What a difference seven weeks makes. Defying predictions that their season was effectively over and inane rumors that Roger Clemens would soon return to pinstripes, the Astros spent June and the first half of July clawing their way to a 44-43 record, second place in the Central Division and third place and just five games back for the wild card.
The team bottomed out on May 24 with a 4-2 loss at Wrigley Field, capping a seven-game losing streak. At 15-30, last place in the Central Division and just two games ahead of the worst record in baseball, chances looked slim that the Astros would compete for anything other than staying out of the cellar.
Houston started its long climb back to respectability the next day and is 29-13 since then, the best record in the majors. Trailing the Astros over that span are Washington (28-14), Oakland (27-16), St. Louis (27-16), the White Sox (25-15), Cleveland (27-17) and the Angels (26-17). That company includes four division leaders.
Reversal of Fortunes
The first half of the season was a tale of two offenses, with the Astros jumping from close to or dead last in April and May in the most important categories to the top half in baseball in June and July:
Span R/G Rank Avg Rank OBP Rank Slg Rank HR% Rank --------------------------------------------------------------------- April-May 3.57 30th .239 30th .306 29th .377 29th 2.27 27th June-July 4.95 11th .272 14th .336 12th .442 12th 3.48 11th
The conventional wisdom is that excellent Astros pitching early in the season was wasted with poor offense. In fact, even the pitching staff as a whole was merely average in April and May. Surprising as it may sound, Houston’s hurlers in June and July experienced an improvement comparable in magnitude to the offensive turnaround:
Span ERA Rank H/9 Rank BB/9 Rank HR/9 Rank SO/9 Rank --------------------------------------------------------------------- April-May 4.34 18th 8.93 15th 2.78 6th 1.12 24th 7.49 2nd June-July 3.25 3rd 8.39 2nd 2.89 11th 0.72 1st 7.51 3rd
While its walks rate rose somewhat, the staff maintained its strikeout rate while getting its hits and home runs allowed under control. This shaved more than a run per game off the team ERA. The result is that the Astros vs. their opponents, which was a mismatch in April and May, has gone the other way since then:
April-May R/G Avg OBP Slg HR% --------------------------------------- Astros 3.57 .239 .306 .377 2.27 Opponents 4.49 .259 .321 .422 3.24
June-July R/G Avg OBP Slg HR% --------------------------------------- Astros 4.95 .272 .336 .442 3.48 Opponents 3.60 .246 .310 .372 2.09
Viewed another way, Houston pitchers in June and July have made Astros opponents look as bad as the Houston offense was in April and May:
Comparison R/G Avg OBP Slg HR% ------------------------------------------------- April-May Astros 3.57 .239 .306 .377 2.27 June-July Opponents 3.60 .246 .310 .372 2.09
Meanwhile, the Houston offense in June and July has looked better than opponents were against the Astros in April and May:
Comparison R/G Avg OBP Slg HR% ------------------------------------------------- April-May Opponents 4.49 .259 .321 .422 3.24 June-July Astros 4.95 .272 .336 .442 3.48
That explains twice as many losses as wins in April and May and more than twice as many wins as losses in June and July.
Starters
The offensive reversal has been almost throughout the line-up. Only Brad Ausmus has seen his performance decline, while Craig Biggio has remained about the same. Everybody else has improved significantly:
Pos Player Avg OBP Slg Span ------------------------------------------ C Ausmus .250 .325 .296 April-May .228 .330 .291 June-July ------------------------------------------ 1B Berkman .234 .337 .325 April-May .331 .435 .538 June-July ------------------------------------------ 2B Biggio .284 .342 .514 April-May .293 .362 .474 June-July ------------------------------------------ 3B Ensberg .276 .383 .515 April-May .306 .392 .694 June-July ------------------------------------------ SS Everett .224 .282 .394 April-May .280 .324 .409 June-July ------------------------------------------ LF Burke .222 .271 .244 April-May .232 .292 .320 June-July ------------------------------------------ CF Taveras .250 .299 .333 April-May .354 .373 .424 June-July ------------------------------------------ RF Lane .218 .268 .391 April-May .254 .301 .566 June-July
Even with improvement, the Astros are still lacking with Chris Burke in left field. More on that in a moment.
Bench
Off the bench, Orlando Palmeiro and Eric Bruntlett seem to have caught the wave as well, while Raul Chavez, Mike Lamb and Jose Vizcaino appear to have missed the team meeting where the purple pills were distributed:
Pos Player Avg OBP Slg Span ------------------------------------------ OF Palmeiro .316 .375 .421 April-May .286 .340 .595 June-July ------------------------------------------ IF Bruntlett .160 .250 .280 April-May .222 .364 .444 June-July ------------------------------------------ C Chavez .210 .222 .258 April-May .125 .185 .375 June-July ------------------------------------------ IF Lamb .202 .257 .380 April-May .256 .275 .282 June-July ------------------------------------------ IF Vizcaino .239 .301 .358 April-May .207 .281 .207 June-July
Even with Burke’s improvement, the Astros still have a hole to fill in left field. The Astros remain among the weakest teams in the majors at a position traditionally counted on to provide offense. Counting on Burke to get better is iffy, and playing Palmeiro every day reduces what little strength Houston currently has on the bench given Lamb and Vizcaino’s struggles.
The lucky thing for the Astros is that any decent, available hitter who can player first base or left field should fill their needs. This beats needing to find a respectable hitter who plays a more specialized and demanding defensive position. General Manager Tim Purpura has indicated that the team will make a move for a hitter if the right deal comes along.
Rotation
The Astros may also be in the market for a pitcher, and while the bullpen could certainly use another middle reliever or set-up man, the fifth spot in the rotation is cause for concern as well:
Pitcher ERA H/9 BB/9 HR/9 SO/9 Span -------------------------------------------------- Backe 4.67 9.59 2.40 0.88 5.43 April-May 5.77 9.46 6.92 1.62 6.69 June-July -------------------------------------------------- Clemens 1.30 5.33 2.37 0.36 9.00 April-May 1.76 7.24 2.74 0.39 7.04 June-July -------------------------------------------------- Oswalt 3.23 8.00 2.51 0.84 6.69 April-May 1.34 7.61 1.04 0.30 5.82 June-July -------------------------------------------------- Pettitte 3.71 9.29 2.00 0.71 6.00 April-May 2.27 8.31 0.94 0.38 7.17 June-July -------------------------------------------------- No. 5 9.91 12.63 2.53 3.30 7.38 April-May 7.16 11.66 5.11 1.84 6.95 June-July
Clemens has remained strong, actually “slumping” a little since June 1, while Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte have turned from steady to dominating. In June and July, the top three spots in the rotation have combined for the following:
Pitcher GS IP W L ERA H/9 BB/9 HR/9 SO/9 ------------------------------------------------------ Nos. 1-3 22 154 14 3 1.75 7.71 1.52 0.35 6.60
If the trio stays healthy and consistent and the Astros make the playoffs, it could do great damage in a five- or seven-game series. Clemens, Oswalt and Pettitte are the key reason the Astros lead the majors with 57 quality starts. The three of them own 45 of those and have failed to yield a quality start in just nine games.
Brandon Backe has performed tolerably at No. 4 but would make a better No. 5. In June and July, Backe has walked 30 batters in 39 innings, and Wandy Rodriguez has walked 24 batters in 38 innings. Their combined ratio of 57 strikeouts to 54 walks (1.06) pales in comparison to the 113-to-26 (4.35) ratio of the big three. Finding some control is imperative for Backe and Rodriguez (or whomever else pitches fifth in the rotation) to contribute down the stretch.
Bullpen
The bullpen has shown bright spots besides the sublime Brad Lidge. Lidge continues striking out batters at a ridiculous rate. Indeed, Lidge has struck out more than a third (57) of the batters he has faced (158). But Dan Wheeler has been extremely effective as well, holding batters to a ludicrously low 4.60 hits per nine innings in June and July (a .151 opponents’ batting average over that span). The Astros have also seen Chad Qualls and Russ Springer turn their performances around as of late:
Pitcher ERA H/9 BB/9 HR/9 SO/9 Span --------------------------------------------------- Franco 7.04 12.91 7.04 0.00 9.39 April-May 7.36 14.73 3.68 0.00 9.82 June-July --------------------------------------------------- Harville 6.23 9.69 9.00 2.08 9.69 April-May 6.30 12.60 4.50 0.90 6.30 June-July --------------------------------------------------- Lidge 3.13 8.61 3.52 1.17 14.09 April-May 1.29 7.71 2.57 0.00 13.50 June-July --------------------------------------------------- Qualls 5.55 11.84 2.22 0.37 5.55 April-May 1.56 7.27 1.56 0.52 9.87 June-July --------------------------------------------------- Springer 8.62 9.77 5.17 1.72 9.19 April-May 2.30 4.02 1.72 1.15 9.19 June-July --------------------------------------------------- Wheeler 1.59 6.35 2.78 1.19 7.94 April-May 1.72 4.60 1.72 0.00 10.34 June-July
Chad Harville has reduced his walks and home runs since April and May, but a big increase in hits and fall in strikeouts have not helped his or the Astros’ cause. John Franco pretty much forced the Astros’ hand. He was still striking out batters, but the overall results were poor.
One more trusty reliever (preferably a lefty) to get the ball to Lidge, in case Wheeler, Qualls and Springer falter, would be good insurance for a bullpen that has been called on for the fewest innings in the majors and possesses baseball’s highest strikeout rate (9.27, vs. 8.84 for the second-ranked Cubs).
So the Astros go to battle in the second half with the confidence of having played better than anyone else in the game for almost two months. The challenge of 11 road games in 10 days, with seven games against first-place St. Louis and Washington, will be a good test for the Astros, but it should not be determinative either way.
Their 75 remaining games are a long time for the Astros to make the leap at the wild-card-leading Braves or even, improbably, the division-leading Cardinals, or to falter back to the pack. They have shown that they are a better team than April and May suggested.
Because their improvement has been virtually across the board, they are not prone to slumps out of one or two players causing their season to unravel. Nonetheless, upgrades in left field and to the back of the rotation and the middle of the bullpen would go a long way toward helping the Astros continue to demonstrate that they are a contender.