Tri-City. That year he hit .336 and had an OPS of .915. He was not only the team leader but the league leader in hitting. In 2007 he performed well at Lexington playing primarily right field often showing off his strong arm. He hit .281 with an OPS of 810. Jordan should be in Salem this year. He will need another good year to break out of a pack of good but otherwise undistinguished outfielders and set himself up as the Astros right fielder of the future. A strong first half of 2008 could earn Parraz a mid-season promotion to Corpus Christi.
Now that you’ve seen our top 10, we present to you our second 10. We feature 5 left handed pitchers, 1 right handed pitcher, 3 outfielders, and 1 infielder. There is some raw talent here but also a large number of question marks.
11. Mitch Einertson. Finally had a quality full season at the plate. But where does he fit best in the outfield? Does not have the speed and range you want in center; does not have the arm you want in right; has not slugged enough to warrant left.
12. Eli Iorg. Began 2007 with a solid effort but a freak elbow injury on a pick-off play ended his year. Will be 25 in 2008 and needs to stay healthy and have a break out year. But is there or will there be soon a spot in Houston for him?
13. Polin Trinidad. Lanky lefty with a good fastball and slider but still learning how to pitch. Needs to cut down on the home runs allowed. Could rocket up the list with a high caliber season.
14. Bud Norris. Bulldog right hander who handled the Sally League and Hawaiian Winter League. Questions about being a 2-pitch pitcher and too advanced for low-A knock him down a notch.
15. Wesley Wright. Rule 5 draft pick up in December. Let go by the Dodgers who did not have enough room on their 40-man roster to keep him. Would have easily made the Astros 40-man. Will have a shot at the Astros bullpen and could be the situational lefty replacing Trever Miller.
16. Chris Johnson. Only third base prospect in full-season ball in the organization. Should be given third base full-time this year after splitting time between third, short, and first for half a season while at Lexington. A good defender but needs to step up with the bat.
17. James Van Ostrand. Canadian Futures Game participant in 2007. Matched Parraz offensively last season but lacks his athleticism which may keep him from supplanting Parraz in the outfield pecking order.
18. Brian Bogusevic. Former first round pick. His stock has fallen as injuries and a lack of development have kept him from being a consistently high performer. Will be 24 for 2008 at AA and will need to show he can convert the talent that got him drafted in the first round into production.
19. Sergio Severino. Smaller lefty with raw talent. Needs to continue developing all aspects of his game including controlling his emotions on the mound.
20. David Qualben. Crafty lefty with average stuff but a ridiculously good pick-off move. Should continue his climb up the organization ladder. Could be a bullpen candidate down the road.
To further our analysis of the Astros minor league system we put together a list of the other Astros prospects to keep an eye on this year. One thing you should notice quickly is the lack of projectable position players and pitchers in the full-season leagues last year. Further, those listed have major developmental, age, and/or ceiling issues. You should also notice there are a number of raw but talent players in the short-season leagues. Many of those players will need time to develop, and because they are so young they will washout at a fairly high rate. Lastly notice too there are a few players listed from the Caribbean leagues (Dominican Summer League and the Venezuelan Summer League). There are many young players on those teams with talent, but too many to mention here as many will never make it the US and most will never reach even the high minors. We have listed for you the ones who stood out the most particularly because of age and accomplishments. We present them to you in alphabetical order, broken down generally by position and level played last year. There are 5 catchers, 9 infielders, 5 outfielders, 11 right handed pitchers, and 9 left handed pitchers listed.
Catchers
Full Season
Koby Clemens (Conversion to catcher begins after 3 mediocre seasons at third.)
Lou Santangelo (Can he recover after a disastrous 2007?)
Max Sapp (Star is dimming on former first rounder. Still young and showed flashes of the power bat last season. Weight issues and lack of development continue.)
Short Season
Kyle Miller (Began conversion to catcher but played only one game there. Came on offensively late in the season.)
Reinaldo Pestana (Good defender, but erratic thrower. Fair batting average, but needs better plate discipline.)
Infielders
Full Season
Jonny Ash (Successful return to AA though season ended early with knee injury. But is time running out?)
Ronald Ramirez (Very late start to the season. Was effective offensively in limited action.)
Wladimir Sutil (Versatile middle infielder. Plus speed, no pop.)
Tim Torres (Versatile playing both second and short for Lexington and Salem. Hit fairly well with some power. Age knocks him down a bit here.)
Short Season
Matthew Cusick (Solid hitter and second baseman. Handled short season without problems.)
David Dixon (Began transition to second from outfield splitting time between the two. Hit .256 after not playing college ball all spring due to a thumb injury.)
Ebert Rosario (Raw talent offensively and defensively at third base. Concerns about emotional make up.)
Caribbean
Jose Altuve (Diminutive second baseman hit .343 as a 17 year old in his first season at the Venezuelan Summer League.)
Ricardo Bonfante (.378 OBP with speed at 18 in the VSL and a shortstop.)
Outfielders
Full Season
None beyond the top 20.
Short Season
Brandon Barnes (Made strides last season offensively. Also showed some pop tying for the league lead in home runs.)
Steve Brown (Good defender and hitter for average but needs to show more power and a willingness to take a walk.)
Colin Delome (Raw offensively and defensively in center but handled NY-Penn League pitching. Could be in for rapid advancement.)
Axel Gonzalez (Raw in all facets of the game. Talent is there with his offense lagging behind his defense currently.)
Devon Torrence (2 sport athlete playing college football for Ohio State. Very raw but extremely athletic. Showed glimpses of development in short time at Greeneville. The sooner he chooses baseball full-time the faster his development.)
Right Handed Pitchers
Full Season
Raymar Diaz (Solid as a starter at Salem but highly effective out of the pen late in the year.)
Paul Estrada (Complete flop at AAA. Can he bounce back and get in line for a bullpen spot in Houston?)
Casey Hudspeth (Drafted as similar to but more polished than Norris. Has not had Norris’s success.)
Reid Kelly (Used exclusively out of the Lexington bullpen. Had better than a strike out per inning pitched.)
Short Season
Robert Bono (Very raw. Had a shaky pro debut in Greeneville. Needs to work on control problems.)
Leandro Cespedes (Smallish pitcher had a solid Stateside debut. 2 plus pitches already. Could rise rapidly.)
David Dinelli (Saw limited action due to injury. Power arm is there.)
Jason Dominguez (Very effective as the ValleyCats closer.)
Kyle Greenwalt (Like Bono very raw and had a shaky debut in Greeneville.)
Brett Robinson (Polished pitcher for rookie ball. Effective as the Greeneville closer. Limited upside.)
Caribbean
Joel Romero (More than a strike out per inning pitched as a 19 year old in his Dominican Summer League debut.)
Left Handed Pitchers
Full Season
Chris Blazek (Another successful year in the bullpen. Nearly a strike out per inning and red hot in August and September.)
Josh Muecke (Can the soft-tossing lefty make a push for the Astros bullpen after a solid year at AA and successful work out of the bullpen in the Arizona Fall League?)
Chris Salamida (Promotion to high-A after amazing short-season in 2006 proved forgettable.)
Short Season
Fernando Abad (Good WHIP and strike out numbers. Age and level knock him down a bit. Could see rapid rise.)
Jeff Icenogle (Nice debut for the first year free agent signee out of the MLB academy.)
Antonio Noguera (Solid first year in the States. Raw but talented.)
Colton Pitkin (Late start due to shoulder soreness. Didn’t turn 18 until August. Extremely raw but showed improvement.)
Caribbean
Angel Gonzalez (More than a strike out per inning pitched and a .236 batting average against in the DSL and did not turn 19 until August.)
German Perez (Solid second season in the VSL and did not turn 18 until late September.)
This year we had 19 entries in the Top 10 contest. The winner is accougars with a total score of 84 with 9 correct players and 3 of those in the correct position. Second place went to Noe in Austin with 72 points and 8 correct players. Third place went to Hornstros with 67 points and 7 correct players. You can now go to the Top 10 Contest page and see all the entries and scores.