We would like to start this top 10 list with a brief recap of last year’s top 10. Our top 3 from last year, Burke, Astacio, and Taveras all made contributions to the big club. We all know what they did so we’ll move on. We don’t believe there were any surprises in our 4-10. Amongst our other highlights: We took a lot of flak from folks for excluding Einertson. But, we’re sorry to say we were right on him. His off-field problems caught up with him at the higher level. We were correct about Barthmaier, Gutierrez, and Sutil. We missed on Diaz, Maysonet, Jimerson, and Parraz.
This year’s top 10 sports 5 new faces. There was some shuffling of those repeating our list. You’ll find after the top 10 a list of lesser known players who we believe are one’s to watch.
1. Jason Hirsh: 2/20/1982. As we noted in last year’s Top 10 and more list, Hirsh needed to dominate a league for an entire year to move into our top 10, even our top 5. True to our word, after logging a Texas League Pitcher of the Year performance, Hirsh sits as our new #1 prospect. Hirsh logged 172 1/3 innings over 29 starts including 1 complete game. He recorded 165 strike outs and allowed 137 hits and 42 walks. His 4/1 strike out to walk ratio is outstanding as is the 1.04 WHIP in the hitter friendly Texas League. His 2.87 ERA was second in the league, missing the top spot by 0.01. He allowed Texas League hitters a .218 batting average against and a .604 OPS. Hirsh throws 4 quality pitches, a 4-seam fastball, 2-seam fastball, slider, and change. His fastball will sit in the low 90’s throughout the game though he will get it up to the mid-90’s when he wants. His slider was voted the best breaking pitch in the Texas League by the coaches. Still, he’ll work this season on tightening his slider and improving the consistency of his circle change. He averaged about 6 innings per start in 2005, and we’d like to see him move that closer to 6.5 or 7 in 2006. It looks as if Jason will be in an Astros uniform some time this season as long as he stays healthy and pitches effectively. We see him ultimately at or near the top of the Astros rotation.
2. Fernando Nieve: 7/15/1982. Nieve moves from #4 on our list to #2. Possessing the outstanding mid-90’s fastball, Fernando blew away Texas League hitters in the first half of the 2005 season. Over 14 starts he logged 85 innings and recorded 96 strike outs. He allowed 62 hits and 29 walks. He left the Texas League with a 2.65 ERA. Thanks to such a dominating first half of the season the Astros promoted Nieve to Round Rock. There he ran into a bit of trouble. Over 13 starts he recorded a 4.83 ERA in 82 innings. The strike outs were still there, 75, but he allowed 92 hits and 33 walks. Part of Nieve’s problem is that during the 2005 season his off-speed pitches were inconsistent, and where he could dominate Texas League hitters with his assortment, Pacific Coast League hitters weren’t so easy. He spent part of the off-season working on his slider and change-up. We are not sure how much those pitches have improved. One other note. Contrary to what has been reported elsewhere, we have confirmed Nieve does not throw a split-finger fastball. The grip on his change has the appearance of a splitter but acts as a change-up. The in consistency in his off-speed pitches have some wondering if Nieve isn’t destined to be member of the late-inning bullpen crew. If he can develop consistency in those pitches he’ll likely be in the starting rotation. Nieve will go into spring training with a shot at the Astros last bullpen spot.
3. Troy Patton: 9/3/1985. Patton moves from #10 to #3 thanks to some very effective pitching over the course of a mostly full 2005 season. Our top lefty possesses a low- to mid-90’s fastball, curveball, and change-up. He was clearly better than the South Atlantic League where he began the 2005 season. Over 15 starts Patton threw 78 2/3 innings. He struck out 94 while walking just 20. He gave up 59 hits and left with a 1.94 ERA. After the Sally League All-star break Patton was promoted to high-A Salem but was held out of competitive baseball for the first 3 weeks due to what was listed as shoulder tendonitis. After returning to the mound the Astros severely limited his work allowing him a pitch count of around 60. That meant he only worked about 4 innings per outing. However, over those innings, 41 in all, Patton struck out 38, walked 8, and gave up 34 hits. He finished the Carolina League with a 2.63 ERA. Troy will need to continue improving his off-speed pitches overall. He needs to demonstrate durability. His arm slot was inconsistent last year which could have contributed to his shoulder problem. We know he is trying to be more consistent with his arm slot and was discussing it at the 2006 Ryan camp. If the Astros want to move him aggressively they’ll likely have him in Corpus Christi to start the 2006 season. If the Astros prefer he work on his arm slot, durability, and off-speed pitches in a less pressure-filled environment, they’ll likely send him to Salem to start the season.
4. Taylor Buchholz: 10/13/81. Injuries and subsequent mediocrity over the past 2 seasons have kept Buchholz from progressing to the majors. Starting the 2005 season Buchholz was still recovering from arm problems. The Astros limited his work, but in late June, just as he appeared to be turning the corner, he was shut down due to shoulder stiffness. He came back in August but was used only in relief. Thanks to a lack of work during the AAA season the Astros decided to send Taylor to the extremely hitting rich Arizona Fall League. There, he posted a team best 1.57 ERA over 23 innings. He gave up 20 hits, 4 walks, and struck out 17. Most importantly, he demonstrated that his arm appears healthy. Buchholz has an outside shot of making the Astros out of spring training, but realistically we expect to see him at the top of the Express rotation with Hirsh.
5. Hunter Pence: 4/13/83. Pence moves from #8 to #5 and remains the Astros best hitting prospect. He spent the first half of 2005 destroying South Atlantic League pitching. Over 302 at bats, Pence hit 25 home runs with a .338 batting average and striking out just 53 times. Near the end of the first half of the season Pence suffered a left quadriceps strain. That forced him to miss 21 games in the outfield though he was allowed to DH before returning to the field. In late July he was promoted to Salem. After a slow start and still recovering from his leg injury, Pence posted a .305 batting average and slugged .490 over 151 at-bats. His strike out rate went up though as he K’d 37 times. Pence possesses a funky swing. He chokes up, has an open stance, and has a hitch in his swing. Still he’s been a successful hitter everywhere he’s been. His defense is mediocre. He has good speed and so can cover a good bit of ground. But, he doesn’t read the ball well and so doesn’t get the best jumps. He also has an average at best arm. Where ever the Astros have him playing the in the minors, he’s destined to be a left-fielder if he makes it to the majors. We expect him to start the 2006 season at AA Corpus Christi where he’ll need to prove that he can hit higher level pitching.
6. James Barthmaier: 1/6/1984. Barthmaier stepped onto the full-season stage in 2005 and did not disappoint. He finally put his talent to good use and recorded an excellent season at Lexington. He dominated South Atlantic League hitters holding them to a .220 batting average and .588 OPS. He threw 134 2/3 innings over 25 starts and struck out 142. He allowed 108 hits and 55 walks and finished with a 2.27 ERA. Barthmaier throws a low- to mid-90’s fastball, a good curveball, and change-up. He will be working on improving his control, improving his change-up, and developing his overall feel for pitching. He will start the season at Salem.
7. Brian Bogusevic: 2/18/1984. As we mentioned in last year’s top 10, we are hesitant to include anyone with only one year of short-season baseball. However, Bogusevic is an exception to that rule because the Astros still lack high level talent at the upper levels of their system, and he is an advanced left-handed pitcher who is likely on the fast-track to the majors. You can read how well Brian pitched at Tulane in last year’s draft review. The Astros thought Bogusevic might be tired after logging over 120 innings at Tulane and starting in right field when he wasn’t pitching. Statistically his work at Tri-City wasn’t good, but the point to him being on the mound at all was to start to get him acclimated to professional baseball. We understand he was a little star struck at the Ryan camp this year. Brian throws a low-90’s fastball, slider, and change-up. He’ll be working on consistency and improving his change-up. Some are concerned stamina may be a problem, but it’s just as likely he’ll be fine pitching only for an entire year without having to play the field. We’re not sure where Brian will start the season. He will either be in Lexington or Salem. Either way if he pitches effectively, we would not be surprised if he gets a mid-season call-up to the next highest level.
8. Juan Gutierrez: 7/14/1983. Gutierrez, like Barthmaier, moved to full-season baseball after 2 years at short-season ball. Gutierrez spent most of 2005 at Lexington where he amassed 127 2/3 innings. He gave up 106 hits and 43 walks while striking out 100. He throws a low- to mid-90’s fastball, curveball, and change. He will be working on improving his off-speed pitches this year. Also, there are stamina issues that he needs to work on. His mechanics tend to break down as he progresses through a game. Still, he’s got the stuff and intangibles to make it to the big leagues. He’s already on the 40-man roster and so should move quickly to the higher levels. We expect him to start the season at high-A Salem. With good work there a mid-season call-up to Corpus is not out of the question.
9. Matthew Albers: 1/20/1983. Albers drops from #7 to #9 thanks to a lackluster 2005 season. MO and other outlets have chronicled Albers’ drinking problems and suspension in 2004. So we won’t go into that here. However, our sources indicate he may still drinking though, but we do not know to what extent. His 2005 was a tale of two parts. The first part was marked by struggles with his command, consistency, and confidence. Over his first 98 2/3 innings, Albers had an ERA of 5.47, giving up 115 hits, 46 walks, and striking out 92. On July 28, his fortunes turned around. Over his final 8 starts, starting on the 28th, Albers threw 50 innings, giving up 46 hits, 16 walks, and striking out 54. His ERA over that time was 3.06. His 7th of those 8 starts was his only bad one going 5 innings and giving up 6 earned runs. Removing that start, his ERA from July 28 drops to 2.20. Needless to say at the end of July, Albers had worked out his mechanical difficulties and started getting his confidence back. Matt attended the Ryan camp this year, and no negative information was reported about him this year. Matt will start the season at AA Corpus Christi. If he keeps himself under control both on the field and off, we expect to see him pitch as he did at the end of last season.
10. Benjamin Zobrist: 5/26/1981. In last year’s top 10 we mentioned that Zobrist was too advanced a player for short-season baseball and though he hit well wasn’t included in our top 10. We also noted that he’d have to play well in Salem in 2005 to merit consideration as a top prospect. Well, he did, and so we do. Zobrist was assigned to Lexington out of spring training. He started the season slowly but came on quickly to finish that league with a .304 average. .415 OBP, and .413 slugging percentage. Thanks in part to some poor hitting middle infielders at Salem, one being Maysonet, Zobrist was promoted to Salem at the end of June. At Salem, Zobrist continued his hot hitting. He recorded a .333 batting average, .475 OBP, and a .496 slugging percentage. He was also solid defensively. Zobrist was also named to Team USA and played well against international competition in September. He’s got good range, good hands, and a good arm. His swing is solid but very flat. He’s a gap hitter who will hit an occasional home run. He appears to be athletic enough to play all the infield positions, and we wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros eventually used him as a Spiers type player. Ultimately, we see Ben as a big league utility player. Zobrist suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee during the season and was supposed to have surgery on it after last season. We’ve heard nothing about the surgery. In this case, no news is likely good news. He should start the season a AA Corpus Christi. Hitting well there should move him up the organization depth charts and perhaps give him a shot at the 25-man roster some time in 2007.
At this point we’d like to give you a list of players we believe are worth watching for a variety of reasons in 2006. This list is not an 11-20. Many who would make an 11-20 have been discussed at length in the Minor League Report forum and elsewhere and so won’t be listed but are most certainly ones to watch in 2006. Some of those players are: Luke Scott, Hector Gimenez, J. R. Towles, Felipe Paulino, Koby Clemens, Tommy Manzella, Josh Flores, Ralphie Henriquez, Eli Iorg, and Ryan Mitchell. Instead this list is of players who have not gotten much if any attention from most outlets. So, we wanted to bring them to your attention. This watch list is by no means exhaustive. Our watch list is in alphabetical order as we have no preference for any of the players.
Cliff Davis – Drafted in the same class as Barthmaier. Still has a good arm. Control and confidence are issues.
Paul Estrada – Closer. Attended the Ryan camp so he has the attention of the Astros brass.
Rene Frias – 18 year old lefty in Venezuela in 2005. Posted a 2.19 ERA. May be in Greeneville for 2006.
Billy Hart – Didn’t get much time in 2005 at Tri-City due to injury. Will have to change his swing to generate power. But is athletic enough to do so.
Tim Johnson – 2005 Rookie ball wasn’t kind. Has the ability to have a big season in 2006.
Ryan McKeller – Strong arm/little control. Has been in the system for a while. Was at Ryan camp. Needs to show he’s making improvement.
Mark McLemore – Most advanced lefty in the system. Arm injury in 2005 and subsequent surgery went fine. Back to healthy. On the 40-man roster. Could get a call-up in 2006.
Jordan Parraz – Drafted with Pence and Einertson. Still has a lot of talent. Needs to start hitting. May have some attitude issues.
Chad Reineke – Big arm. Improved control. Relieved and started last year. Was successful at both. Probably a late-inning reliever down the line.
Beau Torbert – Has some tools. Hit very well in 1/2 season at Lexington. Athletic enough to play all outfield positions.