After somewhat of a roller-coaster ride through the first three-and-a-half months of the season, Preston Wilson currently has the following line for 2006:
Avg OBP Slg OPS G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB -------------------------------------------------------------- .283 .321 .422 .742 85 332 94 18 2 9 34 47 18
That projects for the full season to the following:
Avg OBP Slg OPS G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB -------------------------------------------------------------- .283 .321 .422 .742 157 613 174 33 4 15 63 87 33
If you compare that to Wilson’s track record, it’s amazingly similar to what he’s done in the past. An earlier column discussed what Wilson did from 2003 to 2005, excluding his Coors Field numbers. Here are those numbers again:
Avg OBP Slg OPS G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB -------------------------------------------------------------- .251 .315 .444 .759 157 613 154 35 1 27 75 75 61
Wilson’s power numbers are less than one might expect, but he’s hitting for a higher average. That’s a trade-off of just 12 total bases. He’s walking less this season, though, which is why his OBP is only slightly higher despite the big jump in batting average.
Also, in 2006, Wilson is scoring runs at a lower rate but driving them in at a higher rate. If you add his runs and RBI together, it’s 150 in both his 2006 projected numbers and his earlier performance.
Wilson’s track record also suggested that he might create an estimated 86 runs in 613 at-bats. His current pace projects to an estimated 83 runs created, almost right on target.
Of course, a midseason projection does not necessarily accurately foretell what Wilson’s final 2006 numbers will look like, particularly given that Wilson has been up and down thus far this season:
Month Avg OBP Slg OPS HR R RBI ------------------------------------------ April .231 .276 .407 .683 5 13 11 May .295 .327 .362 .689 0 8 15 June .337 .364 .505 .869 3 9 16 July .243 .317 .432 .749 0 4 4
Since an awful April, Wilson is batting .303 with a .341 OBP, .424 slugging percentage and .765 OPS. If he maintains something close to that pace, Wilson might even beat what he’s done the last three seasons.
There has been some discussion of Wilson’s performance in the clutch. The numbers below demonstrate that Wilson’s has generally hit well with runs on base and in scoring position, although the majority of his home runs have been solo shots, and he has not performed all that well in the late innings of close games:
Situation Avg OBP Slg OPS AB H HR RBI -------------------------------------------------------- None On .277 .311 .424 .735 184 51 6 6 Runners On .292 .335 .424 .759 144 42 2 40 RISP .304 .343 .424 .767 92 28 0 36 RISP, 2 Outs .311 .380 .467 .847 45 14 0 5 Close and Late .261 .271 .326 .597 46 12 1 18
An earlier column also discussed that during the offseason, the Astros, Cardinals and Cubs all made similar acquisitions of mid-grade outfielders, with the Astros signing Wilson, the Cubs Jacque Jones and the Cardinals Juan Encarnacion. Here’s a side-by-side comparison of what they’ve done in 2006:
Player Avg OBP Slg OPS G 2B 3B HR R RBI BB ---------------------------------------------------------------- Wilson .283 .321 .422 .743 85 18 2 8 34 47 18 Jones .306 .336 .528 .864 81 19 0 15 37 45 12 Encarnacion .273 .304 .447 .751 84 15 4 11 43 46 13
The Cubs have gotten the best deal so far, not that it has mattered much since they’re on pace to lose almost 100 games. Meanwhile, Wilson and Encarnacion have been extremely comparable.
Overall, the Astros seem to have gotten what they bargained for with Wilson. Besides his decent bat, he appears to have developed well at playing Minute Maid Park’s quirky left field. A disappointing start out of the gate for Wilson has quietly turned into a solid acquisition by general manager Tim Purpura.