In the market for big-league hitters leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, perhaps the most popular player supposedly for sale is Reds slugger Adam Dunn. This 25-year-old native Houstonian busted his 6-foot-6, 275-pound frame into baseball stardom by finishing tied for runner-up for the home run crown with 46 long balls in 2004, his fourth season in the league. Dunn also gained notoriety by fanning 195 times, breaking Bobby Bonds’ 1970 record of 189 strikeouts.
Besides swatting the ball over the fence, power hitters like Dunn tend to do two other things: strike out and draw walks. The prototype for this kind of player, Babe Ruth, finished his career as the all-time leader in strikeouts and walks in addition to home runs. Dunn is an extreme of this brand of hitter, and this extremism has caused some doubt of the value of a slugger who posts a low batting average and swings and misses a lot.
This is because Dunn and his mashing cohorts are also supposed to be the cog in the line-up that drives in runs. With Dunn it seems like one of three things is generally going to happen: a homer, a walk or a strikeout. Only one of those outcomes pushes a run home (with the exception of a bases-loaded walk, which has happened for Dunn just once this season).
Assessing whether Dunn’s strikeouts make him ineffective as an RBI man requires taking a look at more than just how many runs he has driven in. Dunn is stuck in the lowly Cincinnati line-up, where RBI opportunities come less often than in the batting orders of stronger teams. In order to test the Dunn-ineffectiveness theory, I looked up the number of RBI chances had by each of the players in the top 20 in home runs in 2005.
Despite being tied for sixth with 24 homers, Dunn is dead last in this group with 54 RBI:
Player HR Player RBI ---------------- ----------------- D. Lee 28 M. Ramirez 84 A. Jones 27 D. Ortiz 83 A. Rodriguez 26 A. Rodriguez 77 M. Ensberg 25 C. Lee 77 M. Teixeira 25 M. Teixeira 74 ---------------- ----------------- A. Dunn 24 D. Lee 73 M. Ramirez 24 G. Sheffield 73 A. Pujols 23 P. Burrell 72 D. Ortiz 23 A. Pujols 71 C. Lee 23 A. Jones 68 ---------------- ----------------- A. Soriano 22 M. Ensberg 67 C. Floyd 22 R. Sexson 67 A. Ramirez 21 A. Ramirez 62 K. Griffey 20 M. Tejada 62 P. Konerko 20 K. Griffey 61 ---------------- ----------------- R. Sexson 20 A. Soriano 57 T. Glaus 20 T. Glaus 57 P. Burrell 20 P. Konerko 56 G. Sheffield 19 C. Floyd 55 M. Tejada 19 A. Dunn 54 ---------------- ----------------- Average 23 Average 68
And this is not purely opportunities-driven. Dunn ranks 14th in this group with 236 runners having been aboard when Dunn came to the plate. (His teammate, Ken Griffey Jr., is 13th with 240 runners on.) And Dunn is 17th with 117 runners in scoring position.
Player Runners Player RISP --------------------- ------------------ A. Rodriguez 299 A. Jones 160 A. Jones 294 A. Rodriguez 156 C. Lee 291 C. Lee 155 P. Burrell 291 P. Burrell 150 D. Ortiz 289 M. Ramirez 145 --------------------- ------------------ M. Ramirez 286 D. Ortiz 138 T. Glaus 271 M. Tejada 137 M. Teixeira 266 T. Glaus 135 A. Pujols 261 G. Sheffield 128 M. Tejada 255 R. Sexson 127 --------------------- ------------------ G. Sheffield 254 A. Pujols 126 R. Sexson 244 M. Teixeira 124 K. Griffey 240 M. Ensberg 121 A. Dunn 236 A. Ramirez 121 M. Ensberg 235 P. Konerko 121 --------------------- ------------------ A. Soriano 234 D. Lee 119 A. Ramirez 232 A. Dunn 117 P. Konerko 228 C. Floyd 117 C. Floyd 213 K. Griffey 113 D. Lee 206 A. Soriano 111 --------------------- ------------------ Average 256 Average 131
Thus, Dunn is 20th in RBIs despite being better than 20th in chances. In fact, Dunn is dead last among the 20 in percentage of runners driven in. Dunn has plated 12.7 percent of those runners.
Player Runners RBI Pct --------------------------------- D. Lee 206 45 21.8% G. Sheffield 254 54 21.3% M. Ramirez 286 60 21.0% D. Ortiz 289 60 20.8% R. Sexson 244 47 19.3% --------------------------------- C. Lee 291 54 18.6% M. Teixeira 266 49 18.4% A. Pujols 261 48 18.4% M. Ensberg 235 42 17.9% P. Burrell 291 52 17.9% --------------------------------- A. Ramirez 232 41 17.7% K. Griffey 240 41 17.1% A. Rodriguez 299 51 17.1% M. Tejada 255 43 16.9% P. Konerko 228 36 15.8% --------------------------------- C. Floyd 213 33 15.5% A. Soriano 234 35 15.0% A. Jones 294 41 13.9% T. Glaus 271 37 13.7% A. Dunn 236 30 12.7% --------------------------------- Average 256 45 17.5%
That looks bad for Dunn, but how big is this effect? As a group, the top 20 home run hitters average 256 runners on base and 45 of those runners driven in, a 17.5-percent rate of success. With the same number of runners as Dunn, a slugger at the group average might drive in 42 runners, 12 more than Dunn has. That strikes me as significant.
But you cannot ignore the runs a slugger scores on his own home runs when evaluating him. After all, an RBI man’s job is to drive in runs, and there is no reason driving in himself should be excluded. All of these hitters get a large share of their RBIs by driving themselves in on home runs. Dunn’s own scoring on his home runs accounts for 44.4 percent of his RBIs. But even the lowest in this measure, Gary Sheffield, gets 26 percent of his RBIs from driving in himself on homers:
Player HR RBI Pct ---------------------------- A. Dunn 24 54 44.4% C. Floyd 22 55 40.0% A. Jones 27 68 39.7% A. Soriano 22 57 38.6% D. Lee 28 73 38.4% ---------------------------- M. Ensberg 25 67 37.3% P. Konerko 20 56 35.7% T. Glaus 20 57 35.1% A. Ramirez 21 62 33.9% M. Teixeira 25 74 33.8% ---------------------------- A. Rodriguez 26 77 33.8% K. Griffey 20 61 32.8% A. Pujols 23 71 32.4% M. Tejada 19 62 30.6% C. Lee 23 77 29.9% ---------------------------- R. Sexson 20 67 29.9% M. Ramirez 24 84 28.6% P. Burrell 20 72 27.8% D. Ortiz 23 83 27.7% G. Sheffield 19 73 26.0% ---------------------------- Average 19 68 33.4%
So, does counting all of his RBI opportunities (all of the runners on base when he bats, plus all of his own plate appearances), move Dunn up the RBI-effectiveness list at all?
Player PA Runners RBIOpp RBI Pct ---------------------------------------------- M. Ramirez 371 286 657 84 12.8% D. Lee 385 206 591 73 12.4% D. Ortiz 401 289 690 83 12.0% G. Sheffield 385 254 639 73 11.4% C. Lee 396 291 687 77 11.2% ---------------------------------------------- M. Ensberg 364 235 599 67 11.2% A. Rodriguez 399 299 698 77 11.0% R. Sexson 364 244 608 67 11.0% P. Burrell 365 291 656 72 11.0% M. Teixeira 410 266 676 74 10.9% ---------------------------------------------- A. Pujols 402 261 663 71 10.7% A. Ramirez 359 232 591 62 10.5% K. Griffey 367 240 607 61 10.0% A. Jones 392 294 686 68 9.9% C. Floyd 352 213 565 55 9.7% ---------------------------------------------- M. Tejada 393 255 648 62 9.6% A. Soriano 376 234 610 57 9.3% P. Konerko 376 228 604 56 9.3% A. Dunn 371 236 607 54 8.9% T. Glaus 375 271 646 57 8.8% ---------------------------------------------- Average 380 256 636 68 10.6%
Dunn moves up slightly, past Troy Glaus. But he still remains at the bottom of the pack. Does this mean that Dunn is indeed an ineffective RBI man, at least relative to his long-ball-launching peers?
A couple of other observations must be made in Dunn’s favor. First, among the 20, Dunn has the second-lowest percentage of outs made with runners on. In his 164 plate appearances with runners on base, Dunn has made 88 outs, or 53.7 percent. Second, this corresponds to a .463 OBP with runners on base, second only to Sheffield’s .481:
Player PA Outs Pct OBP ------------------------------------ G. Sheffield 189 98 51.9% .481 A. Dunn 164 88 53.7% .463 D. Lee 161 87 54.0% .460 A. Pujols 190 110 57.9% .421 D. Ortiz 200 117 58.5% .415 ------------------------------------ M. Ramirez 192 114 59.4% .406 M. Ensberg 168 100 59.5% .405 A. Rodriguez 213 127 59.6% .404 A. Ramirez 174 104 59.8% .402 M. Teixeira 197 118 59.9% .401 ------------------------------------ R. Sexson 181 109 60.2% .398 P. Burrell 199 120 60.3% .397 K. Griffey 176 108 61.4% .386 M. Tejada 187 115 61.5% .385 C. Floyd 158 101 63.9% .361 ------------------------------------ A. Jones 209 134 64.1% .359 C. Lee 208 134 64.4% .356 P. Konerko 178 117 65.7% .343 T. Glaus 192 127 66.1% .339 A. Soriano 166 119 71.7% .283 ------------------------------------ Average 185 112 60.7% .373
This is because Dunn is most likely among the 20 to draw a walk with runners on. In fact, far more likely — Dunn has drawn walks in 25.6 of his plate appearances with runners on. Sheffield is a distant second at 16.9 percent:
Player PA BB Pct ---------------------------- A. Dunn 164 42 25.6% G. Sheffield 189 32 16.9% D. Lee 161 26 16.1% A. Pujols 190 29 15.3% M. Ensberg 168 25 14.9% ---------------------------- P. Burrell 199 27 13.6% A. Jones 209 28 13.4% T. Glaus 192 25 13.0% R. Sexson 181 23 12.7% D. Ortiz 200 25 12.5% ---------------------------- C. Lee 208 25 12.0% P. Konerko 178 21 11.8% A. Rodriguez 213 25 11.7% C. Floyd 158 18 11.4% K. Griffey 176 20 11.4% ---------------------------- M. Teixeira 197 21 10.7% M. Ramirez 192 20 10.4% A. Ramirez 174 17 9.8% M. Tejada 187 13 7.0% A. Soriano 166 5 3.0% ---------------------------- Average 185 23 12.6%
Now, it may seem of little value for Dunn to draw walks when runners are waiting for him to drive them in, but there are some important things to consider. For instance, other teams may be more likely to walk Dunn in the Reds batting order than they would were Dunn playing in a better line-up. Dunn is near the top in terms of intentional walks with runners on:
Player PA IBB Pct --------------------------- A. Pujols 190 11 5.8% D. Lee 161 9 5.6% A. Dunn 164 7 4.3% M. Tejada 187 7 3.7% G. Sheffield 189 6 3.2% --------------------------- M. Ensberg 168 5 3.0% C. Lee 208 6 2.9% A. Jones 209 6 2.9% A. Rodriguez 213 6 2.8% P. Konerko 178 5 2.8% --------------------------- C. Floyd 158 4 2.5% R. Sexson 181 4 2.2% M. Ramirez 192 3 1.6% D. Ortiz 200 3 1.5% A. Ramirez 174 2 1.1% --------------------------- K. Griffey 176 2 1.1% M. Teixeira 197 2 1.0% P. Burrell 199 2 1.0% A. Soriano 166 1 0.6% T. Glaus 192 0 0.0% --------------------------- Average 185 5 2.5%
But this only explains a handful of Dunn’s walks with runners on. Dunn draws unintentional walks with runners on much more frequently than anyone else in the 20 (some of these could also be of the intentional-unintentional variety, of course):
Player PA UBB Pct ----------------------------- A. Dunn 164 35 21.3% G. Sheffield 189 26 13.8% T. Glaus 192 25 13.0% P. Burrell 199 25 12.6% M. Ensberg 168 20 11.9% ----------------------------- D. Ortiz 200 22 11.0% D. Lee 161 17 10.6% A. Jones 209 22 10.5% R. Sexson 181 19 10.5% K. Griffey 176 18 10.2% ----------------------------- M. Teixeira 197 19 9.6% A. Pujols 190 18 9.5% C. Lee 208 19 9.1% P. Konerko 178 16 9.0% A. Rodriguez 213 19 8.9% ----------------------------- C. Floyd 158 14 8.9% M. Ramirez 192 17 8.9% A. Ramirez 174 15 8.6% M. Tejada 187 6 3.2% A. Soriano 166 4 2.4% ----------------------------- Average 185 19 10.2%
Is this a detriment to Dunn? Even if he were traded and continued to draw walks, the solution would ideally be to work the batting order around Dunn, allowing another hitter the opportunity to drive him in. The value of not making outs and reaching base is often overlooked, especially for a power hitter like Dunn. Dunn excels at keeping the inning alive with runners on base, thereby expanding his team’s chances to score runs.
And if the team fails to take advantage of the fact that Dunn, despite his massive strike zone, is walked with runners on base, how is Dunn to blame for that?
In fact, if you exclude occasions where pitchers avoided Dunn by walking him, Dunn is not such a bad RBI man after all, driving in runs in 11.4 percent of opportunities:
Player AB Runners RBIOpp RBI Opp% ---------------------------------------------- M. Ramirez 320 246 566 84 14.8% D. Lee 333 166 499 73 14.6% D. Ortiz 348 247 595 83 13.9% G. Sheffield 325 200 525 73 13.9% M. Ensberg 309 194 503 67 13.3% ---------------------------------------------- P. Burrell 313 239 552 72 13.0% A. Rodriguez 340 255 595 77 12.9% R. Sexson 313 212 525 67 12.8% C. Lee 353 254 607 77 12.7% A. Pujols 347 216 563 71 12.6% ---------------------------------------------- M. Teixeira 369 232 601 74 12.3% A. Jones 340 248 588 68 11.6% A. Ramirez 331 213 544 62 11.4% A. Dunn 297 177 474 54 11.4% K. Griffey 324 213 537 61 11.4% ---------------------------------------------- C. Floyd 313 186 499 55 11.0% P. Konerko 325 200 525 56 10.7% M. Tejada 362 233 595 62 10.4% T. Glaus 322 228 550 57 10.4% A. Soriano 354 218 572 57 10.0% ---------------------------------------------- Average 331 218 550 67 12.3%
By the way, while Dunn has the third-highest strikeout percentage with runners on base — 23.2 percent — he also has the second-lowest percentage of double-plays in double play opportunities. In 69 plate appearances where the double play is in order, Dunn has grounded into just two:
Player PA SO Pct Player Opp GDP Pct ---------------------------- ---------------------------- T. Glaus 192 54 28.1% R. Sexson 65 10 15.4% R. Sexson 181 44 24.3% M. Tejada 69 10 14.5% A. Dunn 164 38 23.2% A. Jones 76 10 13.2% M. Ensberg 168 38 22.6% M. Ramirez 90 11 12.2% P. Burrell 199 45 22.6% P. Konerko 60 7 11.7% ---------------------------- ---------------------------- A. Soriano 166 32 19.3% A. Pujols 86 9 10.5% C. Floyd 158 29 18.4% M. Ensberg 61 6 9.8% A. Rodriguez 213 38 17.8% D. Lee 54 5 9.3% K. Griffey 176 31 17.6% D. Ortiz 87 8 9.2% D. Lee 161 28 17.4% P. Burrell 80 7 8.8% ---------------------------- ---------------------------- M. Ramirez 192 31 16.1% M. Teixeira 80 7 8.8% A. Jones 209 33 15.8% A. Ramirez 67 5 7.5% C. Lee 208 32 15.4% A. Rodriguez 85 6 7.1% P. Konerko 178 27 15.2% K. Griffey 86 6 7.0% M. Teixeira 197 26 13.2% C. Lee 76 5 6.6% ---------------------------- ---------------------------- D. Ortiz 200 24 12.0% G. Sheffield 92 6 6.5% A. Pujols 190 22 11.6% A. Soriano 72 4 5.6% M. Tejada 187 21 11.2% C. Floyd 52 2 3.8% A. Ramirez 174 15 8.6% A. Dunn 69 2 2.9% G. Sheffield 189 16 8.5% T. Glaus 70 2 2.9% ---------------------------- ---------------------------- Average 185 31 16.9% Average 73 6 8.7%
Not making outs, getting on base and not hitting into a rally-killer seem like pretty good reasons to have Dunn around, strikeouts be damned. Whether that makes him worth the Reds’ reported asking price is another matter. As the trade deadline approaches, however, Cincinnati may become more reasonable if the Reds really want to move him.