Pat Dye, former Auburn football coach and ignorer of NCAA rules, once said “Hindsight is 50/50”. As the 2007 draft approaches, let’s use some hindsight on the 2004 draft and see if they did 50/50.
The players from the 2004 draft have 2 ½ seasons under their belts. It is still early in their development, especially for the high school and college freshman picks. Consider this a mid term progress report on how the players from the 2004 draft are developing. Remember progress report grades can still be brought up or down depending on how you do the rest of the grading term.
There are two primary areas factored in the grading process: What progress is the player showing and what value should be expected
out of that slot in the draft. The lone A+ is being given to the 29th pick of Brad James because you don’t expect to see the level of
pitching he has shown over the last season and a half from a pick this low. He is maximizing his potential and the picks value appears to be maximized as well. Players who have been released get different grades based on their draft slots. A player who was drafted in the top 15 who is released after a season or two is considered a greater failure than one who was picked in the bottom 20 and was released after a season or two.
Here is the grading scale:
A- Player is maximizing potential, Maximum value for pick
B – Player is showing signs of potential, Good value for pick
C – Player is showing mixed signs of potential, About what you would expect for pick.
D – Player is not meeting potential, Not getting bang for buck.
F – Player is no longer in Baseball, What were you thinking picking this guy
2nd round Hunter Pence, LF, R/R, 6’4”, 210, DOB 4/13/83, University of Texas at Arlington.
Hunter has moved up through the Astros system quickly adjusting nicely to each level. He garnered a great deal of positive attention following his home run out burst in Lexington in 2005. Hunter spent 06 in CC and earned a visit to the Arizona Fall League. He played well but was sent home early after an arrest for DUI. Hunter dealt with things to the apparent satisfaction of the Astros brass and was invited to Big Boy Spring Training where he simply tore the cover off the ball. After a short stint AAA, Hunter joined the Big Boys.
Grade = A
3rd round Jordan Parraz, CF, R/R, 6’3”, 220, DOB 10/8/84, Community College of Southern Nevada.
Jordan spent his first three seasons in the short season leagues. The third time was a charm. He had a break out year in 2006 with Tri Cities and has represented himself well in Lexington to start 2007. A great deal of ladder left to climb for Jordan.
Grade = B-
4th round – Louis Santangelo, C, R/R, 6’1”, 200, DOB 3/16/83, Clemson University.
Lou has climbed a level a year and started 2007 at CC. He has been a strong receiver and an adequate hitter. Is currently serving a 50 game performance enhancing drug suspension. This is definitely a bump in the road of his development.
Grade = C-
5th round – Mitch Einertson, CF, R/R, 5’10”, 178, DOB 4/4/86, Rancho Buena Vista High School, California.
Einertson was the first high school player taken by the Astros in this draft. He came in to the system with a bang, tying the Appy League record for home runs. His strikeout rate was a concern and it has proved to be an issue as he has moved up. He has also missed some time a few years ago to address “family issues”.
Mitch’s strong start may have raised expectations too high. His is now at Salem where his average is improving, his strike outs are around 18% but his power has decreased. Still early for this 21 year old but the luster has worn off the 2004 golden boy. He is going to have to prove himself both on and off the field if he is to regain prospect status.
Grade – D
6th round – Benjamin Zobrist, SS, S/R, 6’3”, 200, DOB 5/26/81, Dallas Baptist University.
Ben was traded to the Devil Rays along with Mitch Talbot as a part of the Aubrey Huff deal last year. He was quickly moved to the majors by the Devil Rays. I think this says less about his talent and more about the desperation of the Devil Rays. He is below the Mendoza line in the bigs this year.
Grade – A-
7th round – Andrew Alvarado, RHP, R/R, 6’1”, 200, DOB 12/3/82, Chabot College
Andrew debuted in Tri Cities and then split the 05 season between Tri Cities and Lexington. He was release the next year.
Grade – F
8th round – Evan Englebrook, RHP, R/R, 6’8”, 225, DOB 4/28/82, Shippensburg University.
Even started 14 games for Tri Cities in 04. He has since split time between starting & bullpen work during his time with Lexington in 05 and Salem in 06. He started pitching from the bullpen in CC where he has given up at least 1 earned run in 8 of his last 10 appearances. He was sent down to EST and has now resurfaced in Salem.
Grade – C
9th round – Troy Patton, LHP, S/L, 6’1”, 185, DOB 9/3/85, Tomball High School, Texas.
A lot has already been said about Troy. He is the top pitching prospect in the organization at this time and was a steal in the 9th round of the draft. Since his 2004 season in Greeneville, he been promoted in season. He started 05 in Lexington and finished in Salem. He started 06 in Salem and finished in CC. He has started 07 in CC and we will see where he finishes. Will it be in RR , in MM, both or spend the whole year in CC-
Grade A
10th round – Eric Cavers, C, R/R, 6’1”, 205, DOB 11/9/82, Franklin Pierce College.
Eric started in Greeneville but was injured most of the year. He then moved up to Tri Cities in 05. He was in Lexington to begin 2006 but was released.
Grade – F
11th round – Jonathan Ash, 2B, L/R, 5’9”, 185, DOB 9/11/82, Stanford University.
Jonathan started his bus ride in Tri Cities in 04. He then split 05 between Lexington and Salem. He then moved to CC in 06 and returned there in 2007. Jonathan has had solid seasons at each level. He is seen as a guy who will hit for average and could be a good utility player off the bench.
Grade: B
12th round – Bryan Triplett, SS, R/R, 6’0”, 185, DOB 4/16/82, University of South Carolina.
Bryan started his journey in Greeneville. He was old for the league and didn’t hit impressively but made sure his uniform was dirty after every game. In 2005, he started in Lexington and moved the Salem during the season. His numbers decreased as the competition increased. The result was being released before the 2006 season.
Grade F
13th round – Chad Reineke, RHP, R/R, 6-6-, 210, DOB 4/9/82, Miami (Ohio)University.
Chad has made it all the way to Round Rock in his forth season with the Astros. He had a rough start to the 2007 campaign but has turned it around in May. Must cut down on walks to move to the next level.
Grade – B
14th round – Ole Sheldon, 1B, R/R, 6’4”, 210, DOB 11/25/82, University of Oklahoma.
In a position that is thin in the Astros system, Sheldon is a prospect by default. He started 2004 in Greeneville where he hit the first home run in the history of the Greeneville Astros. He went on to hit only two more and bat .217 for the season. In 05, he spent the second half of the year in Lexington. His numbers improved. He split 06 between Lexington and Salem. For the year he batted .313 and had an OBP of .430. He is in Salem for 2007. The lack of pop is the hole in his game up to this point. So far in 2007, he has 6 dingers. That is almost half the number he had hit (13) in the previous 2 ½ seasons. If the pop improves and the OBP continues as he moves up; Ole could turn into a very pleasant surprise.
Grade – B-
15th round – Stephen “Drew” Sutton, SS, S/R, 6’3”, 185, DOB 6/30/83, Baylor University.
Drew has climbed from Tri Cities to Corpus over the last 4 years. He has reduced his strikeouts consistently over the last few years. Has shown adequate pop for a middle infielder but not great average.
Grade – C+
16th round – Garrett Murdy, RHP, R/R, 6’4”, 215, DOB 3/15/83, Texas A&M – Kingsville.
After pitching in Lexington in 2006, Murdy was released out of spring training in 2007.
Grade – D
17th round – Wallace Torbert, LF, R/R, 6’4”, 205, DOB 5/1/83, Faulker University.
Beau has been a bit of a surprise. He struggled in Greeneville but was never really healthy in 2004. He joined Lexington out of EST in 2005 and went on to pull out a 301 average for the rest of the year. In 2006 he was the MVP of the Salem team and was among the league leaders in Average, and doubles. He is in CC for the 2007 campaign, though he got a late start due to an injury. He recently had an 8 game hitting streak at CC. He can hit, the only questions are can he control K’s and will he develop some pop in his bat. He is not fast enough to play center and not enough pop for the corner positions. Looking like a 4th outfielder prospect.
Grade – B
18th round – Robert Clark, C, R/R, 6’3”, 200, DOB 8/10/82, Eastern Kentucky University.
Chris was released before the 2006 season.
Grade – D
19th round – Jared Clark, RHP, 6’4”, 195, DOB 5/9/86, Valencia High School, California.
Attended Cal. State Fullerton no grade
20th round – Justin Towles, C, R/R, 6’2”, 175, DOB 2/11/84, North Central Texas Community College.
JR started in Greeneville in 2004. He then was driving to Tri Cities when EST broke in 2005 and got the call to change direction and head to Lexington. JR made the most of that opportunity. He spent 2006 in Lexington as well. He had some injury issues and an attitude adjustment but still came out okay. He was assigned to Salem to start the year but has been called up to CC for what is intended to be a brief stay. We will see if he takes advantage of this opportunity the way he did back in 2005. JR has developed into the best catching prospects in the system.
Grade B+
21st round – Ryan Reed, RF, L/L, 6’4”, 210, DOB 12/19/83, Louisiana State University at Eunice.
I keep trying to write Ryan Reed off and he keeps hanging around. He spent 04 and part of 05 in Greeneville. He moved to Lexington in 05 and spent all of 06 there. He strikes out too much; he doesn’t hit for average; he doesn’t hit for power; and yet he is in Salem this year. I trust the Astros know something here that I don’t.
Grade – C-
22nd round – Matthew Brown, RHP, R/R, 6’5”, 235, DOB 8/14/82, University of California – Berkeley.
He signed but never played- No Grade
23rd round – Jeffrey Wigdahl, LHP, L/L, 6’0”, 190, DOB 6/4/82, St. Mary-s University.
Jeff has moved up from his start at Tri Cities in 04 to his current stop at CC. He has had stops along the way at Lexington and Salem. He has only made one start in his pro career. The was a save leader at Lexington and has continued to do late inning work and be a back up closer as he has moved up.
Grade – C
24th round – Brandon Averill, 3B, R/R, 6’4”, 215, DOB 10/18/81, UCLA.
Was released before the 2005 season.
Grade D
25th round – Andrew Darnell, RF, R/R, 6’1”, 215, DOB 7/15/86, Castro Valley High School, California.
Draft and follow high schooler. He went to JuCo and was drafted in 05 as a 35th rounder. He signed as a DFE before the 06 season. No Grade
26th round – Jared Brite, RHP, R/R, 6’4”, 230, DOB 2/20/82, Kansas State University.
Signed but never pitched, No Grade
27th round – Casey Brown, RHP, R/R, 6’0”, 215, DOB 2/13/82, University of Oklahoma.
Brown was released before the 2005 season.
Grade – D
28th round – Chris Sotro, RHP. R/R, 6’1”, 205, DOB 12/8/80, California State Polytechnic University – Pomona.
Released before the 2005 season.
Grade – D
29th round – Brad James, RHP, R/R, 6’2”, 200, DOB 6/19/84, North Central Texas College.
This pick is starting to look very good. Brad spent the first two season of his pro career in Greeneville where his ERA hovered around 4.50. After an off-season injury and some time in EST in 2006, he arrived in Lexington and has been outstanding ever since. He has developed a sinking fastball that has resulted in many groundballs. He is a Salem this year in if he keeps up what he is doing right now might wind up in CC before the year is out.
Grade – A+
30th round – Brandon Barganier, OF, L/R, 6’1”, 175, DOB 5/5/83, Temple College.
Spent 04 in Greeneville and part of 05 in Lexington. Was released before the 06 season.
Grade – C
31st round – Christopher Uhle, SS, R/R, 5-10-, 180, DOB 9/11/82, Eastern Illinois University.
Spent 04 in Greeneville and was released prior to the 05 season
Grade – D
32nd round – Patrick Sellers, 3B, R/R, 6’0”, 195, DOB 4/3/82, Eastern Kentucky University.
Another surprise here. Neil started his bus ride in Greeneville. He went to Tri Cities the next year and hit very well. So well in fact that he skipped Lexington and went straight to Salem. He represented him self adequately in Salem and has landed at CC this year. He doesn’t strike out much and he continues to prove he can hit. The consensus here is that he is a good roster filler, career minor leaguer. However, he keeps doing well as he is moved and he has played 1B & 3B which are sparse positions in the system.
Grade – B
33rd round – James Cooper, CF, R/R, 6’3”, 185, DOB 2/12/82, Grambling State University.
Played for Tri Cities in 2004 and then was released before the 2005 season. He is now in the system of the “Evil Empire” where is playing at Tampa in the FSL. Not sure what the story is behind this.
Grade – F
34th round – Nicholas Cobler, LHP, L/L, 6’3”, 180, DOB 7/30/86, Strake Jesuit High School, Texas.
DFE who went the JUCO route. He was redrafted in the 44th Round in 2005 and wasn’t signed. No Grade
35th round – Kyle Woodruff, RHP, R/R, 6-6-, 225, DOB 5/2/86, Leland High School, California.
Attended College of San Mateo (JUCO) then Chico State(DII) No Grade
36th round – Anthony Dewitt, RHP, R/R, 6’0”, 225, DOB 5/30/82, University of Southern Mississippi.
DeWitt split 04 between Greeneville & Tri Cities. He jumped to Salem in 05 and returned their in 06 before being released in May of 06.
Grade – C
37th round – Bradley Chedister, RHP, R/R, 6’5”,220, DOB 4/28/81, Louisiana Tech University.
Pitched one year for Greeneville and was released before the 2005 season
Grade – C
38th round – Brandon Todd, RHP, R/R, 6’1”, 205, DOB 4/5/85, Central Florida Community College.
DFE who didn’t sign. No Grade
39th round- Zachary Williams, RHP, R/R, 6’4”, 210, DOB 9/23/84, Lindsay High School, Oklahoma.
DFE and was redrafted out of Seminole CC in 2005 in the 41st round as a DFE. Not signed. No Grade
40th round – Dane Ponciano, C, S/R, 5’11’, 195, DOB 8/18/86, Mount Miguel High School, California.
Draft and follow high schooler went to CCSN and was drafted in 2005 by the Twins. No Grade
41st round – Casey McCleskey, CF, R/R, 6’2”, 185, DOB 5/26/86, Burkburnett High School, Texas.
Draft and follow high schooler, attended Temple college was redrafted as a DFE in 2005. Didn’t sign. No Grade
42nd round – Joshua Smith, RHP, R/R, 6’5”, 200, DOB 1/14/83, Riverside Community College.
DFE who didn’t sign. No Grade
43rd round – Thomas Rafferty, RF, R/R, 6’1”, 165, DOB 2/5/85, Temple College.
DFE candidate who didn’t sign. No grade
44th round – Vladimir Frias, SS, S/R, 6’2”, 160, DOB 9/6/86, Chipola Junior College.
DFE who didn’t sign. No grade.
45th round – Christopher Siewert, SS, R/R, 6’0”, 195, DOB 1/4/85, Community College of Southern Nevada.
DFE who didn’t sign. No grade
46th round – Anthony Adler, RHP, R/R, 6’4”, 195, DOB 6/6/80, University of Texas at Dallas.
Split 2004 between Greeneville and Lexington. Released before the 2005 season.
Grade – C
47th round – Corey Bass, RHP, R/R, 6’3”, 210, DOB 2/8/85, Pearl River Community College.
DFE who signed and pitched in Greeneville in 05 and 06. He is currently pitching out of the pen in Lexington.
Grade – C+
48th round – Eric Epperson, CF, L/R, 6’0”, 165, DOB 9/14/86, Arlington Heights High School, Texas.
DFE who attended a NCAA college and could not be signed. No grade
49th round – Matthew Gardner, C, R/R, 6’2”, 215, DOB 11/2/84, Andrews High School, Texas.
DFE who didn’t sign – No grade
50th round – Victor Ferrante, RHP, R/R, 6’3”, 215, DOB 12/6/84, Solano Junior College.
Repeat DFE who wasn’t signed – No grade
Summary:
Overall, of the players who signed and played in the system, there are 4 A’s, 7 B’s, 10 C’s, 7 D’s, and 4 F’s. Yes, my friends, that is a bell curve looking graph. Not a bad looking draft at this point in time. Again, this is a mid term report, the true test of how good of a draft this is will come after the 2009 season.