The 2005 Astros finished 11th in the National League with 4.3 runs per game. The 2006 Astros rank even worse at 15th in the National League, although they?re scoring slightly more than last season, with 4.5 runs per game.
Some upgrades to the line-up in 2006, including a full season of a healthy Lance Berkman and adding Preston Wilson in the outfield, were expected to result in a better offensive performance, but the Astros have seen some regression in other areas.
One way to evaluate the ups and downs is to estimate the number of runs created by players at each position. The simplest way to estimate runs created is as follows:
(On-Base Percentage * Slugging Percentage) / At-Bats
While not as sophisticated as other models, for the 2006 National League, this equation estimates actual runs scored with an average error of about 3 percent.
For example, the 2006 Astros have a .330 OBP, .401 slugging percentage and 3,303 at-bats, resulting in an estimated 437 runs created. The Astros have actually scored 436 runs. The equation seldom yields an estimate this precise, but it gets close enough for a useful comparison.
The figures below are based on the 2005 and 2006 OBPs and slugging percentages for Astros players, based on their number of at-bats thus far this season.
Catchers: +2
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .238 .316 .315 .631 35 2006 .242 .310 .335 .645 37
Astros catchers have been more or less a wash at the plate between 2005 and 2006. Brad Ausmus, after a rough first half in 2005, had a nice finish:
Split Avg OBP Slg OPS RC --------------------------------------- First Half .241 .327 .294 .621 18 Second Half .275 .373 .365 .738 27
This season, Ausmus started off hot in April but has suffered a dramatic decline at the plate since then:
Split Avg OBP Slg OPS RC ------------------------------------ April .339 .462 .387 .849 11 May-July .215 .255 .278 .532 15
Overall in 2006, Ausmus has been less productive than in 2005, given the same number of at-bats:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .258 .351 .331 .682 32 2006 .244 .308 .303 .611 25
Meanwhile, whatever defensive liabilities Eric Munson has presented this season, he has been an improvement at the plate over what Raul Chavez and Humberto Quintero provided in 2005:
Player Avg OBP Slg OPS RC ------------------------------------------------ 2005 Chavez-Quintero .176 .208 .261 .469 8 2006 Munson .215 .303 .374 .677 12
That difference is even starker given that Chavez and Quintero created an estimated four fewer runs despite having 46 more at-bats.
First Basemen: +19
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .266 .363 .461 .824 65 2006 .319 .382 .570 .952 84
As one would expect, replacing the injured Jeff Bagwell and a revolving door at first base last season with Berkman and Mike Lamb sharing time in 2006 has produced distinctly superior offensive results. Production by Astros first basemen for the 2005 season was shared as follows:
Player Avg OBP Slg OPS RC ------------------------------------ Berkman .317 .440 .567 1.007 75 Lamb .204 .243 .361 .604 17 Bagwell .250 .361 .398 .759 13
With Berkman spending more time in right field this season, the split with Lamb at first base is a bit closer to even:
Player Avg OBP Slg OPS RC ----------------------------------- Berkman .307 .375 .578 .952 47 Lamb .342 .399 .578 .977 37
Lamb?s resurgence has helped bring about an estimated 19-run turnaround at first base, the biggest increase for the Astros at any position in 2006. Lamb has been a key difference-maker offensively for the 2006 Astros. Here is Lamb?s improvement from 2005 to 2006, inclusive of all positions played, based on the same number of at-bats:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .236 .284 .419 .703 27 2006 .319 .369 .511 .880 43
Second Basemen: -11
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .267 .326 .469 .795 62 2006 .252 .321 .395 .716 51
The Astros have seen a loss of an estimated 11 runs created out of their second baseman at the plate in 2006. Last season was mostly Craig Biggio at second base. A decrease in slugging percentage has seen Biggio?s estimated runs created drop, given the same number of at-bats:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .264 .325 .468 .792 52 2006 .262 .327 .417 .744 47
Others at second base have also been even less productive in 2006 (mostly Chris Burke and Eric Bruntlett) than in 2005 (mostly Jose Vizcaino, Burke and Bruntlett), given the same number of at-bats:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .245 .288 .378 .666 10 2006 .204 .275 .269 .543 7
Thus, the decline at second base has been a group effort and not merely a result of Biggio?s aging.
Third Basemen: -13
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .283 .384 .548 .932 74 2006 .237 .370 .466 .836 61
Morgan Ensberg might have been due to cool off, but few people expected his batting average to wind up so low and his power to short out a month or two into the season. Nonetheless, Ensberg?s 2006 demise has not been as great, compared to 2005, as fans might guess, given the same number of at-bats:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .283 .388 .557 .945 60 2006 .236 .390 .500 .890 54
If Ensberg comes back from injury, he might be able to close some of the gap. Meanwhile, Ensberg?s subs in 2005 (mostly Lamb and Vizcaino, after Lamb got hot), were markedly better than his 2006 replacements have been (mostly Lamb when he was not so hot and Huff), given the same number of at-bats:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .288 .365 .485 .850 14 2006 .235 .295 .333 .629 8
So while third base has represented a loss of an estimated 13 runs created from 2005 to 2006, only about half of that has been Ensberg. The other half has been his back-ups.
Shortstops: -1
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .241 .284 .352 .636 35 2006 .241 .302 .325 .627 34
Like catcher, shortstop has been more or less even for the Astros between 2005 and 2006. Adam Everett has been a little worse at the plate in 2006 than in 2005:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .248 .290 .364 .654 32 2006 .238 .296 .325 .620 29
Others at shortstop in 2006 (Bruntlett and Burke) have yielded slightly higher runs created estimates than their 2005 counterparts (Vizcaino and Bruntlett):
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .194 .254 .258 .512 3 2006 .260 .351 .340 .691 6
So the setback to Everett has been mostly alleviated by his subs.
Left Fielders: +6
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .244 .310 .388 .698 47 2006 .281 .320 .421 .741 53
Wilson was expected to bring stability to left field this season, which he has. The Astros have seen an improvement of an estimated six runs created, based on the same number of at-bats out of their left fielders.
In 2005, the Astros wrote nine different left fielders onto the line-up card, none of whom logged a majority of the plate appearances at the position. (They were Burke, Berkman, Orlando Palmeiro, Luke Scott, Lamb, Jason Lane, Todd Self, Charles Gipson and Bruntlett.) The 2006 Astros have featured seven different left fielders (Wilson, Burke, Palmeiro, Bruntlett, Scott, Berkman and Lane), but Wilson has gotten the vast majority of the playing time.
As written previously, Wilson?s 2006 performance is not significantly different than his production from 2003 to 2005 outside Coors Field, given the same number of at-bats:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC ------------------------------------- 2003-2005 .251 .315 .444 .759 50 2006 .277 .314 .422 .736 47
The Astros might have expected a bit more power out of Wilson, particularly in Minute Maid Park, but overall the Astros have gotten what they should have expected from their free-agent left fielder.
Center Fielders: +2
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .293 .332 .372 .704 49 2006 .277 .340 .379 .719 51
Center field has also been fairly consistent for the Astros season on season, given the same number of at-bats. A significant turnaround has been Willy Taveras, whose offense has suffered from 2005 to 2006, given equal at-bats:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .291 .325 .341 .666 34 2006 .257 .308 .309 .618 29
Burke has taken up the slack, however, most often starting in place of Taveras in center field. Here is Burke compared in 2005 and 2006, at all positions played, based on the same number of at-bats:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .248 .309 .368 .676 24 2006 .290 .371 .488 .859 38
Burke?s improvement and replacement of Taveras has resulted in a net increase in estimated runs created from Astros center fielders in 2006, and Burke, along with Lamb, has been among the most pleasant surprises for the 2006 club.
Right Fielders: +9
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .264 .317 .470 .787 52 2006 .256 .372 .470 .842 61
Of all the Astros, the position player suffering arguably the biggest collapse has been Jason Lane. Lane had a decent if unremarkable 2005, while 2006 turned into a nightmare. Here is the comparison, with equal numbers of at-bats:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .267 .316 .499 .815 35 2006 .205 .330 .393 .722 29
That drop-off, which landed Lane back in the minors, has been overcome by putting Berkman in left field and Lamb at first base. This amounts to a switch of Lamb for Lane, which is a helpful move, at least offensively.
Speaking of Berkman, here is a comparison of 2005 and 2006, based on the same number of at-bats, at all positions played:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .293 .411 .524 .934 71 2006 .317 .403 .595 .998 79
Among National Leaguers, Berkman ranks 11th in batting average, ninth in OBP, third in slugging percentage, second in OPS and third in runs created. He is simply one of the best hitters in baseball and is the most valuable asset the Astros have.
Pitchers: -3
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .169 .208 .199 .407 6 2006 .103 .157 .128 .285 3
For whatever reason, in 2006 Astros pitchers have been even more abysmal than one would normally expect. Fortunately, the effects have been almost negligible, an estimated three runs created.
Pinch Hitters: -6
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .252 .320 .394 .714 16 2006 .198 .285 .286 .571 10
Astros pinch hitters have also performed extremely poorly in 2006, resulting in a decline of an estimated six runs created from 2005, given the same number of at-bats. A big part of this has been that Palmeiro, who has as many pinch at-bats as any four other Astros combined, has had a calamitous decline:
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .284 .341 .431 .772 11 2006 .219 .288 .260 .548 6
Designated Hitters: +4
Year Avg OBP Slg OPS RC -------------------------------- 2005 .143 .231 .171 .402 1 2006 .270 .357 .378 .735 5
In their interleague games, the Astros have at least made more of the designated hitter in 2006 than they did in 2005, resulting in a net gain of an estimated four runs created.
Summary
To sum up the year-on-year changes by position:
Pos 2005 2006 Change ----------------------- C 35 37 +2 1B 65 84 +19 2B 62 51 -11 3B 74 61 -13 SS 35 34 -1 LF 47 53 +6 CF 49 51 +2 RF 52 61 +9 P 6 3 -3 PH 16 10 -6 DH 5 1 +4
That puts the 2006 Astros a bit ahead of the 2005 Astros offensively. The downturns by Ausmus, Biggio, Ensberg, Taveras, Lane and Palmeiro have been more than offset by the improvements by Berkman, Lamb and Burke, as well as the additions of Munson and Wilson, at least through the first three-fifths of the season.
But a club languishing next-to-last in its league in scoring is going to have a tough time making the playoffs. Pitching and defense may be keys to winning, but a team that cannot put runs on the scoreboard regularly enough will not survive by pitching and defense alone.